Recession-oscopy : can universities be the light at the end?

This paper paints the philosophical and ethical backdrop to some of the issues raised in Australian Universities’ Review vol. 53, no. 2. It links academic performance pay; the measurement of research output; and the astonishing pay levels of vice chancellors to the present global financial crisis. These are explained as part of a general malaise of institutions, which has its roots in the early Enlightenment. Drawing from semioticians Charles Sanders Peirce and John Deely it uses the terms ideoscopy and cenoscopy to characterise the hijacking of unwarranted scientific status for much of the way our world is managed. But crisis can lead to opportunity. Consequently, the paper points to the glaring opportunity for thinkers who can articulate the present situation in a way which could avert disaster.

Economically inactive, unemployed and employed suicides in Australia by age and sex over a 10-year period: what was the impact of the 2007 economic recession?

Suicide is higher among economically inactive and unemployed persons than employed persons. This paper investigates differences in this relationship by sex and age over the period 2001 to 2010 in Australia. It also examines changes in suicide among employed, unemployed and economically inactive persons during the recession of 2007-09.

Should we save or should we consume? Linking growth theories and the Keynesian models

In major economic growth theories, high saving rate gives rise to high level of output per capita. But in Keynesian economics, high saving rate causes low consumption and will lead the economy into recession. Students may ask, "For the well-being of an economy, should we save or should we consume?" In most of the intermediate macroeconomics textbooks, economic growth and Keynesian economics are taught in separate chapters; and in many cases, these chapters are not even successive to each other. There lacks a continuity between the long run and short run models. This paper builds a bridge between growth theories and Keynesian models. It links the Solow diagram and the IS-LM curves and depicts the short run and long run implications of a change in the saving rate.

To save or to consume: linking growth theory with the Keynesian model

In the neoclassical growth theory, higher saving rate gives rise to higher output per capita. However, in the Keynesian model, higher saving rate causes lower consumption, which may lead to a recession. Students may ask, “Should we save or should we consume?” In most of the macroeconomics textbooks, economic growth and Keynesian economics are in separate, sometimes unsequential, chapters. The connection between the short run and the long run is not apparent. The author builds a bridge between the neoclassical growth theory and the Keynesian model. He links the Solow diagram and the IS-LM curves and depicts the short-run to long-run transition of the economy after changes in saving and other macroeconomic policies.

Does monetary policy matter in a less developed economy? Evidence from Bangladesh

This paper explores the role of monetary policy in the context of a less developed economy. Monetary transmission mechanisms in less developed economies can be quite different from an industrialized economy, as unlike industrialized countries, these economies are characterized by the small size of organized financial markets, limited substitutability between money and other assets and weak fiscal and monetary institutions. We utilize the Structural VAR approach to analyze the monetary transmission process and impacts of monetary policy on different macro variables in Bangladesh. Monetary policy shocks are identified using non-recursive contemporaneous restrictions, which are based on the Central Bank's reaction function and the structure of the economy. We found strong evidence for the interest rate channel of monetary policy in Bangladesh. Our findings indicate that monetary policy shocks are important sources of fluctuations in the rate of interest, output and prices. Expansionary monetary policies are found to be harmful for achieving price stability in Bangladesh, as they not only increase the prices permanently, but also make the price level more volatile. We also found the evidence of a long lasting effect of monetary policy on output, which suggests that contractionary policy measures may create sustained recession in Bangladesh.

Post global financial crisis international business strategies

International business strategies are affected by economic conditions, although the resource-based view would suggest that company resources are a more significant factor. This paper identifies differences in the international strategy behaviours of companies located in countries which, as a result of the GFC, entered either a deep recession, a shallow recession or no recession at all. Empirical evidence is provided for companies with home country markets with each of these conditions. The ability of international strategy theories to explain these behaviours is considered. Based on observations of international businesses with home country markets in each of these categories, it is suggested that determinants of international strategy during financial crises (and immediately after) are influenced by the strength of the home country market, foreign market government protectionist behaviour, international exchange rate variations and local levels of rivalry.

Australia-China and Stern Hu : a dint in relations or business as usual?

