Simultaneous volatility transmissions and spillover effects: U.S. and Hong Kong stock and futures markets

Contemporaneous transmission effects across volatilities of the Hong Kong Stock and Index futures markets and futures volume of trade are tested by employing a structural systems approach. Competing measures of volatility spillover, constructed from the overnight U.S. S&P500 index futures, are tested and found to impact on the Hong Kong asset return volatility and volume of trade patterns. The examples utilize intra-day 15-min sampled data from this medium-sized Asia Pacific equity and derivative exchange. Both the intra- and inter-day patterns in the Hong Kong market are allowed for in the estimation process.

Simultaneous volatility transmission and spillover effects

Simultaneous volatility models are developed and shown to be separate from multivariate GARCH estimators. An example is provided that allows for simultaneous and unidirectional volatility and volume of trade effects. These effects are tested using intraday data from the Australian cash index and index futures markets. Overnight volatility spillover effects from the United States S&P500 index futures markets are tested using alternative estimates of this US market volatility. The simultaneous volatility model proves to be robust to alternative specifications of returns equations and to misspecification of the direction of volatility causality.

Contemporaneous intra-day volume, option, and futures volatility transmissions across parallel markets

The primary objective of this article is to investigate volatility transmission across three parallel markets operating on the Sydney Futures Exchange (SFE), both within and out of sample. Half-hourly observations are sampled from transaction data for the share price index (SPI) futures, SPI futures options, and 90-day bank accepted bill (BAB) futures markets, and the analysis is carried out using the simultaneous volatility (SVL) system of equations as well as competing volatility models. The results confirm the poor ability of GARCH models to fit intraday data. This study also applies an artificial nesting procedure to evaluate the out-of-sample volatility forecasts. Implied volatility has very limited (if any) predictive power when evaluated in isolation, whereas the SVL model with implied volatility embedded provides incremental information relative to competing model forecasts.

Market makers v's the general public : a first look at S & P500 futures trade data

This paper considers 15 minute records of trading volume and traded prices coinciding with the reporting intervals required by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Records are extracted from trade records for market trade and also two way trade between market makers (CT1) and the general public (CT4) from January 1994 to June 2004. Futures price records are matched with S&P500 cash index price records. Simultaneous volatility models are specified and estimated to test trading volume to futures volatility lead/lag effects and also futures volatility to cash index volatility lead/lag effects. As we disaggregate from the market records to CT1 and CT4 records and further into year to year samples volume to futures volatility leading effects and also futures volatility to cash volatility leading effects dominate. The results raise important issues for risk management and dynamic hedging models employing intra-day trader data. A number of important issues for further analysis are also raised in this paper.

Dispersion of information or market behaviour : general public trading in S & P 500 index futures

This paper considers 15 minute records of trading volume and traded prices coinciding with the reporting intervals required by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Records are extracted from trade records for two way trade between market makers (CTI1) and the general public (CTI4) from January 1994 to June 2004. Futures price records are matched with S&P500 cash index price records. Simultaneous volatility models are specified and estimated to test trading volume to futures volatility lead/lag effects and also futures volatility to cash index volatility lead/lag effects. There is evidence that existing theoretical models of the general public trading behaviour do not explain such behaviour in these very actively traded markets. These effects can depend more on market conditions than what is suggested in theoretical models.

Introduction of electronic trading in index futures : volatility and volume effects

There is continuing debate in the US over full introduction of electronic trading in those index futures contracts that are still traded at the CME via open outcry. Since the late 1990s major international exchanges trading index futures contracts have converted to full electronic trading. Recent empirical studies have focused on effects on bid/ask spreads and related price volatility following these changes. We take a different approach and investigate and test for structural change in conditional volatility and volume effects following the shift to electronic trading in the Australian Share Price Index futures contract. Multiple Switching point GARCH models are employed with the data sampled at 5, 15 and 30-minute intervals from transaction records supplied by the Sydney Futures Exchange. There is significant evidence of structural changes in both the persistence of volatility shocks and simultaneous volume effects following the change to screen trading in this futures market.

Scaling the volatility of credit spreads: evidence from Australian dollar eurobonds

The linear rescaling of the variance of an asset's return is used by many asset pricing models when an annualised risk coefficient is required. However, this approach may not be appropriate for time series, which are not independent and identically distributed (IID). This paper investigates the scaling relationships for daily credit spreads, from January 1995 to May 1998, between AAA-, AA-, and A-rated Australian dollar denominated Eurobonds with maturities of 2, 5, 7, and 10 years. The credit spread return all display similar scaling properties with the estimated standard deviation, based upon a scaling at the square root of time, significantly underestimating the actual level of risk predicted from a normal distribution. These results have implications for risk managers and trading of credit spread instruments.

