Using climatic suitability thresholds to identify past, present and future population viability

Often climatic niche models predict that any change in climatic conditions will impact species abundance or distribution. However, the accuracy of models that just incorporate climatic information to predict future species habitat use is widely debated. Alternatively, environmental conditions may simply need to be above some minimum threshold of climatic suitability, at which point, other factors drive population size. Using the example of nesting sites of loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) in the Mediterranean (n = 105), we developed climatic niche models to examine whether a climatic suitability threshold could be identified as a climatic indicator in order for large populations of a widespread species to exist. We then assessed the climatic suitability of sites above and below this threshold in the past (∼1900) and future (∼2100). Most large sites that are currently above the climatic threshold were above the threshold in the past and future, particularly when future nesting seasonality shifted to start 1–2 months earlier. Our analyses highlight the importance of future phenological shifts for maintaining suitability. Our results provide a positive outlook for sea turtle conservation, suggesting that climatic conditions may remain suitable in the future at sites that currently support large nesting populations. Our study also provides an alternative way of interpreting the outputs of climatic niche models, by generating a threshold as an index of a minimum climatic suitability required to sustain large populations. This type of approach offers the possibility to benefit from information provided by climate-driven models, while reducing their inherent uncertainties.

Dasyurid dilemmas: problems and solutions for conserving Australia's small carnivorous marsupials

Dasyurid marsupials are distributed throughout the major terrestrial environments of Australia but since European settlement have suffered local and regional extinctions, range reductions and population declines. In this paper we examine the conservation status of small dasyurids (<500 g) and the threats they face. We also evaluate recovery procedures for threatened taxa and assess their success. Twenty-four percent of smaller dasyurids are classified as vulnerable, endangered or data deficient. Large body size and occupancy of one or two habitat types are correlated strongly with  endangerment species currently considered as 'low risk, near threatened' group closely with vulnerable and endangered species, indicating a risk of further declines. The processes contributing most to declines include habitat loss and fragmentation, altered fire regimes and predation. As of April 200 I, no Recovery Plans had been adopted by the Commonwealth Govemment for any small dasyund species. There is much information on the reproduction and development of smaller dasyurids, making them suitable for captive breeding. However, captive breeding programs have been limited. the  dibbler Paranrechinus apicalis being the only species bred systematically for reintroductions. There is a need for integration between captive breeding programs and recovery planning. as well as for more information on the population viability and metapopulation structures of small dasyurids genetic diversity of populations and inbreeding depression. We suggest a program of survey. research. management and education to Improve conservation outcomes for all small dasyurids.

Isolation and characterization of microsatellite loci to DNA fingerprint the powerful owl (Ninox Strenua)

An enriched microsatellite library was constructed for the Powerful Owl (Aves; Strigiformes: Ninox strenua) from which 14 polymorphic microsatellite markers were characterized. Forty individuals (32 unrelated and four pairs of siblings) were genotyped to determine the application of these markers for genetic profiling. The mean observed and expected heterozygosity for unrelated individuals was 0.53 and 0.59, respectively. We demonstrate that this suite of markers is sufficient to unequivocally identify individuals and will be beneficial in assessing the population genetics and reproductive ecology of this species.

Non-invasive sampling techniques : applications for mapping the generic variation of powerful owls

The Powerful Owl (Ninox strenua) is endemic to Australia, being resident in the three eastern mainland states and the Australian Capital Territory. It is classified nationally as of conservation significance and vulnerable in the state of Victoria. The elusive nature of this owl, along with its dispersed distribution, low population density and difficulty in identifying individual birds, limit the collection of ecological data. Molecular methods can be used to obtain crucial ecological information, essential for Powerful Owl conservation.

Non-invasive sampling is a relatively new method used for obtaining genetic material from free-ranging animals. This type of sampling however, is generally overlooked as a potential DNA source. Shed hair and feathers, faeces, urine, skins and eggshells are all potential sources of DNA. Non-invasive sampling regimes may be the only alternative for the genetic analysis of endangered and/or elusive species that are difficult to sample otherwise.

Powerful Owls moult annually. Shed feathers therefore, can be collected from under roost trees and used for genetic analysis. Feathers collected provide DNA that is unique to the individual and can provide additional ecological knowledge of the species.

In this study we collected shed Powerful Owl feathers during 2003 and 2004. In order to obtain samples from across the owl's large distribution, public awareness about the project via the way of flyers, mail-outs, media sources (radio, newspapers and magazines), email lists and public seminars was initiated. Overall, the collection strategy was very successful with over 500 Powerful Owl feather samples being collected.

