External shocks and tourist arrivals to Cambodia

This article investigates how external shocks affect tourist arrivals to Cambodia. The study relies on the random walk approach to test whether the shocks to tourist arrivals are temporary or persistent in nature. To facilitate the empirical investigation, the study applies and compares the results from different unit root tests and variance-ratio tests to the monthly tourists' arrival data from 1994 to December 2012. Both tests provide evidence of random walk hypothesis, implying that shocks to tourists' arrival to Cambodia have a persistent effect requiring short- to medium-term policies to combat the vulnerability due to those shocks. Public-private coordinated policies could reduce the impact, as we found that once the crisis (external shocks) is minimized, the magnitude of the shocks decays slowly.

Interday and intraday volatility: additional evidence from the Shanghai Stock Exchange

After examining both the interday and intraday return volatility of the Shanghai Composite Stock Index, it was found that the open-to-open return variance is consistently greater than the close-to-close variance. Examining the volatility of interday returns and variance ratio tests with five-minute intervals reveals an L-shaped pattern, or more precisely, two L-shaped patterns, starting with a small hump during both the morning and the afternoon sessions, with the morning session having a much higher interday volatility than the afternoon session. This L -shaped interday volatility is supported by the similarly shaped intraday volatility pattern. This result suggests that the high volatility of intraday returns for the market open is not entirely due to the trading mechanisms (call auction in the market opening) but also due to both the accumulated overnight information and the trading halt effect. The five-minute breaks after the auction and blind auction procedures are the two major driving forces which exaggerate the high intraday volatility observed at the market open.

Regulatory Change v's volume of trade effects in HSIF and HSI volatility

In an earlier paper we adopted a BEKK-GARCH framework and employed a systematic approach to examine structural breaks in the HSIF and HSI volatility. Switching dummy variables were included and tested in the variance equations to check for any structural changes in the autoregressive volatility structure due to the events that have taken place in the Hong Kong market. A Bi-variate GARCH model with 3 switching points was found to be superior as it captured the potential structural changes in return volatilities. Abolishment of the uptick rule, increase of initial margins for the HSIF and electronic trading of HSIF were found to have significant impact on the volatility structure of HSIF and HSI. In this paper we include measures of daily trading volume from both markets in the estimation. Likelihood ratio tests indicate the switching dummy variables become insignificant and the GARCH effects diminish but remain significant.

Modelling regulatory change V's volume of trading effects in HSIF and HSI volatility

In an earlier paper, we adopted a bi-variate BEKK–GARCH framework and employed a systematic approach to examine structural breaks in the Hang Seng Index and Index Futures market volatility. Switching dummy variables were included and tested in the variance equations to check for any structural changes in the autoregressive volatility structure due to the events that have taken place in the Hong Kong market surrounding the Asian markets crisis. In this paper, we include measures of daily trading volume from both markets in the estimation. Likelihood ratio tests indicate the switching dummy variables become insignificant and the GARCH effects diminish but remain significant. There is some evidence that the Sequential Arrival of Information Model (SIM) provides a platform to explain these market induced effects when volume of trade is accounted for.

Efficiency, cointegration and contagion in equity markets : evidence from China, Japan and South Korea

This paper empirically examines whether three East Asian stock markets, namely, those of China, Japan and South Korea, are individually and/or jointly efficient, and whether contagion exists between the cointegrated markets. While individual market efficiency is examined through testing for the random walk hypothesis, joint market efficiency is examined through testing for cointegration and contagion. The present study finds that the hypothesis of individual market efficiency is strongly rejected for the Chinese stock market, but not for the Japanese and the South Korean stock markets. However, when testing for cointegration, market efficiency is strongly rejected for all these markets. We take a simple case of contagion and find that although there is a long-term relationship among the three markets, the contagion hypothesis cannot be rejected only between Japanese and South Korean stock markets, indicating short-run portfolio diversification benefits from these two markets.

Evaluating irradiation dose for sterility induction and quality control of mass-produced fruit fly Bactrocera tryoni (Diptera : Tephritidae)

The sterile insect technique has been routinely used to eradicate fruit fly Bactrocera tryoni (Froggatt) incursions. This study considers whether fly quality in a mass-rearing facility can be improved by reducing irradiation doses, without sacrificing reproductive sterility. Pupae were exposed to one of five target irradiation dose ranges: 0, 40-45, 50-55, 60-65, and 70-75 Gy. Pupae were then assessed using routine quality control measures: flight ability, sex ratio, longevity under nutritional stress, emergence, and reproductive sterility. Irradiation did not have a significant effect on flight ability or sex ratio tests. Longevity under nutritional stress was significantly increased at 70-75 Gy, but no other doses differed from 0 Gy. Emergence was slightly reduced in the 50-55, 60-65, and 70-75 Gy treatments, but 40-45 Gy treatments did not differ from 0 Gy, though confounding temporal factors complicate interpretation. Reproductive sterility remained acceptable (> 99.5%) for all doses--40-45 Gy (99.78%), 50-55 Gy (100%), 60-65 Gy (100%), and 70-75 Gy (99.99%). We recommend that B. tryoni used in sterile insect technique releases be irradiated at a target dose of 50-55 Gy, providing improved quality and undiminished sterility in comparison with the current 70-75 Gy standard while also providing a substantial buffer against risk of under dosing.

