Least squares asymptotics in spurious and cointegrated panel regressions with common and idiosyncratic stochastic trends

This article makes an analytical study of the effects of the presence of both common and idiosyncratic stochastic trends on the pooled least squares estimator. The results suggest that the usual result of asymptotic normality depends critically on the absence of the common stochastic trend.

On the estimation and inference in factor-augmented panel regressions with correlated loadings

In an influential paper, Pesaran [Pesaran, M.H. (2006). Estimation and inference in large heterogeneous panels with a multifactor error structure. Econometrica 74, 967–1012] proposes a very simple estimator of factor-augmented regressions that has since then become very popular. In this note we demonstrate how the presence of correlated factor loadings can render this estimator inconsistent.

Estimation of factor-augmented panel regressions with weakly influential factors

The use of factor-augmented panel regressions has become very popular in recent years. Existing methods for such regressions require that the common factors are strong, such that their cumulative loadings rise proportionally to the number of cross-sectional units, which of course need not be the case in practice. Motivated by this, the current paper offers an indepth analysis of the effect of non-strong factors on two of the most popular estimators for factor-augmented regressions, namely, principal components (PC) and common correlated effects (CCE).

On the estimation and testing of predictive panel regressions

Hjalmarsson (2010) considers an OLS-based estimator of predictive panel regressions that is argued to be mixed normal under very general conditions. In a recent paper, Westerlund et al. (2016) show that while consistent, the estimator is generally not mixed normal, which invalidates standard normal and chi-squared inference. The purpose of the present paper is to study the consequences of this theoretical result in small samples, which is done using both simulated and real data.

Cycling at 120 when compared to 80 rev/min increases the accumulated oxygen deficit but does not affect the precision of its calculation

The aim of the present study was to determine the influence of pedal rate on the precision and quantification of the accumulated oxygen deficit (AOD). Eight trained male triathletes completed a lactate threshold test, VO2 peak test, 10 x 3 min submaximal exercise bouts and a high-intensity exercise bout, all performed at 80 and 120 rev/min. For both pedal rates the intensities for the sub-maximal and high-intensity tests were relative to the lactate threshold and VO2 peak work rates. The VO2-power regressions were calculated using 5 intensities from above the lactate threshold combined with a y intercept value with VO2 measured after 3 min of exercise. For the 120 compared to the 80 rev/min tests, the lactate threshold work rate (255±13 versus 276±47 Watts) (p<0.01) and VO2 peak work rate (352±17 versus 382±20, Watts) (p<0.05) were lower at 120 rev/m. Conversely, the VO2 peak and the VO2 measured during the exhaustive exercise were the same for both pedal rates (p>0.05). Using linear regression modelling the slope of the VO2-power regression (0.0112 versus 0.010 L/Watt) (p<0.01), the estimated total energy demand (ETED) (5.13±0.75 versus 4.89±0.88 L/min) and the AOD (4.27±0.94 versus 3.66±1.25 L) (p<0.05) were greater at 120 rev/m. However, the 95% confidence interval for the ETED and the standard error of the predicted value were the same for both pedal rates (p>0.05). Our results demonstrate that pedal rate effects the size but not the precision of the calculated AOD and should therefore be considered when developing an AOD protocol.

How do perceptions of local neighborhood relate to adolescents` walking and cycling?

Purpose. To examine how perceptions of the local neighborhood relate to adolescents' walking and cycling. Design. Exploratory cross-sectional study. Setting. Birth cohort from the Nepean Hospital, Sydney, Australia. Subjects. Three hundred forty-seven adolescents (79.1 % response rate; 49.6% boys; mean age - 13.0 ± 0.2 years) and their parents. Measures. Self-report and parental-report questionnaires. Results. Multiple linear regressions, adjusted for level of maternal education, revealed that boys who reported having many peers to hang out with locally, cycled for recreation (β = 0.242, p = .006) or for transport (β = 0.141, p = . 046) more often, and walked for transport for longer (β = 0.129, p = .024) on weekdays. For girls this variable was related to cycling for recreation on weekends (β = 0.164, p = .006) and walking to school (β = 0.118, p = .002). Adolescents who waved/talked to neighbors walked for transport more often (boys, β = 0.149, p = .037; girls, β = 0.119, p = .012). Girls who perceived local roads to be safe spent more time walking for transport on weekdays (β = 0.183, p = .007) and for exercise on weekends (β = 0.184, p = . 034). Parents' perception of heavy traffic was negatively associated with boys' walking for transport (β = -0.138, p = .037) and many aspects of girls' walking and cycling. Conclusion. Social interaction and road safety may be important predictors of adolescents' walking and cycling in their neighborhood. Limitations are the use of self-report and cross-sectional data. Longitudinal studies may clarify these relations.

