Price exhaustion and number preference : time and price confluence in Australian stock prices

Confluence occurs when different trading filters generate signals that point to the same directional move. Using regression analysis, this paper investigates confluence trading signals associated with number preference and price exhaustion, for a sample of Australian stocks. The results show that certain price levels tend to act as psychological barriers, and that price exhaustion signals are a real phenomenon in the Australian stock market. It is shown also that confluence exists in the Australian stock market. Importantly, confluence is associated with price retracements that are of economic and statistical significance, offering profitable trading opportunities. The results suggest that Australian stocks do not follow a random walk.

Global factor trade with differentiated factor prices and factor intensities

Relaxing the assumption of internationally identical factor intensity techniques in the HOV model creates two challenges. First, computing actual factor intensity techniques of different countries requires detailed input-output tables and factor usage data, which are not always available. Second, determinants of the factor intensity technique differences across countries need to be identified. This paper explores the role of relative factor price differences in the determination of factor intensity technique differences across countries and proposes an inferring method that infers factor intensity techniques of different countries based on relative factor price differences. The HOV model is then modified accordingly.

Commerce mondial des facteurs de production quand les prix des facteurs sont différenciés et les intensités dans l'intensité d'utilisation des facteurs différentes. Relaxer le postulat de techniques à intensité identique de facteurs de production d'un pays à l'autre dans un modèle Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) pose deux défis. D'abord, mesurer les intensités en facteurs des techniques en place dans les divers pays réclame des tableaux interindustriels détaillés et des données sur l'utilisation des facteurs qui ne sont pas toujours disponibles. Ensuite, il faut identifier les déterminants des différences d'intensités en facteurs des techniques d'un pays à l'autre. Ce mémoire explore le rôle des différences dans les prix relatifs des facteurs dans la détermination des différences d'intensité en facteurs d'un pays à l'autre, et propose une méthode qui permet d'inférer les différences d'intensité en facteurs des techniques des divers pays à partir des différences dans les prix relatifs des facteurs. Le modèle HOV est alors modifié en conséquence.

In the shadow of the volcanoes: the impact of intervention on the nutrition and health status of Rwandan refugee children in Zaire two years from the exodus

Objective: To evaluate the public health and nutritional situation of refugee children in Katale camp, Eastern Zaire, after two years of nutritional and health intervention from 1994 to 1996.
Design: Cross-sectional survey using a two-stage cluster sampling method. Anthropometric data were collected from 28 May 1996 to 4 June 1996. Retrospective review of food basket monitoring data over the preceding six months and the United Nations High Commission for Refugees' weekly mortality data was conducted. Measles immunisation coverage data were surveyed simultaneously, using child health records.
Main outcome measures: Nutritional status measured by weight-for-height index (W/H), measles immunisation status, average daily energy content of the general food ration and crude mortality rate.
Setting: Katale refugee camp, Zaire, June 1996.
Analysis: Weight-for-height index and proportion of immunised children were computed using EPINUT, part of EPINFO computer package.
Results: Malnutrition was found to be most prevalent in children aged six to 29 months old (W/H < -2 Z-score and/or oedema: 6.2%; 95% CI: 3.4%, 10.6%), among whom the malnutrition rate was almost double the overall malnutrition prevalence (W/H < -2 Z-score and/or oedema: 3.5% (95% CI: 1.5%, 7.2%). The general food ration, although conforming to the World Food Program minimum standards of adequacy in terms of variety (being composed of cereals, oil, beans, blended cereal and legume mixes and salt), provided only 6240 kJ on average (95% CI: 5040, 7140 kJ) per person per day, thus meeting only 57% to 84% of the minimum energy requirements for an adult, and falling well below the needs for sub groups with higher nutritional requirements such as children, pregnant and breastfeeding women and the sick. Measles immunisation coverage in children nine to 59 months was 88.6%. The crude mortality rate was found to be 0.3 per 10 000 per day. Refugees received 15 litres of clean water per person per day.
Conclusion: Public health interventions in Katale camp 1994 to 1996 had reduced mortality and morbidity rates dramatically. This was not reflected in the malnutrition rates for children under five years, that remained stable after an initial fall despite two years of nutritional intervention. The factors contributed to this were related to an inadequate general food ration (due to food shortages), lack of ability to supplement the diet, (due to economic restrictions that were imposed in the camp) and inequities in the food distribution process (due to food being siphoned off by camp leaders for military purposes).

Shadow boxing: Indonesian writers and the Ramayana in the new order

This article is a study of the ideas, visions, and styles of a number of Indonesia's writers in the New Order-in particular, the final years of the New Order-who chose to rework and reinterpret the Ramayana epic of the Javanese wayang kulit shadow puppet theatre. The deliberate choice by these writers to use Indonesian as their medium of linguistic communication has proven to be a decision in favor of distancing themselves from their mother-tongue, Javanese, and of targeting a larger "national" audience, thus signaling their concern for non-Javanese Indonesians. By the same token, the Indonesian language of wayang literary representations was often heavily Javanese in its flavor and style, and the indigenized wayang characters and plots appropriated were also, naturally, very much regional in origin.

