Prediction of functional oucomes in stroke inpatients receiving rehabilitation

Background and Purpose: Early identification of predictive factors relevant to functional outcomes for stroke patients is important to the establishment of an effective continuing care program. The objective of this studywas to identify the predictive factors related to functional outcome at discharge after stroke rehabilitation therapy. Methods: 105 first-time stroke patients admitted to the inpatient rehabilitation department of a university-based medical center were recruited for this prospective study. The functional outcomes of the patients were assessed at admission and at discharge using the Functional Independence Measure (FIM). Severity of stroke was determined using the Canadian Neurological Scale (CNS). Age, gender, side of hemiplegia (SIDE), type of stroke (TYPE), onset to admission interval (OAI), and length of rehabilitation stay (LORS) were also included as predictor variables. Results: The mean (′SD) FIM score at discharge (76.6 ′ 26.4) correlated strongly (r = 0.78, p < 0.001) with the admission FIM score (56.3 ′ 24.1), moderately (r = 0.46, p < 0.001) with the admission CNS score (6.1 ′ 2.2), negatively (r = -0.38, p < 0.001) with age (63.2 ′ 12.3 years), negatively (r = -0.26, p = 0.009) with OAI (24.2 ′ 16.0 days), and negatively (r = -0.29, p = 0.002) with LORS (34.7 ′ 16.8 ays). Stepwise regression analyses indicated that admission FIM score, age, and admission CNS score were the stronge predictors of functional outcome and accounted for 66% of the total variation in discharge FIM total score. The admission FIM score was the best predictor and accounted for 61% of the variation. Conclusions: The findings of this study imply that the admission FIM scores for inpatients receiving stroke rehabilitation can be used to predict functional outcomes at discharge from hospital.

Validation and development of a clinical prediction rule in clinically suspected community-acquired pneumonia

To develop a mathematical model to predict the probability of having community-acquired pneumonia and to evaluate an already developed prediction rule that has not been validated in a clinical scenario.

Development and evaluation of a screening tool to identify people with diabetes at increased risk of medication problems relating to hypoglycaemia and medication non-adherence

Abstract Aims: To develop and evaluate a screening tool to identify people with diabetes at increased risk of medication problems relating to hypoglycaemia and medication non-adherence. Methods: A retrospective audit of attendances at a diabetes outpatient clinic at a public, teaching hospital over a 16-month period was conducted. Logistic regression was undertaken to examine risk factors associated with medication problems relating to hypoglycaemia and medication non-adherence and the most predictive set of factors comprise the Diabetes Medication Risk Screening Tool. Evaluating the tool involved assessing sensitivity and specificity, positive and negative predictive values, cut-off scores, inter-rater reliability, and content validity. Results: The Diabetes Medication Risk Screening Tool comprises seven predictive factors: age, living alone, English language, mental and behavioural problems, comorbidity index score, number of medications prescribed, and number of high-risk medications prescribed. The tool has 76.5% sensitivity, 59.5% specificity, and has a 65.1% positive predictive value, and a 71.8% negative predictive value. A score of 27 or more out of 62 was associated with high-risk of a medication problem. The inter-rater reliability of the tool was high (κ = 0.79, 95% CI 0.75 - 0.84) and the content validity index was 99.4%. Conclusion: The Diabetes Medication Risk Screening Tool has good psychometric properties and can proactively identify people with diabetes at greatest risk of medication problems relating to hypoglycaemia and medication non-adherence.

Towards identifying factors underlying readiness for online learning: an exploratory study

To test the potential value of McVay's (2000) Readiness for Online Learning questionnaire for research and practice, the instrument was administered to 107 undergraduate university students drawn from a range of courses in the United States and Australia. The questionnaire was subjected to a reliability analysis and a factor analysis. The instrument fared well in the reliability analysis, and yielded a two-factor structure that was readily interpretable in a framework of existing theory and research. Factors identified were "Comfort with e-learning" and "Self-management of learning." It is suggested that the instrument is useful for both research and practice, but would be enhanced through further work on 5 of the 13 items. Additionally, further work is required to establish predictive validity.

Evaluation of the robustness of predictive yield models based on catchment characteristics using GIS for reservoir fisheries in Sri Lanka

Land-use patterns in the catchment areas of Sri Lankan reservoirs, which were quantified using Geographical Information Systems (GIS), were used to develop quantitative models for yield prediction. The validity of these models was evaluated through the application to five reservoirs that were not used in the development of the models, and by comparing with the actual fish yield data of these reservoirs collected by an independent body. The robustness of the predictive models developed was tested by principal component analysis (PCA) on limnological characteristics, land-use patterns of the catchments and fish yields. The predicted fish yields in five Sri Lankan reservoirs, using the empirical models based on the ratios of forest cover and/or shrub cover to reservoir capacity or reservoir area were in close agreement with the observed fish yields. The scores of PCA ordination of productivity-related limnological parameters and those of land-use patterns were linearly related to fish yields. The relationship between the PCA scores of limnological characteristics and land-use types had the appropriate algebraic form, which substantiates the influence of the limnological factors and land-use types on reservoir fish yields. It is suggested that the relatively high predictive power of the models developed on the basis of GIS methodologies can be used for more accurate assessment of reservoir fisheries. The study supports the importance and the need for an integrated management strategy for the whole watershed to enhance fish yields.

