Generality is predictive of prediction accuracy

During knowledge acquisition multiple alternative potential rules all appear equally credible. This paper addresses the dearth of formal analysis about how to select between such alternatives. It presents two hypotheses about the expected impact of selecting between classification rules of differing levels of generality in the absence of other evidence about their likely relative performance on unseen data. It is argued that the accuracy on unseen data of the more general rule will tend to be closer to that of a default rule for the class than will that of the more specific rule. It is also argued that in comparison to the more general rule, the accuracy of the more specific rule on unseen cases will tend to be closer to the accuracy obtained on training data. Experimental evidence is provided in support of these hypotheses. We argue that these hypotheses can be of use in selecting between rules in order to achieve specific knowledge acquisition objectives.

Aggregation of Pi-based forecast to enhance prediction accuracy

In contrast to point forecast, prediction interval-based neural network offers itself as an effective tool to quantify the uncertainty and disturbances that associated with process data. However, single best neural network (NN) does not always guarantee to predict better quality of forecast for different data sets or a whole range of data set. Literature reported that ensemble of NNs using forecast combination produces stable and consistence forecast than single best NN. In this work, a NNs ensemble procedure is introduced to construct better quality of Pis. Weighted averaging forecasts combination mechanism is employed to combine the Pi-based forecast. As the key contribution of this paper, a new Pi-based cost function is proposed to optimize the individual weights for NN in combination process. An optimization algorithm, named simulated annealing (SA) is used to minimize the PI-based cost function. Finally, the proposed method is examined in two different case studies and compared the results with the individual best NNs and available simple averaging Pis aggregating method. Simulation results demonstrated that the proposed method improved the quality of Pis than individual best NNs and simple averaging ensemble method.

Improvement of the prediction accuracy and efficiency of hot strength of austenitic steels with optimised ANN training schemes

The hot strength of austenitic steels of different carbon contents was modelled using an artificial neural network (ANN) model with optimum training data. As training data employed in a traditional neural network model were randomly selected from experimental data, they were not representative and the prediction accuracy and efficiency were therefore significantly affected. In this work, only representatively experimental data were used for training and during the procedure, one tenth of the training data extracted from experiment were used for testing the training model and terminating the modelling. The effects of the carbon con tent on flow stress, peak strains and peak stresses observed from the experiment for both training and test data were accurately represented with the ANN scheme reported in this work.

Prediction of stress-strain behaviors in steels using an integrated constitutive, FEM and ANN model

Austenitic steels with a carbon content of 0.0037 to 0.79 wt% C are torsion tested and modeled using a physically based constitutive model and an Integrated Phenomenological and Artificial neural Network (IPANN) model. The prediction of both the constitutive and IPANN models on steel 0.017 wt% C is then evaluated using a finite element (FEM) code ABAQUS with different reduction in the thickness after rolling through one roll stand. It is found that during the rolling process, the prediction accuracy of the reaction force from FEM simulation for both constitutive and IPANN models depends on the strain achieved (average reduction in thickness). By integrating FEM into IPANN model and introducing the product of strain and stress as an input of the ANN model, the accuracy of this integrated FEM and IPANN model is higher than either the constitutive or IPANN model.

User mobility prediction in hybrid and ad hoc wireless networks

Next Generation Networks will employ hybrid network architectures using both cellular and ad hoc networking concepts. The vision of real-time
multimedia services requires that mobility management be addressed in a proactive manner. If the user movements can be predicted accurately in a
hybrid network environment then handoff/cluster change, resource reservation and context transfer procedures can be efficiently completed as required by node mobility. In this work we propose a sectorized ad hoc mobility prediction scheme for cluster change prediction. Simulation study of the scheme shows it to be efficient in terms of prediction accuracy and prediction related control overhead despite randomness in user movement.

A review on current work in mobility prediction for wireless networks

The vision of next generation networks (4G & beyond) is to make possible seamless mobility across heterogeneous networks and to support real-time multimedia services. This would require intra/inter-domain handovers and service reconfiguration procedures to be completed with minimum latency. Mobility Prediction has been identified as a key abettor to this goal. The increasing ease of coupling between the mobile user and the network requires that a mobility prediction scheme that is to be deployed in next generation networks be capable of high levels of prediction accuracy despite randomness in user movement. In this work we have presented a survey on mobility prediction schemes that have been proposed for wireless networks. The results of our simulation study focused on the robustness of different schemes to randomness in user movement are also presented.