A range of factors influencing Sydney dwelling sale prices

This paper presents findings from an evaluation of a range of factors considered to influence dwelling sale prices in Sydney. The aim is to determine whether factors such as dwelling type, location, population structure and sales transaction type. significantly influence dwelling sale prices in Sydney. A review of the local market literature reveals that this belief has not been validated in the recent times. Hence, some of these factors may be inadequately exploited by dwelling investors. A sample of 33 dwelling Units from eight randomly selected suburbs located within 20kms of the Sydney Central Business District (CBD) was studied, and data analysed using simple Pearson's correlation. Significant associations were only found between Australian-born population proportion and dwelling type, and the sale prices. Hence, within the scope and methodology limitations. This paper concludes that, while dwelling type and Australian-born population proportion of a suburb are significantly associated with dwelling sale prices, location. population density and sales transaction type, are virtually not, as earlier held. The implication is for the amount of effort expended on location models, sales transaction marketing and population size studies. to be reviewed, at least, in relation to dwellings. This message resonates to cities and locations of similar characteristics as Sydney.

Mean reversion in stock prices: new evidence from panel unit root tests

Purpose – There are several studies that investigate evidence for mean reversion in stock prices. However, there is no consensus as to whether stock prices are mean reverting or random walk (unit root) processes. The goal of this paper is to re-examine mean reversion in stock prices.
Design/methodology/approach – The authors use five different panel unit root tests, namely the Im, Pesaran and Shin t-bar test statistic, the Levin and Lin test, the Im, Lee, and Tieslau Lagrangian multiplier test statistic, the seemingly unrelated regression test, and the multivariate augmented Dickey Fuller test advocated by Taylor and Sarno.
Findings – The main finding is that there is no mean reversion of stock prices, consistent with the efficient market hypothesis.
Research limitations/implications – One issue not considered by this study is the role of structural breaks. It may be the case that the efficient market hypothesis is contingent on structural breaks in stock prices. Future studies should model structural breaks.
Practical implications – The findings have implications for econometric modelling, in particular forecasting.
Originality/value – This paper adds to the scarce literature on the mean reverting property of stock prices based on panel data; thus, it should be useful for researchers.

Impact of tobacco tax reforms on tobacco prices and tobacco use in Australia

OBJECTIVE: To document the impact of changes to tobacco taxes on the range and price of tobacco sold during the period when the National Tobacco Campaign (NTC) was run.

DATA SOURCES: Information about brand availability, pack size, and price was extracted from Australian Retail Tobacconist. A retail observational survey was undertaken to monitor actual retail prices. Data on cigarette prices, brands, packet configurations, and outlets from which they were purchased were obtained from the benchmark and three follow up population telephone surveys conducted to evaluate the NTC.

METHOD: Data from the three sources were compared to see the extent to which the impact of tax changes had been offset by greater retail discounting and a more concerted effort by consumers to purchase cheaper products.

RESULTS: Smokers were unable to cushion themselves from the sharp price increases that occurred during the third phase of the NTC. Both average recommended retail prices of manufactured cigarettes and average actual cigarette prices paid by smokers increased by 25% in real prices.

CONCLUSION: The fall in smoking prevalence over the first two phases of the NTC was substantially greater than would be expected due to tax changes alone. The fall in smoking consumption over the first two phases was slightly less than would be expected and in the third considerably higher than would be expected.

A winner determination algorithm for multi-unit combinatorial auctions with reserve prices

Combinatorial auction mechanisms have been used in many applications such as resource and task allocation, planning and time scheduling in multi-agent systems, in which the items to be allocated are complementary or substitutable. The winner determination in combinatorial auction itself is a NP-complete problem, and has attracted many attentions of researchers world wide. Some outstanding achievements have been made including CPLEX and CABOB algorithms on this topic. To our knowledge, the research into multi-unit combinatorial auctions with reserve prices considered is more or less ignored. To this end, we present a new algorithm for multi-unit combinatorial auctions with reserve prices, which is based on Sandholm's work. An efficient heuristic function is developed for the new algorithm. Experiments have been conducted. The experimental results show that auctioneer agent can find the optimal solution efficiently for a reasonable problem scale with our algorithm.

Do shocks to G7 stock prices have a permanent effect? : evidence from panel unit root tests with structural change

There is a plethora of studies that investigate evidence for the behaviour of stock prices using univariate techniques for unit roots. Whether or not stock prices are characterised by a unit root have implications for the efficient market hypothesis, which asserts that returns of a stock market are unpredictable from previous price changes. The extant literature has found mixed evidence on the integrational properties of stock prices. In this paper, for the first time, we provide evidence on the unit root hypothesis for G7 stock price indices using the Lagrangian multiplier panel unit root test that allows for structural breaks. Our main finding is that stock prices are stationary processes, inconsistent with the efficient market hypothesis.