Quantitative microbial risk assessment models for consumption of raw vegetables irrigated with reclaimed water

Quantitative microbial risk assessment models for estimating the annual risk of enteric virus infection associated with consuming raw vegetables that have been overhead irrigated with nondisinfected secondary treated reclaimed water were constructed. We ran models for several different scenarios of crop type, viral concentration in effluent, and time since last irrigation event. The mean annual risk of infection was always less for cucumber than for broccoli, cabbage, or lettuce. Across the various crops, effluent qualities, and viral decay rates considered, the annual risk of infection ranged from 10–3 to 10–1 when reclaimed-water irrigation ceased 1 day before harvest and from 10–9 to 10–3 when it ceased 2 weeks before harvest. Two previously published decay coefficients were used to describe the die-off of viruses in the environment. For all combinations of crop type and effluent quality, application of the more aggressive decay coefficient led to annual risks of infection that satisfied the commonly propounded benchmark of ≤10–4, i.e., one infection or less per 10,000 people per year, providing that 14 days had elapsed since irrigation with reclaimed water. Conversely, this benchmark was not attained for any combination of crop and water quality when this withholding period was 1 day. The lower decay rate conferred markedly less protection, with broccoli and cucumber being the only crops satisfying the 10–4 standard for all water qualities after a 14-day withholding period. Sensitivity analyses on the models revealed that in nearly all cases, variation in the amount of produce consumed had the most significant effect on the total uncertainty surrounding the estimate of annual infection risk. The models presented cover what would generally be considered to be worst-case scenarios: overhead irrigation and consumption of vegetables raw. Practices such as subsurface, furrow, or drip irrigation and postharvest washing/disinfection and food preparation could substantially lower risks and need to be considered in future models, particularly for developed nations where these extra risk reduction measures are more common.

Is adiposity an under-recognized risk factor for tendinopathy? A systematic review

Objective : Tendon injuries have been reported to occur more frequently in individuals with increased adiposity. Treatment also appears to have poorer outcomes among these individuals. Our objective was to examine the extent and consistency of associations between adiposity and tendinopathy.

Methods : A systematic review of observational studies was conducted. Eight electronic databases were searched (Allied and Complementary Medicine, Biological Abstracts, CINAHL, Current Contents, EMBase, Medline, SPORTDiscus, and Web of Science) and citation tracking was performed on included reports. Studies were included if they compared adiposity between subjects with and without tendon injury or examined adiposity as a predictor of conservative treatment success.

Results : Four longitudinal cohorts, 14 cross-sectional studies, 8 case-control studies, and 2 interventional studies (28 in total) met the inclusion criteria, providing a total of 19,949 individuals. Forty-two subpopulations were identified, 18 of which showed elevated adiposity to be associated with tendon injury (43%). Sensitivity analyses indicated a clustering of positive findings among studies that included clinical patients (81% positive) and among case-control studies (77% positive).

Conclusion : Elevated adiposity is frequently associated with tendon injury. Published reports suggest that elevated adiposity is a risk factor for tendon injury, although this association appears to vary depending on aspects of study design and measurement. Adiposity is of particular interest in tendon research because, unlike a number of other reported risk factors for tendon injury, it is somewhat preventable and modifiable. Further research is required to determine if reducing adiposity will reduce the risk of tendon injury or improve the results of treatment.

Options for change in the Australian cervical cancer screening program in context of HPV detection and vaccination

Introduction:
Cervical cancer screening has been implemented for over a decade in Australia and has significantly reduced the mortality and morbidity of the disease. The emergence of new technologies for cervical cancer, such as the Human Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine and DNA testing has encouraged debate regarding the effective use of resources in cervical cancer prevention. The present study evaluates the cost-effectiveness, from a health sector perspective, of various screening strategies in the era of these new technologies.

Methods:
A stochastic epidemiological model using a discrete event and continuous algorithm was developed to describe the natural history of cervical cancer. By allowing one member of the cohort into the model at a time, this micro-simulation model encompasses the characteristics of heterogeneity and can track individual life histories. To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the HPV vaccine a Markov model was built to simulate the effect on the incidence of HPV and subsequent cervical cancer. A number of proposed screening strategies were evaluated with the stochastic model for the application of HPV DNA testing, with changes in the screening interval and target population. Health outcomes were measured by Disability-Adjusted Life-Years (DALYs), adjusted for application within an evaluation setting (i.e. the mortality component of the DALY was adjusted by a disability weight when early mortality due to cervical cancer is avoided). Costs in complying with the Australian updated guidelines were assessed by pathway analysis to estimate the resources associated with cervical cancer and its pre-cancerous lesion treatment. Sensitivity analyses were performed to investigate the key parameters that influenced the cost-effectiveness results.

