The effect of recursive detrending on panel unit root tests

This paper analyzes the properties of panel unit root tests based on recursively detrended data. The analysis is conducted while allowing for a (potentially) non-linear trend function, which represents a more general consideration than the current state of affairs with (at most) a linear trend. A new test statistic is proposed whose asymptotic behavior under the unit root null hypothesis, and the simplifying assumptions of a polynomial trend and iid errors are shown to be surprisingly simple. Indeed, the test statistic is not only asymptotically independent of the true trend polynomial, but also is in fact unique in that it is independent also of the degree of the fitted polynomial. However, this invariance property does not carry over to the local alternative, under which it is shown that local power is a decreasing function of the trend degree. But while power does decrease, the rate of shrinking of the local alternative is generally constant in the trend degree, which goes against the common belief that the rate of shrinking should be decreasing in the trend degree. The above results are based on simplifying assumptions. To compensate for this lack of generality, a second, robust, test statistic is proposed, whose validity does not require that the trend function is a polynomial or that the errors are iid.

Hierarchical semi-markov conditional random fields for recursive sequential data

Inspired by the hierarchical hidden Markov models (HHMM), we present the hierarchical semi-Markov conditional random field (HSCRF), a generalisation of embedded undirected Markov chains to model complex hierarchical, nested Markov processes. It is parameterised in a discriminative framework and has polynomial time algorithms for learning and inference. Importantly, we develop efficient algorithms for learning and constrained inference in a partially-supervised setting, which is important issue in practice where labels can only be obtained sparsely. We demonstrate the HSCRF in two applications: (i) recognising human activities of daily living (ADLs) from indoor surveillance cameras, and (ii) noun-phrase chunking. We show that the HSCRF is capable of learning rich hierarchical models with reasonable accuracy in both fully and partially observed data cases.

Pricing innovations in consumption growth: a re-evaluation of the recursive utility model

We re-evaluate the cross-sectional asset pricing implications of the recursive utility function of Epstein and Zin, 1989 and Epstein and Zin, 1991, using innovations in future consumption growth in our tests. Our empirical specification helps explain the size, value and momentum effects. Specifically, we find that (і) the beta associated with news about consumption growth has a systematic pattern: beta decreases along the size dimension and increases along the book-to-market and momentum dimensions, (іі) innovation in consumption growth is significantly priced in asset returns using both the Fama and MacBeth (1973) and the stochastic discount factor approaches, and (ііі) the model performs better than both the CAPM and Fama–French model.

A computationally convenient unit root test with covariates, conditional heteroskedasticity and efficient detrending

When testing for a unit root in a time series, in spite of the well-known power problem of univariate tests, it is quite common to use only the information regarding the autoregressive behaviour contained in that series. In a series of influential papers, Elliott et al. (Efficient tests for an autoregressive unit root, Econometrica 64, 813–836, 1996), Hansen (Rethinking the univariate approach to unit root testing: using covariates to increase power, Econometric Theory 11, 1148–1171, 1995a) and Seo (Distribution theory for unit root tests with conditional heteroskedasticity, Journal of Econometrics 91, 113–144, 1999) showed that this practice can be rather costly and that the inclusion of the extraneous information contained in the near-integratedness of many economic variables, their heteroskedasticity and their correlation with other covariates can lead to substantial power gains. In this article, we show how these information sets can be combined into a single unit root test.

On the importance of the first observation in GLS detrending in unit root testing

First-differencing is generally taken to imply the loss of one observation, the first, or at least that the effect of ignoring this observation is asymptotically negligible. However, this is not always true, as in the case of generalized least squares (GLS) detrending. In order to illustrate this, the current article considers as an example the use of GLS detrended data when testing for a unit root. The results show that the treatment of the first observation is absolutely crucial for test performance, and that ignorance causes test break-down.

Permutations with a distinct difference property

The topic of this paper arose out of a consideration of Costas sequences, which are used in sonar and radar applications. These sequences have the defining property that all differences of elements the same distance apart, are different. Several infinite families of Costas sequences are known; but there are many existence questions for length greater-or-equal to 32. In this article, we restrict ourselves to sequences with the weaker property that all adjacent differences are different. We give a recursive construction for these, as well as building several infinite families.

Improving the performance of equalization in communication systems

In this paper, research on exploring the potential of several popular equalization techniques while overcoming their disadvantages has been conducted. First, extensive literature survey on equalization is conducted. The focus has been placed on several popular linear equalization algorithm such as the conventional least-mean-square (LMS) algorithm, the recursive least squares (RLS) algorithm, the fi1tered-X LMS algorithm and their development. The approach in analysing the performance of the filtered-X LMS Algorithm, a heuristic method based on linear time-invariant operator theory is provided to analyse the robust perfonnance of the filtered-X structure. It indicates that the extra filter could enhance the stability margin of the corresponding non filtered X structure. To overcome the slow convergence problem while keeping the simplicity of the LMS based algorithms, an H2 optimal initialization is proposed.