Trade, openness and domestic conflict: an empirical investigation for latin America

This paper explores whether there is an empirical relationship between trade, openness and domestic conflict for Latin America based on the analytical framework of Garfinkel, Skaperdas and Syropoulos (2004). Using ordinal regressions and Markov switching models for seventeen countries, we identify the factors responsible for the initiation and sustenance of domestic conflict. Our overall results suggest that: (i) increased trade openness reduces domestic conflict intensities but (ii) over dependence on agricultural exports, along with poor socio-political performance, lead to sustenance of low intensity conflicts. We also analyze conflict duration using proportional hazard models and find that over-reliance on agricultural exports plays the main role in conflict sustenance after controlling for socio-political factors.

Aspects of comparative active citizenship

This paper reports results from surveys of community organisation members, workers and volunteers designed to measure aspects of active citizenship in four locations: Ballarat (Australia); Norwich and Downham Market (England), and Mitischi (Russia). These data are drawn from an ongoing comparative study that will include six countries in the final analysis. The aggregated data considered here lend support to propositions that tolerance is positively associated with both civic participation and trust but do not show evidence for association between civic participation and trust. However, the existence of considerable locality level variation underlines the importance of taking context into account when assessing the role and nature of civic participation. Across the four locations, two broad patterns of (relative) active citizenship are described by means of a typology of active citizens. Predictors of tolerance and civic participation are identified through standard multiple regressions. It is concluded that future research needs to uncover the explanatory factors that lie behind these representations and which could further specify not just the similarities but also the differences between the locations.

Protection for sale in a developing country : democracy vs. dictatorship

For a "genuine" small open economy that has experienced both dictatorship and democracy, we find support for the predictions of the Grossman-Helpman (1994) "Protection for Sale" model. In contrast to previous studies, we use various protection measures (including tariffs, the direct measure of the theoretical model) and perform both single-year and panel regressions. Using Turkish industry-level data, the government's weight on welfare is estimated to be much larger than that on contributions. More importantly, we find that this weight is generally higher for the democratic regime than for dictatorship.

Snacking behaviours of adolescents and their association with skipping meals

Background: Snacking is likely to play an important role in the development of overweight and obesity, yet little is known about the contexts of snacking in adolescents or how snacking may influence other dietary habits, like meal skipping. This study examines the contexts in which adolescents snack and whether these contexts are associated with demographic characteristics of adolescents and with meal skipping.
Methods: A cross-sectional, self-reported online food habits survey was administered to 3,250 secondary students in years seven and nine. The students were drawn from 37 secondary schools in Victoria, Australia during 2004–2005. Frequencies of meal skipping, and snacking in eight contexts, were compared across gender, year level and region of residence. Logistic regressions were performed to examine associations between snacking contexts and meal skipping adjusting for gender and region.
Results: The most common contexts for snacking among adolescents were after school (4.6 times per week), while watching TV (3.5 times per week) and while hanging out with friends (2.4 times per week). Adolescents were least likely to snack all day long (0.8 times per week) or in the middle of the night (0.4 times per week). Snacking contexts were variously associated with gender, year level and region. In contrast, meal skipping was associated with gender and region of residence but not year level. Adolescents who reported more frequent snacking on the run, on the way to or from school, all day long, or in the middle of the night were more likely to skip meals.
Conclusion: These data suggest adolescents snack frequently, especially in their leisure time. In addition, adolescents who snack on the run, on the way to or from school, all day long or in the middle of the night are more likely to skip meals than are adolescents who don't snack at these times. Understanding the contexts in which adolescents snack, and their associations with skipping meals, may assist those involved in the promotion of healthy food habits among adolescents.

Motivational readiness for active commuting by university students : incentives and barriers

Issue addressed: Walking for transport can contribute significantly to health enhancing physical activity. We examined the associations of stages of motivational readiness for active transport with perceived barriers and incentives to walking to and from university among students. Methods: Mail-back surveys were completed by 781 students in a regional university in southeast Queensland. They identified one of eight options on motivational readiness for active commuting, which were then classified as: pre-contemplation; contemplation-preparation; or, action-maintenance. Open-ended questions were used to identify relevant barriers and incentives. Logistic regressions were used to examine the barriers and incentives that distinguished between those at different stages of motivational readiness. Results: Barriers most frequently reported were long travel distances, inconvenience and time constraints. Incentives most frequently reported were shorter travel distance, having more time, supportive infrastructure and better security. Those not considering active commuting (pre-contemplation) were significantly more likely to report shorter travel distance as an incentive compared to those in contemplation-preparation. Those in contemplation-preparation were significantly more likely to report lack of motivation, inadequate infrastructure, shorter travel distance and inconvenience as barriers; and, having more time, supportive infrastructure, social support and incentive programs as encouragement. Conclusions: Different barriers and incentives to walking to or from university exist for students in the different stages of motivational readiness for active commuting. Interventions targeted specifically to stage of motivational readiness may be potentially helpful in increasing activity levels, through active transport.

Childhood motor skill proficiency as a predictor of adolescent physical activity

Purpose
Cross-sectional evidence has demonstrated the importance of motor skill proficiency to physical activity participation, but it is unknown whether skill proficiency predicts subsequent physical activity.