Results:
Current practice has already brought huge health gain by preventing more than 4,000 deaths and saving more than 86,000 life-years in a cohort of a million women. Any of the alternative screening strategies alter the total amount of health gain by a small margin compared to current practice. The results of incremental analyses of the alternative screening strategies compared to current practice suggest the adoption of the HPV DNA test as a primary screening tool every 3 years commencing at age 18, or the combined pap smear/HPV test every 3 years commencing at age 25, are more costly than current practice but with reasonable ICERs (AUD$1,810 per DALY and AUD$18,600 per DALY respectively). Delaying commencement of Pap test screening to age 25 is less costly than current practice, but involves considerable health loss. The sensitivity analysis shows, however, that the screening test accuracy has a significant impact on these conclusions. Threshold analysis indicates that a sensitivity ranging from 0.80 to 0.86 for the combined test in women younger than 30 is required to produce an acceptable incremental cost-effectiveness ratio.

Conclusions:
The adoption of HPV and combined test with an extended screening interval is more costly but affordable, resulting in reasonable ICERs. They appear good value for money for the Australian health care system, but need more information on test accuracy to make an informed decision. Potential screening policy change under current Australian HPV Vaccination Program is current work in progress. A Markov model is built to simulate the effect on the incidence of HPV and subsequent cervical cancer. Adoption of HPV DNA test as a primary screening tool in the context of HPV vaccination is under evaluation.

Modelling the public health consequences of cannabis use in Australia

Aims: To detail and validate a simulation model that describes the dynamics of cannabis use, including its probable causal relationships with schizophrenia, road traffic accidents (RTA) and heroin/poly-drug use (HPU).

Methods: A Markov model with 17 health-states was constructed. Annual cycles were used to simulate the initiation of cannabis use, progression in use, reduction and complete remission. The probabilities of transition between health-states were derived from observational data. Following 10-year-old Australian children for 90 years, the model estimated age-specific prevalence for cannabis use. By applying the relative risks according to the extent of cannabis use, the age-specific prevalence of schizophrenia and HPU, and the annual RTA incidence and fatality rate were also estimated. Predictive validity of the model was tested by comparing modelled outputs with data from other credible sources. Sensitivity and scenario analyses were conducted to evaluate technical validity and face validity.

Results: The estimated cannabis use prevalence in individuals aged 10-65 years was 12.2% which comprised 27.4% weekly and 18.0% daily users. The modelled prevalence and age profile were comparable to the reported cross-sectional data. The model also provided good approximations to the prevalence of schizophrenia (Modelled: 4.75/1,000 persons vs Observed: 4.6/1,000 persons), HPU (3.2/1,000 vs 3.1/1,000) and the RTA fatality rate (8.1 per 100,000 vs 8.2 per 100,000). Sensitivity analyses and scenario analysis provided expected and explainable trends.

Conclusions: The validated model provides a valuable tool to assess the likely effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of interventions designed to affect patterns of cannabis use. It can be updated as new data becomes available and/or applied to other countries.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of a two-stage screening intervention for hepatocellular carcinoma in Taiwan

Background/Purpose

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been the leading cause of cancer death in Taiwan since the 1980s. A two-stage screening intervention was introduced in 1996 and has been implemented in a limited number of hospitals. The present study assessed the costs and health outcomes associated with the introduction of screening intervention, from the perspective of the Taiwanese government. The cost-effectiveness analysis aimed to assist informed decision making by the health authority in Taiwan.
Methods

A two-phase economic model, 1-year decision analysis and a 60-year Markov simulation, was developed to conceptualize the screening intervention within current practice, and was compared with opportunistic screening alone. Incremental analyses were conducted to compare the incremental costs and outcomes associated with the introduction of the intervention. Sensitivity analyses were performed to investigate the uncertainties that surrounded the model.
Results