China’s economic growth over the last decade has been spectacular and Australia has been a beneficiary of this growth in terms of China’s demand for resources and the strength of Chinese exports. Pundits even suggest that Australia avoided the global recession as a result of this strong trade relationship. Trade relations between Australia and China resulted in China becoming Australia’s key trading partner. The arrest and charging in 2009/10 of four Rio Tinto executives (including Stern Hu the head of Rio’s operation in China) based in China raised fears of posing a strain on this vital economic relationship. Moreover China’s inability to takeover Rio Tinto and the significance and consequences of this incident are at the core of this paper. How do these events reflect the uncertainties of doing business in China or do these events demonstrate China’s sovereign right to enforce anti-corruption legislation? While China has embraced the international business community, to what extent has the arrest and imprisonment of Stern Hu changed the Australian-China trade
relations including doing business in this thriving and buoyant market?

Has the structural break slowed down growth rates of stock markets?

In this paper, we use the common structural break test suggested by Bai et al. (1998) to test for a common structural break in the stock prices of the US, the UK, and Japan. On the basis of the structural break, we divide each country's stock price series into sub-samples and investigate whether or not the structural break had slowed down the growth of stock markets. Our main findings are that when stock markets are modelled in a trivariate sense the common structural break turns out to be 1990:02, with the confidence interval including several episodes, such as the asset price bubble when housing prices and stock prices in Japan reached a peak in 1988/1989, the early 1990s recession in the UK, the business cycle peak of July 1990, the August 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the March 1991 business cycle trough. Annual average growth rates suggest that the structural break has slowed down the growth rate of the US, the UK and Japanese stock markets.

Design with nature : a proposed model for coastal settlements in Australia adapting to climate change and extreme weather events

The Australian coast is rich in history and is scattered with coastal settlements amongst a contrasting landscape with infinite visual and ecological diversity. These attributes provide the opportunity to create sustainable and resilient settlements, linking the wholeness of a place to the foundation of living in harmony with nature. On the contrary the coastal regions of Australia are facing dynamic changes of population growth including the looming impact of a changing climate. Acknowledging these challenges, the Australian Government highlighted that one of the key requirements for a sustainable future is to establish sustainable settlements that are resilient against the impacts of climate change. Recent government studies and reports highlighted various possible impacts to the Australian coast and regional settlements due to sea level rise with associated coastal recession, extreme weather events, flooding, and prolonged heat waves. Various adaptation frameworks are proposed to deal with this issue, but very few consider the relationship between ecological systems and human built environments. The resilience planning of settlements must consider the co-evolution of human and nature under future climate effects. This paper is thus seeking answers to the question: How can the theoretical principles of Design with Nature (McHarg, 1967) and The Nature of Order (Alexander, 1980) provide for input to a adaptation model for settlements along the coast? Reflecting on a literature review of these two well established theories, the author select key principles from both as input to a ecological design based adaptation model for coastal settlements, which establishes a system of unfolding steps to create sustainable communities that connect with the landscape, and are resilient against future impacts of change.

Hydrograph separation and development of empirical relationships using single-parameter digital filters

A reliable hydrograph separation method is necessary for surface runoff modeling and hydrological studies. This paper investigates and compares the separation characteristics of two single-parameter digital filters, which are herein referred to as the one-parameter algorithm and the conceptual method. The application of the one-parameter algorithm was found to be restricted to low and medium baseflow separations, with a maximum separation limit of 50% of the total runoff hydrograph. The one-parameter algorithm was also observed to produce unrealistic sharp peaks under the peaks of the measured hydrograph when recession constant is smaller than 0.96. On the other hand, the conceptual method is applicable even for catchments fed largely by groundwater discharge. However, a reliable estimation of recession constant is a prerequisite for applying the conceptual method for large baseflow separations. Based on the hydrograph separation results, useful empirical relationships were developed for a partially urbanized watershed to estimate total runoff and direct runoff from the measured rainfall depth. The relationships between rainfall depth and total runoff depth and rainfall depth and direct runoff depth were found to be well represented by linear equations. The empirical relationships were then applied to estimate the long-term contribution of baseflow and surface runoff to total runoff at the study site. Baseflow was found to contribute about 58–61% of the annual total runoff.