Low back pain and disability in community-based women : prevalence and association factors

Objective: Although low back pain is characterized by both pain and disability, there is a paucity of studies that have concurrently examined risk factors for these features in community-dwelling women. We aimed to investigate the prevalence and identify factors associated with both back pain and disability.

Design: A questionnaire was mailed to 542 women from a community-based research database. Detailed demographic data were collected, including participants' menopause, relationship, and employment status. Point and period prevalence estimates for back pain were derived. Participants were classified based on pain intensity and disability scores calculated from the Chronic Pain Grade Questionnaire, and factors associated with high levels of pain and disability were examined.

Results: A total of 506 (93.4%) women completed the questionnaire. More than 90% of participants had experienced low back pain, with 75.1% and 22.5% reporting pain in the past 12 months and currently, respectively. Seven percent of women reported a high level of disability and 16% reported high-intensity pain. Women with higher levels of disability were more likely to have a higher body mass index and to have pain currently, whereas those with greater pain intensity were more likely to be younger, have a higher body mass index, not be employed outside the home, drink alcohol, and have current pain.

Conclusions: Low back pain is a common problem for community-based women. A high body mass index and current pain were factors independently associated with both high pain intensity and disability. Longitudinal investigation is required to determine the predictive nature of these factors and their potential role in preventing pain and disability.

Risk and protective factors for adolescent substance use in Washington State, the United States and Victoria, Australia : a longitudinal study

Purpose
To compare the levels of risk and protective factors and the predictive influence of these factors on alcohol, tobacco, and cannabis use over a 12-month follow-up period in Washington State in the United States and in Victoria, Australia.

Method
The study involved a longitudinal school-based survey of students drawn as a two-stage cluster sample recruited through schools, and administered in the years 2002 and 2003 in both states. The study used statewide representative samples of students in the seventh and ninth grades (n = 3,876) in Washington State and Victoria.

Results
Washington State students, relative to Victorian students, had higher rates of cannabis use but lower rates of alcohol and tobacco use at time 1. Levels of risk and protective factors showed few but important differences that contribute to the explanation of differences in substance use; Washington State students, relative to Victorian students, reported higher religiosity (odds ratio, .96 vs. .79) and availability of handguns (odds ratio, 1.23 vs. 1.18), but less favorable peer, community, and parental attitudes to substance use. The associations with substance use at follow-up are generally comparable, but in many instances were weaker in Washington State.

Conclusions
Levels of risk and protective factors and their associations with substance use at follow-up were mostly similar in the two states. Further high-quality longitudinal studies to establish invariance in the relations between risk and protective factors and substance use in adolescence across diverse countries are warranted.

A longitudinal study of the effect of psychosocial factors on exclusive breastfeeding duration

Objective
to examine the effect of psychosocial factors on exclusive breastfeeding duration to six months postpartum

Design
longitudinal, prospective questionnaire based study.

Setting
participants were recruited from a publically funded antenatal clinic located in the western metropolitan region of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia and asked to complete questionnaires at three time points; 32 weeks pregnancy, two months postpartum and six months postpartum.

Participants
the participants were 125 pregnant women aged 22–44 years.

Measurements and findings
psychosocial variables such as breastfeeding self-efficacy, body attitude, psychological adjustment, attitude towards pregnancy, intention, confidence and motivation to exclusively breastfeed and importance of exclusive breastfeeding were assessed using a range of psychometrically validated tools. Exclusive breastfeeding behaviour up to six months postpartum was also measured. At 32 weeks gestation a woman׳s confidence to achieve exclusive breastfeeding was a direct predictor of exclusive breastfeeding duration to six months postpartum. At two months postpartum, psychological adjustment and breastfeeding self-efficacy were predictive of exclusive breastfeeding duration. Finally, at six months postpartum, psychological adjustment, breastfeeding self-efficacy, confidence to maintain and feeling fat were directly predictive of exclusive breastfeeding duration.

Demographic risk factors for alcohol-related aggression in and around licensed venues

AIMS: Few studies have examined the role of gender and both area-level and individual socio-economic status (SES) as independent predictors of alcohol-related aggression (ARA) in and around licensed venues. METHODS: The aim of the present study was to investigate the relationship between gender, area-level SES and individual SES (operationalised as occupational category) and ARA in and around licensed venues. The sample comprised 697 men and 649 women aged 16-47, who completed a patron intercept survey as part of a larger study assessing trends in harm and stakeholders' views surrounding local community level interventions in dealing with alcohol-related problems in the night-time economy. RESULTS: Binary logistic regression analyses showed that age, gender, occupational category, area-level SES and level of intoxication at time of interview were all significant predictors of involvement in ARA. Being male doubled the odds of involvement in ARA, while age was a protective factor. Blue collar workers had more than double the odds of ARA involvement of professionals, while those living in the most socio-economically disadvantaged areas were over twice as likely to report experiencing ARA compared to those living in the most advantaged areas. However, assessment of the predictive model by gender revealed that effects of age, occupational category and area-level SES were restricted to male participants, with greater intoxication no longer predictive. CONCLUSIONS: ARA among patrons was significantly more likely to occur among men, those in blue collar occupations, and individuals living in low SES areas, suggesting both individual and area-level disadvantage may play a role in ARA.

