Estimating population size of the black-eared miner, with an assessment of landscape-scale habitat requirements

The decline of the Black-eared Miner Manorina melanotis has been caused primarily by habitat degradation and vegetation clearance. To better direct conservation actions for this species there was a need to assess habitat requirements on a regional-scale and to estimate the population size using quantitative methods. We used vegetation mapping and the current distribution of the Black-eared Miner to determine regional-scale habitat requirements. These findings were combined with the results of distance sampling to provide population estimates. The species is restricted to large tracts of intact mallee in the Murray Mallee of southeastern Australia that have not been burnt for at least 45 years. The density· of Black-eared Miners is highest in areas that are dominated by mallee- Triodia associations and have not been intensively grazed. The Bookmark Biosphere Reserve supports an estimated 501 (270-927, 95% CI) colonies, containing 3758 (2026-6954) phenotypically pure Black-eared Miners, 2255 (1 215-4170) hybrids and small numbers of Yellow-throated Miners Manorina flavigula. However, the effective population size is considerably smaller (390 Black-eared Miners '(21 0-726) and 234 hybrids (126-433)), due to a skewed adult sex ratio (1 female: 1.81 males) and complex social organization. A smaller population also persists in the Murray Sunset National Park containing 53 (32-85) Black-eared Miner/hybrid colonies. Both populations face a high risk of extinction from large-scale wildfire. The endangered status of the species under IUCN criteria remains warranted.

Factors influencing population dynamics in island and mainland populations of the Swamp Antechinus (Antechinus minimus)

Simultaneously analysing demographic processes of small mammals living in different ecological contexts may help to understand mechanisms that influence the growth and decline of these populations. The size and demography of swamp antechinus (Antechinus minimus) populations located in a coastal mainland habitat and on a small offshore island in south-eastern Australia were investigated. Large demographic differences occurred between the two ecosystems, with the island population density often 100 times greater than that on the mainland. The swamp antechinus in the mainland habitat was influenced by extrinsic climatic forces, with juvenile recruitment, individual body mass and overall population size being affected by rainfall, a factor likely to influence food availability for the species. However, the island population did not appear to be affected by drought to the same degree where allochthonous marine nutrient inputs may have offset any drought-induced reduction in primary production. Significantly greater juvenile recruitment in the island habitats combined with restricted emigration and potentially reduced predation and interspecific competition are likely to be responsible for the high population densities on the island. Although island populations appear robust, future conservation efforts should focus on mainland populations given the genetic deficiencies in the island populations.

Population genetic structure, gene flow and sex-biased dispersal in frillneck lizards (Chlamydosaurus kingii)

By using both mitochondrial and nuclear multiloci markers, we explored population genetic structure, gene flow and sex-specific dispersal of frillneck lizards (Chlamydosaurus kingii) sampled at three locations, separated by 10 to 50 km, in a homogenous savannah woodland in tropical Australia. Apart from a recombinant lizard, the mitochondrial analyses revealed two nonoverlapping haplotypes/populations, while the nuclear markers showed that the frillneck lizards represented three separate clusters/populations. Due to the small population size of the mtDNA, fixation may occur via founder effects and/or drift. We therefore suggest that either of these two processes, or a combination of the two, are the most likely causes of the discordant results obtained from the mitochondrial and the nuclear markers. In contrast to the nonoverlapping mitochondrial haplotypes, in 12 out of 74 lizards, mixed nuclear genotypes were observed, hence revealing a limited nuclear gene flow. Although gene flow should ultimately result in a blending of the populations, we propose that the distinct nuclear population structure is maintained by frequent fires resulting in local bottlenecks, and concomitant spatial separation of the frillneck lizard populations. Limited mark-recapture data and the difference in distribution of the mitochondrial and nuclear markers suggest that the mixed nuclear genotypes were caused by juvenile male-biased dispersal.

