Uncertainty quantification for wind farm power generation

Accurate forecasting of wind farm power generation is essential for successful operation and management of wind farms and to minimize risks associated with their integration into energy systems. However, due to the inherent wind intermittency, wind power forecasts are highly prone to error and often far from being perfect. The purpose of this paper is to develop statistical methods for quantifying uncertainties associated with wind power generation forecasts. Prediction intervals (PIs) with a prescribed confidence level are constructed using the delta and bootstrap methods for neural network forecasts. The moving block bootstrap method is applied to preserve the correlation structure in wind power observations. The effectiveness and efficiency of these two methods for uncertainty quantification is examined using two month datasets taken from a wind farm in Australia. It is demonstrated that while all constructed PIs are theoretically valid, bootstrap PIs are more informative than delta PIs, and are therefore more useful for decision-making.

Wind farm power uncertainty quantification using a mean-variance estimation method

This paper proposes an innovative optimized parametric method for construction of prediction intervals (PIs) for uncertainty quantification. The mean-variance estimation (MVE) method employs two separate neural network (NN) models to estimate the mean and variance of targets. A new training method is developed in this study that adjusts parameters of NN models through minimization of a PI-based cost functions. A simulated annealing method is applied for minimization of the nonlinear non-differentiable cost function. The performance of the proposed method for PI construction is examined using monthly data sets taken from a wind farm in Australia. PIs for the wind farm power generation are constructed with five confidence levels between 50% and 90%. Demonstrated results indicate that valid PIs constructed using the optimized MVE method have a quality much better than the traditional MVE-based PIs.

Prediction intervals for short-term wind farm power generation forecasts

Quantification of uncertainties associated with wind power generation forecasts is essential for optimal management of wind farms and their successful integration into power systems. This paper investigates two neural network-based methods for direct and rapid construction of prediction intervals (PIs) for short-term forecasting of power generation in wind farms. The lower upper bound estimation and bootstrap methods are used to quantify uncertainties associated with forecasts. The effectiveness and efficiency of these two general methods for uncertainty quantification is examined using twenty four month data from a wind farm in Australia. PIs with a confidence level of 90% are constructed for four forecasting horizons: five, ten, fifteen, and thirty minutes. Quantitative measures are applied for objective evaluation and unbiased comparison of PI quality. Demonstrated results indicate that reliable PIs can be constructed in a short time without resorting to complicate computational methods or models. Also quantitative comparison reveals that bootstrap PIs are more suitable for short prediction horizon, and lower upper bound estimation PIs are more appropriate for longer forecasting horizons.

Prediction interval estimation for wind farm power generation forecasts using support vector machines

Accurate forecasting of wind power generation is quite an important as well as challenging task for the system operators and market participants due to its high uncertainty. It is essential to quantify uncertainties associated with wind power generation forecasts for their efficient application in optimal management of wind farms and integration into power systems. Prediction intervals (PIs) are well known statistical tools which are used to quantify the uncertainty related to forecasts by estimating the ranges of the future target variables. This paper investigates the application of a novel support vector machine based methodology to directly estimate the lower and upper bounds of the PIs without expensive computational burden and inaccurate assumptions about the distribution of the data. The efficiency of the method for uncertainty quantification is examined using monthly data from a wind farm in Australia. PIs for short term application are generated with a confidence level of 90%. Experimental results confirm the ability of the method in constructing reliable PIs without resorting to complex computational methods.

Short-term load and wind power forecasting using neural network-based prediction intervals

Electrical power systems are evolving from today's centralized bulk systems to more decentralized systems. Penetrations of renewable energies, such as wind and solar power, significantly increase the level of uncertainty in power systems. Accurate load forecasting becomes more complex, yet more important for management of power systems. Traditional methods for generating point forecasts of load demands cannot properly handle uncertainties in system operations. To quantify potential uncertainties associated with forecasts, this paper implements a neural network (NN)-based method for the construction of prediction intervals (PIs). A newly introduced method, called lower upper bound estimation (LUBE), is applied and extended to develop PIs using NN models. A new problem formulation is proposed, which translates the primary multiobjective problem into a constrained single-objective problem. Compared with the cost function, this new formulation is closer to the primary problem and has fewer parameters. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) integrated with the mutation operator is used to solve the problem. Electrical demands from Singapore and New South Wales (Australia), as well as wind power generation from Capital Wind Farm, are used to validate the PSO-based LUBE method. Comparative results show that the proposed method can construct higher quality PIs for load and wind power generation forecasts in a short time.