Structural effects and spillovers in HSIF, HSI and S & P500 volatility

We adopt a BEKK-GARCH framework and employ a systematic approach to jointly examine structural breaks in the Hong Kong cash index and index futures volatility and volatility spillovers from the S&P 500 cash and futures. Multiple switching dummy variables are included in the variance equations to test for any structural changes in the autoregressive volatility structure due to the events that have taken place in the Hong Kong market. Abolishment of the up-tick rule, increase of initial margins and electronic trading of the Hang Seng Index Futures (HSIF) are found to have significant impact when US market spillovers are excluded from a restricted model. Volatility spillovers from the US market are found to have a significant impact and account for some mis-specification in the restricted model.

Deformation behaviour of a cylinder under simultaneous compression and torsion

A number of experiments involving the compression of an Aluminum cylinder with concurrent die rotation were carried out. Two important features were observed: one was that die rotation reduced the degree of bulging and the other was that the compression load decreased. An upper bound analysis with a velocity field consisting of a compound exponential cusp representation was utilized to obtain an approximate analytical solution in a closed form. The theoretical result reproduced the reduction in bulging severity with die rotation as well as the changes in compression pressure.

Regulatory Change v's volume of trade effects in HSIF and HSI volatility

In an earlier paper we adopted a BEKK-GARCH framework and employed a systematic approach to examine structural breaks in the HSIF and HSI volatility. Switching dummy variables were included and tested in the variance equations to check for any structural changes in the autoregressive volatility structure due to the events that have taken place in the Hong Kong market. A Bi-variate GARCH model with 3 switching points was found to be superior as it captured the potential structural changes in return volatilities. Abolishment of the uptick rule, increase of initial margins for the HSIF and electronic trading of HSIF were found to have significant impact on the volatility structure of HSIF and HSI. In this paper we include measures of daily trading volume from both markets in the estimation. Likelihood ratio tests indicate the switching dummy variables become insignificant and the GARCH effects diminish but remain significant.

State and input simultaneous estimation for a class of nonlinear systems

This paper addresses the problem of estimating simultaneously the state and input of a class of nonlinear systems. Here, the systems nonlinear part comprises a Lipschitz nonlinear function with respect to the state and input, and a state-dependent unknown function including additive disturbance as well as uncertain/nonlinear/time-varying terms. Upon satisfying some conditions, the observer design problem can be solved via a Riccati inequality or a LMI-based technique with asymptotic estimation guaranteed. A numerical example is included for illustration.

Regulatory change, structural breaks, and transmission effects in HSIF and HSI volatility

A systematic BEKK-GARCH model with multiple switch points in the variance equations captures the structural changes that have taken place in the Hong Kong markets. Abolishment of the uptick rule in the Hong Kong stock market, increase of initial margins, and electronic trading of Hang Seng Index Futures are found to have significant impacts. These changes affect the volatility structure of the HSI and HSIF and hence their lead-lag relationship. The multivariate GARCH model with three specific switching points is found to be superior to any other combination of up to six separate switch points.

Simultaneous determination of irinotecan (CPT-11) and SN-38 in tissue culture media and cancer cells by high performance liquid chromatography: Application to cellular metabolism and accumulation studies

A simple and sensitive HPLC method was developed to simultaneously determine CPT-11 and its major metabolite SN-38 in culture media and cell lysates. Camptothecin (CPT) was used as internal standard (I.S.). Compounds were eluted with acetonitrile–50 mM disodium hydrogen phosphate buffer containing 10 mM sodium 1-heptane-sulfonate, with the pH adjusted to 3.0 using 85% (w/v) orthophosphoric acid (27/73, v/v) by a Hyperclon ODS (C18) column (200 mm × 4.6 mm i.d.), with detection at excitation and emission wavelengths of 380 and 540 nm, respectively. The average extraction efficiencies were 96.9–108.3% for CPT-11 in culture media and 94.3–107.2% for CPT-11 in cell lysates; and 87.7–106.8% for SN-38 in culture media and 90.1–105.6% for SN-38 in cell lysates. Within- and between-day precision and accuracy varied from 0.1 to 10.3%. The limit of quantitation (precision and accuracy <20%) was 5.0 and 2.0 ng/ml for CPT-11 and 1.0 and 0.5 ng/ml for SN-38 in culture media and cell lysates, respectively. This method was successfully applied to quantitate the cellular accumulation and metabolism of CPT-11 and SN-38 in H4-II-E, a rat hepatoma cell line.

State and input simultaneous estimation for a class of time-delay systems with uncertainties

This brief addresses the problem of estimation of both the states and the unknown inputs of a class of systems that are subject to a time-varying delay in their state variables, to an unknown input, and also to an additive uncertain, nonlinear disturbance. Conditions are derived for the solvability of the design matrices of a reduced-order observer for state and input estimation, and for the stability of its dynamics. To improve computational efficiency, a delay-dependent asymptotic stability condition is then developed using the linear matrix inequality formulation. A design procedure is proposed and illustrated by a numerical example.