Working with local government to research strategic development within regional Victoria

Changes in population size and composition, forecasted for regional Victorian cities, have the potential to significantly impact upon their urban environments. The Built Environment Research Group (BERG) at Deakin
University, in collaboration with The Centre for Sustainable Regional Communities at La Trobe University, is currently working with the City of Greater Bendigo and the City of Warrnambool to research this situation. The following paper introduces the work being undertaken to develop strategies for promoting an integrated approach to regional development, and  addresses the administrative context supporting current decision-making processes within local government.

Mortality rates, prevalence of malnutrition, and prevalence of lost pregnancies among the drought-ravaged population of Tete province Mozambique

Background: Tete Province, Mozambique has experienced chronic food insecurity and a dramatic fall in livestock numbers due to the cyclic problems characterized by the floods in 2000 and severe droughts in 2002 and 2003. The Province has been a beneficiary of emergency relief programs, which have assisted >22% of the population. However, these programs were not based on sound epidemiological data, and they have not established baseline data against which to assess the impact of the programs. Objective: The objective of this study was to document mortality rates, causes of death, the prevalence of malnutrition, and the prevalence of lost pregnancies after 2.5 years of humanitarian response to the crisis. Methods: A two-stage, 30-cluster household survey was conducted in the Cahora Bassa and Changara districts from 22 October to 08 November 2004. A total of 838 households were surveyed, with a population size of 4,688 people. Results: Anthropometric data were collected among children 6-59 months of age. In addition, crude mortality rates (CMRs), under five mortality rates (U5MRs), causes of deaths, and prevalence of lost pregnancies were determined among the sample population. The prevalence of malnutrition was 8.0% (95% confidence interval (CI)=6.2-9.8%) for acute malnutrition, 26.9% (95% CI=24.0-29.9%) for being underweight, and 37.0% (95% CI=33.8-40.2%) for chronic malnutrition. Boys were more likely to be underweight than were girls (odds ratio (OR)=1.34; 95% CI=1.00, 1.82; p<0.05) after controlling for age, household size, and food aid beneficiary status. Similarly, children 30-59 months of age were significantly less likely to suffer from acute malnutrition (OR=0.45; 95% CI=0.26, 0.79; p<0.01) and less likely to be underweight (OR=0.37; 95% CI=0.27, 0.51; p<0.01) than children 6-29 months of age, after adjusting for the other, aforementioned factors. The proportion of lost pregnancies was estimated at 7.7% (95% CI=4.5-11.0%). A total of 215 deaths were reported during the year preceding the survey. Thirty-nine (18.1%) children <5 years of age died. The CMR was 1.23/10 000/day (95% CI=1.08-1.38), and an U5MR was 1.03/10 000/day (95% CI=0.71-1.35). Diarrheal diseases, malaria, tuberculosis, and human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) accounted for more than two-thirds of all deaths. Conclusions: The observed CMR in Tete Province, Mozambique is three times higher than the baseline rate for sub-Saharan Africa and 1.4 times higher than the CMR cut-off point used to define excess mortality in emergencies. The current humanitarian response in Tete Province would benefit from an improved alignment of food aid programming in conjunction with diarrheal disease control, HIV/AIDS, and malaria prevention and treatment programs. The impact of the food programs would be improved if mutually acceptable food aid programme objectives, verifiable indicators relevant to each objective, and beneficiary targets and selection criteria are developed. Periodic re-assessments and evaluations of the impact of the program and evidenced-based decision-making urgently are needed to avert a chronic dependency on food aid.

Time-to-Collision (TTC) judgements with offsize objects show that Tau needs to be intergrated with familiar size to explain TTC performance

Observers judged TTC with computer-generated displays simulating an approaching object in three familiar-size conditions:

(i) Real-size (smaller, larger objects depicted as tennis, soccer balls respectively).
(ii) Off-size (smaller, larger objects depicted as soccer, tennis balls respectively).
(iii) Ambiguous-size (smaller, larger objects depicted as texture-less black balls of different size).