Genetic information obtained from the analysis of DNA from feathers can enable a more rigorous assessment of population viability of the Powerful Owl. Specifically designed molecular markers will facilitate unequivocal identification of individual birds ("DNA fingerprinting"). Through the application of molecular techniques we can collect ecological information about the Powerful Owl such as, genetic divergence, population structure, dispersal patterns, migration and inbreeding. These questions can not be addressed via traditional data collection and will contribute significantly to the successful conservation of the Powerful Owl and potentially other raptor species.

Toad's tongue for breakfast : exploitation of a novel prey type, the invasive cane toad, by scavenging raptors in tropical Australia

Although interest in the ecological impacts of invasive species has largely focused on negative effects, some native taxa may benefit from invader arrival. In tropical Australia, invasive cane toads (Bufo marinus) have fatally poisoned many native predators (e.g., marsupials, crocodiles, lizards) that attempt to ingest the toxic anurans, but birds appear to be more resistant to toad toxins. We quantified offtake of dead (road-killed) cane toads by raptors (black kites (Milvus migrans) and whistling kites (Haliastur sphenurus)) at a site near Darwin, in the Australian wet-dry tropics. Raptors readily took dead toads, especially small ones, although native frogs were preferred to toads if available. More carcasses were removed in the dry season than the wet season, perhaps reflecting seasonal availability of alternative prey. Raptors appeared to recognize and avoid bufotoxins, and typically removed and consumed only the toads’ tongues (thereby minimizing toxin uptake). The invasion of cane toads thus constitutes a novel prey type for scavenging raptors, rather than (as is the case for many other native predators) a threat to population viability.

How well do predators adjust to climate-mediated shifts in prey distribution? A study on Australian water pythons

Climate change can move the spatial location of resources critical for population viability, and a species' resilience to such changes will depend upon its ability to flexibly shift its activities away from no-longer-suitable sites to exploit new opportunities. Intuition suggests that vagile predators should be able to track spatial shifts in prey availability, but our data on water pythons (Liasis fuscus) in tropical Australia suggest a less encouraging scenario. These pythons undergo regular long-range (to >10 km) seasonal migrations to follow flooding-induced migrations by their prey (native dusky rats, Rattus colletti). However, when an extreme flooding event virtually eliminated rats for a three-year period, the local pythons did not disperse despite the presence of abundant rats only 8 km away; instead, many pythons starved to death. This inflexibility suggests that some vagile species that track seasonally migrating prey may do so by responding to habitat attributes that have consistently predicted prey availability over evolutionary time, rather than reacting to proximate cues that signal the presence of prey per se. A species' vulnerability to climate change will be increased by an inability to shift its activities away from historical sites toward newly favorable areas.

Different male vs. female breeding periodicity helps mitigate offspring sex ratio skews in sea turtles

 The implications of climate change for global biodiversity may be profound with those species with little capacity for adaptation being thought to be particularly vulnerable to warming. A classic case of groups for concern are those animals exhibiting temperature-dependent sex-determination (TSD), such as sea turtles, where climate warming may produce single sex populations and hence extinction. We show that, globally, female biased hatchling sex ratios dominate sea turtle populations (exceeding 3:1 in >50% records), which, at-a-glance, reiterates concerns for extinction. However, we also demonstrate that more frequent breeding by males, empirically shown by satellite tracking 23 individuals and supported by a generalized bio-energetic life history model, generates more balanced operational sex ratios (OSRs). Hence, concerns of increasingly skewed hatchling sex ratios and reduced population viability are less acute than previously thought for sea turtles. In fact, in some scenarios skewed hatchling sex ratios in groups with TSD may be adaptive to ensure optimum OSRs.

Extinction risk in cloud forest fragments under climate change and habitat loss

Aim: To quantify the consequences of major threats to biodiversity, such as climate and land-use change, it is important to use explicit measures of species persistence, such as extinction risk. The extinction risk of metapopulations can be approximated through simple models, providing a regional snapshot of the extinction probability of a species. We evaluated the extinction risk of three species under different climate change scenarios in three different regions of the Mexican cloud forest, a highly fragmented habitat that is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Location Cloud forests in Mexico.
Methods: Using Maxent, we estimated the potential distribution of cloud forest for three different time horizons (2030, 2050 and 2080) and their overlap with protected areas. Then, we calculated the extinction risk of three contrasting vertebrate species for two scenarios: (1) climate change only (all suitable areas of cloud forest through time) and (2) climate and land-use change (only suitable areas within a currently protected area), using an explicit patch-occupancy approximation model and calculating the joint probability of all populations becoming extinct when the number of remaining patches was less than five.
Results: Our results show that the extent of environmentally suitable areas for cloud forest in Mexico will sharply decline in the next 70 years. We discovered that if all habitat outside protected areas is transformed, then only species with small area requirements are likely to persist. With habitat loss through climate change only, high dispersal rates are sufficient for persistence, but this requires protection of all remaining cloud forest areas.
Main conclusions: Even if high dispersal rates mitigate the extinction risk of species due to climate change, the synergistic impacts of changing climate and land use further threaten the persistence of species with higher area requirements. Our approach for assessing the impacts of threats on biodiversity is particularly useful when there is little time or data for detailed population viability analyses.

