Evaluation of heat stress indices using physiological comparisons in an alumina refinery in a sub-tropical climate

The production of alumina involves the use of a process known as the Bayer process. This method involves the digestion of raw bauxite in sodium hydroxide at temperatures around 250°C. The resultant pregnant liquor then goes through a number of filtering and precipitation processes to obtain the aluminium oxide crystals which are then calcined to obtain the final product. The plant is situated in a sub tropical climate in Northern Australia and this combined with the hot nature of the process results in a potential for heat related illnesses to develop. When assessing a work environment for heat stress a heat stress index is often employed as a guideline and to date the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) has been the recommended index. There have been concerns over the past that the WBGT is not suited to the Northern Australian climate and in fact studies in other countries have suggested this is the case. This study was undertaken in the alumina plant situated in Gladstone Queensland to assess if WBGT was in fact the most suitable index for use or if another was more applicable. To this end three indices, Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), Heat Stress Index (HSI) and Required Sweat Rate (SWreq) were compared and assessed using physiological monitoring of heart rate and surrogate core temperature. A number of different jobs and locations around the plant were investigated utilising personal and environmental monitoring equipment. These results were then collated and analysed using a computer program written as part of the study for the manipulation of the environmental data . Physiological assessment was carried out using methods approved by international bodies such as National Institute for Occupational Safety & Health (NIOSH) and International Standards Organisation (ISO) and incorporated the use of a ‘Physiological Factor’ developed to enable the comparison of predicted allowable exposure times and strain on the individual. Results indicated that of the three indices tested, Required Sweat Rate was found to be the most suitable for the climate and in the environment of interest. The WBGT system was suitable in areas in the moderate temperature range (ie 28 to 32°C) but had some deficiencies above this temperature or where the relative humidity exceeded approximately 80%. It was however suitable as a first estimate or first line indicator. HSI over-estimated the physiological strain in situations of high temperatures, low air flows and exaggerated the benefit of artificial air flows on the worker in certain environments ie. fans.

Climate-driven impacts of prey abundance on the population structure of a tropical aquatic predator

In the present study we explore how annual variation in climate (late wet-season rainfall) affects population demography in a gape-limited obligate piscivorous predator, the Arafura filesnake Acrochordus arafurae in the Australian tropics. These aquatic snakes display extreme sexual dimorphism, with body sizes and relative head sizes of females much larger than those of males. Two consecutive years with low rainfall during the late wet season reduced the abundance of small but not large sized fish. Although snake residual body mass (RBM, calculated from a general linear regression of ln-transformed mass to ln-SVL) decreased after the first year with low prey availability, it was not until the second year that reduced prey abundance caused a dramatic decline in filesnake survival, and hence in population numbers. Thus, our results suggest that most snakes survived the first year of reduced prey abundance, but a successive year with low prey availability proved fatal for many animals. However, the effects of prey scarcity on RBM and survival fell disproportionately on some size classes of snakes. Medium-sized animals (large males and intermediate-sized females) were affected more dramatically than were small or large snakes. We attribute the higher survival of small snakes to their lower energy needs compared to medium-sized individuals, and the higher survival of large snakes to the continued abundance of large prey (mainly large catfish). Two successive years with low abundance of smaller sized prey thus massively modified the size-structure of the filesnake population, virtually eliminating large males and intermediate-sized females. Our field data provide a clear demonstration of the ways in which stochastic variation in climatic conditions can have dramatic effects on predator population demography, mediated via effects on prey availability.

Intra urban air temperature distributions in historic urban center

The study investigates the urban heat island effect in Malaysian historic town Malacca through seven mobile traverses, as carried out on 10 December 2011. It aims to identify the intra-urban air temperature differences between heritage core zone, new development area and outskirts of the city. Air temperature variations were also analyzed across three different zones; namely the outskirts, the heritage site and the city center district. Heat index values were then calculated based on air temperature and relative humidity to gauge the level of outdoor thermal comfort within the study area. Based on the indications, one may conclude that the heritage place’s core zone is currently threatened by escalating temperatures and that its current temperature range falls within the “caution” and “extreme caution” categories. Furthermore, no significant difference was observed between the peak temperatures of the old city quarters and newer areas; despite the disparities in their urban forms. Therefore, it is hoped that the study, with its implications, will be able to influence future environmental consideration in heritage city of Melaka.

