Urban growth centres on the periphery : ad hoc policy vision and research neglect

The focus of this paper is peripheral urban growth centres on the edges of capital cities in Australia and the challenges they face as dormitory suburbs attempting to establish their own local business development. These challenges create dilemmas as infrastructure and climate change place pressure on long commuting times, while developing strong locally based communities is limited by many resource and demand constraints. The main research question is to examine how these challenges are being addressed in both public policy and academic research. Two propositions emerge from this analysis. The first is that, despite clear recognition of these challenges by public policy makers, there is a lack of coherent policy vision in addressing the dilemmas that are facing these urban growth centres. The second is that, despite all the concerns and lack of policy vision, there is a dearth of useful academic research in Australia to understand the dilemmas and provide guidance for appropriate policy options. In the context of ad hoc policy and academic neglect; Casey, Melton and Wyndham are the three major urban peripheral local government areas in Victoria that are profiled in this paper. They serve as examples in examining incoherence of policy and then analysing the elements that are needed for effective and strong peripheral growth centres that could propel these centres towards efficient and equitable liveable communities. A broad composite model of regional economic development is used to examine the attendant problems in these urban centres and the various viable policy options for addressing these problems. In the process, this paper aims to provide a basis for further rigorous academic investigation of peripheral urban growth centres in Australia and, arising from this, more coherent policies for the economic development of such centres.

Simulating urban growth in a developing nation's region using a cellular automata-based model

Urbanization is one of the most evident global changes. Research in the field of urban growth modelling has generated models that explore for drivers and components of the urban growth dynamics. Cellular automata (CA) modeling is one of the recent advances, and a number of CA-based models of urban growth have produced satisfactory simulations of spatial urban expansion over time. Most application and test of CA-based models of urban growth which provide likely and reliable simulations has been developed in urban regions of developed nations; urban regions in the United States, in particular. This is because most of the models were developed in universities and research centers of developed nations, and these regions have the required data, which is extensive. Most of the population growth in the world, however, occurs in the developing world. While some European countries show signs of stabilization of their population, in less developed countries, such as India, population still grows exponentially. And this growth is normally uncoordinated, which results in serious environmental and social problems in urban areas. Therefore, the use of existing dynamic–spatial models of urban growth in regions of developing nations could be a means to assist planners and decision makers of these regions to understand and simulate the process of urban growth and test the results of different development strategies. The pattern of growth of urban regions of developing nations, however, seems to be different of the pattern of developed countries. The former use to be more dense and centralized, normally expanding outwards from consolidated urban areas; while the second is normally more fragmented and sparse. The present paper aims to investigate to how extent existing CA-based urban growth models tested in developed nations can also be applied to a developing country urban area. The urban growth model was applied to Porto Alegre City, Brazil. An expected contiguous expansion from existing urban areas has been obtained as following the historical trends of growth of the region. Moreover, the model was sensitive and able to portray different pattern of growth in the study area by changing the value of its parameters.

Urban growth in arid environments : developing water sustainability indicators for Abu Dhabi (UAE)

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) face a serious water problem. It has a very dry climate, high evaporation rate, combined with large water consumption from fast growing population, economic activities and uncontrolled uses of water for irrigation. Currently, UAE has one of the largest water footprints in the world. Groundwater is overexploited. Waste water is increasingly being treated to supply non-drinking water, but it still cover a small proportion of the demand. Desalination of sea water is the main source of potable water in UAE, but the high economic cost of desalination, its intensive energy demand and the adverse effects of its effluents on the marine life are a major concern. Other factors contributing to the problem are the focus of water management policies on keep supplying the growing demand for water, the increase of the per capita water consumption, and the free water charge for most of population. This research goal is to develop a water sustainability set of indicators for the challenging context of UAE. This paper presents the first stage of the research. Based on a review of the literature, the proposed framework involves 19 indicators, divided into four categories: water availability; water quality; water use efficiency; and policy and governance. Using an integrated cause-effect approach (DSR - Driving force, State, Response), the indicators were related in terms of their interdependencies, with a holistic view of the city water cycle. A preliminary test of the indicators to Abu Dhabi as a case study allowed an evaluation of the main 'Driving force' on the system, such as the scarcity of water due to natural constraints of the region, and increasing water consumption patterns of modern society; an assessment of the current 'state', which is under serious water stress. Also it indicated some potential 'responses', such as implementing policies for increasing efficient use.

Modelling urban growth futures within inner metropolitan Melbourne

In the light of the Victorian State Government's move towards the development of 'Plan Melbourne' - a new metropolitan planning strategy currently being prepared to take Melbourne forward to 2050 - the following paper attempts to address the issue of how an inner city target of 90,000 new dwellings (Inner Metropolitan Action Plan - IMAP Strategy 5) will impact on existing inner Melbourne activity centres. Working with the prospect of establishing a more compact city within the inner Melbourne region, the paper will focus on key suburbs within the Port Phillip area. Working with a 'Housing Variance Model' based on household structure and dwelling type, the paper will attempt to assess the impact on urban morphology as capacity is progressively altered through a range of built form permutations.

