Using Pareto principle plus statistic methodology in establishing a cost estimating model

Previous experience and research indicated that the Pareto Principle (80/20 Principle) has been widely used in many industries to achieve more with less. The study described in this paper concurs that this principle can be applied to improve the estimating accuracy and efficiency, especially in design development stage of projects. In fact, establishing an effective cost estimating model to improve accuracy and efficiency in design development stage has been a subject, which has attracted many research attentions over several decades. For over almost 40 years, research studies indicate that using the 80/20 Principle is one of the approaches. However, most of these studies were built by assumption, theoretical analysis or questionnaire survey. The objective of this research is to explore a logical and systematic method to establish a cost estimating model based on the Pareto Principle. This paper includes extensive literatures review on cost estimating accuracy and efficiency in the construction industry that points out the current gap of knowledge area and understanding of the topical. These reviews assist in developing the direction for the research and explore the potential methodology of using the Pareto Principle in the new cost estimating model. The findings of this paper suggest that combining the Pareto Principle with statistical analysis could be used as the technique to improve the accuracy and efficiency of current estimating methods in design development stage.

Condition monitoring of broken rotor bars using a hybrid FMM-GA model

A condition monitoring system for induction motors using a hybrid Fuzzy Min-Max (FMM) neural network and Genetic Algorithm (GA) is presented in this paper. Two types of experiments, one from the finite element method and another from real laboratory tests of broken rotor bars in an induction motor are conducted. The induction motor with broken rotor bars is operated under different load conditions. FMM is first used for learning and distinguishing between a healthy motor and one with broken rotor bars. The GA is then utilized for extracting fuzzy if-then rules using the don’t care approach in minimizing the number of rules. The results clearly demonstrate the effectiveness of the hybrid FMM-GA model in condition monitoring of broken rotor bars in induction motors.

Intensive case management for high-risk patients with first-episode psychosis: service model and outcomes

Background : The first episode of psychosis is a crucial period when early intervention can alter the trajectory of the young person's ongoing mental health and general functioning. After an investigation into completed suicides in the Early Psychosis Prevention and Intervention Centre (EPPIC) programme, the intensive case management subprogramme was developed in 2003 to provide assertive outreach to young people having a first episode of psychosis who are at high risk owing to risk to self or others, disengagement, or suboptimal recovery. We report intensive case management model development, characterise the target cohort, and report on outcomes compared with EPPIC treatment as usual.

Methods : Inclusion criteria, staff support, referral pathways, clinical review processes, models of engagement and care, and risk management protocols are described. We compared 120 consecutive referrals with 50 EPPIC treatment as usual patients (age 15–24 years) in a naturalistic stratified quasi-experimental real-world design. Key performance indicators of service use plus engagement and suicide attempts were compared between EPPIC treatment as usual and intensive case management, and psychosocial and clinical measures were compared between intensive case management referral and discharge.

Findings : Referrals were predominately unemployed males with low levels of functioning and educational attainment. They were characterised by a family history of mental illness, migration and early separation, with substantial trauma, history of violence, and forensic attention. Intensive case management improved psychopathology and psychosocial outcomes in high-risk patients and reduced risk ratings, admissions, bed days, and crisis contacts.

Interpretation : Characterisation of intensive case management patients validated the clinical research focus and identified a first episode of psychosis high-risk subgroup. In a real-world study, implementation of an intensive case management stream within a well-established first episode of psychosis service showed significant improvement in key service outcomes. Further analysis is needed to determine cost savings and effects on psychosocial outcomes. Targeting intensive case management services to high-risk patients with unmet needs should reduce the distress associated with pathways to care for patients, their families, and the community.