Prediction of wool knitwear pilling propensity using support vector machines

The propensity of wool knitwear to form entangled fiber balls, known as pills, on the surface is affected by a large number of factors. This study examines, for the first time, the application of the support vector machine (SVM) data mining tool to the pilling propensity prediction of wool knitwear. The results indicate that by using the binary classification method and the radial basis function (RBF) kernel function, the SVM is able to give high pilling propensity prediction accuracy for wool knitwear without data over-fitting. The study also found that the number of records available for each pill rating greatly affects the learning and prediction capability of SVM models.

Semantic and layered protein function prediction from PPI networks

Background The past few years have seen a rapid development in novel high-throughput technologies that have created large-scale data on protein-protein interactions (PPI) across human and most model species. This data is commonly represented as networks, with nodes representing proteins and edges representing the PPIs. A fundamental challenge to bioinformatics is how to interpret this wealth of data to elucidate the interaction of patterns and the biological characteristics of the proteins. One significant purpose of this interpretation is to predict unknown protein functions. Although many approaches have been proposed in recent years, the challenge still remains how to reasonably and precisely measure the functional similarities between proteins to improve the prediction effectiveness.

Results We used a Semantic and Layered Protein Function Prediction (SLPFP) framework to more effectively predict unknown protein functions at different functional levels. The framework relies on a new protein similarity measurement and a clustering-based protein function prediction algorithm. The new protein similarity measurement incorporates the topological structure of the PPI network, as well as the protein's semantic information in terms of known protein functions at different functional layers. Experiments on real PPI datasets were conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed framework in predicting unknown protein functions.

Conclusion The proposed framework has a higher prediction accuracy compared with other similar approaches. The prediction results are stable even for a large number of proteins. Furthermore, the framework is able to predict unknown functions at different functional layers within the Munich Information Center for Protein Sequence (MIPS) hierarchical functional scheme. The experimental results demonstrated that the new protein similarity measurement reflects more reasonably and precisely relationships between proteins.

Indoor location prediction using multiple wireless received signal strengths

This paper presents a framework for indoor location prediction system using multiple wireless signals available freely in public or office spaces. We first propose an abstract architectural design for the system, outlining its key components and their functionalities. Different from existing works, such as robot indoor localization which requires as precise localization as possible, our work focuses on a higher grain: location prediction. Such a problem has a great implication in context-aware systems such as indoor navigation or smart self-managed mobile devices (e.g., battery management). Central to these systems is an effective method to perform location prediction under different constraints such as dealing with multiple wireless sources, effects of human body heats or mobility of the users. To this end, the second part of this pa- per presents a comparative and comprehensive study on different choices for modeling signals strengths and prediction methods under different condition settings. The results show that with simple, but effective modeling method, almost perfect prediction accuracy can be achieved in the static environment, and up to 85% in the presence of human movements. Finally, adopting the proposed framework we outline a fully developed system, named Marauder, that support user interface interaction and real-time voice-enabled location prediction.

Hybrid prediction method for solar power using different computational intelligence algorithms

Computational Intelligence (CI) holds the key to the development of smart grid to overcome the challenges of planning and optimization through accurate prediction of Renewable Energy Sources (RES). This paper presents an architectural framework for the construction of hybrid intelligent predictor for solar power. This research investigates the applicabil- ity of heterogeneous regression algorithms for 6 hour ahead solar power availability forecasting using historical data from Rockhampton, Australia. Real life solar radiation data is collected across six years with hourly resolution from 2005 to 2010. We observe that the hybrid prediction method is suitable for a reliable smart grid energy management. Prediction reliability of the proposed hybrid prediction method is carried out in terms of prediction error performance based on statistical and graphical methods. The experimental results show that the proposed hybrid method achieved acceptable prediction accuracy. This potential hybrid model is applicable as a local predictor for any proposed hybrid method in real life application for 6 hours in advance prediction to ensure constant solar power supply in the smart grid operation.