Testing the focal species approach to making conservation decisions for species persistence

Aim: Most risk assessments and decisions in conservation are based on surrogate approaches, where a group of species or environmental indicators are selected as proxies for other aspects of biodiversity. In the focal species approach, a suite of species is selected based on life history characteristics, such as dispersal limitation and area requirements. Testing the validity of the focal species concept has proved difficult, due to a lack of theory justifying the underlying framework, explicit objectives and measures of success. We sought to understand the conditions under which the focal species concept has merit for conservation decisions. Location: Our model system comprised 10 vertebrate species in 39 patches of native forest embedded in pine plantation in New South Wales, Australia. Methods: We selected three focal species based on ecological traits. We used a multiple-species reserve selection method that minimizes the expected loss of species, by estimating the risk of extinction with a metapopulation model. We found optimal reserve solutions for multiple species, including all 10 species, the three focal species, for all possible combinations of three species, and for each species individually. Results: Our case study suggests that the focal species approach can work: the reserve system that minimized the expected loss of the focal species also minimized the expected species loss in the larger set of 10 species. How well the solution would perform for other species and given landscape dynamics remains unknown. Main conclusions: The focal species approach may have merit as a conservation short cut if placed within a quantitative decision-making framework, where the aspects of biodiversity for which the focal species act as proxies are explicitly defined, and success is determined by whether the use of the proxy results in the same decision. Our methods provide a framework for testing other surrogate approaches used in conservation decision-making and risk assessment. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A bust but no boom: responses of floodplain bird assemblages during and after prolonged drought

Climate change alters the frequency and severity of extreme events, such as drought. Such events will be increasingly important in shaping communities as climate change intensifies. The ability of species to withstand extreme events (resistance) and to recover once adverse conditions abate (resilience) will determine their persistence. We estimated the resistance and resilience of bird species during and after a 13-year drought (the 'Big Dry') in floodplain forests in south-eastern Australia. We conducted bird surveys at the beginning and end of the Big Dry, and after the abrupt end to the drought (the 'Big Wet'), to evaluate species-specific changes in reporting rates among the three periods. We assessed changes in bird-breeding activity before and after the Big Wet to estimate demographic resilience based on breeding. Between the start and the end of the Big Dry (1998 vs. 2009), 37 of 67 species declined substantially. Of those, only two had increased reporting rates after the Big Wet (2009 vs. 2013) that were equal to or larger than their declines, while three partially recovered. All other declining species showed low resilience: 25 showed no change in reporting rates and seven declined further. The number of breeding species and total breeding activity of all species declined after the Big Wet, and there was no change in the number of young produced. The Big Dry caused widespread declines in the floodplain avifauna. Despite the drought being broken by 2 years of well-above-average rainfall and subsequent near-average rainfall, most species showed low resilience and there was little indication that overall breeding had increased. The effects of drought appeared to be pervasive for much of the floodplain avifauna, regardless of species traits (species body mass, fecundity, mobility or diet). Ecosystems such as these are likely to require active management and restoration, including reinstatement of natural flooding regimes, to improve ecological condition, to enhance resistance and resilience to extreme climate events.

Out of sight but not out of mind: corvids prey extensively on eggs of burrow-nesting penguins

Context Egg depredation is a major cause of reproductive failure among birds and can drive population declines. In this study we investigate predatory behaviour of a corvid (little raven; Corvus mellori) that has only recently emerged, leading to widespread and intense depredation of eggs of a burrow-nesting seabird (little penguin; Eudyptula minor). Aims The main objective of this study was to measure the rate of penguin egg depredation by ravens to determine potential threat severity. We also examined whether penguin burrow characteristics were associated with the risk of egg depredation. Ravens generally employ two modes of predatory behaviour when attacking penguin nests; thus we examined whether burrow characteristics were associated with these modes of attack. Methods Remote-sensing cameras were deployed on penguin burrows to determine egg predation rates. Burrow measurements, including burrow entrance and tunnel characteristics, were measured at the time of camera deployment. Key results Overall, clutches in 61% of monitored burrows (n≤203) were depredated by ravens, the only predator detected by camera traps. Analysis of burrow characteristics revealed two distinct types of burrows, only one of which was associated with egg depredation by ravens. Clutches depredated by ravens had burrows with wider and higher entrances, thinner soil or vegetation layer above the egg chamber, shorter and curved tunnels and greater areas of bare ground and whitewash near entrances. In addition, 86% were covered by bower spinach (Tetragonia implexicoma), through which ravens could excavate. Ravens used two modes to access the eggs: they attacked through the entrance (25% of burrow attacks, n≤124); or dug a hole through the burrow roof (75% of attacks, n≤124). Burrows that were subject to attack through the entrance had significantly shorter tunnels than burrows accessed through the roof. Conclusions The high rates of clutch loss recorded here highlight the need for population viability analysis of penguins to assess the effect of egg predation on population growth rates. Implications The subterranean foraging niche of a corvid described here may have implications for burrow-nesting species worldwide because many corvid populations are increasing, and they exhibit great capacity to adopt new foraging strategies to exploit novel prey. Journal compilation

