Portfolio diversification and share price behavior : some evidence from the Taiwan Stock Exchange

This dissertation consists of four separate but closely related studies which investigate different aspects of share price behavior on the Taiwan Stock Exchange over the period 1980-89: 1.The benefits of diversification available to investors using the Markowitz model and the Single Model Index. 2. The applicability of the CAPM to the TSE over the decade. 3. Regularities in proce sequences. 4. Market reaction to the announcements of stock dividends, right issues and combinations of both.

Short-run performance of recent Australian on-market share buy-back announcements

Share buy-backs (or share repurchases) have become increasingly popular among Australian companies during the recent times. One of the aims of share buy-back is to increase the shareholders' wealth by increasing the market price of company shares. While there are several ways of buying backs shares, on-market buy-backs is the most popular method of share repurchase in Australia. Australian listed companies have announced more than two hundred on-market share buy-backs over the past three years. The aim of this paper is to examine the short-run market performance of these recent on-market buy-back announcements.

Short-term effect of on-market buy-back announcements on the share price is an issue, which is theoretically interesting and practically important. Buy-back announcements are believed to convey a signal to the market (i.e., signalling effect). If the market considers this signal positively, the short-run price of the shares would increase. If the signal were considered negatively, the short-run price of shares would decrease. If there is no signalling content or the signal is neutral the price would remain the same. In this study, signalling effect of share buy-back announcements is empirically examined using most recent Australian data. The total population of on-market buy-back announcements that have been lodged with Australian Stock Exchange by Australian listed companies during the period from 1 January 2000 to 10 March 2003 are included in this study. The abnormal market return over the short-run (announcement day and 10 trading days centred on the announcement date) is examined using the All Ordinaries Accumulation Index as the reference portfolio. The daily abnormal returns (AR) and cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) during the event period are computed. The results indicate that the Australian market generally positively reacts to on-market buy-back announcements.

Determinants of stock price bubbles

In this paper we propose a cross-sectional model of the determinants of asset price bubbles. Using 589 firms listed on the NYSE, we find conclusive evidence that trading volume and share price volatility have statistically significant effects on asset price bubbles. However, evidence from sector-based stocks is mixed. We find that for firms belonging to electricity, energy, financial, and banking sectors, and for the smallest size firms, trading volume has a statistically significant and positive effect on bubbles. We do not discover any robust evidence of a statistically significant effect of share price volatility on bubbles at the sector-level.

Accountability and board functionality: National Australia Bank's experience

The National Australia Bank’s (NAB) experience of corporate governance has been contrary to current standards of good corporate governance, accountability and risk management. Over the last few years NAB’s misadventures have brought it under intensive media scrutiny with the HomeSide losses and the investigation by the Securities and Exchange Commission in the USA for breaches of auditor independence. More recently the unauthorised trading by its foreign exchange dealers violated NABs risk management practices and the subsequent board crisis resulted in significant downgrading of the share price on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX). This paper briefly reviews the international history of corporate accountability and its growth in Australia. The increasing shareholder and legislative pressure to improve sustainability, accountability and board functionality have driven these issues to the forefront of Governing Boards’ agendas worldwide. The board remains ultimately responsible for all actions of the company and this is highlighted by APRA’s recent release of the new governance standard APG510 for implementation by October 2006. The impact of NAB’s board dysfunction on its overall performance is compared with the other major banks in Australia. Cost efficiency ratios, share price and total shareholder return are used as measures of performance and profitability. It is clear, from NAB’s recent experience, as the worst performer of all the majors, with a 19.7% fall in net profit and a cost to income ratio of 57.4% in 2004, that the NAB board needs to improve its performance and accountability to meet a sustainable increase in profitability and higher return for investors.

Contemporaneous intra-day volume, option, and futures volatility transmissions across parallel markets

The primary objective of this article is to investigate volatility transmission across three parallel markets operating on the Sydney Futures Exchange (SFE), both within and out of sample. Half-hourly observations are sampled from transaction data for the share price index (SPI) futures, SPI futures options, and 90-day bank accepted bill (BAB) futures markets, and the analysis is carried out using the simultaneous volatility (SVL) system of equations as well as competing volatility models. The results confirm the poor ability of GARCH models to fit intraday data. This study also applies an artificial nesting procedure to evaluate the out-of-sample volatility forecasts. Implied volatility has very limited (if any) predictive power when evaluated in isolation, whereas the SVL model with implied volatility embedded provides incremental information relative to competing model forecasts.

"Information effect" of economic news: SPI futures

The present study investigates the behaviour of Share Price Index (SPI) futures returns, volatility, and trading volume behaviour around the announcement of Current Account Deficit (CAD), Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Inflation (CPI). The futures market data are sampled at 1-, 5-, and 10-min intervals at the announcement time. After controlling for risk, a significant positive abnormal return can be earned based on the good news release. However, it is unlikely that traders could make an economic profit by exploiting this effect. In this sense, this futures market returns are found to react efficiently to good news. Volatility behaviour around announcements provides the same conclusion. As for the relationship between returns, volatility, and volume upon information arrival, returns are positively related to trading volume, which is inconsistent with the ‘short sales constraint’ theory. Trading volume is found to increase as the level of volatility rises. The redenomination of the SPI futures and options contract from A$100 to A$25 per basis point is found to increase trading volume in excess of that expected due to the redenomination. However, market return and volatility are unaffected by the redenomination.