Working with 'housing variance' to model urban growth futures with inner metropolitan Melbourne

Continued population growth in Melbourne over the past decade has led to the development of a range of strategies and policies by State and Local levels of government to set an agenda for a more sustainable form of urban development. As the Victorian State government moves towards the development of 'Plan Melbourne', a new metropolitan planning strategy currently being prepared to take Melbourne forward to 2050, the following paper addresses the issue of how new residential built form will impact on and be accommodated in existing Inner Melbourne activity centres. Working with the prospect of establishing a more compact city in order to meet an inner city target of 90,000 new dwellings (Inner Metropolitan Action Plan - IMAP Strategy 5), the paper presents a 'Housing Variance Model' based on household structure and dwelling type. As capacity is progressively altered through a range of built form permutations, the research attempts to assess the impact on the urban morphology of a case study of four Major Activity Centres in the municipality of Port Phillip.

Urban growth and pedestrian thermal comfort

Melbourne is the second largest city in Australia, and its population is anticipated to reach 6.5 million by 2050. In October 2013, Plan Melbourne was released by Victorian government, aiming to intensify several districts to protect the suburbs from urban sprawl. The City of Melbourne’s draft municipal strategic statement identified City North as a great urban renewal area which can accommodate a significant part of the growth. Given the previous heat-related incidence in Melbourne in 2009, the potential threat to human health and pedestrian comfort will be exacerbated, if planning professionals exclude climatic conscious urban design in their practices. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the effect of the future structural plans on the microclimate and pedestrian thermal comfort in City North through numerical simulations. A three dimensional numerical modelling system, ENVI-met was used for the simulation. Field measurements were conducted across the study area to validate the simulated outputs. A clear reduction was reported in the average daytime mean radiant temperature, surface temperature and PMV values after implementing “Plan Melbourne” strategies. The outcomes of this study will assist urban planners in developing the policies which can effectively decrease the vulnerability to the heat stress at pedestrian level.

Compact development minimizes the impacts of urban growth on native mammals

Unprecedented global human population growth and rapid urbanization of rural and natural lands highlight the urgent need to integrate biodiversity conservation into planning for urban growth. A challenging question for applied ecologists to answer is: What pattern of urban growth meets future housing demand whilst minimizing impacts on biodiversity? We quantified the consequences for mammals of meeting future housing demand under different patterns of compact and dispersed urban growth in an urbanizing forested landscape in south-eastern Australia. Using empirical data, we predicted impacts on mammals of urban growth scenarios that varied in housing density (compact versus dispersed) and location of development for four target numbers of new dwellings. We predicted that compact developments (i.e. high-density housing) reduced up to 6% of the area of occupancy or abundance of five of the six mammal species examined. In contrast, dispersed developments (i.e. low-density housing) led to increased mammal abundance overall, although results varied between species: as dwellings increased, the abundance or occurrence of two species increased (up to ∼100%), one species showed no change, and three species declined (up to ∼39%). Two ground-dwelling mammal species (Antechinus stuartii and Rattus fuscipes) and a tree-dwelling species (Petaurus australis) were predicted to decline considerably under dispersed rather than compact development. The strongest negative effect of dispersed development was for Petaurus australis (a species more abundant in forested interiors) which exhibited up to a 39% reduction in abundance due to forest loss and an extended negative edge effect from urban settlements into adjacent forests. Synthesis and applications. Our findings demonstrate that, when aiming to meet demand for housing, any form of compact development (i.e. high-density housing) has fewer detrimental impacts on forest-dwelling mammals than dispersed development (i.e. low-density housing). This is because compact development concentrates the negative effects of housing into a small area whilst at the same time preserving large expanses of forests and the fauna they sustain. Landscape planning and urban growth policies must consider the trade-off between the intensity of the threat and area of sprawl when aiming to reduce urbanization impacts.

Virtual ampang Jaya

Virtual Ampang Jaya is an interactive visualization environment for modeling urban growth and spatio-temporal transformation to expose and evaluate the different layers of Ampang Jaya, consisting of social, economic, built and natural environments. The research will investigate the techniques of data acquisition, data reconstruction from physical to digital, urban analysis and visualization in constructing a digital model which may include low geometric content such as 2D digital maps and digital orthographics to high geometric content such as full volumetric parametric modeling. The process will integrate the state of the art GIS system to explore GIS powerful analytical and querying capabilities with interactive visualization environment as well as test the model as a predictive tool. The model will set as an experimental test pad in providing a new platform to support decision making about the spatial growth of Ampang Jaya by the various stakeholders in the planning processes. Such an environment will improve the subsequent digital models and research in the area of urban design and planning where visual communication is central.