Displays simulated objects approaching observersí viewpoint from 24.96 m, and disappearing at 5.76 m. Manipulation of approach velocities (4.8-19.2 msec-1) produced viewing times from 1.0 to 4.0 sec, and delays between object disappearance and tau-based TTC ranging from 0.3 to 1.2 sec. Motion characteristics of smaller and larger objects in the three familiar-size conditions simulated those of approaching real-sized tennis and soccer balls respectively; that is, for each approach velocity, tau‚-based TTC was the same across the three conditions for smaller and larger objects.

Results showed that, consistent with the proposition of tau-determined TTC, TTC estimates in the real-size condition were uninfluenced by object size. This is contrary to previous reports that TTC for larger objects is underestimated relative to TTC for smaller objects. However, such size-dependent TTC differences were found in the ambiguous-size condition, with even larger differences in the off-size condition; TTCs for the ëlargerí tennis ball were much less than TTCs to the ësmallerí soccer ball compared to corresponding TTCs in the ambiguous-size condition. These results are problematic for the proposition that tau solely determines TTC. We discuss the role of perceptual learning in resolving this problem.

Inbreeding and testicular abnormalities in a bottlenecked population of koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus)

Habitat destruction and fragmentation, interactions with introduced species or the relocation of animals to form new populations for conservation purposes may result in a multiplication of population bottlenecks. Examples are the translocations of koalas to French Island and its derivative Kangaroo Island population, with both populations established as insurance policies against koala extinction. In terms of population size, these conservation programs were success stories. However, the genetic story could be different. We conducted a genetic investigation of French and Kangaroo Island koalas by using 15 microsatellite markers, 11 of which are described here for the first time. The results confirm very low genetic diversity. French Island koalas have 3.8 alleles per locus and Kangaroo Island koalas 2.4. The present study found a 19% incidence of testicular abnormality in kangaroo Island animals. Internal relatedness, an individual inbreeding coefficient, was not significantly different in koalas with testicular abnormalities from that in other males, suggesting the condition is not related to recent inbreeding. It could instead result from an unfortunate selection of founder individuals carrying alleles for testicular abnormalities, followed by a subsequent increase in these alleles’ frequencies through genetic drift and small population-related inefficiency of selection. Given the low diversity and possible high prevalence of deleterious alleles, the genetic viability of the population remains uncertain, despite its exponential growth so far. This stands as a warning to other introductions for conservation reasons.

Continued population recovery by Australian fur seals

Australian fur seals (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus) are conspicuous, top-level predators in coastal waters of south-eastern Australia that were over-harvested during the 1800s and have had a delayed recovery. A previous species-wide estimate of live pups in 2002 recorded a near-doubling of annual pup production and a 5% annual growth rate since the 1980s. To determine if pup production increased after 2002, we estimated live pup numbers in 2007. Pups were recorded at 20 locations: 10 previously known colonies, three newly recognised colonies and seven haul-out sites where pups are occasionally born. Two colonies adjacent to the Victorian coast accounted for 51% of live pups estimated: Seal Rocks (5660 pups, 25.9%) and Lady Julia Percy Island (5574 pups, 25.5%). Although some colonies were up and some were down in pup numbers, the 2007 total of 21 882±187 (s.e.) live pups did not differ significantly from a recalculated estimate of 21 545±184 in 2002, suggesting little change to overall population size. However, the colonisation of three new sites between 2002 and 2007 indicates population recovery has continued.

Densities of individually marked migrants away from the marking site to estimate population sizes : a test with three wader populations

Capsule Population estimates based on the mark–resighting method can be a useful alternative to population-wide counts.

Aims To investigate whether the mark–resighting method can be used as an alternative to counts to estimate the size of wader populations.