Performance of tropical fish recruiting to temperate habitats: role of ambient temperature and implications of climate change

The warming of coastal oceans due to climate change is increasing the overwinter survival of tropical fishes transported to temperate latitudes by ocean currents. However, the processes governing early post-arrival mortality are complex and can result in minimum threshold temperatures for overwinter survival, which are greater than those predicted based upon physiological temperature tolerances alone. This 3.5 mo laboratory study monitored the early performance of a tropical damselfish Abudefduf vaigiensis that occurs commonly during austral summer along the SE Australian coast, under nominal summer and winter water temperatures, and compares results with a co-occurring year-round resident of the same family, Parma microlepis. Survivorship, feeding rate, growth and burst swimming ability (as a measure of predator escape ability) were all reduced for the tropical species at winter water temperatures compared to those in summer, whereas the temperate species experienced no mortality and only feeding rate was reduced at colder temperatures. These results suggest that observed minimum threshold survival temperatures may be greater than predicted by physiology alone, due to lowered food intake combined with increased predation risk (a longer time at vulnerable sizes and reduced escape ability). Overwinter survival is a significant hurdle in pole-ward range expansions of tropical fishes, and a better understanding of its complex processes will allow for more accurate predictions of changes in biodiversity as coastal ocean temperatures continue to increase due to climate change.

Floods and famine: climate-induced collapse of a tropical predator-prey community

Will climate change threaten wildlife populations by gradual shifts in mean conditions, or by increased frequency of extreme weather events? Based on long-term data (from 1991 to 2014), the aim of the present study was to analyse and compare the sensitivity of predator-prey demography to extreme climatic events versus normal, albeit highly variable, annual deviations in climatic conditions in the Australian wet-dry tropics. From 1991 to 2005, predators (water pythons, Liasis fuscus) and their main prey (dusky rats, Rattus colletti) showed significant climate-driven fluctuations in numbers. These fluctuations were, however, trivial compared to the impact of two massive but brief deluges in 2007 and 2011, which virtually eliminated the dusky rats. The two floods resulted in the pythons experiencing an unprecedented famine in seven out of the last 8 years causing a massive shift in python demography, that is a significant reduction in feeding rates, reproductive output, growth rates, relative body mass, survival, mean body length and numbers (from 3173 in 1992 to 96 in 2013). Our results demonstrate that attempts to predict faunal responses to climate change, even if based on long-term studies, may be doomed to failure. Consequently, biologists may need to confront the uncomfortable truth that increased frequency of brief unpredictable bouts of extreme weather can influence populations far more than gradual deviations in mean climatic conditions.

Biotic effects of climate change in urban environments: The case of the grey-headed flying-fox (Pteropus poliocephalus) in Melbourne, Australia

Urban climates are known to differ from those of the surrounding rural areas, as human activities in cities lead to changes in temperature, humidity and wind regimes. These changes can in turn affect the geographic distribution of species, the behaviour of animals and the phenology of plants. The grey-headed flying-fox (Pteropus poliocephalus) is a large, nomadic bat from eastern Australia that roosts in large colonies known as camps. Historically a warm temperate to tropical species, P. poliocephalus recently established a year-round camp in the Royal Botanic Gardens Melbourne. Using a bioclimatic analysis, we demonstrated that on the basis of long-term data, Melbourne does not fall within the climatic range of other P. poliocephalus camp sites in Australia. Melbourne is drier than other summer camps, and cooler and drier than other winter camps. The city also receives less radiation, in winter and annually, than the other summer and winter camps of P. poliocephalus. However, we found that temperatures in central Melbourne have been increasing since the 1950s, leading to warmer conditions and a reduction in the number of frosts. In addition, artificial watering of parks and gardens in the city may contribute the equivalent of 590 mm (95% CI: 450–720 mm) of extra rainfall per year. It appears that human activities have increased temperatures and effective precipitation in central Melbourne, creating a more suitable climate for camps of the grey-headed flying-fox. As demonstrated by this example, anthropogenic climate change is likely to complicate further the task of conserving biological diversity in urban environments.