The Markov model simulation demonstrated an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of NT$498,000 (US$15,600) per life-year saved, with a 5% discount rate. An ICER of NT$402,000 (US$12,600) per quality-adjusted life-year was achieved by applying utility weights. Sensitivity analysis showed that excess mortality reduction of HCC by screening and HCC incidence rates were the most influential factors on the ICERs. Scenario analysis also indicated that expansion of the HCC screening intervention by focusing on regular monitoring of the high-risk individuals could achieve a more favorable result.
Conclusion

Screening the population of high-risk individuals for HCC with the two-stage screening intervention in Taiwan is considered potentially cost-effective compared with opportunistic screening in the target population of an HCC endemic area.

Single-point isotope measurements in blood cells and plasma to estimate the time since diet switches

1. Understanding ecological phenomena often requires an accurate assessment of the timing of events. To estimate the time since a diet shift in animals without knowledge on the isotope ratios of either the old or the new diet, isotope ratio measurements in two different tissues (e.g. blood plasma and blood cells) at a single point in time can be used. For this ‘isotopic-clock’ principle, we present here a mathematical model that yields an analytical and easily calculated outcome.

2. Compared with a previously published model, our model assumes the isotopic difference between the old and new diets to be constant if multiple measurements are taken on the same subject at different points in time. Furthermore, to estimate the time since diet switch, no knowledge of the isotopic signature of tissues under the old diet, but only under the new diet is required.

3. The two models are compared using three calibration data sets including a novel one based on a diet shift experiment in a shorebird (red knot Calidris canutus); sensitivity analyses were conducted. The two models behaved differently and each may prove rather unsatisfactory depending on the system under investigation. A single-tissue model, requiring knowledge of both the old and new diets, generally behaved quite reliably.

4. As blood (cells) and plasma are particularly useful tissues for isotopic-clock research, we trawled the literature on turnover rates in whole blood, cells and plasma. Unfortunately, turnover rate predictions using allometric relations are too unreliable to be used directly in isotopic-clock calculations.

5. We advocate that before applying the isotopic-clock methodology, the propagation of error in the ‘time-since-diet-shift’ estimation is carefully assessed for the system under scrutiny using a sensitivity analysis as proposed here.

The economic benefits of reducing physical inactivity : an Australian example

Background: Physical inactivity has major impacts on health and productivity. Our aim was to estimate the health and economic benefits of reducing the prevalence of physical inactivity in the 2008 Australian adult population. The economic benefits were estimated as ‘opportunity cost savings’, which represent resources utilized in the treatment of preventable disease that are potentially available for re-direction to another purpose from fewer incident cases of disease occurring in communities.
Methods: Simulation models were developed to show the effect of a 10% feasible, reduction target for physical inactivity from current Australian levels (70%). Lifetime cohort health benefits were estimated as fewer incident cases of inactivity-related diseases; deaths; and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) by age and sex. Opportunity costs were estimated as health sector cost impacts, as well as paid and unpaid production gains and leisure impacts from fewer disease events associated with reduced physical inactivity. Workforce production gains were estimated by comparing surveyed participation and absenteeism rates of physically active and inactive adults, and valued using the friction cost approach. The impact of an improvement in health status on unpaid household production and leisure time were modeled from time use survey data, as applied to the exposed and non-exposed population subgroups and valued by suitable proxy. Potential costs associated with interventions to increase physical activity were not included. Multivariable uncertainty analyses and univariate sensitivity analyses were undertaken to provide information on the strength of the conclusions.
Results: A 10% reduction in physical inactivity would result in 6,000 fewer incident cases of disease, 2,000 fewer deaths, 25,000 fewer DALYs and provide gains in working days (114,000), days of home-based production (180,000) while conferring a AUD96 million reduction in health sector costs. Lifetime potential opportunity cost savings in workforce production (AUD12 million), home-based production (AUD71 million) and leisure-based production (AUD79 million) was estimated (total AUD162 million 95% uncertainty interval AUD136 million, AUD196 million).
Conclusions: Opportunity cost savings and health benefits conservatively estimated from a reduction in population-level physical inactivity may be substantial. The largest savings will benefit individuals in the form of unpaid production and leisure gains, followed by the health sector, business and government.