Improving risk assessment in schizophrenia: epidemiological investigation of criminal history factors

Background : Violence risk assessment in schizophrenia relies heavily on criminal history factors.

Aims : To investigate which criminal history factors are most strongly associated with violent crime in schizophrenia.

Method : A total of 13 806 individuals (8891 men and 4915 women) with two or more hospital admissions for schizophrenia were followed up for violent convictions. Multivariate hazard ratios for 15 criminal history factors included in different risk assessment tools were calculated. The incremental predictive validity of these factors was estimated using tests of discrimination, calibration and reclassification.

Results : Over a mean follow-up of 12.0 years, 17.3% of men (n = 1535) and 5.7% of women (n = 281) were convicted of a violent offence. Criminal history factors most strongly associated with subsequent violence for both men and women were a previous conviction for a violent offence; for assault, illegal threats and/or intimidation; and imprisonment. However, only a previous conviction for a violent offence was associated with incremental predictive validity in both genders following adjustment for young age and comorbid substance use disorder.

Conclusions : Clinical and actuarial approaches to assess violence risk can be improved if included risk factors are tested using multiple measures of performance.

A longitudinal study of risk and protective factors associated with successful transition to secondary school in youth with ADHD: prospective cohort study protocol

BACKGROUND: Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) has a significant impact on child and adolescent development, especially in relation to school functioning and academic outcomes. Despite the transition to high school being a potentially critical period for children with ADHD, most research in this period has focused on academic outcomes. This study aims to extend previous research by describing academic, school engagement, behaviour and social-emotional outcomes for young people with ADHD in the first and third years of high school and to identify risk and protective factors predictive of differing outcomes across these four domains. METHODS AND DESIGN: The Moving Up study is a longitudinal, prospective cohort study of children with ADHD as they transition and adjust to high school (age 12-15 years). Data are collected through direct assessment and child, parent and teacher surveys. The primary outcome is academic achievement, obtained by linking to standardised test results. Secondary outcomes include measures of behaviour, ADHD symptoms, school engagement (attitudes and attendance), and social and emotional functioning, including depressive symptoms. The mean performance of the study cohort on each outcome measure will be compared to the population mean for same aged children, using t-tests. Risk and protective factors to be examined using multiple regression include a child, family and school factors know to impact academic and school functioning. DISCUSSION: The Moving up study is the first Australian study prospectively designed to measure a broad range of student outcomes for children with ADHD during the high school transition period. Examining both current (cross sectional) and earlier childhood (longitudinal) factors gives us the potential to learn more about risk and protective factors associated with school functioning in young people with ADHD. The richness and depth of this information could lead to more targeted and effective interventions that may alter academic and wellbeing trajectories for young people at risk of poor outcomes. The study is approved by The Royal Children's Hospital Melbourne Human Research Ethics Committee (33206). Findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals and conference presentations.

Factors contributing to depressive mood states in everyday life: A systematic review

BACKGROUND: Although accumulated evidence suggests that fluctuations in depressed mood are common among individuals with depression, and may be associated with onset, duration, and severity of illness, a systematic appraisal of putative predictors of depressed mood is lacking. METHODS: A systematic search for relevant studies in the literature was conducted using PsycInfo and PubMed databases via EbscoHost in February 2016. The search was limited to articles using the experience sampling method, an approach suitable for capturing in situ fluctuations in mood states. RESULTS: Forty-two studies met inclusion criteria for the review, from which three key risk factors (poor sleep, stress, and significant life events) and two protective factors (physical activity and quality of social interactions) were identified. The majority of papers supported concurrent and lagged associations between these putative protective/risk factors and depressed mood. LIMITATIONS: Despite support for each of the proposed protective/risk factors, few studies evaluated multiple factors in the same study. Moreover, the time course for the effects of these predictors on depressed mood remains largely unknown. CONCLUSIONS: The present review identified several putative risk and protective factors for depressed mood. A review of the literature suggests that poor sleep, negative social interactions, and stressful negative events may temporally precede spikes in depressed mood. In contrast, exercise and positive social interactions have been shown to predict subsequent declines in depressed mood. However, the lack of multivariate models in which the unique contributions of various predictors could be evaluated means that the current state of knowledge prevents firm conclusions about which factors are most predictive of depressed mood. More complex modeling of these effects is necessary in order to provide insights useful for clinical treatment in daily life of the depressed mood component of depressive disorders.

On the estimation and testing of predictive panel regressions

Hjalmarsson (2010) considers an OLS-based estimator of predictive panel regressions that is argued to be mixed normal under very general conditions. In a recent paper, Westerlund et al. (2016) show that while consistent, the estimator is generally not mixed normal, which invalidates standard normal and chi-squared inference. The purpose of the present paper is to study the consequences of this theoretical result in small samples, which is done using both simulated and real data.