An optimized mean variance estimation method for uncertainty quantification of wind power forecasts

A statistical optimized technique for rapid development of reliable prediction intervals (PIs) is presented in this study. The mean-variance estimation (MVE) technique is employed here for quantification of uncertainties related with wind power predictions. In this method, two separate neural network models are used for estimation of wind power generation and its variance. A novel PI-based training algorithm is also presented to enhance the performance of the MVE method and improve the quality of PIs. For an in-depth analysis, comprehensive experiments are conducted with seasonal datasets taken from three geographically dispersed wind farms in Australia. Five confidence levels of PIs are between 50% and 90%. Obtained results show while both traditional and optimized PIs are hypothetically valid, the optimized PIs are much more informative than the traditional MVE PIs. The informativeness of these PIs paves the way for their application in trouble-free operation and smooth integration of wind farms into energy systems. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A novel fuzzy multi-objective framework to construct optimal prediction intervals for wind power forecast

The forecasting behavior of the high volatile and unpredictable wind power energy has always been a challenging issue in the power engineering area. In this regard, this paper proposes a new multi-objective framework based on fuzzy idea to construct optimal prediction intervals (Pis) to forecast wind power generation more sufficiently. The proposed method makes it possible to satisfy both the PI coverage probability (PICP) and PI normalized average width (PINAW), simultaneously. In order to model the stochastic and nonlinear behavior of the wind power samples, the idea of lower upper bound estimation (LUBE) method is used here. Regarding the optimization tool, an improved version of particle swam optimization (PSO) is proposed. In order to see the feasibility and satisfying performance of the proposed method, the practical data of a wind farm in Australia is used as the case study.

Hybrid technique of ant colony and particle swarm optimization for short term wind energy forecasting

Wind farms are producing a considerable portion of the world renewable energy. Since the output power of any wind farm is highly dependent on the wind speed, the power extracted from a wind park is not always a constant value. In order to have a non-disruptive supply of electricity, it is important to have a good scheduling and forecasting system for the energy output of any wind park. In this paper, a new hybrid swarm technique (HAP) is used to forecast the energy output of a real wind farm located in Binaloud, Iran. The technique consists of the hybridization of the ant colony optimization (ACO) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) which are two meta-heuristic techniques under the category of swarm intelligence. The hybridization of the two algorithms to optimize the forecasting model leads to a higher quality result with a faster convergence profile. The empirical hourly wind power output of Binaloud Wind Farm for 364 days is collected and used to train and test the prepared model. The meteorological data consisting of wind speed and ambient temperature is used as the inputs to the mathematical model. The results indicate that the proposed technique can estimate the output wind power based on the wind speed and the ambient temperature with an MAPE of 3.513%.

A brief review on offshore wind turbine fault detection and recent development in condition monitoring based maintenance system

Offshore wind turbine requires more systematized operation and maintenance strategies to ensure systems are harmless, profitable and cost-effective. Condition monitoring and fault diagnostic systems ominously plays an important role in offshore wind turbine in order to cut down maintenance and operational costs. Condition monitoring techniques which describing complex faults and failure mode types and their generated traceable signs to provide cost-effective condition monitoring and predictive maintenance and their diagnostic schemes. Continuously monitor the condition of critical parts are the most efficient way to improve reliability of wind turbine. Implementation of Condition Based Maintenance (CBM) strategy provides right time maintenance decisions and Predictive Health Monitoring (PHM) data to overcome breakdown and machine downtime. Fault detection and CBM implementation is challenging for off shore wind farm due to the complexity of remote sensing, components health and predictive assessment, data collection, data analysis, data handling, state recognition, and advisory decision. The rapid expansion of wind farms, advanced technological development and harsh installation sites needs a successful CM approach. This paper aims to review brief status of recent development of CM techniques and focusing with major faults takes place in gear box and bearing, rotor and blade, pitch, yaw and tower system and generator and control system.

Stability enhancement of DFIG wind turbine using LQR pitch control over rated wind speed

A novel pitch control design method is proposed for the doubly fed induction generator (DFIG) wind turbine (WT) using linear quadratic regulator (LQR). A seven-order model represents the DFIG WT which is linearized by truncated Taylor series expansion. A systematic approach is adopted to determine the weighting matrices in LQR design for the optimal solution. Simulations have been carried out to compare the performance of the proposed LQR pitch control method against a PI pitch control for small and large disturbances. It is shown that the proposed control method enhances low-voltage ride-through capability and improves system damping under large disturbances.