What decision rules might pink-footed geese use to depart on migration? An individual-based model

Decisions taken during migration can have a large effect on the fitness of birds. Migration must be accurately timed with food availability to allow efficient fueling but is also constrained by the optimal arrival date at the breeding site. The decision of when to leave a site can be driven by energetics (sufficient body stores to fuel flight), time-related cues (internal clock under photoperiodic control), or external cues (temperature, food resources). An individual based model (IBM) that allows a mechanistic description of a range of departure decision rules was applied to the spring migration of pink-footed geese (Anser brachyrhynchus) from wintering grounds in Denmark to breeding grounds on Svalbard via 2 Norwegian staging sites. By comparing predicted with observed departure dates, we tested 7 decision rules. The most accurate predictions were obtained from a decision rule based on a combination of cues including the amount of body stores, date, and plant phenology. Decision rules changed over the course of migration with the external cue decreasing in importance and the time-related cue increasing in importance for sites closer to breeding grounds. These results are in accordance with descriptions of goose migration, following the “green-wave”: Geese track the onset of plant growth as it moves northward in spring, with an uncoupling toward the end of the migration if time is running out. We demonstrate the potential of IBMs to study the possible mechanisms underlying stopover ecology in migratory birds and to serve as tools to predict consequences of environmental change.

Estimating cumulative exposure of wildlife to non-lethal disturbance using spatially explicit capture-recapture models

Impact assessments often focus on short-term behavioral responses of animals to human disturbance. However, the cumulative effects caused by repeated behavioral disruptions are of management concern because these effects have the potential to influence individuals' survival and reproduction. We need to estimate individual exposure rates to disturbance to determine cumulative effects. We present a new approach to estimate the spatial exposure of minke whales to whalewatching boats in Faxaflõi Bay, Iceland. We used recent advances in spatially explicit capture-recapture modeling to estimate the probability that whales would encounter a disturbance (i.e., whalewatching boat). We obtained spatially explicit individual encounter histories of individually identifiable animals using photo-identification. We divided the study area into 1-km2 grid cells and considered each cell a spatially distinct sampling unit. We used capture history of individuals to model and estimate spatial encounter probabilities of individual minke whales across the study area, accounting for heterogeneity in sampling effort. We inferred the exposure of individual minke whales to whalewatching vessels throughout the feeding season by estimating individual whale encounters with vessels using the whale encounter probabilities and spatially explicit whalewatching intensity in the same area, obtained from recorded whalewatching vessel tracks. We then estimated the cumulative time whales spent with whalewatching boats to assess the biological significance of whalewatching disturbances. The estimated exposure levels to boats varied considerably between individuals because of both temporal and spatial variations in the activity centers of whales and the whalewatching intensity in the area. However, although some whales were repeatedly exposed to whalewatching boats throughout the feeding season, the estimated cumulative time they spent with boats was very low. Although whalewatching boat interactions caused feeding disruptions for the whales, the estimated low cumulative exposure indicated that the whalewatching industry in its current state likely is not having any long-term negative effects on vital rates.

A graph-based model for context-aware recommendation using implicit feedback data

Recommender systems have been successfully dealing with the problem of information overload. However, most recommendation methods suit to the scenarios where explicit feedback, e.g. ratings, are available, but might not be suitable for the most common scenarios with only implicit feedback. In addition, most existing methods only focus on user and item dimensions and neglect any additional contextual information, such as time and location. In this paper, we propose a graph-based generic recommendation framework, which constructs a Multi-Layer Context Graph (MLCG) from implicit feedback data, and then performs ranking algorithms in MLCG for context-aware recommendation. Specifically, MLCG incorporates a variety of contextual information into a recommendation process and models the interactions between users and items. Moreover, based on MLCG, two novel ranking methods are developed: Context-aware Personalized Random Walk (CPRW) captures user preferences and current situations, and Semantic Path-based Random Walk (SPRW) incorporates semantics of paths in MLCG into random walk model for recommendation. The experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

Modelling habitat suitability of the swamp antechinus (Antechinus minimus maritimus) in the coastal heathlands of southern Victoria, Australia

In recent years, predictive habitat distribution models, derived by combining multivariate statistical analyses with Geographic Information System (GIS) technology, have been recognised for their utility in conservation planning. The size and spatial arrangement of suitable habitat can influence the long-term persistence of some faunal species. In southwestern Victoria, Australia, populations of the rare swamp antechinus (Antechinus minimus maritimus) are threatened by further fragmentation of suitable habitat. In the current study, a spatially explicit habitat suitability model was developed for A. minimus that incorporated a measure of vegetation structure. Models were generated using logistic regression with species presence or absence as the dependent variable and landscape variables, extracted from both GIS data layers and multi-spectral digital imagery, as the predictors. The most parsimonious model, based on the Akaike Information Criterion, was spatially extrapolated in the GIS. Probability of species presence was used as an index of habitat suitability. A negative association between A. minimus presence and both elevation and habitat complexity was evidenced, suggesting a preference for relatively low altitudes and a vegetation structure of low vertical complexity. The predictive performance of the selected model was shown to be high (91%), indicating a good fit of the model to the data. The proportion of the study area predicted as suitable habitat for A. minimus (Probability of occurrence greater-or-equal, slanted0.5) was 11.7%. Habitat suitability maps not only provide baseline information about the spatial arrangement of potentially suitable habitat for a species, but they also help to refine the search for other populations, making them an important conservation tool.