Application of radial return mapping algorithm for finite strain elastoplasticity in a hybrid finite element and particle-in-cell model

The radial return mapping algorithm within the computational context of a hybrid Finite Element and Particle-In-Cell (FE/PIC) method is constructed to allow a fluid flow FE/PIC code to be applied solid mechanic problems with large displacements and large deformations. The FE/PIC method retains the robustness of an Eulerian mesh and enables tracking of material deformation by a set of Lagrangian particles or material points. In the FE/PIC approach the particle velocities are interpolated from nodal velocities and then the particle position is updated using a suitable integration scheme, such as the 4th order Runge-Kutta scheme[1]. The strain increments are obtained from gradients of the nodal velocities at the material point positions, which are then used to evaluate the stress increment and update history variables. To obtain the stress increment from the strain increment, the nonlinear constitutive equations are solved in an incremental iterative integration scheme based on a radial return mapping algorithm[2]. A plane stress extension of a rectangular shape J2 elastoplastic material with isotropic, kinematic and combined hardening is performed as an example and for validation of the enhanced FE/PIC method. It is shown that the method is suitable for analysis of problems in crystal plasticity and metal forming. The method is specifically suitable for simulation of neighbouring microstructural phases with different constitutive equations in a multiscale material modelling framework.

Methodology for extracting quasi-random samples from world wide web domains

The purpose of this paper is to describe a process for sampling specific domain name zones on the World Wide Web. Because of the size of the Web, sampling strategies must be employed in order to effectively model and study the Web business environment.  This paper discusses Various efforts employed to sample the Web, which ranged from random generation of Internet Protocol Addresses and domain names, to the process finally
employed to create descriptive models of the dot-com domain name zones. The paper suggests that sampling the Web Top Level Domains offers a reasonable alternative for business researchers because it requires only familiarity with the use of the simple Web utilities such as File Transfer
Protocols to obtain initial domain name listings.

Correlation structure and model selection for negative binomial distribution in GEE

A new model selection criterion, termed as the “quasi-likelihood under the independence model criterion” (QIC), was proposed by Pan (2001) for GEE models. Cui (2007) developed a general computing program to implement the QIC method for a range of statistical distributions. However, only a special case of the negative binomial distribution was considered in Cui (2007), where the dispersion parameter equals to unity. This article introduces a new computing program that can be applied for the general negative binomial model, where the dispersion parameter can be any fixed value. An example is also given in this article.

Fractional polynomials and model selection in generalized estimating equations analysis, with an application to a longitudinal epidemiologic study in Australia

In epidemiologic studies, researchers often need to establish a nonlinear exposure-response relation between a continuous risk factor and a health outcome. Furthermore, periodic interviews are often conducted to take repeated measurements from an individual. The authors proposed to use fractional polynomial models to jointly analyze the effects of 2 continuous risk factors on a health outcome. This method was applied to an analysis of the effects of age and cumulative fluoride exposure on forced vital capacity in a longitudinal study of lung function carried out among aluminum workers in Australia (1995-2003). Generalized estimating equations and the quasi-likelihood under the independence model criterion were used. The authors found that the second-degree fractional polynomial models for age and fluoride fitted the data best. The best model for age was robust across different models for fluoride, and the best model for fluoride was also robust. No evidence was found to suggest that the effects of smoking and cumulative fluoride exposure on change in forced vital capacity over time were significant. The trend 1 model, which included the unexposed persons in the analysis of trend in forced vital capacity over tertiles of fluoride exposure, did not fit the data well, and caution should be exercised when this method is used.

Family recovery from youth substance use related problems : a pilot study of the BEST plus program

Youth substance use related problems are increasingly common, and families experience considerable stress in attempting to cope with these problems. A pilot study of 34 Australian parents from 21 families (38% sole parent families) participating in an 8-week group program, designed to assist families recover from youth substance use related problems, provided the context to explore family change processes. Participants reported a number of significant improvements over the course of the four groups that ran from late 2003 and through 2004. Regression analyses found general support for the program logic model in identifying significant associations between program-targeted parent changes and post-program improvements in stress symptoms and cohesive family behaviors. The study's limitations are noted.