Future landscapes in South-eastern Australia : the role of protected areas and biolinks in adaptation to climate change

The extent and rapidity of global climate change is the major novel threatening process to biodiversity in the 21 st century. Globally, numerous studies suggest movement of biota to higher latitudes and altitudes with increasing empirical -evidence emerging. As biota responds to the direct and consequent effects of climate change the potential to profoundly affect natural systems (including the reserve system) of south-eastern Australia is becoming evident. Climate change is projected to accelerate major environmental drivers such as drought, fire and flood regimes. Is the reserve system sufficient for biodiversity conservation under a changing climate? Australia is topographically flat, biologically mega-diverse with high species endemism, and has the driest and most variable climate of any inhabited continent. Whilst the north-south orientation and aftitude gradient of eastern Australia's forests and woodlands provides some resilience to projected climatic change, this has been eroded since European settlement, particularly in the cool-moist Bassian zone of the south-east. Following settlement, massive land-use change for agriculture and forestry caused widespread loss and fragmentation of habitats; becoming geriatric in agricultural landscapes and artificially young in forests. The reserve system persists as an archipelago of ecological islands surrounded by land uses of varying compatibility with conservation and vulnerable to global warming. The capacity for biota to adapt is limited by habitat availability. The extinction risk is exacerbated. Re-examination of earlier analysis of ecological connectivity through biolink zones confirms biolinks as an appropriate risk management response within a broader suite of measures. Areas not currently in the reserve system may be critical to the value and ecological function of biological assets of the reserve system as these assets change. Ecological need and the rise of ecosystem services, combined with changing socio-economic drivers of land-use and social values that supported the expansion of the reserve system, all suggest biolink zones represent a new, necessary and viable multi-functional landscape. This paper explores some of the key ecological elements for restoration within biolink zones (and landscapes at large) particularly through currently agricultural landscapes.

Climate change impacts and adaptation in Bangladesh : an agent-based approach

Bangladesh exemplifies the complex challenges facing densely populated coastal regions. The
pressures on the country are immense: around 145 million people live within an area of just 145,000 sq-km at
the confluence of three major river systems: the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna. While progress
has been made, poverty remains widespread, with around 39% of children under five malnourished. Most of
its land-mass lies below 10m above sea level with considerable areas at sea level, leading to frequent and
prolonged flooding during the monsoons. Sea level rise is leading to more flooding as storm surges rise off
higher sea levels, pushing further inland. Higher sea levels also result in salt-water intrusion into freshwater
coastal aquifers and estuaries, contaminating drinking water and farmland. Warmer ocean waters are also
expected to lead to an increase in the intensity of tropical storms.
Bangladesh depends on the South Asian summer monsoon for most of its rainfall which is expected to
increase, leading to more flooding. Climate scientists are also concerned about the stability of monsoon and
the potential for it to undergo a nonlinear phase shift to a drier regime. Bangladesh faces an additional
hydrological challenge in that the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers both rise in the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau
region, where glaciers are melting rapidly. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
concluded that rapid melting is expected to increase river flows until around the late-2030s, by which time
the glaciers are expected to have shrunk from their 1995 extent of 500,000 sq-km to an expected 100,000 sqkm.
After the 2030s, river flows could drop dramatically, turning the great glacier-fed rivers of Asia into
seasonal monsoon-fed rivers. The IPCC concluded that as a result, water shortages in Asia could affect more
than a billion people by the 2050s. Over the same period, crop yields are expected to decline by up to 30% in
South Asia due to a combination of drought and crop heat stress. Bangladesh is therefore likely to face
substantial challenges in the coming decades.
In order to adequately understand the complex, dynamic, spatial and nonlinear challenges facing Bangladesh,
an integrated model of the system is required. An agent-based model (ABM) permits the dynamic
interactions of the economic, social, political, geographic, environmental and epidemiological dimensions of
climate change impacts and adaptation policies to be integrated via a modular approach. Integrating these
dimensions, including nonlinear threshold events such as mass migrations, or the outbreak of conflicts or
epidemics, is possible to a far greater degree with an ABM than with most other approaches.
We are developing a prototype ABM, implemented in Netlogo, to examine the dynamic impacts on poverty,
migration, mortality and conflict from climate change in Bangladesh from 2001 to 2100. The model employs
GIS and sub-district level census and economic data and a coarse-graining methodology to allow model
statistics to be generated on a national scale from local dynamic interactions. This approach allows a more
realistic treatment of distributed spatial events and heterogeneity across the country. The aim is not to
generate precise predictions of Bangladesh’s evolution, but to develop a framework that can be used for
integrated scenario exploration. This paper represents an initial report on progress on this project. So far the
prototype model has demonstrated the desirability and feasibility of integrating the different dimensions of
the complex adaptive system and, once completed, is intended to be used as the basis for a more detailed
policy-oriented model.

