Multivariate modelling of landuse on in-stream salinity over multiple spatial scales

An impediment to sustainable dryland salinity management is the lack of information on contributing factors. GIS and satellite imagery now offer a cost-effective means of generating relevant land and water resource information for integrated regional management of salinity. In this paper the relationships between patterns in land uselcover distribution and base flow salt concentration in streams (indicated by EC) are investigated and modelled. The Glenelg-Hopkins area is a large regional watershed in southwest Victoria, Australia, covering approximately 2.6 million ha. It is currently estimated that 27,400 ha of land is affected by dryland salinity and this is predicted to rapidly increase in the next decade' if current conditions prevail. Salt concentration data from five gauging stations were analysed with multi-temporal land use maps obtained from satellite imagery. Multiple regression analyses demonstrated that the variables Native Vegetation and Dry/and Grain Cropping were the most significant influences on in~stream salinity in the whole catchment (1=88.9%) and 500 m V=88.3%) and 100 m riparian buffers (1=86.9%) during times of base flow. The implications for future land use planning, effectiveness of riparian zones and revegetation programmes is discussed. This work also demonstrates the utility of applying nmltivariate statistical analyses, spatial statistics, and remote sensing with data integrated in a GIS framework for the purpose of predicting and managing the regional salinity threat.

The solution to the dilemma presented by the guilty plea discount : the qualified guilty plea - I'm pleading guilty only because of the discount..."

The guilty plea sentencing discount is arguably a triumph of expediency over principle. Strong utilitarian reasons favour providing less severe sentences to defendants who plead guilty. However, an unsavoury by-product of the guilty plea discount is that some innocent people are pressured into pleading guilty. This article suggests that a possible solution to the problems caused by the discount is to permit defendants to enter a ‘qualified guilty plea’. While formally amounting to a guilty of plea, the defendant would be permitted to advance submissions consistent with innocence as part of the plea in mitigation. If the sentencer is persuaded that the defendant had a tenable chance of an acquittal a penalty discount in excess of that available for merely pleading guilty would be conferred.

Importance of administrative transparency in the correctional context : knowing the rules

As a class, prisoners are vulnerable to numerous privations while in custody. In particular, prisoners are at a distinct disadvantage in terms of being able to control the central features of their daily lives. The lives of prisoners are circumscribed by numerous rules and regulations and their administration by correctional administrators. It is important that prisoners are aware of the content of the rules that govern their existence and the precise basis upon which power is exercised over them. In a recent freedom of information application in Victoria, a prisoner sought a personal copy of the rules that would govern his life in that particular institution. The prison authorities refused that request. The prisoner then appealed that decision to the Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal and was unsuccessful. It is contended that the analysis used in that case was flawed through the misreading of the nature of correctional environment and the fundamental importance of transparency in such a context.

Chaos rules : an exploration of the work of instructional designers in distance education

This thesis provides an examination of the work of instructional designers in distance education, through the conceptual lens of chaos theory. Chaos theory was chosen as an analytical tool because of its ability to reveal the patterns and processes of complex systems as they move between order and turbulence. Recent work in the social sciences, specifically literary theory, has provided impetus for applications of chaos theory to educational settings. Specifically, chaos theory is used to analyse eight case studies of projects volunteered by instructional designers working in five institutions in Hong Kong and Australia. Data were gathered over a period of months with each participant, chiefly through interviews, but also involving diary accounts, electronic mail and letters. The methodology was thus qualitative, specifically informed by Eisner's vision of the ‘critical connoisseur’. Eisner equates an ‘enlightened eye’ with attainment of the skills of a critical connoisseur. First, an effective qualitative researcher must develop connoisseurship, the art of appreciation. On its own, though, connoisseurship is not enough; it is a private act, and thus needs a public face or presence. Criticism is this link, criticism being the art of disclosure. The critical connoisseur aims to help others to increase perception and deepen understanding of an educational situation or event. In addition to the empirical work, a parallel strand of this thesis investigates the theory and reported practice of instructional design. A brief history of instructional design is presented, along with discussion of acknowledged deficiencies of current theory and approaches. Recent reported investigations of both theory and practice are analysed from the viewpoint of chaos theory. Examination of key contributions in the literature of instructional design and distance education reveals considerable resonance between these contributions and the fundamental properties of chaotic systems. Links are made, in both the theoretical and empirical strands, between instructional design and the behaviour of dissipative structures, attractors and the process of bifurcation. Use is also made of the time-dependent nature of chaos theory as a theory of becoming, rather than one of being. The thesis comprises eight chapters, two appendices and a references section. The introductory chapter explains the research problem, and outlines the structure of the thesis. Methodological considerations are left until after an assessment of instructional design literature and (reported) practice. This deliberately theoretical investigation (Chapters 2 and 3) comprises the first of the parallel strands that are presented. The basic conclusions are that instructional design theory has not been particularly helpful to or used by instructional designers, and that chaos theory might provide an alternative way of viewing instructional design practice. The other parallel strand is the empirical work, which for four chapters outlines the methodology and my findings concerning the role of instructional designers in distance education. The methodology is detailed in Chapter 4. Chapter 5 establishes the contexts of the participants, by examining their backgrounds and introductions to their roles. It also investigates their views on their role and status within their institutions and with working colleagues. Chapter 6 is an exploration of the major issues that influenced the work of the instructional designers. These are the issues that arose naturally in the interviews as the participants outlined the development and interactions that took place on a day to day basis. Time emerges as a key influence in their work, and its effects on the projects are outlined and analysed. The ways that instructional designers give advice to those with whom they work is also investigated. The next chapter continues consideration of their work, but this time as they reflect on their role and its demands. This includes their reactions to the various metaphors that have appeared in the literature, along with those that they introduced into our discussions. The links that are established between the two parallel strands are drawn more explicitly in the final chapter, Chapter 8, which is a notion of what a model of instructional design based on my conclusions might resemble. It summarises the evidence that it is not necessarily by striving for order—in fact quite the opposite — during key periods of course development, that leads to creative outcomes. The introduction of uncertainty and turbulence does, in some cases and under some conditions, move the system to a higher level. The image that is offered from chaos theory is that of time-bound dissipative structures, interacting with their open environment at far-from-equilibrium conditions, and transforming themselves from disorder to order through bifurcation. The role of strange or chaotic attractors is highlighted in the process. The first appendix gives background information in terms of the methodology. The second is the heart of the data upon which the thesis draws. That is, the second appendix outlines the case studies of the participants. Most are short summaries, but the final one is a detailed study, tracing the progress of the design and development of a subject in distance education.