Brand salience and purchasing for consumer banking services : an empirically-based model

The research reported in this paper proposed and tested a model of brand salience for banking services, which incorporates knowledge and brand image as antecedents. A full model of brand salience has not been tested previously, nor has a model of brand salience for services been tested. A quasi-experimental method was utilised. Respondents undertook a free recall exercise using category cues, and then completed multi-item measures of brand knowledge, brand associations, and purchase likelihood. Past purchase was tested via a recall exercise. A usable sample of 270 respondents was gained, and the data were analysed using Structural Equation Modelling (SEM). Analysis of the data found support for a model of brand salience for the banking services category, and found a relationship between brand salience and most recent brand purchased. This paper contributes to the field of branding by proposing and testing a model of brand salience. The research reported in this paper may suggest that advertisers need to design their communications to increase accessibility of brands in the memory of consumers, and that the last brand purchased by consumers will have an effect on their next purchase decision, especially in the consumer banking category.

Instructional strategies integrating cognitive style construct : a meta-knowledge processing model

The overarching goal of this dissertation was to evaluate the contextual components of instructional strategies for the acquisition of complex programming concepts. A meta-knowledge processing model is proposed, on the basis of the research findings, thereby facilitating the selection of media treatment for electronic courseware. When implemented, this model extends the work of Smith (1998), as a front-end methodology, for his glass-box interpreter called Bradman, for teaching novice programmers. Technology now provides the means to produce individualized instructional packages with relative ease. Multimedia and Web courseware development accentuate a highly graphical (or visual) approach to instructional formats. Typically, little consideration is given to the effectiveness of screen-based visual stimuli, and curiously, students are expected to be visually literate, despite the complexity of human-computer interaction. Visual literacy is much harder for some people to acquire than for others! (see Chapter Four: Conditions-of-the-Learner) An innovative research programme was devised to investigate the interactive effect of instructional strategies, enhanced with text-plus-textual metaphors or text-plus-graphical metaphors, and cognitive style, on the acquisition of a special category of abstract (process) programming concept. This type of concept was chosen to focus on the role of analogic knowledge involved in computer programming. The results are discussed within the context of the internal/external exchange process, drawing on Ritchey's (1980) concepts of within-item and between-item encoding elaborations. The methodology developed for the doctoral project integrates earlier research knowledge in a novel, interdisciplinary, conceptual framework, including: from instructional science in the USA, for the concept learning models; British cognitive psychology and human memory research, for defining the cognitive style construct; and Australian educational research, to provide the measurement tools for instructional outcomes. The experimental design consisted of a screening test to determine cognitive style, a pretest to determine prior domain knowledge in abstract programming knowledge elements, the instruction period, and a post-test to measure improved performance. This research design provides a three-level discovery process to articulate: 1) the fusion of strategic knowledge required by the novice learner for dealing with contexts within instructional strategies 2) acquisition of knowledge using measurable instructional outcome and learner characteristics 3) knowledge of the innate environmental factors which influence the instructional outcomes This research has successfully identified the interactive effect of instructional strategy, within an individual's cognitive style construct, in their acquisition of complex programming concepts. However, the significance of the three-level discovery process lies in the scope of the methodology to inform the design of a meta-knowledge processing model for instructional science. Firstly, the British cognitive style testing procedure, is a low cost, user friendly, computer application that effectively measures an individual's position on the two cognitive style continua (Riding & Cheema,1991). Secondly, the QUEST Interactive Test Analysis System (Izard,1995), allows for a probabilistic determination of an individual's knowledge level, relative to other participants, and relative to test-item difficulties. Test-items can be related to skill levels, and consequently, can be used by instructional scientists to measure knowledge acquisition. Finally, an Effect Size Analysis (Cohen,1977) allows for a direct comparison between treatment groups, giving a statistical measurement of how large an effect the independent variables have on the dependent outcomes. Combined with QUEST's hierarchical positioning of participants, this tool can assist in identifying preferred learning conditions for the evaluation of treatment groups. By combining these three assessment analysis tools into instructional research, a computerized learning shell, customised for individuals' cognitive constructs can be created (McKay & Garner,1999). While this approach has widespread application, individual researchers/trainers would nonetheless, need to validate with an extensive pilot study programme (McKay,1999a; McKay,1999b), the interactive effects within their specific learning domain. Furthermore, the instructional material does not need to be limited to a textual/graphical comparison, but could be applied to any two or more instructional treatments of any kind. For instance: a structured versus exploratory strategy. The possibilities and combinations are believed to be endless, provided the focus is maintained on linking of the front-end identification of cognitive style with an improved performance outcome. My in-depth analysis provides a better understanding of the interactive effects of the cognitive style construct and instructional format on the acquisition of abstract concepts, involving spatial relations and logical reasoning. In providing the basis for a meta-knowledge processing model, this research is expected to be of interest to educators, cognitive psychologists, communications engineers and computer scientists specialising in computer-human interactions.

