Unifying manufacturing simulation models using HLA

The increasing use of simulation in manufacturing has seen an increase in simulation models created using many simulation package. This use of different simulators can create simulation islands in a manufacturing factory, making it difficult to get a true simulated overview of the factory. At present, there are only a few cases where manufacturing simulations have been linked to enable multiple simulation models to run as one. This research expands upon these cases. For this paper the topic of discussion is the research in connecting different 'Commercial Off The Shelf' simulators together to allow flow of all information through the connected models using high level architecture.

Linking discrete event simulation models using HLA

The increasing usage of discrete event simulation packages for modeling and analyzing manufacturing and logistics has led to a need for connecting simulation models together at runtime. One such methodology for linking discrete event simulation models together has been developed for this research and this paper demonstrates the usage of this linking method. A unified simulation model is developed from two submodels developed using different simulation packages.

Optimising discrete event simulation models using a reinforcement learning agent

A reinforcement learning agent has been developed to determine optimal operating policies in a multi-part serial line. The agent interacts with a discrete event simulation model of a stochastic production facility. This study identifies issues important to the simulation developer who wishes to optimise a complex simulation or develop a robust operating policy. Critical parameters pertinent to 'tuning' an agent quickly and enabling it to rapidly learn the system were investigated.

Managing realtime information flow between distributed discrete event simulation models

Investigates the creation of a method for the connection and communication of commercial off the shelf discrete-event simulation packages for simulation models of manufacturing systems. Through this research a method to connect different commercial off the shelf discrete-event simulation packages was successfully developed facilitating parallel development of models and the creation of extremely large models.

Simulation models of obesity : a review of the literature and implications for research and policy

Simulation models (SMs) combine information from a variety of sources to provide a useful tool for examining how the effects of obesity unfold over time and impact population health. SMs can aid in the understanding of the complex interaction of the drivers of diet and activity and their relation to health outcomes. As emphasized in a recently released report of the Institute or Medicine, SMs can be especially useful for considering the potential impact of an array of policies that will be required to tackle the obesity problem. The purpose of this paper is to present an overview of existing SMs for obesity. First, a background section introduces the different types of models, explains how models are constructed, shows the utility of SMs and discusses their strengths and weaknesses. Using these typologies, we then briefly review extant obesity SMs. We categorize these models according to their focus: health and economic outcomes, trends in obesity as a function of past trends, physiologically based behavioural models, environmental contributors to obesity and policy interventions. Finally, we suggest directions for future research.

MPEG Traffic Performance via TCP over ATM

A large volume of TCP/IP traffic is currently, and in the future will be, carried over ATM networks. A major part of the traffic, which is produced by multimedia sources, is encoded using the MPEG standard. For the performance analysis of transferring MPEG video sequence via TCP/IP over A TM networks, there is a need for appropriate simulation models. This paper describes one such simulation model that we have constructed. A sct of preliminary simulation experiments have been conducted with the mode to assess the impact of different network configurations on the MPEG traffic transmission performance. Our simulation model is able to simulate many of the potential performance issues regarding video traffic via TCPIIP and A TM and can be used to evaluate any potential solutions.

A performance comparison of three wireless multi hop ad-hoc network routing protocols when streaming MPEG4 traffic

Mobile ad-hoc networks are characterised by constant topology changes, the absence of fixed infrastructure and lack of any centralised control. Traditional routing algorithms prove to be inefficient in such a changing environment. Ad-hoc routing protocols such as dynamic source routing (DSR), ad-hoc on-demand distance vector routing (AODV) and destination-sequence distance vector (DSDV) have been proposed to solve the multi hop routing problem in ad-hoc networks. Performance studies of these routing protocols have assumed constant bit rate (CBR) traffic. Real-time multimedia traffic generated by video-on demand and teleconferencing services are mostly variable bit rate (VBR) traffic. Most of these multimedia traffic is encoded using the MPEG standard. (ISO moving picture expert group). When video traffic is transferred over MANETs a series of performance issues arise. In this paper we present a performance comparison of three ad-hoc routing protocols - DSR, AODV and DSDV when streaming MPEG4 traffic. Simulation studies show that DSDV performs better than AODV and DSR. However all three protocols fail to provide good performance in large, highly mobile network environments. Further study is required to improve the performance of these protocols in mobile ad-hoc networks offering VBR services.

Extending robust industrial optimisation using simulation and reinforcement learning

Traditional optimisation methods are incapable of capturing the complexity of today's dynamic manufacturing systems. A new methodology, integrating simulation models and intelligent learning agents, was successfully applied to identify solutions to a fundamental scheduling problem. The robustness of this approach was then demonstrated through a series of real-world industrial applications.

Models of screening

This article describes models for disease screening and how they have developed in recent years. The discussion focuses on screening for cancer, because most of the methodological advances in screening design and evaluation have concerned cancer screening. The first part of the article describes the characteristics of these models and illustrates them with a discussion of a simple screening model. The second part describes the development, strengths, and weaknesses of the two main types of screening model—analytic and simulation models—with a particular focus on microsimulation models. The third part discusses model fitting and validation, and the final part briefly describes models for diseases other than cancer—in particular, models for screening for infectious diseases—and discusses the current state and possible future directions for models of disease screening.

Statistical models for cancer screening

This paper reviews the application of statistical models to planning and evaluating cancer screening programmes. Models used to analyse screening strategies can be classified as either surface models, which consider only those events which can be directly observed such as disease incidence, prevalence or mortality, or deep models, which incorporate hypotheses about the disease process that generates the observed events. This paper focuses on the latter type. These can be further classified as analytic models, which use a model of the disease to derive direct estimates of characteristics of the screening procedure and its consequent benefits, and simulation models, which use the disease model to simulate the course of the disease in a hypothetical population with and without screening and derive measures of the benefit of screening from the simulation outcomes. The main approaches to each type of model are described and an overview given of their historical development and strengths and weaknesses. A brief review of fitting and validating such models is given and finally a discussion of the current state of, and likely future trends in, cancer screening models is presented.