Generation of total runoff hydrographs using a method derived from a digital filter algorithm

A reliable prediction of the total runoff hydrograph is necessary for water resources management. This study investigates two approaches to generate total runoff hydrograph by adding baseflow to direct runoff hydrographs. The first approach uses a method, derived from a digital filter algorithm for hydrograph separation, to generate baseflow hydrographs from direct runoff hydrographs. The method appears to perform well in producing the overall shape of the total runoff hydrographs and the acceptable mass balance errors for a year of water cycle. For application, the recession baseflow constant needs to be estimated reliably and the initial baseflow could be approximated to the long-term mean dry weather flow. The second approach assumes a constant baseflow rate. Although this approach is still capable of producing the overall hydrograph shape, it yields high mass balance errors in the total runoff hydrographs for both monthly and long-term periods. Further analysis shows that two-third of the mass balance errors are contributed from periods with direct runoff, implying that the constant baseflow assumption could introduce significant errors into the computations of total runoff hydrograph

Nurse plant effects of a dominant shrub (Duma florulenta) on understorey vegetation in a large, semi-arid wetland in relation to flood frequency and drying

 Questions: Do nurse plant interactions significantly influence understorey vegetation diversity in a large, semi-arid, shrub-dominated wetland? How do the modes and net effects of nurse plant interactions vary spatially along a flood frequency gradient, and temporally in response to drying? Location: Narran Lakes Ramsar site, New South Wales, Australia. Methods: Microhabitat characteristics, understorey vegetation and germinable soil seed banks were investigated in shrub and open habitats across a flood frequency gradient in a large, semi-arid wetland dominated by open shrubland under productive conditions following floodwater recession and again following 6 mo of drought. Split-plot ANOVA and multivariate analyses were used to determine the effects of shrubs on microhabitat character, understorey vegetation cover, species diversity, richness and composition and germinable soil seed banks. Results: Microhabitat characteristics, including canopy cover, litter cover and soil character, all differed between shrub and open habitats, especially in the most frequently flooded sites. Under productive conditions following flooding, lignum shrubs suppressed understorey vegetation cover but increased species richness at the site scale across the flood frequency gradient and, in the most frequently flooded sites, supported higher species density at a microhabitat scale. Under dry conditions, lignum shrubs had a positive effect on understorey vegetation cover, species richness and species density across the flood frequency gradient, but particularly in frequently flooded sites. A significant difference in soil seed bank composition between shrub and open habitats was only observed in frequently flooded sites. Conclusions: Nurse plant interactions appear to play an important role in determining understorey vegetation diversity in the lignum shrubland of the Narran Lakes wetland system. The modes and net effects of these nurse plant interactions vary in space and time in relation to flood history and drying. Positive interactions, probably involving microhabitat amelioration, appear to be particularly important to plant diversity and abundance under dry conditions. Under more favourable wetter conditions, lignum shrubs also contribute to understorey vegetation diversity by facilitating the establishment of different species than those dominating open habitats. Our findings have implications for the management of perennial shrubs and hydrological regimes in such wetlands.

Occupational class differences in suicide: evidence of changes over time and during the global financial crisis in Australia

BACKGROUND: Previous research showed an increase in Australian suicide rates during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). There has been no research investigating whether suicide rates by occupational class changed during the GFC. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the GFC-associated increase in suicide rates in employed Australians may have masked changes by occupational class.

METHODS: Negative binomial regression models were used to investigate Rate Ratios (RRs) in suicide by occupational class. Years of the GFC (2007, 2008, 2009) were compared to the baseline years 2001-2006.

RESULTS: There were widening disparities between a number of the lower class occupations and the highest class occupations during the years 2007, 2008, and 2009 for males, but less evidence of differences for females.

CONCLUSIONS: Occupational disparities in suicide rates widened over the GFC period. There is a need for programs to be responsive to economic downturns, and to prioritise the occupational groups most affected.