Selection of working correlation structure and best model in GEE analyses of longitudinal data

The Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) method is one of the most commonly used statistical methods for the analysis of longitudinal data in epidemiological studies. A working correlation structure for the repeated measures of the outcome variable of a subject needs to be specified by this method. However, statistical criteria for selecting the best correlation structure and the best subset of explanatory variables in GEE are only available recently because the GEE method is developed on the basis of quasi-likelihood theory. Maximum likelihood based model selection methods, such as the widely used Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), are not applicable to GEE directly. Pan (2001) proposed a selection method called QIC which can be used to select the best correlation structure and the best subset of explanatory variables. Based on the QIC method, we developed a computing program to calculate the QIC value for a range of different distributions, link functions and correlation structures. This program was written in Stata software. In this article, we introduce this program and demonstrate how to use it to select the most parsimonious model in GEE analyses of longitudinal data through several representative examples.

Expression of the disintegrin metalloprotease ADAM-10 in prostate cancer and its regulation by dihydrotestosterone, insulin like growth factor -1 and epidermal growth factor in the prostate cell model LNCaP

Purpose: The disintegrin metalloprotease ADAM-10 is a multidomain metalloprotease that is potentially significant in tumor progression due to its extracellular matrix-degrading properties. Previously, ADAM-10 mRNA was detected in prostate cancer (PCa) cell lines; however, the presence of ADAM-10 protein and its cellular localization, regulation, and role have yet to be described. We hypothesized that ADAM-10 mRNA and protein may be regulated by growth factors such as 5α-dihydrotestosterone, insulin-like growth factor I, and epidermal growth factor, known modulators of PCa cell growth and invasion.

Experimental Design: ADAM-10 expression was analyzed by in situ hybridization and immunohistochemistry in prostate tissues obtained from 23 patients with prostate disease. ADAM-10 regulation was assessed using quantitative reverse transcription-PCR and Western blot analysis in the PCa cell line LNCaP.

Results: ADAM-10 expression was localized to the secretory cells of prostate glands, with additional basal cell expression in benign glands. ADAM-10 protein was predominantly membrane bound in benign glands but showed marked nuclear localization in cancer glands. By Western blot, the 100-kDa proform and the 60-kDa active form of ADAM-10 were synergistically up-regulated in LNCaP cells treated with insulin-like growth factor I plus 5α-dihydrotestosterone. Epidermal growth factor also up-regulated both ADAM-10 mRNA and protein.

Conclusions: This study describes for the first time the expression, regulation, and cellular localization of ADAM-10 protein in PCa. The regulation and membrane localization of ADAM-10 support our hypothesis that ADAM-10 has a role in extracellular matrix maintenance and cell invasion, although the potential role of nuclear ADAM-10 is not yet known.