The health loss from ischemic stroke and intracerebral hemorrhage : evidence from the North East Melbourne Stroke Incidence Study (NEMESIS)

Background People suffering different types of stroke have differing demographic characteristics and survival. However, current estimates of disease burden are based on the same underlying assumptions irrespective of stroke type. We hypothesized that average Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) lost from stroke would be different for ischemic stroke and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH).

Methods We used 1 and 5-year data collected from patients with first-ever stroke participating in the North East Melbourne Stroke Incidence Study (NEMESIS). We calculated case fatality rates, health-adjusted life expectancy, and quality-of-life (QoL) weights specific to each age and gender category. Lifetime 'health loss' for first-ever ischemic stroke and ICH surviving 28-days for the 2004 Australian population cohort was then estimated. Multivariable uncertainty analyses and sensitivity analyses (SA) were used to assess the impact of varying input parameters e.g. case fatality and QoL weights.

Results Paired QoL data at 1 and 5 years were available for 237 NEMESIS participants. Extrapolating NEMESIS rates, 31,539 first-ever strokes were expected for Australia in 2004. Average discounted (3%) QALYs lost per first-ever stroke were estimated to be 5.09 (SD 0.20; SA 5.49) for ischemic stroke (n = 27,660) and 6.17 (SD 0.26; SA 6.45) for ICH (n = 4,291; p < 0.001). QALYs lost also differed according to gender for both subtypes (ischemic stroke: males 4.69 SD 0.38, females 5.51 SD 0.46; ICH: males 5.82 SD 0.67, females 6.50 SD 0.40).

Discussion People with ICH incurred greater loss of health over a lifetime than people with ischemic stroke. This is explained by greater stroke related case fatality at a younger age, but longer life expectancy with disability after the first 12 months for people with ICH. Thus, studies of disease burden in stroke should account for these differences between subtype and gender. Otherwise, in countries where ICH is more common, health loss for stroke may be underestimated. Similar to other studies of this type, the generalisability of the results may be limited. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were used to provide a plausible range of variation for Australia. In countries with demographic and life expectancy characteristics comparable to Australia, our QoL weights may be reasonably applicable.

A novel exhaust heat recovery system to reduce fuel consumption

Internal combustion engines release about 1/3 of the energy bound in the fuel as exhaust waste gas energy and another 1/3 energy is wasted through heat transfer into the ambient. On the other hand losses through friction are the third largest root cause for energy loss in internal combustion engines. During city driving frictional losses can be of the same size as the effective work, and during cold start these losses are even bigger. Therefore it is obvious to utilise wasted exhaust energy to warm up the engine oil directly. Frictional losses of any engine can be reduced during part load. Sensitivity analyses have been conducted for different concepts that utilise exhaust energy to reduce engine viscosity and friction. For a new system with an exhaust gas/oil heat exchanger the following benefits have been demonstrated:

• Fuel consumption reductions of over 7% measured as an average over 5 NEDC tests
compared to the standard system configuration.
• Significant reductions in exhaust emissions, mainly CO and NOx have been achieved
• Significantly higher oil temperatures during cold start indicate large potential to
reduce engine wear through reduced water condensation in the crankcase
• Fuel consumption reductions of further 3.3% to 4.6% compared to the 7% measured
over the NEDC test can be expected under real world customer usage conditions at
lower ambient temperatures.

Oil temperature measurements and analysis resulted in the idea of a novel system with further potential to reduce fuel consumption. This Oil Viscosity Energy Recovery System (OVER 7™) consists of 3 key features that add significant synergies if combined in a certain way: an oil warm up circuit/bypass, including oil pressure control and Exhaust Gas/Oil Heat Exchanger. The system separates the thermal inertias of the oil in the engine galleries and the oil pan, reduces hydraulic pumping losses, increases the heat transfer from the cylinder head to the oil, and utilises the exhaust heat to reduce oil friction.

The project demonstrated that sensitivity analysis is an important tool for the evaluation of different concepts. Especially for new concepts that include transient heat transfer such a qualitative approach in combination with accurate experiments and measurements can be faster and more efficient in leading to the desired improvements compared to time consuming detailed simulations.