Predicting changes to seascapes under future climate, with the Coorong as a case study

The marine and estuarine ecosystems of South Australia are likely to alter significantly in response to a changing climate, but also in response to managerial decisions we make. The allocation of fishing effort is an example of one such decision. We summarise some projections on a state-wide basis for how different components of these ecosystems may be expected to change. We anticipate that tropical elements will expand in range but cold-temperate communities will contract or disappear from South Australia. As a specific example, we have modelled the ecosystem states of the Coorong and the Murray Mouth. We combined biological and physico-chemical components of an ecosystem into co-occurring units (termed ecosystem states) with well-defined thresholds between them. Predictions were then made using time series of inputs from modelled water flows and other predictors. Using this model, we will discuss the likely implication of a range of climate change and management scenarios, highlighting the potential impact on the commercial fishing opportunities. Specifically we will discuss the potential sensitivity of the fishery to climate changes versus various management options. Understanding these possible future changes should allow the industry to adapt before climate change reduces the sustainability of the industry.

Australia’s savanna herbivores : bioclimatic distributions and an assessment of the potential impact of regional climate change

The future impacts of climate change are predicted to significantly affect the survival of many species. Recent studies indicate that even species that are relatively mobile and/or have large geographic ranges may be at risk of range contractions or extinction. An ecologically and evolutionary significant group of mammals that has been largely overlooked in this research is Australia’s large marsupial herbivores, the macropodids (kangaroos). The aims of our investigation were to define and compare the climatic conditions that influence the current distributions of four sympatric large macropodids in northern Australia (Macropus antilopinus, Macropus robustus, Macropus giganteus, and Macropus rufus) and to predict the potential future impact of climate change on these species. Our results suggest that contemporary distributions of these large macropodids are associated with well‐defined climatic gradients (tropical and temperate conditions) and that climatic seasonality is also important. Bioclimatic modeling predicted an average reduction in northern Australian macropodid distributions of in response to increases of 2.0°C. At this temperature, the distribution of M. antilopinus was reduced by . We predict that increases of 6.0°C may cause severe range reductions for all four macropodids ( ) in northern Australia, and this range reduction may result in the extinction of M. antilopinus.