Children's physical activity levels during school recess : a quasi-experimental intervention study

Background : Recess provides a daily opportunity for children to engage in moderate-to-vigorous (MVPA) and vigorous physical activity (VPA). Limited research has investigated the effects of recess-based interventions on physical activity using large sample sizes whilst investigating variables that may influence the intervention effect. The aim of the study was to investigate the short-term effects of a playground markings and physical structures intervention on recess physical activity. A secondary aim was to investigate the effects of covariates on the intervention.

Methods : 150 boys and 147 girls were randomly selected from 26 elementary schools to wear uni-axial accelerometers that quantified physical activity every 5 seconds during recess. Fifteen schools located in deprived areas in one large urban city in England received funding through a national initiative to redesign the playground environment. Eleven schools served as matched socioeconomic controls. Data were collected at baseline and 6-weeks following playground intervention. Recess MVPA and VPA levels adjusted for pupil- and school-level covariates (baseline physical activity, age, gender, recess length, body mass index) were analysed using multilevel analyses.

Results : Positive but non-significant intervention effects were found for MVPA and VPA when confounding variables were added to the model. Gender was a significant predictor of recess physical activity, with boys engaging in more MVPA and VPA than girls. Significant interactions for MVPA revealed that the intervention effect was stronger for younger elementary aged school children compared to older children, and the intervention effect increased as daily recess duration increased.

Conclusion : The playground redesign intervention resulted in small but non-significant increases in children's recess physical activity when school and pupil level variables were added to the analyses. Changing the playground environment produced a stronger intervention effect for younger children, and longer daily recess duration enabled children to engage in more MVPA following the intervention. This study concludes that the process of increasing recess physical activity is complex when school and pupil-level covariates are considered, though they should be taken into account when investigating the effects of playground intervention studies on children's physical activity during recess.

Brand salience for fast-moving consumer goods : an empirically based model

Brand salience, or the prominence of a brand in memory, has been linked to brand choice and purchase by consumers. The research reported in this paper proposed and tested a model of brand salience for fast-moving consumer goods, which incorporates knowledge, media consumption, and brand image as antecedents. A quasi-experimental method was utilised, where 270 respondents undertook a free recall exercise using category cues, and then completed multiitem measures of brand knowledge, brand associations, and purchase likelihood. Analysis of the data using SEM found support for an empirical model of brand salience where there was a relationship between brand salience and purchase likelihood. The empirical evidence supports building a brand in a primary category, in order to build the depth and breadth of the brand’s associations in consumer memory.

Dielectrophoresis of micro/nano particles using curved microelectrodes

Dielectrophoresis, the induced motion of polarisable particles in non-homogenous electric field, has been proven as a versatile mechanism to transport, immobilise, sort and characterise micro/nano scale particle in microfluidic platforms. The performance of dielectrophoretic (DEP) systems depend on two parameters: the configuration of microelectrodes designed to produce the DEP force and the operating strategies devised to employ this force in such processes. This work summarises the unique features of curved microelectrodes for the DEP manipulation of target particles in microfluidic systems. The curved microelectrodes demonstrate exceptional capabilities including (i) creating strong electric fields over a large portion of their structure, (ii) minimising electro-thermal vortices and undesired disturbances at their tips, (iii) covering the entire width of the microchannel influencing all passing particles, and (iv) providing a large trapping area at their entrance region, as evidenced by extensive numerical and experimental analyses. These microelectrodes have been successfully applied for a variety of engineering and biomedical applications including (i) sorting and trapping model polystyrene particles based on their dimensions, (ii) patterning carbon nanotubes to trap low-conductive particles, (iii) sorting live and dead cells based on their dielectric properties, (iv) real-time analysis of drug-induced cell death, and (v) interfacing tumour cells with environmental scanning electron microscopy to study their morphological properties. The DEP systems based on curved microelectrodes have a great potential to be integrated with the future lab-on-a-chip systems.