Video driven traffic modelling in ParamicsTM

With urbanization and vehicle availability, there exist many traffic problems including congestion, environmental impact and safety. In order to address these problems, we propose a video driven traffic modelling system in this paper. The system can simulate real-world traffic activities in a computer, based on traffic data recorded in videos. Video processing is employed to estimate metrics such as traffic volumes. These metrics are used to update the traffic system model, which is then simulated using the Paramics™ traffic simulation platform. Video driven traffic modelling has widespread potential application in traffic systems, due to the convenience and reduced costs of model development and maintenance. Experiments are conducted in this paper to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed system.

Video driven traffic modelling

We propose Video Driven Traffic Modelling (VDTM) for accurate simulation of real-world traffic behaviours with detailed information and low-cost model development and maintenance. Computer vision techniques are employed to estimate traffic parameters. These parameters are used to build and update a traffic system model. The model is simulated using the Paramics traffic simulation platform. Based on the simulation techniques, effects of traffic interventions can be evaluated in order to achieve better decision makings for traffic management authorities. In this paper, traffic parameters such as vehicle types, times of starting trips and corresponding origin-destinations are extracted from a video. A road network is manually defined according to the traffic composition in the video, and individual vehicles associated with extracted properties are modelled and simulated within the defined road network using Paramics. VDTM has widespread potential applications in supporting traffic decision-makings. To demonstrate the effectiveness, we apply it in optimizing a traffic signal control system, which adaptively adjusts green times of signals at an intersection to reduce traffic congestion.

Generative experimentation and social simulation : exploring gaming for model vVerification and validation

The agent-based modelling paradigm has been actively applied to address social normative issues such as values, cognition, morality and behaviours. The abstraction of human and human-like social processes and mechanisms result in misalignment of computational model with existing verification and validation techniques and expose significant challenges. We argue that human sources represent a sound approach for verification and validation of agent-based social simulation models. We propose a novel conceptual gaming framework that extracts required information from relevant sources as part of game play

Towards development of a quality cost model for automotive stamping

The current work used discrete event simulation techniques to model the economics of quality within an actual automotive stamping plant. Automotive stamping is a complex, capital intensive process requiring part-specific tooling and specialised machinery. Quality control and quality improvement is difficult in the stamping environment due to the general lack of process understanding and the large number to interacting variables. These factors have prevented the widespread use of statistical process control. In this work, a model of the quality control techniques used at the Ford Geelong Stamping plant is developed and indirectly validated against results from production. To date, most discrete event models are of systems where the quality control process is clearly defined by the rules of statistical process control. However, the quality control technique used within the stamping plant is for the operator to perform a 100% visual inspection while unloading the finished panels. In the developed model, control is enacted after a cumulative count of defective items is observed, thereby approximating the operator who allows a number of defective panels to accumulate before resetting the line. Analysis of this model found that the cost sensitivity to inspection error is dependent upon the level of control and that the level of control determines line utilisation. Additional analysis of this model demonstrated that additional inspection processes would lead to more stable cost structures but these structures many not necessarily be lower cost. The model was subsequently applied to investigate the economics of quality improvement. The quality problem of panel blemishes, induced by slivers (small metal fragments), was chosen as a case stuffy. Errors of 20-30% were observed during direct validation of the cost model and it was concluded that the use of discrete event simulation models for applications requiring high accuracy would not be possible unless the production system was of low complexity. However, the model could be used to evaluate the sensitivity of input factors and investigating the effects of a number of potential improvement opportunities. Therefore, the research concluded that it is possible to use discrete event simulation to determine the quality economics of an actual stamping plant. However, limitations imposed by inability of the model to consider a number of external factors, such as continuous improvement, operator working conditions or wear and the lack of reliable quality data, result in low cost accuracy. Despite this, it still can be demonstrated that discrete event simulation has significant benefits over the alternate modelling methods.

Production system model of children's development of number concepts

The purpose of the present research study was to produce a global, cumulative model of number concept development for children between the ages of two and eight years old. The theoretical and methodological orientation of this study was greatly influenced by Richard Young's production system analysis of seriation by young children (Young, 1971, 1976) and by Newell's (1973) seminal paper, ‘You can't play twenty questions with nature and win’. The methodology used in this investigation thus was as follows. A series of complex number tasks encompassing many aspects of the concept of number were developed. Five children aged between three and seven years then were videotaped while performing some of these complex number tasks. From a detailed protocol analysis of the video-recordings, computer simulation models written in the production system language PSS3 (Ohlsson, 1979) were produced. Specific production system models were produced for each of following aspects of the children's number knowledge: (i) sharing of discrete quantities; (ii) comparison of shares; and (iii) conservation/addition/subtraction of number. These domain-specific models were based on the converging experimental evidence obtained from each of the children’s responses to variants of the complex number tasks. Each child thus received a different set of problems which were chosen systematically in order to clarify particular features of the child's abilities. After a production system model for each child had been produced within a domain, these models were compared and contrasted. From this analysis, developmental trends within the domain were identified and discussed. The research and educational implications of these developmental trends then were discussed. In the concluding parts of this study, the children's domain-specific production system models were cumulated into global, comprehensive models which accurately represented their behaviour in a variety of number tasks. These comprehensive models were compared and contrasted and general developmental trends in young children's number knowledge were identified and discussed.