The longitudinal influence of home and neighbourhood environments on children's body mass index and physical activity over 5 years : the CLAN study

Objective: To determine the independent contributions of family and neighbourhood environments to changes in youth physical activity and body mass index (BMI) z-score over 5 years.

Methods: In 2001, 2004 and 2006, 301 children (10–12 years at baseline) had their height and weight measured (BMI was converted to z-scores using Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reference charts; see http://www.cdc.gov/growthcharts) and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) assessed using accelerometers. In 2001, parents reported on the home environment (social support, role modelling, rules and restrictions, physical environment) and perceived neighbourhood environment (local traffic, road safety, sporting venues, public transport), and Geographic Information Systems were used to map features of the neighbourhood environment (destinations, road connectivity, traffic exposure). Generalized estimating equations were used to predict average BMI z-score and MVPA over time from baseline home and perceived and objective neighbourhood environment factors.

Results: Among boys, maternal education and heavy traffic were inversely associated, and sibling physical activity, maternal role modelling of MVPA and the presence of dead-end roads were positively associated with MVPA. Having unmarried parents, maternal MVPA role modelling and number of home sedentary items were positively associated with BMI z-score among boys. Among girls, having siblings, paternal MVPA role modelling, physical activity rules and parental physical activity co-participation were positively associated with MVPA. Having unmarried parents and maternal sedentary behaviour role modelling were positively associated, and number of sedentary behaviour rules and physical activity items were inversely associated with BMI z-score among girls.

Conclusion: The home environment seems more important than the neighbourhood environment in influencing children's physical activity and BMI z-score over 5 years. Physical activity and weight gain programmes among youth should focus on parental role modelling, rules around sedentary and active pursuits, and parental support for physical activity. Intervention studies to investigate these strategies are warranted.

What decision rules might pink-footed geese use to depart on migration? An individual-based model

Decisions taken during migration can have a large effect on the fitness of birds. Migration must be accurately timed with food availability to allow efficient fueling but is also constrained by the optimal arrival date at the breeding site. The decision of when to leave a site can be driven by energetics (sufficient body stores to fuel flight), time-related cues (internal clock under photoperiodic control), or external cues (temperature, food resources). An individual based model (IBM) that allows a mechanistic description of a range of departure decision rules was applied to the spring migration of pink-footed geese (Anser brachyrhynchus) from wintering grounds in Denmark to breeding grounds on Svalbard via 2 Norwegian staging sites. By comparing predicted with observed departure dates, we tested 7 decision rules. The most accurate predictions were obtained from a decision rule based on a combination of cues including the amount of body stores, date, and plant phenology. Decision rules changed over the course of migration with the external cue decreasing in importance and the time-related cue increasing in importance for sites closer to breeding grounds. These results are in accordance with descriptions of goose migration, following the “green-wave”: Geese track the onset of plant growth as it moves northward in spring, with an uncoupling toward the end of the migration if time is running out. We demonstrate the potential of IBMs to study the possible mechanisms underlying stopover ecology in migratory birds and to serve as tools to predict consequences of environmental change.

Indirect government controls over Australia's social security expenditure : a Foucauldian analysis

Purpose – The aim of this study is to examine how the use of indirect government control mechanisms is used as a means of holding government agencies such as job network providers and recipients of social security benefits accountable. The mechanisms of indirect government will be examined using Michel Foucault's discourses on disciplinary power, surveillance and normalisation.