Modelling linkages between Australian financial futures markets

This paper investigates the dynamic interdependence of the Australian financial futures markets. A multivariate EGARCH model is developed to investigate linkages and stochastic volatility interactions between the 10-year Treasury bond, 90-day bank-accepted bill, and the All Ordinaries share price index futures markets. In this analysis, the empirical results strongly suggest that significant volatility interactions are evident across the 3 markets.

Comprehensive look at the re-examination of the re-valuation effect of auditor switch and its determinants in Malaysia : a post crises analysis from Bursa Malaysia

This study examines economic rational for auditor switch and its impact on share revaluation of 51 switched firms main board of Bursa Malaysia for the post crisis period (1997-2002). This study adopted both logistic regression model and event study methodology to examine the determinants of auditor switches and its impact to share price. Findings show that the auditor switch decision of Malaysian listed finns for post crisis period has been partly explained by audit report, turnover growth and firm's performance. While, findings suggest no significant evidence of wealth effect from auditor switch announcements once switches were divided along the line of auditor switch type, different findings emerged.

Introduction of electronic trading in index futures : volatility and volume effects

There is continuing debate in the US over full introduction of electronic trading in those index futures contracts that are still traded at the CME via open outcry. Since the late 1990s major international exchanges trading index futures contracts have converted to full electronic trading. Recent empirical studies have focused on effects on bid/ask spreads and related price volatility following these changes. We take a different approach and investigate and test for structural change in conditional volatility and volume effects following the shift to electronic trading in the Australian Share Price Index futures contract. Multiple Switching point GARCH models are employed with the data sampled at 5, 15 and 30-minute intervals from transaction records supplied by the Sydney Futures Exchange. There is significant evidence of structural changes in both the persistence of volatility shocks and simultaneous volume effects following the change to screen trading in this futures market.

A-REIT rights issues

Purpose – This is the first REIT paper to seek to empirically examine potential influencing factors on the discounts and underwriting fees of Australian REIT rights issues.

Design/methodology/approach – Using a methodology similar to Owen and Suchard, and Armitage, a sample of 62 A-REIT rights issues during 2001-2009 is analyzed. A variety of potential factors influencing discounts and underwriting fees are explored.

Findings – Over A$20 billion was raised by A-REIT rights issues during 2001-2009 (this around three times that raised through A-REIT initial public offerings during the same period). The mean offer price was discounted around 9.5 percent from the current market price and underwriting fees averaged 2.9 percent of gross proceeds raised – both substantially less than for industrial rights issues. The standard deviation of daily returns for the past year appears to influence the percentage discount offered to subscribers. This volatility was particularly noticeable in 2008 and 2009, during the global financial crisis, where new issues were discounted substantially so as to raise equity to repay debt. This historical risk variable appears paramount in determining the discounts to subscribers and fees to underwriters.

Practical implications – A-REITs seeking to minimize the discounts offered to subscribers and to minimize their underwriting costs with rights issue equity capital raisings must first minimize their share price volatility.

Originality/value – This paper adds to the international costs of capital raising literature of REITs by examining such costs with A-REIT rights issues and is the first paper to examine factors influencing these costs.

An investigation into the drivers of Australian REIT merger and acquisition announcements

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to use Australian Real Estate Investment Trust (A-REIT) data to empirically examine potential influencing factors on A-REITs becoming a bidder or a target in the mergers and acquisitions (M&A) area.

Design/methodology/approach – This study uses logistic regression analysis to investigate the odds of publically traded A-REITs being either a bidder or a target as a function of a number of financial and corporate governance variables.

Findings – Prior research in the US REIT M&A area has shown that target size is inversely related to takeover likelihood; in contrast, the authors’ Australian results show that size has a positive impact. Prior research on share price and asset performance has shown that underperformance increases the odds of an entity becoming a target, but this paper’s results further support these findings and provide confirmation of the inefficient management hypothesis. For acquirers it was found that leverage, cash balances, management structure, the level of shares held by related parties and the global financial crisis have an important impact on bidder likelihood.

Practical implications – Given that the literature suggests that investors can earn significant positive abnormal returns by owning targets, but incur significant abnormal losses by owning bidders, at announcement, this study will be useful to fund managers and other investors in A-REITs by investigating the characteristics of those firms that become targets and bidders.

Originality/value – This paper adds to the recent US REIT M&A literature by examining the second biggest REIT market in the world and reporting a number of factors that might influence A-REITs to become targets or bidders.

The role of optimistic news stories in IPO pricing

This study investigates the influence of optimistic news stories on first-day pricing of initial public offerings (IPOs) in Australia between 1995 and 2005. Unlike the United States, Australia has no quiet-period regulation limiting the dissemination of information from media before IPO listing dates. We find that optimistic news stories are negatively associated with IPO underpricing. Results from a relative valuation model show that IPOs which received positive news stories ahead of the first trading day are not overpriced relative to their industry benchmarks. These results suggest that optimistic news stories mitigate information asymmetry and adverse selection problems. However, optimistic news stories do not appear to inflate the share price on the first day of trading. Our findings suggest that regulation mandating a 'quiet period' before the commencement of trading in IPOs is neither necessary nor desirable in the Australian environment.