A Complexity Based Model for Quantifying Forensic Evidential Probabilities

An operational complexity model (OCM) is proposed to enable the complexity of both the cognitive and the computational components of a process to be determined. From the complexity of formation of a set of traces via a specified route a measure of the probability of that route can be determined. By determining the complexities of alternative routes leading to the formation of the same set of traces, the odds ratio indicating the relative plausibility of the alternative routes can be found. An illustrative application to a BitTorrent piracy case is presented, and the results obtained suggest that the OCM is capable of providing a realistic estimate of the odds ratio for two competing hypotheses. It is also demonstrated that the OCM can be straightforwardly refined to encompass a variety of circumstances.

Principles of High Quality Documentation for Provenance: A Philosophical Discussion

Computer technology enables the creation of detailed documentation about the processes that create or affect entities (data, objects, etc.). Such documentation of the past can be used to answer various kinds of questions regarding the processes that led to the creation or modification of a particular entity. The answer to such questions is known as an entity's provenance. In this paper, we derive a number of principles for documenting the past, grounded in work from philosophy and history, which allow for provenance questions to be answered within a computational context. These principles lead us to argue that an interaction-based model is particularly suited for representing high quality documentation of the past.