Climate change impacts : challenges for aquaculture

In spite of all the debates and controversies, a global consensus has been reached that climate change is a reality and that it will impact, in diverse manifestations that may include increased global temperature, sea level rise, more frequent occurrence of extreme weather events, change in weather patterns, etc., on food production systems, global biodiversity and overall human well being. Aquaculture is no exception. The sector is characterized by the fact that the organisms cultured, the most diverse of all farming systems and in the number of taxa farmed, are all poikilotherms. It occurs in fresh, brackish and marine waters, and in all climatic regimes from temperate to tropical. Consequently, there are bound to be many direct impacts on aquatic farming systems brought about by climate change. The situation is further exacerbated by the fact that certain aquaculture systems are dependent, to varying degrees, on products such as fishmeal and fish oil, which are derived from wild-caught resources that are subjected to reduction processes. All of the above factors will impact on aquaculture in the decades to come and accordingly, the aquatic farming systems will begin to encounter new challenges to maintain sustainability and continue to contribute to the human food basket. The challenges will vary significantly between climatic regimes. In the tropics, the main challenges will be to those farming activities that occur in deltaic regions, which also happen to be hubs of aquaculture activity, such as in the Mekong and Red River deltas in Viet Nam and the Ganges-Brahamaputra Delta in Bangladesh. Aquaculture in tropical deltaic areas will be mostly impacted by sea level rise, and hence increased saline water intrusion and reduced water flows, among others. Elsewhere in the tropics, inland cage culture and other aquaculture activities could be impacted by extreme weather conditions, increased upwelling of deoxygenated waters in reservoirs, etc., requiring greater vigilance and monitoring, and even perhaps readiness to move operations to more conducive areas in a waterbody. Indirect impacts of climate change on tropical aquaculture could be manifold but are perhaps largely unknown. The reproductive cycles of a great majority of tropical species are dependent on monsoonal rain patterns, which are predicted to change. Consequently, irrespective of whether cultured species are artificially propagated or not, changes in reproductive cycles will impact on seed production and thereby the whole grow-out cycle and modus operandi of farm activities. Equally, such impacts will be felt on the culture of those species that are based on natural spat collection, such as that of many cultured molluscs. In the temperate region, global warming could raise temperatures to the upper tolerance limits of some cultured species, thereby making such culture systems vulnerable to high temperatures. New or hitherto non-pathogenic organisms may become virulent with increases in water temperature, confronting the sector with new, hitherto unmanifested and/or little known diseases. One of the most important indirect effects of climate change will be driven by impacts on production of those fish species that are used for reduction, and which in turn form the basis for aquaculture feeds, particularly for carnivorous species. These indirect effects are likely to have a major impact on some key aquaculture practices in all climatic regimes. Limitations of supplies of fishmeal and fish oil and resulting exorbitant price hikes of these commodities will lead to more innovative and pragmatic solutions on ingredient substitution for aquatic feeds, which perhaps will be a positive result arising from a dire need to sustain a major sector. Aquaculture has to be proactive and start addressing the need for adaptive and mitigative measures. Such measures will entail both technological and socio-economic approaches. The latter will be more applicable to small-scale farmers, who happen to be the great bulk of producers in developing countries, which in turn constitute the “backbone’ of global aquaculture. The sociological approaches will entail the challenge of addressing the potential climate change impacts on small farming communities in the most vulnerable areas, such as in deltaic regions, weighing the most feasible adaptive options and bringing about the policy changes required to implement these adaptive measures economically and effectively. Global food habits have changed over the years. We are currently in an era where food safety and quality, backed up by ecolabelling, are paramount; it was not so 20 years ago. In the foreseeable future, we will move into an era where consumer consciousness will demand that farmed foods of every form will have to include in their labeled products the green house gas (GHG) emissions per unit of produce. Clearly, aquaculture offers an opportunity to meet these aspirations. Considering that about 70 percent of all finfish and almost 100 percent of all molluscs and seaweeds are minimally GHG emitting, it is possible to drive aquaculture as the most GHG-friendly food source. The sector could conform to such demands and continue to meet the need for an increasing global food fish supply. However, to achieve this, a paradigm shift in our seafood consumption preferences will be needed.

Climate-induced reaction norms for life-history traits in pythons

Climate change modelers predict increasingly frequent “extreme events,” so it is critical to quantify whether organismal responses (such as reproductive output) measured over the range of usual climatic conditions can predict responses under more extreme conditions. In a 20-year field study on water pythons (Liasis fuscus), we quantified the effects of climatically driven annual variation in food supply on demographic traits of female pythons (feeding rate, body size, body mass, and reproductive output). Reaction norms linking food supply to feeding rates and residual body mass were broadly linear, whereas norms linking food supply to female body size became curvilinear when a dramatic (flooding-induced) famine reduced the mean body size at sexual maturity. Thus, the reaction norms recorded over 16 years of “normal” (albeit highly variable) climatic conditions gave little insight into the population's response to a more extreme nutritional crisis.

How well do predators adjust to climate-mediated shifts in prey distribution? A study on Australian water pythons

Climate change can move the spatial location of resources critical for population viability, and a species' resilience to such changes will depend upon its ability to flexibly shift its activities away from no-longer-suitable sites to exploit new opportunities. Intuition suggests that vagile predators should be able to track spatial shifts in prey availability, but our data on water pythons (Liasis fuscus) in tropical Australia suggest a less encouraging scenario. These pythons undergo regular long-range (to >10 km) seasonal migrations to follow flooding-induced migrations by their prey (native dusky rats, Rattus colletti). However, when an extreme flooding event virtually eliminated rats for a three-year period, the local pythons did not disperse despite the presence of abundant rats only 8 km away; instead, many pythons starved to death. This inflexibility suggests that some vagile species that track seasonally migrating prey may do so by responding to habitat attributes that have consistently predicted prey availability over evolutionary time, rather than reacting to proximate cues that signal the presence of prey per se. A species' vulnerability to climate change will be increased by an inability to shift its activities away from historical sites toward newly favorable areas.

Prevalence of hyponatremia in acute medical admissions in tropical Asia Pacific Australia

To determine prevalence of hyponatremia in acute medical admissions in Northern Australasia.