Impact of past and future residential housing development patterns on energy demand and related emissions

The continued outward growth from a central business district has been the dominant characteristic of most cities in Australia. However, this feature is seen as unsustainable and alternative scenarios to contain the outward growth are being proposed. Melbourne is currently grappling with this issue while simultaneously trying to reduce per capita greenhouse gas emissions. Housing size, style and its location are the three principal factors which determine the emissions from the residential sector. This paper describes a methodology to assess the combined impact of these factors on past and possible future forms of residential development in Melbourne. The analysis found that the location of the housing and its size are the dominant factors determining energy use and greenhouse gas emissions.

The use of public transport in coastal Australia : modes of travel to work and greenhouse emissions

Commuting to work is one of the most important and regular routines of transportation in towns and cities. From a geographic perspective, the length of people’s commute is influenced, to some degree, by the spatial separation of their home and workplace and the transport infrastructure. The rise of car ownership in Australia from the 1950s to the present was accompanied by a considerable decrease of public transport use. Currently there is an average of 1.4 persons per car in Australia, and private cars are involved in approximately 90% of the trips, and public transportation in only 10%. Increased personal mobility has fuelled the trend of decentralised housing development, mostly without a clear planning for local employment, or alternative means of transportation. Transport sector accounts for 14% of Australia’s net greenhouse gas emissions. Without further policy action, Australia’s emissions are projected to continue to increase. The Australian Federal Government and the new Department of Climate Change have recently published a set of maps showing that rising seas would submerge large parts of Victoria coastal region. Such event would lead to major disruption in planned urban growth areas in the next 50 years with broad scale inundation of dwellings, facilities and road networks. The Greater Geelong Region has well established infrastructure as a major urban centre and tourist destination and hence attracted the attention of federal and state governments in their quest for further development and population growth. As a result of its natural beauty and ecological sensitivity, scenarios for growth in the region are currently under scrutiny from local government as well as development agencies, scientists, and planners. This paper is part of a broad research in the relationship between transportation system, urban form, trip demand, and emissions, as a paramount in addressing the challenges presented by urban growth. Progressing from previous work focused on private cars, this present paper investigates the use of public transport as a mode for commuting in the Greater Geelong Region. Using a GIS based interaction model, it characterises the current use of the existing public transportation system, and also builds a scenario of increased use of the existing public transportation system, estimating potencial reductions in CO2 emissions. This study provides an improved understanding of the extent to which choices of transport mode and travel activity patterns, affect emissions in the context of regional networks. The results indicate that emissions from commuting by public transportation are significantly lower than those from commuting by private car, and emphasise that there are opportunities for large abatment in the greenhouse emissions from the transportation sector related to efforts in increasing the use of existing public transportation system.

Energy and greenhouse gas emissions implications of alternative housing types for Australia

Many cities around the world are looking for ways to reduce their per capita greenhouse gas emissions. The outward growth of cities from a central business district, typical of many cities around the world, is often seen as working against this goal and as unsustainable. This is especially the case in circumstances where this growth is not supported by the necessary infrastructure, often resulting in an increase in the use of private transport. However, alternative scenarios to contain the outward growth are being proposed. This paper provides a comparison of the energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions between typical detached outer-suburban housing currently being built in Australia's major cities and inner-city and -suburban apartments, which are increasingly seen as a legitimate alternative to the housing that is currently being built on our outer city fringes. By analysing the energy demand associated with the construction and operation of each housing type and for occupant travel it was found that the location of the housing and its size are the dominant factors determining energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. The findings from this analysis provide useful information for policy-makers in planning the development of our cities into the future, when faced with a growing population and an increasing need to minimise greenhouse gas emissions.

Mapping potential risk for housing damage from ground movement due to climate change

The performance of footings in residential construction is influenced by the degree of ground movement, particularly in reactive soils, which is driven by the magnitude of change in soil moisture. New patterns of climate are affecting residential foundations and causing serious and expensive damage. This paper produces a map of potential risk for housing damage from ground movement due to climate change. Using a geographic information system, it combines information on (1) soil moisture change related to climate, using TMI as the indicator, and (2) population growth. Preliminary results, having Victoria, Australia, in the last decade as the case study, suggest that effects of climate change on soil, and resulting impacts on house foundations, are not being taken into consideration in current planning strategies for urban development. Most of the urban growth priority zones in the study area are susceptible to medium and high risk for damage. Producing new and renovated buildings that are durable in the long term is essential for the economy, environment and social welfare. The map presented here can assist policies and strategies towards urban resilience in the context of climate change.

Interactive urban language and city growth

The thesis is a refinement of semiotic theory in architecture which aims towards developing a conversation between Western theory and the Eastern city. Using theoretical bases including semiotic theory, Japanese analytical text and analogies of cultural products, this thesis proposes that urban language can be perceived and analysed.