Joint space-time trellis decoding and channel estimation in correlated fading channels

This letter addresses the issue of joint space-time trellis decoding and channel estimation in time-varying fading channels that are spatially and temporally correlated. A recursive space-time receiver which incorporates per-survivor processing (PSP) and Kalman filtering into the Viterbi algorithm is proposed. This approach generalizes existing work to the correlated fading channel case. The channel time-evolution is modeled by a multichannel autoregressive process, and a bank of Kalman filters is used to track the channel variations. Computer simulation results show that a performance close to the maximum likelihood receiver with perfect channel state information (CSI) can be obtained. The effects of the spatial correlation on the performance of a receiver that assumes independent fading channels are examined.

Publication bias in the economic freedom and economic growth literature

The impact of institutions on economic performance has attracted significant attention from researchers, as well as from policy reformers. A rapidly growing area in this literature is the impact of economic freedom on economic growth. The aim of this paper was to explore publication bias in this literature by means of traditional funnel plots, meta‐significance testing, as well as by bootstrapping these meta‐significance tests. When all the available estimates are combined and averaged, there seems to be evidence of a genuine and positive economic freedom – economic growth effect. However, it is also shown that the economic freedom – economic growth literature is tainted strongly with publication bias. The existence of publication bias makes it difficult to identify the magnitude of the genuine effect of economic freedom on economic growth. The paper explores the differences between aggregate and disaggregate measures of economic freedom and shows that selection effects are stronger when aggregate measures are used.

Methodological shifts in ratio-based modelling of corporate collapse

The year 1968 saw a major shift from univariate to multivariate methodological approaches to ratio-based modelling of corporate collapse. This was facilitated by the introduction of a new statistical tool called Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA). However, it did not take long before other statistical tools were developed. The primary objective for developing these tools was to enable deriving models that would at least do as good a job asMDA, but rely on fewer assumptions. With the introduction of new statistical tools, researchers became pre-occupied with testing them in signalling collapse. lLTUong the ratio-based approaches were Logit analysis, Neural Network analysis, Probit analysis, ID3, Recursive Partitioning Algorithm, Rough Sets analysis, Decomposition analysis, Going Concern Advisor, Koundinya and Purl judgmental approach, Tabu Search and Mixed Logit analysis. Regardless of which methodological approach was chosen, most were compared to MDA. This paper reviews these various approaches. Emphasis is placed on how they fared against MDA in signalling corporate collapse.

Improving the performance of the LMS and RLS algorithms for adaptive equalizer

In this paper, we present the experiment results of three adaptive equalization algorithms: least-mean-square (LMS) algorithm, discrete cosine transform-least mean square (DCT-LMS) algorithm, and recursive least square (RLS) algorithm. Based on the experiments, we obtained that the convergence rate of LMS is slow; the convergence rate of RLS is great faster while the computational price is expensive; the performance of that two parameters of DCT-LMS are between the previous two algorithms, but still not good enough. Therefore we will propose an algorithm based on H2 in a coming paper to solve the problems.

Application of fast and robust equalization in communication technology

In this paper, the authors explore the potential of several popular equalization techniques while overcoming their disadvantages. First, extensive literature survey on equalization is conducted. The focus is on popular linear equalization algorithms such as the conventional least-mean-square (LMS) algorithm , The recursive least-squares (RLS) algorithm, the filtered-X LMS algorithm and their development. To overcome the slow convergence problem while keeping the simplicity of the LMS based algorithms, an H2 optimal initialization is proposed.

Organizing dualities and strategizing for change

This paper examines the role of organizing forms in strategizing for change. It argues that a duality approach aids in understanding how organizing influences and leverages strategizing for change. Three propositions are presented.

First, organizing is strategizing. This represents the interaction between organizing and strategizing, where organizing forms enable and constrain strategic change. Second, tension in forms of organizing can be the source of strategic advantage. The main challenge is to develop systems that function best in tension, delivering both efficiency and innovation. A dualities approach emphasizes the need not only to hold fast to routines but also to attempt to subvert them with innovations. It is this combination that facilitates strategic change. Third, heterogeneity in organizing forms offers strategic adaptability by providing increased opportunities for innovation.

This paper concludes that despite the appeal of calls for organizations to become capable of constant change, the advantages of flexibility are compromised by the disadvantages of instability and uncertainty. Furthermore, the study of organizing forms reveals that change is continuous at the micro level but discontinuous at the macro level. Thus the relationship between organizing and strategizing can subsequently be non-linear and recursive, with strategic advantages achieved through tension and heterogeneity in organizing.

Forecasting inflation, industrial output and exchange rates : a template study for India

This paper reports results from a forecasting study for inflation, industrial output and exchange rates for India. We cannot reject the null hypothesis for linearity for all series used except for the growth rate of the foreign exchange series and our analysis is based on linear models, ARIMA and bivariate transfer functions and restricted VAR. Forecasting performance is evaluated using the models’ root mean-squared error differences and Theil’s inequality coefficients from recursive origin static, fixed origin dynamic and rolling origin dynamic forecasts. For models based on weekly data, based on RMSEs, we find that the bivariate models improve upon the forecasts of the ARIMA model while for models based on monthly data the ARIMA model has almost always better performance. In choosing between the two bivariate models on the basis of RMSEs, our overall results tend to support the use of a restricted VAR, as this model had the best forecasting performance more frequently than the transfer function model.