Methods Individual colour-marking and subsequent resightings allowed accurate estimates of annual survival for three populations of waders, on which basis we could estimate the actual number of marked birds alive. Densities of marked birds were determined on sites away (2000–4300 km) from the ringing locations expecting marked birds to be randomly distributed among non-marked conspecifics. Population sizes are estimated by combining these densities with the number of marked birds alive.

Results We found indications that the distribution of marked birds was indeed random in the locations away from the site of marking. The estimated population size of Red Knot Calidris canutus canutus was in accordance with the most recent estimates based on counts. Our estimate of the Calidris c. islandica population was somewhat lower, and that of the Bar-tailed Godwit Limosa lapponica taymyrensis population was considerably lower than the latest estimates based on counts.

Conclusion Population estimates based on the mark–resighting method can be a useful alternative for, or addition to, population-wide counts, as long as the assumption of random distribution of marked birds at the reading sites is taken into account. We conclude that the Afro-Siberian Bar-tailed Godwit population has recently decreased in size or has been substantially overestimated during the counts.

Fine-scale effects of habitat loss and fragmentation despite large-scale gene flow for some regionally declining woodland bird species

Habitat loss and associated fragmentation effects are well-recognised threats to biodiversity. Loss of functional connectivity (mobility, gene flow and demographic continuity) could result in population decline in altered habitat, because smaller, isolated populations are more vulnerable to extinction. We tested whether substantial habitat reduction plus fragmentation is associated with reduced gene flow in three 'decliner' woodland-dependent bird species (eastern yellow robin, weebill and spotted pardalote) identified in earlier work to have declined disproportionately in heavily fragmented landscapes in the Box-Ironbark forest region in north-central Victoria, Australia. For these three decliners, and one 'tolerant' species (striated pardalote), we compared patterns of genetic diversity, relatedness, effective population size, sex-ratios and genic (allele frequency) differentiation among landscapes of different total tree cover, identified population subdivision at the regional scale, and explored fine-scale genotypic (individual-based genetic signature) structure. Unexpectedly high genetic connectivity across the study region was detected for 'decliner' and 'tolerant' species. Power analysis simulations suggest that moderate reductions in gene flow should have been detectable. However, there was evidence of local negative effects of reduced habitat extent and structural connectivity: slightly lower effective population sizes, lower genetic diversity, higher within-site relatedness and altered sex-ratios (for weebill and eastern yellow robin) in 10 x 10 km 'landscapes' with low vegetation cover. We conclude that reduced structural connectivity in the Box-Ironbark ecosystem may still allow sufficient gene flow to avoid the harmful effects of inbreeding in our study species. Although there may still be negative consequences of fragmentation for demographic connectivity, the high genetic connectivity of mobile bird species in this system suggests that reconnecting isolated habitat patches may be less important than increasing habitat extent and/or quality if these need to be traded off.

The central-place territorial model does not apply to space-use by juvenile brook charr Salvelinus fontinalis in lakes

1. Territoriality is widely accepted as the mechanism responsible for density-dependent mortality, emigration, and 'self-thinning' of populations of juvenile salmonine fishes in streams. Numerous studies have focused on territoriality exclusively in stream (lotic) environments and thus have fostered a stereotyped view of juvenile salmonines as sedentary and territorial. We term this behavioural paradigm the central-place territorial model (CPTM).

2. We tested predictions characterizing the CPTM for young-of-the-year (YOY) brook charr (Salvelinus fontinalis) in two Canadian lakes to determine if territoriality may also potentially limit space and population size of brook charr in lakes.

3. Our findings were not consistent with the CPTM. Fish in both lakes were not central-place forages. Maximum displacement distance did not increase with body length as predicted by the general salmonine model of Grant and Kramer (1990). Net displacement distanced increased with the proportion of time spent moving. Aggressive frequency was greatest for fish which spent large proportions of time moving and did not defend from a central-place.

4. Fish in both lakes were rarely aggressive, highly active, and often moved back over the same areas. However, lake fish which migrated to a tributary stream had no net displacement (central-place foraging) illustrating the immediate effects of current on foraging tactics and space-use.

