Ecommerce strategy in a multi-sector trading environment - quandaries for SMEs

For nearly a decade the potential benefits of Business-to-Business electronic commerce for business efficiency and competitiveness have been vigorously promoted by business, industry groups and governments. The belief underpinning policy is that from a small initial step, eCommerce will become a central part of their business strategies. This paper considers the use of B-2-B electronic transactions by SME suppliers who trade with buyer companies across diverse industry sectors in Australia. We investigate the links between their business strategies and their views of electronic trading. A survey of 240 crosssector suppliers nationwide found little evidence that electronic trading was integrated with their overall business strategy. We suggest an approach to the understanding of cross-sector electronic trading strategies that emphasises the complex, inter-connected but fragmented trading milieu rather than describing the balance between drivers and barriers that operate for the individual firm.

Is exchange rate trading profitable?

We Test whether exchange rate trading is profitable in the emerging markets of Brazil, China, India, And South Africa. Using Momentum trading strategies applied to high frequency data, we discover that: (a) momentum-based trading strategies lead to statistically significant profits from the currencies of all four emerging markets; (b) The South African Rand Is generally the most profitable, followed by the Brazilian Real And the Indian Rupee; (c) Profits are persistent during the day and are trading frequency dependent; and (d) During the period of the global financial crisis currency profits were maximised.

Momentum profits in Australian listed property trusts

This paper examines the profitability of momentum trading strategies in Australian listed property trusts (LPTs). Monthly value-weighted momentum portfolios are formed using the monthly excess returns of LPTs for the period from 1990 to 2005. Overall the findings confirm that a momentum trading strategy in Australian LPTs is a profitable strategy. More specifically, momentum strategies are profitable after adjusting for variance and downside risk where the momentum returns substantially outperform the benchmark. An analysis using different study periods confirm the findings about momentum. The practical implication from this study is that investors can generate substantial abnormal returns by adopting a momentum trading strategy, particularly with a long strategy (i.e. winner portfolios).

Comparing different economic linkages among commodity futures

Gasoline (GA) and kerosene (KO) are extracted from crude oil (CO), such that the three fuel commodities share a chemical link. On the other hand, GA also shares an industrial link with natural rubber (NR) and palladium (PA) as complementary commodities that are heavily consumed by the automobile industry. We contrast the information content embedded in the two economic linkages. Focusing on TOCOM futures contracts written on the five commodities and centering on GA, we confirm that incremental information provided by either CO, KO or NR, PA over a buy-and-hold strategy and a naive forecast, are both statistically and economically significant. While the chemical link forecast is more profitable, a double-link forecast generated from a VECM with two cointegrating vectors (KO-GA and GANR prices) outperforms both single-link forecasts based on risk-adjusted profit net of transaction costs. Further comparisons against the profitability of commodity-based momentum strategies documented in Erb and Harvey (2006) and Miffre and Rallis (2007) show that the double-link forecast holds its own against the most profitable of the 75 momentum strategies considered. This strongly suggests that not only are there incremental profits to be gained from harnessing and combining economic links among commodity futures, the resultant incremental profits are economically significant against other proven commodity-based trading strategies in the existing literature.

Implied volatility smiles, option mispricing and net buying pressure : evidence around the global financial crisis

Using the recent global financial crisis as an exogenous setting, we examine the presence and source of implied volatility smile phenomena in Australian S&P ASX 200 index options. We find a pronounced implied volatility smile for index puts in both bull and bear markets and a smile for index calls in the bear but not bull market. Implied volatilities of out-of-the money puts tend to be upwards biased whilst those of calls tend to be downwards biased. We also find that the bias in implied volatilities yields excess returns based on unhedged and delta-neutral trading strategies, suggesting that implied volatilities are related to option mispricing. Net buying pressure from market participants appears to be a source of mispricing in the case of out-of-the-money index puts with excess demand particularly pronounced during the bull period before the global financial crisis unfolded.

How profitable is the Indian stock market?

In this paper, using a range of technical trading and momentum trading strategies, we show that the Indian stock market is profitable. We find robust evidence that investing in some sectors is relatively more profitable than investing in others. We show that sectoral heterogeneity with respect to profitability is a result of the gradual diffusion of information from the market to the sectors. Specifically, we show that while the market predicts returns of sectors, the magnitude of predictability varies with sectors. Our results are robust to a range of trading strategies. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.

Oil price and stock returns of consumers and producers of crude oil

In this paper we investigate how differently stock returns of oil producers and oil consumers are affected from oil price changes. We find that stock returns of oil producers are affected positively by oil price changes regardless of whether oil price is increasing or decreasing. For oil consumers, oil price changes do not affect all consumer sub-sectors and where it does, this effect is heterogeneous. We find that oil price returns have an asymmetric effect on stock returns for most sub-sectors. We devise simple trading strategies and find that while both consumers and producers of oil can make statistically significant profits, investors in oil producer sectors make relatively more profits than investors in oil consumer sectors.

Is the efficient market hypothesis day-of-the-week dependent? Evidence from the banking sector

In this article, we propose a new hypothesis: that the efficient market hypothesis is day-of-the-week-dependent. We apply the test to firms belonging to the banking sector and listed on the NYSE. We find significant evidence that the efficient market hypothesis is day-of-the-week-dependent. Overall, for only 62% of firms, the unit root null hypothesis is rejected on all the five trading days. We also discover that when investors do not account for unit root properties in devising trading strategies, they obtain spurious profits.

Do order imbalances predict Chinese stock returns? New evidence from intraday data

In this paper we examine whether order imbalances can predict the Chinese stock market returns. We use intraday data, a panel data predictive regression model that accounts for persistent and endogenous order imbalances and cross-sectional dependence in returns, and show that order imbalances predict stock returns from 1-minute trading to 90-minute trading. On the basis of this predictability evidence using multiple trading strategies we show that profits persist during the day. These results imply that a source of Chinese market inefficiency is order imbalances.

Price discovery and asset pricing

This paper tests the hypothesis that price discovery influences asset pricing. Our innovations are twofold. First, we estimate time-varying price discovery for a large number (21) of Islamic stock portfolios. Second, we test using a predictive regression model whether or not price discovery predicts stock excess returns. We find from both in-sample and out-of-sample tests that all 21 portfolio excess returns are predictable. We show that a mean-variance investor by tracking price discovery is able to devise profitable trading strategies.