The impact of statins on psychological wellbeing : a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background : Cholesterol-lowering medications such as statins have anti-inflammatory and antioxidant properties, which may be beneficial for treating depression and improving mood. However, evidence regarding their effects remains inconsistent, with some studies reporting links to mood disturbances. We aimed to conduct a meta-analysis to determine the impact of statins on psychological wellbeing of individuals with or without hypercholesterolemia.

Methods : Articles were identified using medical, health, psychiatric and social science databases, evaluated for quality, and data were synthesized and analyzed in RevMan-5 software using a random effects model.

Results : The 7 randomized controlled trials included in the analysis represented 2,105 participants. A test for overall effect demonstrated no statistically significant differences in psychological wellbeing between participants receiving statins or a placebo (standardized mean difference (SMD) = -0.08, 95% CI -0.29 to 0.12; P = 0.42). Sensitivity analyses were conducted to separately analyze depression (n = 5) and mood (n = 2) outcomes; statins were associated with statistically significant improvements in mood scores (SMD = -0.43, 95% CI -0.61 to -0.24).

Conclusions : Our findings refute evidence of negative effects of statins on psychological outcomes, providing some support for mood-related benefits. Future studies could examine the effects of statins in depressed populations.

An algorithm to median shortest path problem (MSPP) in the design of urban transportation networks

This paper proposes an efficient solution algorithm for realistic multi-objective median shortest path problems in the design of urban transportation networks. The proposed problem formulation and solution algorithm to median shortest path problem is based on three realistic objectives via route cost or investment cost, overall travel time of the entire network and total toll revenue. The proposed solution approach to the problem is based on the heuristic labeling and exhaustive search technique in criteria space and solution space of the algorithm respectively. The first labels each node in terms of route cost and deletes cyclic and infeasible paths in criteria space imposing cyclic break and route cost constraint respectively. The latter deletes dominated paths in terms of objectives vector in solution space in order to identify a set of Pareto optimal paths. The approach, thus, proposes a non-inferior solution set of Pareto optimal paths based on non-dominated objective vector and leaves the ultimate decision to decision-makers for purpose specific final decision during applications. A numerical experiment is conducted to test the proposed algorithm using artificial transportation network. Sensitivity analyses have shown that the proposed algorithm is advantageous and efficient over existing algorithms to find a set of Pareto optimal paths to median shortest paths problems.

The cost-effectiveness of the Dose Adjustment for Normal Eating (DAFNE) structured education programme: an update using the Sheffield Type 1 Diabetes policy model

AIMS: 
To estimate the cost-effectiveness of training in flexible intensive insulin therapy [as provided in the Dose Adjustment for Normal Eating (DAFNE) structured education programme] compared with no training for adults with Type 1 diabetes mellitus in the UK using the Sheffield Type 1 Diabetes Policy Model.

METHODS: 
The Sheffield Type 1 Diabetes Policy Model was used to simulate the development of long-term microvascular and macrovascular diabetes-related complications and the occurrence of diabetes-related adverse events in 5000 adults with Type 1 diabetes. Total costs and quality-adjusted life years were estimated from a National Health Service perspective over a lifetime horizon, discounted at a rate of 3.5%. The treatment effectiveness of DAFNE was modelled as a reduction in HbA1c that affected the risk of developing long-term diabetes-related complications. Probabilistic and structural sensitivity analyses were conducted.

RESULTS:
DAFNE resulted in greater life expectancy and reduced incidence of some diabetes-related complications compared with no DAFNE. DAFNE was found to generate an average of 0.0294 additional quality-adjusted life years for an additional cost of £426 per patient, leading to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £14 400 compared with no DAFNE. There was a 54% probability that DAFNE would be cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20 000 per quality-adjusted life year.

CONCLUSIONS: 
The results of this study suggest that DAFNE is a cost-effective structured education programme for people with Type 1 diabetes and support its provision by the National Health Service in the UK.

Attributable risk analysis reveals potential healthcare savings from increased consumption of dairy products.