Making conservation decisions under uncertainty for the persistence of multiple species

Population models for multiple species provide one of the few means of assessing the impact of alternative management options on the persistence of biodiversity, but
they are inevitably uncertain. Is it possible to use population models in multiple-speciesconservation planning given the associated uncertainties? We use information-gap decision theory to explore the impact of parameter uncertainty on the conservation decision when planning for the persistence of multiple species. An information-gap approach seeks robust outcomes that are most immune from error. We assess the impact of uncertainty in key model parameters for three species, whose extinction risks under four alternative management scenarios are estimated using a metapopulation model. Three methods are described for making conservation decisions across the species, taking into account uncertainty. We find that decisions based on single species are relatively robust to uncertainty in parameters, although the estimates of extinction risk increase rapidly with uncertainty. When identifying the best conservation decision for the persistence of all species, the methods that rely on the rankings of the management options by each species result in decisions that are similarly robust to uncertainty. Methods that depend on absolute values of extinction risk are sensitive to uncertainty, as small changes in extinction risk can alter the ranking of the alternative scenarios. We discover that it is possible to make robust conservation decisions even when the uncertainties of the multiple-species problem appear overwhelming. However, the decision most robust to uncertainty is likely to differ from the best decision when uncertainty is ignored, illustrating the importance of incorporating uncertainty into the decision-making process.

The trajectory of dispersal research in conservation biology. Systematic review

Dispersal knowledge is essential for conservation management, and demand is growing. But are we accumulating dispersal knowledge at a pace that can meet the demand? To answer this question we tested for changes in dispersal data collection and use over time. Our systematic review of 655 conservation-related publications compared five topics: climate change, habitat restoration, population viability analysis, land planning (systematic conservation planning) and invasive species. We analysed temporal changes in the: (i) questions asked by dispersal-related research; (ii) methods used to study dispersal; (iii) the quality of dispersal data; (iv) extent that dispersal knowledge is lacking, and; (v) likely consequences of limited dispersal knowledge. Research questions have changed little over time; the same problems examined in the 1990s are still being addressed. The most common methods used to study dispersal were occupancy data, expert opinion and modelling, which often provided indirect, low quality information about dispersal. Although use of genetics for estimating dispersal has increased, new ecological and genetic methods for measuring dispersal are not yet widely adopted. Almost half of the papers identified knowledge gaps related to dispersal. Limited dispersal knowledge often made it impossible to discover ecological processes or compromised conservation outcomes. The quality of dispersal data used in climate change research has increased since the 1990s. In comparison, restoration ecology inadequately addresses large-scale process, whilst the gap between knowledge accumulation and growth in applications may be increasing in land planning. To overcome apparent stagnation in collection and use of dispersal knowledge, researchers need to: (i) improve the quality of available data using new approaches; (ii) understand the complementarities of different methods and; (iii) define the value of different kinds of dispersal information for supporting management decisions. Ambitious, multi-disciplinary research programs studying many species are critical for advancing dispersal research.

Overlap between flesh-footed shearwater Puffinus carneipes foraging areas and commercial fisheries in New Zealand waters

Although the flesh-footed shearwater Puffinus carneipes is a species with large population sizes (tens of thousands of breeding pairs) and widespread sub-tropical distribution across Australasian water masses, it is among the species most threatened by longline fisheries mortality in this region. While bycatch mitigation measures have been very successful in reducing mortality in some species, bycatch of flesh-footed shearwaters is still high, with captures estimated to exceed the sustainable take of 514 birds yr-1 by nearly 200 birds for New Zealand fisheries alone. Management agencies aiming to reduce the impact of fisheries mortality on the populations need to understand which marine areas are being used by flesh-footed shearwaters to better target fishery monitoring and mitigation efforts. Foraging studies of seabirds tell us about their use of resources, i.e. the way species segregate the available habitat and help to identify threats that may affect population viability. Breeding shearwaters were tracked from 2 New Zealand colonies using GPS loggers. Individuals foraged over shelf and deep oceanic waters up to 1200 km from their nesting sites during incubation but were mainly within 370 km during early chick rearing. The intensity of potential interactions increased for trawl and surface longline fishing between the January and February study periods but remained at a similar level for bottom longline fishing. Following the field data collection, changes to fishery monitoring were implemented in the areas where shearwaters foraged.