Patient admission prediction using a pruned fuzzy min–max neural network with rule extraction

A useful patient admission prediction model that helps the emergency department of a hospital admit patients efficiently is of great importance. It not only improves the care quality provided by the emergency department but also reduces waiting time of patients. This paper proposes an automatic prediction method for patient admission based on a fuzzy min–max neural network (FMM) with rules extraction. The FMM neural network forms a set of hyperboxes by learning through data samples, and the learned knowledge is used for prediction. In addition to providing predictions, decision rules are extracted from the FMM hyperboxes to provide an explanation for each prediction. In order to simplify the structure of FMM and the decision rules, an optimization method that simultaneously maximizes prediction accuracy and minimizes the number of FMM hyperboxes is proposed. Specifically, a genetic algorithm is formulated to find the optimal configuration of the decision rules. The experimental results using a large data set consisting of 450740 real patient records reveal that the proposed method achieves comparable or even better prediction accuracy than state-of-the-art classifiers with the additional ability to extract a set of explanatory rules to justify its predictions.

BacHbpred: support vector machine methods for the prediction of bacterial hemoglobin-like proteins

The recent upsurge in microbial genome data has revealed that hemoglobin-like (HbL) proteins may be widely distributed among bacteria and that some organisms may carry more than one HbL encoding gene. However, the discovery of HbL proteins has been limited to a small number of bacteria only. This study describes the prediction of HbL proteins and their domain classification using a machine learning approach. Support vector machine (SVM) models were developed for predicting HbL proteins based upon amino acid composition (AC), dipeptide composition (DC), hybrid method (AC + DC), and position specific scoring matrix (PSSM). In addition, we introduce for the first time a new prediction method based on max to min amino acid residue (MM) profiles. The average accuracy, standard deviation (SD), false positive rate (FPR), confusion matrix, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) were analyzed. We also compared the performance of our proposed models in homology detection databases. The performance of the different approaches was estimated using fivefold cross-validation techniques. Prediction accuracy was further investigated through confusion matrix and ROC curve analysis. All experimental results indicate that the proposed BacHbpred can be a perspective predictor for determination of HbL related proteins. BacHbpred, a web tool, has been developed for HbL prediction.

Toxicity prediction in cancer using multiple instance learning in a multi-task framework

Treatments of cancer cause severe side effects called toxicities. Reduction of such effects is crucial in cancer care. To impact care, we need to predict toxicities at fortnightly intervals. This toxicity data differs from traditional time series data as toxicities can be caused by one treatment on a given day alone, and thus it is necessary to consider the effect of the singular data vector causing toxicity. We model the data before prediction points using the multiple instance learning, where each bag is composed of multiple instances associated with daily treatments and patient-specific attributes, such as chemotherapy, radiotherapy, age and cancer types. We then formulate a Bayesian multi-task framework to enhance toxicity prediction at each prediction point. The use of the prior allows factors to be shared across task predictors. Our proposed method simultaneously captures the heterogeneity of daily treatments and performs toxicity prediction at different prediction points. Our method was evaluated on a real-word dataset of more than 2000 cancer patients and had achieved a better prediction accuracy in terms of AUC than the state-of-art baselines.

Node-coupling clustering approaches for link prediction

Due to the potential important information in real world networks, link prediction has become an interesting focus of different branches of science. Nevertheless, in "big data" era, link prediction faces significant challenges, such as how to predict the massive data efficiently and accurately. In this paper, we propose two novel node-coupling clustering approaches and their extensions for link prediction, which combine the coupling degrees of the common neighbor nodes of a predicted node-pair with cluster geometries of nodes. We then present an experimental evaluation to compare the prediction accuracy and effectiveness between our approaches and the representative existing methods on two synthetic datasets and six real world datasets. The experimental results show our approaches outperform the existing methods.

An epidemic model based temporal violation prediction strategy for large batch of parallel business cloud workflows

Temporal violations often take place during the running of large batch of parallel business cloud workflow, which have a serious impact on the on-time completion of massive concurrent user requests. Existing studies have shown that local temporal violations (namely the delays of workflow activities) occurring during cloud workflow execution are the fundamental causes for failed on-time completion. Therefore, accurate prediction of temporal violations is a very important yet challenging task for business cloud workflows. In this paper, based on an epidemic model, a novel temporal violation prediction strategy is proposed to estimate the number of local temporal violations and the number of violations that must be handled so as to achieve a certain on-time completion rate before the execution of workflows. The prediction result can be served as an important reference for temporal violation prevention and handling strategies such as static resource reservation and dynamic provision. Specifically, we first analyze the queuing process of the parallel workflow activities, then we predict the number of potential temporal violations based on a novel temporal violation transmission model inspired by an epidemic model. Comprehensive experimental results demonstrate that our strategy can achieve very high prediction accuracy under different situations.