Design/methodology/approach – The mechanisms of indirect government are investigated through a survey questionnaire and focus group interviews. The questionnaire is assessed and analysed using descriptive statistics and principal component analysis with varimax rotation.

Findings – It is found that the rationing and disciplinary mechanisms of the breaching regime, through a process of disciplinary power, surveillance and normalisation, combine to help hold government agencies and recipients of social security benefits accountable, which in turn helps control the level of social security expenditure.

Originality/value – The current study extends our understanding of the functions of indirect government by providing an applied example of how the process of government works indirectly through government agencies and the abundant rules and regulations that underpin such bureaucracies.

Physiological responses of elite junior Australian Rules footballers during match-play

Australian Football (AF) is Australia's major football code. Despite research in other football codes, to date, no data has been published on the physiological responses of AF players during match play. Fifteen athletes (17.28 ± 0.76 yrs) participated in four pre-season matches, sanctioned by Australian Football League (AFL) Victoria, investigating Heart Rate (HR), Blood Lactate (BLa), Core Temperature (Tcore), and Hydration status. Match HR was measured continuously using HR monitors. BLa was measured via finger prick lancet at the end of each quarter of play. Tcore was measured by use of ingestible temperature sensor and measured wirelessly at the end of each quarter of play. Hydration status was measured using refractometry, measuring urine specific gravity, and body weight pre and post-match. Environmental conditions were measured continuously during matches. Results of HR responses showed a high exertion of players in the 85-95% maximum HR range. Elevated mean BLa levels, compared to rest, were observed in all players over the duration of the matches (p = 0.007). Mean Tcore rose 0.68 °C between start and end of matches. Mean USG increased between 0.008 g/ml (p = 0.001) with mean body weight decreasing 1.88 kg (p = 0.001). This study illustrates physiological responses in junior AF players playing in the heat as well as providing physiological data for consideration by AF coaching staff when developing specific training programs. Continued research should consider physiological measurements under varying environments, and at all playing levels of AF, to ascertain full physiological responses during AF matches.

Profile of position movement demands in elite junior Australian rules footballers

This study investigated the positional movement patterns in elite junior Australian Football (AF). Thirty players (17.1 ± 0.9 years) participating in this study were tracked over seven home games of the regular 2006 Victorian junior (Under 18) league season. Using lapsed-time video analysis, each position for an entire match was videotaped on three separate occasions over the course of the season. Data analysed included the number of individual efforts, duration and frequency of efforts; distance and percentage time for the classifications of standing, walking jogging, running and sprinting. Results showed that the midfield position travelled the greatest distance (4173 ± 238 m per quarter; p < 0.05; ES = .94) whilst the full forward/full back travelled the least (2605 ± 348 m per quarter, p < 0.05, ES = 1.21). For all positions, walking or jogging accounted for the greatest number of efforts (45-55%), conversely running and sprinting accounted for 5-13% of match efforts. The majority of efforts across all classifications were between 0-3.99 s. The data from this study provides further evidence that AF is an intermittent sport characterised by high intensity movements separated by low intensity movements at a ratio of one high intensity effort every 12-40 s. However, careful interpretation of the data is required when training junior AF players for specific positions, given the specific group studied.

Climate-related spatial and temporal variation in bill morphology over the past century in Australian parrots

Aim: Allen's rule posits that the appendages of endothermic organisms will be larger in warmer climates to allow for dumping of heat loads. Given a link between appendage size and climate, we tested the prediction that climate change has driven the evolution of larger bills in birds, resulting in measurable changes over the recent past. Location: Australia. Methods: We explored geographical and temporal variation in bill surface area of five Australian parrot species to determine whether individuals from warmer climates have larger bills, and whether there have been increases in bill surface area over time, consistent with climatic warming. Measurements were obtained from museum specimens dating from 1871 to 2008. These data were then related to geographical location, collection date and locality-specific climate data, in order to construct and compare models of spatio-temporal and climate-related variation in bill morphology. Results: There have been increases in bill surface area in mulga parrots (Psephotus varius), gang-gang cockatoos (Callocephalon fimbriatum), red-rumped parrots (Psephotus haematonotus) and male crimson rosellas (Platycercus elegans), equating to a c. 4-10% increase in bill surface area since 1871. Average maximum summer temperature in the 5 years prior to specimen collection also positively predicted bill surface area in mulga parrots, red-rumped parrots and crimson rosellas, consistent with Allen's rule. With the exception of red-rumped parrots, however, models with geographical location and year of collection were still better predictors of bill surface area than local climate at the date of collection. Main conclusions: Our analysis provides evidence that four species of parrot have exhibited adaptive change in bills over the past century potentially mitigating the thermal stress caused by climatic warming. Although consistent with the predicted effects of climate change, the temporal patterns we observe may have additional causes, however, such as changes in primary productivity, habitat or food availability.