A random coefficient approach to the predictability of stock returns in panels

© The Author, 2014. Most studies of the predictability of returns are based on time series data, and whenever panel data are used, the testing is almost always conducted in an unrestricted unit-by-unit fashion, which makes for a very heavy parametrization of the model. On the other hand, the few panel tests that exist are too restrictive in the sense that they are based on homogeneity assumptions that might not be true. As a response to this, the current study proposes new predictability tests in the context of a random coefficient panel data model, in which the null of no predictability corresponds to the joint restriction that the predictive slope has zero mean and variance. The tests are applied to a large panel of stocks listed at the New York Stock Exchange. The results suggest that while the predictive slopes tend to average to zero, in case of book-to-market and cash flow-to-price the variance of the slopes is positive, which we take as evidence of predictability.

Benefits of a year-long workplace weight loss program on cardiovascular risk factors

Objective: To assess the effectiveness of a year-long workplace weight loss program in reducing risk factors of coronary heart disease.

Design: A randomised, controlled study of low fat (25% of dietary energy) diet- and/or moderate exercise-induced weight loss interventions in free-living, middle-aged men. Compliance was monitored from food and activity diaries at monthly blood pressure measurement sessions. Blood was sampled and body composition determined from dual energy X-ray absorptiometry before and after 12 months.

Subjects and setting: Fifty-eight overweight men (mean [+ or -] SD age: 43.4 [+ or -] 5.7 years; BMI 29.0 [+ or -] 2.6 kg/[m.sup.2]), recruited from a national corporation, were instructed into diet (n = 18) exercise (a 21) or control (n = 19) groups over 12 months; 16 control subjects combined diet and exercise (n = 16) for the subsequent 12 months.

Main outcome measures: At 12 months, weight, total and regional fat and lean mass, dietary energy and percentage dietary fat intake, physical activity indices, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, serum insulin, blood lipids and lipoproteins.

Statistical analyses: Differences between groups were tested using analysis of variance with Scheffe post hoc test. Differences between pre- and post-intervention variables were tested using Students' paired t-tests. Pearson's correlation coefficient and univariate linear regression identified association between dependent variables, multiple stepwise regression identified specific predictors.

Results: Weight loss with either diet or exercise resulted in a reduction in systolic blood pressure (-3.3 [+ or -] 1.7%), diastolic blood pressure (-4.8 [+ or -] 1.3%) and LDL cholesterol (-3.9 [+ or -] 2.8%), a rise in HDL cholesterol (+10.0 [+ or -] 3.8%) and a change in the LDL/HDL ratio (-8.9 [+ or -] 3.5%). Abdominal fat loss (-26.8 [+ or -] 3.6% after diet; -16.6 [+ or -] 4.5% after exercise; -21.0 [+ or -] 4.7% after diet and exercise) was the strongest predictor of change in blood pressure: twenty percent abdominal fat loss predicted a percentage fall of 2.4 [+ or -] 0.05% in systolic blood pressure and 5.4 [+ or -] 0.07% in diastolic blood pressure. Greater abdominal fat loss was associated with the greatest decrease in serum insulin (P < 0.05).

Conclusion: Modest changes in diet and exercise effected by a low cost workplace-based education program achieved weight loss, loss of abdominal fat, reduced blood pressure and serum insulin and improved blood lipid concentrations. (Nutr Diet 2002;59:87-96)

Colorectal cancer screening in Australia: an economic evaluation of a potential biennial screening program using faecal occult blood tests

Objective: To evaluate whether the introduction of a national, co-ordinated screening program using the faecal occult blood test represents 'value-for-money' from the perspective of the Australian Government as third-party funder.  Methods: The annual equivalent costs and consequences of a   biennial screening program in 'steady-state' operation were estimated for the Australian population using 1996 as the reference year. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and the years of life lost (YLLs) averted, and the health service costs were modelled, based on the epidemiology and the costs of colorectal cancer in Australia together with the mortality reduction achieved in randomised controlled trials. Uncertainty in the model was examined using Monte Carlo simulation methods. Results: We estimate a minimum or 'base program' of screening those aged 55 to 69 years could avert 250 deaths per annum (95% uncertainty interval 99–400), at a gross cost of $A55 million (95% UI $A46 million to $A96 million) and a gross incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $A17,000/DALY (95% UI $A13,000/DALY to $A52,000/DALY). Extending the program to include 70 to 74-year-olds is a more effective option (cheaper and higher health gain) than including the 50 to 54-year-olds. Conclusions: The findings of this study support the case for a national program directed at the 55 to 69-year-old age group with extension to 70 to 74-year-olds if there are sufficient resources. The pilot tests recently announced in Australia provide an important opportunity to consider the age range for screening and the sources of uncertainty, identified in the modelled evaluation, to assist decisions on implementing a full national program.