5. The effect of hydrodynamic environment (flowing vs. still water) on fish behaviour needs to be explicitly considered in future models of salmonine behaviour.

The development and validation of an urbanicity scale in a multi-country study

Background : Although urban residence is consistently identified as one of the primary correlates of non-communicable disease in low- and middle-income countries, it is not clear why or how urban settings predispose individuals and populations to non-communicable disease (NCD), or how this relationship could be modified to slow the spread of NCD. The urban–rural dichotomy used in most population health research lacks the nuance and specificity necessary to understand the complex relationship between urbanicity and NCD risk. Previous studies have developed and validated quantitative tools to measure urbanicity continuously along several dimensions but all have been isolated to a single country. The purposes of this study were 1) To assess the feasibility and validity of a multi-country urbanicity scale; 2) To report some of the considerations that arise in applying such a scale in different countries; and, 3) To assess how this scale compares with previously validated scales of urbanicity.

Methods : Household and community-level data from the Young Lives longitudinal study of childhood poverty in 59 communities in Ethiopia, India and Peru collected in 2006/2007 were used. Household-level data include parents’ occupations and education level, household possessions and access to resources. Community-level data include population size, availability of health facilities and types of roads. Variables were selected for inclusion in the urbanicity scale based on inspection of the data and a review of literature on urbanicity and health. Seven domains were constructed within the scale: Population Size, Economic Activity, Built Environment, Communication, Education, Diversity and Health Services.

Results : The scale ranged from 11 to 61 (mean 35) with significant between country differences in mean urbanicity; Ethiopia (30.7), India (33.2), Peru (39.4). Construct validity was supported by factor analysis and high corrected item-scale correlations suggest good internal consistency. High agreement was observed between this scale and a dichotomized version of the urbanicity scale (Kappa 0.76; Spearman’s rank-correlation coefficient 0.84 (p < 0.0001). Linear regression of socioeconomic indicators on the urbanicity scale supported construct validity in all three countries (p < 0.05).

Conclusions : This study demonstrates and validates a robust multidimensional, multi-country urbanicity scale. It is an important step on the path to creating a tool to assess complex processes like urbanization. This scale provides the means to understand which elements of urbanization have the greatest impact on health.

Limited population structure, genetic drift and bottlenecks characterise an endangered bird species in a dynamic, fire-prone ecosystem

Fire is a major disturbance process in many ecosystems world-wide, resulting in spatially and temporally dynamic landscapes. For populations occupying such environments, fire-induced landscape change is likely to influence population processes, and genetic patterns and structure among populations. The Mallee Emu-wren Stipiturus mallee is an endangered passerine whose global distribution is confined to fire-prone, semi-arid mallee shrublands in south-eastern Australia. This species, with poor capacity for dispersal, has undergone a precipitous reduction in distribution and numbers in recent decades. We used genetic analyses of 11 length-variable, nuclear loci to examine population structure and processes within this species, across its global range. Populations of the Mallee Emu-wren exhibited a low to moderate level of genetic diversity, and evidence of bottlenecks and genetic drift. Bayesian clustering methods revealed weak genetic population structure across the species' range. The direct effects of large fires, together with associated changes in the spatial and temporal patterns of suitable habitat, have the potential to cause population bottlenecks, serial local extinctions and subsequent recolonisation, all of which may interact to erode and homogenise genetic diversity in this species. Movement among temporally and spatially shifting habitat, appears to maintain long-term genetic connectivity. A plausible explanation for the observed genetic patterns is that, following extensive fires, recolonisation exceeds in-situ survival as the primary driver of population recovery in this species. These findings suggest that dynamic, fire-dominated landscapes can drive genetic homogenisation of populations of species with low-mobility and specialised habitat that otherwise would be expected to show strongly structured populations. Such effects must be considered when formulating management actions to conserve species in fire-prone systems.