A dynamic ratio-based model for signalling corporate collapse

The recognition of behavioural elements in finance has caused major shifts in the analytic framework pertaining to ratio-based modeling of corporate collapse. The modeling approach so far has been based on the classical rational theory in behavioural economics, which assumes that the financial ratios (i.e., the predictors of collapse) are static over time. The paper argues that, in the absence of rational economic theory, a static model is flawed, and that a suitable model instead is one that reflects the heuristic behavioural framework, which is what characterises behavioural attributes of company directors and in turn influences the accounting numbers used in calculating the financial ratios. This calls for a dynamic model: dynamic in the sense that it does not rely on a coherent assortment of financial ratios for signaling corporate collapse over multiple time periods. This paper provides empirical evidence, using a data set of Australian publicly listed companies, to demonstrate that a dynamic model consistently outperforms its static counterpart in signaling the event of collapse. On average, the overall predictive power of the dynamic model is 86.83% compared to an average overall predictive power of 69.35% for the static model.

A matrix-based model for web page community construction and more

The rapid development of network technologies has made the web a huge information source with its own characteristics. In most cases, traditional database-based technologies are no longer suitable for web information processing and management. For effectively processing and managing web information, it is necessary to reveal intrinsic relationships/structures among concerned web information objects such as web pages. In this work, a set of web pages that have their intrinsic relationships is called a web page community. This paper proposes a matrix-based model to describe relationships among concerned web pages. Based on this model, intrinsic relationships among pages could be revealed, and in turn a web page community could be constructed. The issues that are related to the application of the model are deeply investigated and studied. The concepts of community and intrinsic relationships, as well as the proposed matrix-based model, are then extended to other application areas such as biological data processing. Some application cases of the model in a broad range of areas are presented, demonstrating the potentials of this matrix-based model.

Brand salience and purchasing for consumer banking services : an empirically-based model

The research reported in this paper proposed and tested a model of brand salience for banking services, which incorporates knowledge and brand image as antecedents. A full model of brand salience has not been tested previously, nor has a model of brand salience for services been tested. A quasi-experimental method was utilised. Respondents undertook a free recall exercise using category cues, and then completed multi-item measures of brand knowledge, brand associations, and purchase likelihood. Past purchase was tested via a recall exercise. A usable sample of 270 respondents was gained, and the data were analysed using Structural Equation Modelling (SEM). Analysis of the data found support for a model of brand salience for the banking services category, and found a relationship between brand salience and most recent brand purchased. This paper contributes to the field of branding by proposing and testing a model of brand salience. The research reported in this paper may suggest that advertisers need to design their communications to increase accessibility of brands in the memory of consumers, and that the last brand purchased by consumers will have an effect on their next purchase decision, especially in the consumer banking category.

Brand salience for fast-moving consumer goods : an empirically based model

Brand salience, or the prominence of a brand in memory, has been linked to brand choice and purchase by consumers. The research reported in this paper proposed and tested a model of brand salience for fast-moving consumer goods, which incorporates knowledge, media consumption, and brand image as antecedents. A quasi-experimental method was utilised, where 270 respondents undertook a free recall exercise using category cues, and then completed multiitem measures of brand knowledge, brand associations, and purchase likelihood. Analysis of the data using SEM found support for an empirical model of brand salience where there was a relationship between brand salience and purchase likelihood. The empirical evidence supports building a brand in a primary category, in order to build the depth and breadth of the brand’s associations in consumer memory.

Simulating urban growth in a developing nation's region using a cellular automata-based model

Urbanization is one of the most evident global changes. Research in the field of urban growth modelling has generated models that explore for drivers and components of the urban growth dynamics. Cellular automata (CA) modeling is one of the recent advances, and a number of CA-based models of urban growth have produced satisfactory simulations of spatial urban expansion over time. Most application and test of CA-based models of urban growth which provide likely and reliable simulations has been developed in urban regions of developed nations; urban regions in the United States, in particular. This is because most of the models were developed in universities and research centers of developed nations, and these regions have the required data, which is extensive. Most of the population growth in the world, however, occurs in the developing world. While some European countries show signs of stabilization of their population, in less developed countries, such as India, population still grows exponentially. And this growth is normally uncoordinated, which results in serious environmental and social problems in urban areas. Therefore, the use of existing dynamic–spatial models of urban growth in regions of developing nations could be a means to assist planners and decision makers of these regions to understand and simulate the process of urban growth and test the results of different development strategies. The pattern of growth of urban regions of developing nations, however, seems to be different of the pattern of developed countries. The former use to be more dense and centralized, normally expanding outwards from consolidated urban areas; while the second is normally more fragmented and sparse. The present paper aims to investigate to how extent existing CA-based urban growth models tested in developed nations can also be applied to a developing country urban area. The urban growth model was applied to Porto Alegre City, Brazil. An expected contiguous expansion from existing urban areas has been obtained as following the historical trends of growth of the region. Moreover, the model was sensitive and able to portray different pattern of growth in the study area by changing the value of its parameters.