With rising burdens of obesity and chronic disease, the role of diet as a modifiable risk factor is of increasing public health interest. There is a growing body of evidence that low consumption of dairy products is associated with elevated risk of chronic metabolic and cardiovascular disorders. Surveys also suggest that dairy product consumption falls well below recommended targets for much of the population in many countries, including the USA, UK, and Australia. We reviewed the scientific literature on the health effects of dairy product consumption (both positive and negative) and used the best available evidence to estimate the direct healthcare expenditure and burden of disease [disability-adjusted life years (DALY)] attributable to low consumption of dairy products in Australia. We implemented a novel technique for estimating population attributable risk developed for application in nutrition and other areas in which exposure to risk is a continuous variable. We found that in the 2010-2011 financial year, AUD$2.0 billion (USD$2.1 billion, €1.6 billion, or ∼1.7% of direct healthcare expenditure) and the loss of 75,012 DALY were attributable to low dairy product consumption. In sensitivity analyses, varying core assumptions yielded corresponding estimates of AUD$1.1-3.8 billion (0.9-3.3%) and 38,299-151,061 DALY lost. The estimated healthcare cost attributable to low dairy product consumption is comparable with total spending on public health in Australia (AUD$2.0 billion in 2009-2010). These findings justify the development and evaluation of cost-effective interventions that use dairy products as a vector for reducing the costs of diet-related disease.

Is cost effectiveness sustained after weekend inpatient rehabilitation? 12 month follow up from a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Our previous work showed that providing additional rehabilitation on a Saturday was cost effective in the short term from the perspective of the health service provider. This study aimed to evaluate if providing additional rehabilitation on a Saturday was cost effective at 12 months, from a health system perspective inclusive of private costs. METHODS: Cost effectiveness analyses alongside a single-blinded randomized controlled trial with 12 months follow up inclusive of informal care. Participants were adults admitted to two publicly funded inpatient rehabilitation facilities. The control group received usual care rehabilitation services from Monday to Friday and the intervention group received usual care plus additional Saturday rehabilitation. Incremental cost effectiveness ratios were reported as cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained and for a minimal clinical important difference (MCID) in functional independence. RESULTS: A total of 996 patients [mean age 74 years (SD 13)] were randomly assigned to the intervention (n = 496) or control group (n = 500). The intervention was associated with improvements in QALY and MCID in function, as well as a non-significant reduction in cost from admission to 12 months (mean difference (MD) AUD$6,325; 95% CI -4,081 to 16,730; t test p = 0.23 and MWU p = 0.06), and a significant reduction in cost from admission to 6 months (MD AUD$6,445; 95% CI 3,368 to 9,522; t test p = 0.04 and MWU p = 0.01). There is a high degree of certainty that providing additional rehabilitation services on Saturday is cost effective. Sensitivity analyses varying the cost of informal carers and self-reported health service utilization, favored the intervention. CONCLUSIONS: From a health system perspective inclusive of private costs the provision of additional Saturday rehabilitation for inpatients is likely to have sustained cost savings per QALY gained and for a MCID in functional independence, for the inpatient stay and 12 months following discharge, without a cost shift into the community. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry November 2009 ACTRN12609000973213 .

Modeling the cost effectiveness of child care policy changes in the U.S.

INTRODUCTION: Child care facilities influence diet and physical activity, making them ideal obesity prevention settings. The purpose of this study is to quantify the health and economic impacts of a multi-component regulatory obesity policy intervention in licensed U.S. child care facilities. METHODS: Two-year costs and BMI changes resulting from changes in beverage, physical activity, and screen time regulations affecting a cohort of up to 6.5 million preschool-aged children attending child care facilities were estimated in 2014 using published data. A Markov cohort model simulated the intervention's impact on changes in the U.S. population from 2015 to 2025, including short-term BMI effects and 10-year healthcare expenditures. Future outcomes were discounted at 3% annually. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses simulated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) around outcomes. RESULTS: Regulatory changes would lead children to watch less TV, get more minutes of moderate and vigorous physical activity, and consume fewer sugar-sweetened beverages. Within the 6.5 million eligible population, national implementation could reach 3.69 million children, cost $4.82 million in the first year, and result in 0.0186 fewer BMI units (95% UI=0.00592 kg/m(2), 0.0434 kg/m(2)) per eligible child at a cost of $57.80 per BMI unit avoided. Over 10 years, these effects would result in net healthcare cost savings of $51.6 (95% UI=$14.2, $134) million. The intervention is 94.7% likely to be cost saving by 2025. CONCLUSIONS: Changing child care regulations could have a small but meaningful impact on short-term BMI at low cost. If effects are maintained for 10 years, obesity-related healthcare cost savings are likely.