Methods
In 2000, children's proficiency in object control (kick, catch, throw) and locomotor (hop, side gallop, vertical jump) skills were assessed in a school intervention. In 2006/07, the physical activity of former participants was assessed using the Australian Physical Activity Recall Questionnaire. Linear regressions examined relationships between the reported time adolescents spent participating in moderate-to-vigorous or organized physical activity and their childhood skill proficiency, controlling for gender and school grade. A logistic regression examined the probability of participating in vigorous activity.

Results
Of 481 original participants located, 297 (62%) consented and 276 (57%) were surveyed. All were in secondary school with females comprising 52% (144). Adolescent time in moderate-to-vigorous and organized activity was positively associated with childhood object control proficiency. Respective models accounted for 12.7% (p = .001), and 18.2% of the variation (p = .003). Object control proficient children became adolescents with a 10% to 20% higher chance of vigorous activity participation.

Conclusions
Object control proficient children were more likely to become active adolescents. Motor skill development should be a key strategy in childhood interventions aiming to promote long-term physical activity.

Takeover deterrent effect of on-market share buyback

This study examines whether Australian firms use on-market share buybacks to deter unwanted takeover risk from the stock market. We found a statistically significant and positive relation between a firm’s ex-ante takeover probability and its on-market share buyback activities. The result is robust to alternative modelling techniques, namely TOBIT and Censored Quantile Regressions. This could be partly explained by Brown and O’day (2007) hypothesis on dividend payout, that in a non-classical taxation system like Australia, yield of share buyback is positively related to dividend payments. However on-market share buyback activity is closely related to temporary cash flows rather than permanent operating cash flows. This might indicate that besides dividend payments, Australian firms might take advantage of the financial flexibility of share buybacks to redistribute non-permanent cash flows to their shareholders.

Late Palaeozoic sequence stratigraphy and brachiopod faunas of the Tarim Basin, Northwest China

This thesis deals with the stratigraphy and brachiopod systematic palaeontology of the latest Devonian (Famennian) to Early Permian (Kungurian) sedimentary sequences of the Tarim Basin, NW China. Brachiopod faunas of latest Devonian and Carboniferous age have been published or currently in press in the course of the Ph.D candidature and are herein appendixed, while the Early Permian brachiopod faunas are systematically described in this thesis. The described Early Permian brachiopod faunas include 127 species, of which 29 are new and 12 indeterminate, and six new genera (subgenera) are proposed; Tarimella, Bmntonella, Marginifera (Arenaria), Marginifera (Nesiotia), Baliqliqia and Ustritskia. A new integrated brachiopod biostratigraphical zonation scheme is proposed, for the first time, for the latest Devonian-Early Permian sequences of the entire Tarim Basin on the basis of this study as well as previously published information (including the Candidate's own published papers). The scheme consists of twenty three brachiopod acm biozones, most of which replace previously proposed assemblage or assemblage zones. The age and distribution of these brachiopod zones within the Tarim Basin and their relationships with other important fossil groups are discussed. In terms of regional correlations and biostratigraphical affinities, the Late Devonian to Early Carboniferous brachiopod faunas of the Tarim Basin are closest to those from South China, while the Late Carboniferous faunas demonstrate strong similarities to coeval faunas from the Urals, central Asia, North China and South China. During the Asselian-Sakmarian, strong faunal links between the Tarim Basin and those of the Urals persisted, while at the same time links with central Asia, North China and South China weakened. On the other hand, during the Artinskian-Kungurian times, affinities of the Tarim faunas with the Urals/Russian Platform rapidly reduced, when those with peri-Gondwana (South Thailand, northern Tibet) and South China increased. Thirty lithofacies (or microfacies) types of four facies associations are recognised for the Late Devonian to early Permian sediments. Based on detailed lithostratigraphy, biostratigraphy and facies analysis, 23 third-order sequences belonging to four supcrsequences are identified for the Late Devonian to Early Permian successions, from which sea-level fluctuation curves are reconstructed. The sequence stratigraphical analysis reveals that four major regional regressions, each marking a distinct supersequence boundary, can be recognised; they correspond to the end-Serpukhovian, end-Moscovian, late Artinskian and end-Kungurian times, respectively. The development of these sequences is considered to have been formed and regulated by the interplay of both eustasy and tectonism. Using the system tract of a sequence as the mapping time unit, a succession of 47 palaeogeographical maps have been reconstructed through the Late Devonian to Early Permian. These maps reveal that the Tarim Basin was first immersed by southwest-directed (Recent geographical orientation) transgression in the late Famennian after the Caledonian Orogeny. Since then, the basin had maintained its geometry as a large, southwest-mouthed embayment until the late Moscovian when most areas were the uplifted above sea-level. The basin was flooded again in late Asselian-Artinskian times when a new transgression came from a large epicontinental sea lying to its northwest. Thereafter, marine deposition was restricted to local areas (southwestern and northwestern margins until the late Kungurian, while deposition of continental deposits prevailed and continued through the Middle and late Permian into the Triassic.