A chemotactic-based model for spatial activity recognition

Spatial activity recognition in everyday environments is particularly challenging due to noise incorporated during video-tracking. We address the noise issue of spatial recognition with a biologically inspired chemotactic model that is capable of handling noisy data. The model is based on bacterial chemotaxis, a process that allows bacteria to survive by changing motile behaviour in relation to environmental dynamics. Using chemotactic principles, we propose the chemotactic model and evaluate its classification performance in a smart house environment. The model exhibits high classification accuracy (99%) with a diverse 10 class activity dataset and outperforms the discrete hidden Markov model (HMM). High accuracy (>89%) is also maintained across small training sets and through incorporation of varying degrees of artificial noise into testing sequences. Importantly, unlike other bottom–up spatial activity recognition models, we show that the chemotactic model is capable of recognizing simple interwoven activities.

Simplified physically based model for estimating effective floc density

This paper applies dimensional analysis to propose an alternative model for estimating the effective density of flocs (Δρf). The model takes into account the effective density of the primary particles, in addition to the sizes of the floc and primary particles, and does not consider the concept of self-similarity. The model contains three dimensionless products and two empirical parameters (αf and βf), which were calibrated by using data available in the literature. Values of αf=0.7 and βf=0.8 were obtained. The average value of the primary particle size (Dp) for the data used in the analysis, inferred from the new model, was found to vary from 0.05 μm to 100 μm with a mean value of 2.5 μm. Good comparisons were obtained in comparing the estimated floc-settling velocity on the basis of the proposed model for effective floc density with the measured value.

Towards an integrative attachment-based model of relationship functioning

Based on attachment theory, this study developed a theory-based model of heterosexual relationship functioning that examined both proximal and distal factors and both actor and partner effects. A particular focus was on the underexplored issue of double-mediated effects between attachment orientation and relationship satisfaction. Data were collected from a community sample of 95 cohabiting and married couples with a mean age of 39.30 years. Participants completed measures of attachment, commitment, provision of partner support, trust, intimacy, destructive conflict management, and relationship satisfaction. The hypothesized model was largely supported. The association between attachment orientation and relationship satisfaction was mediated through a series of actor and partner variables. No gender differences were found across actor paths; however, differences were found in partner effects for men and women. The model has important implications for relationship researchers and practitioners. © 2013 The British Psychological Society.

Identifying affinity classes of inorganic materials binding sequences via a graph-based model

Rapid advances in bionanotechnology have recently generated growing interest in identifying peptides that bind to inorganic materials and classifying them based on their inorganic material affinities. However, there are some distinct characteristics of inorganic materials binding sequence data that limit the performance of many widely-used classification methods when applied to this problem. In this paper, we propose a novel framework to predict the affinity classes of peptide sequences with respect to an associated inorganic material. We first generate a large set of simulated peptide sequences based on an amino acid transition matrix tailored for the specific inorganic material. Then the probability of test sequences belonging to a specific affinity class is calculated by minimizing an objective function. In addition, the objective function is minimized through iterative propagation of probability estimates among sequences and sequence clusters. Results of computational experiments on two real inorganic material binding sequence data sets show that the proposed framework is highly effective for identifying the affinity classes of inorganic material binding sequences. Moreover, the experiments on the structural classification of proteins (SCOP) data set shows that the proposed framework is general and can be applied to traditional protein sequences.

Constitutive analysis of hot deformation behavior of a Ti6Al4V alloy using physical based model

The effect of deformation parameters on the flow behavior of a Ti6Al4V alloy has been studied to understand the deformation mechanisms during hot compression. Cylindrical samples with partially equiaxed grains were deformed in the α+β phase region at different thermo-mechanical conditions. To develop components with tailored properties, the physically based Estrin and Mecking (EM) model for the work hardening/dynamic recovery combined with the Avrami equation for dynamic recrystallization was used to predict the flow stress at varying process conditions. The EM model revealed good predictability up to the peak strain, however, at strain rates below 0.01s^-1, a higher B value was observed due to the reduced density of dislocation tangles. In contrast, the flow softening model revealed higher value of constants a and b at high strain rates due to the reduction in the volume fraction of dynamic recrystallization and larger peak strain. The predicted flow stress using the combined EM+Avrami model revealed good agreement with the measured flow stress resulted in very low average absolute relative error value. The microstructural analysis of the samples suggests the formation of coarse equiaxed grains together with the increased β phase fraction at low strain rate leads to a higher flow softening.