Female labour force participation, fertility and infant mortality in Australia : some empirical evidence from Granger causality tests

This study applies Granger causality tests within a multivariate error correction framework to examine the relationship between female participation rates, infant mortality rates and fertility rates for Australia using annual data from 1960 to 2000. Decomposition of variance and impulse response functions are also considered. The main findings are twofold. First, in the short run there is unidirectional Granger causality running from the fertility rate to female labour force participation and from the infant mortality rate to female labour force participation while there is neutrality between the fertility rate and infant mortality rate. Second, in the long run both the fertility rate and infant mortality rate Granger cause female labour participation.

Higher education, real income and real investment in China : evidence from Granger causality tests

This paper employs cointegration and error-correction modelling to test the causal relationship between real income, real investment and tertiary education using data for the People's Republic of China over the period 1952-1999. To proxy tertiary education we use higher education enrolments and higher education graduates in alternative empirical specifications. One of the paper's main findings is that real income, real investment and tertiary education are cointegrated when real investment is the dependent variable, but are not cointegrated when either tertiary education or real income is the dependent variable. We also extend the in-sample analysis to examine the decomposition of variance and impulse response functions.

Many-sample location and scale tests with quantile-function error distributions /by Azmeri Khan

This thesis, using a computer simulation, studies the effect of the normal distribution assumption on the power of several many-sample location and scale test procedures. It also suggests an almost robust parametric test, namely numerical likelihood ratio test (NLRT) for non-normal situations. The NLRT is found better than all of the tests considered. Some real life data sets were used as examples.

Ratio-dependent response of a temperate Australian estuarine system to sustained nitrogen loading

Classical resource- and the less studied ratio-dependent models of predator–prey relationships provide divergent predictions as to the sustained ecological effects of bottom-up forcing. While resource-dependent models, which consider only instantaneous prey density in modelling predator responses, predict community responses that are dependent on the number of trophic levels in a system, ratio-dependent models, which consider the number of prey per consumer, predict proportional increase in each level irrespective of chain length. The two models are only subtly different for systems with two or three trophic levels but in the case of four trophic levels, predict opposite effects of enrichment on primary producers. Despite the poor discriminatory power of tests of the models in systems with two or three trophic levels, field tests in estuarine and marine systems with four trophic levels have been notably absent. Sampling of phytoplankton, macroinvertebrates, invertebrate-feeding fishes, piscivorous fishes in Kooloonbung Creek, Hastings River estuary, eastern Australia, subject to over 20 years of sewage discharge, revealed increased abundances in all four trophic levels at the disturbed location relative to control sites. Increased abundance of phytoplankton at the disturbed site was counter to the predictions of resource-dependent models, which posit a reduction in the first trophic level in response to enrichment. By contrast, the increase in abundance of this first trophic level and the proportionality of increases in abundances of each of the four trophic groups to nitrogen loading provided strong support for ratio dependency. This first evidence of ratio dependence in an estuarine system with four trophic levels not only demonstrates the applicability of ecological theory which seeks to simplify the complexity of systems, but has implications for management. Although large nutrient inputs frequently induce mortality of invertebrates and fish, we have shown that smaller inputs may in fact enhance biomass of all trophic levels.

Two tests of approach-iron golf skill and their ability to predict tournament performance

The aim of this study was to investigate the convergent and predictive validity of two skill tests that examine the ability of golfers to hit accurate approach-iron shots. Twenty-four high-level golfers (handicap = 2.6 ± 1.7) performed the Nine-Ball Skills Test (assesses the ability to shape/control ball trajectory with high accuracy) and the Approach-Iron Skill Test (assesses the ability to hit straight shots from varying distances with high accuracy). Participants then completed at least eight rounds of tournament golf over the following 90 days and reported an indicator of approach-iron accuracy (per cent error index). A moderate correlation (r = 0.50, P < 0.05) was noted between scores for both tests. Generalised estimating equations, using two covariates (lie of the ball and distance to hole), were used to determine model fit and the amount of variance explained for tournament per cent error index. Results showed that the Approach-Iron Skill Test was the slightly stronger predictor of on-course per cent error index. With both test scores considered together, a minimal amount of additional variance was explained. These findings suggest that either of the tests used individually or combined may be used to predict tournament approach iron performance in high-level golfers.