Estimating population size of the black-eared miner, with an assessment of landscape-scale habitat requirements

The decline of the Black-eared Miner Manorina melanotis has been caused primarily by habitat degradation and vegetation clearance. To better direct conservation actions for this species there was a need to assess habitat requirements on a regional-scale and to estimate the population size using quantitative methods. We used vegetation mapping and the current distribution of the Black-eared Miner to determine regional-scale habitat requirements. These findings were combined with the results of distance sampling to provide population estimates. The species is restricted to large tracts of intact mallee in the Murray Mallee of southeastern Australia that have not been burnt for at least 45 years. The density· of Black-eared Miners is highest in areas that are dominated by mallee- Triodia associations and have not been intensively grazed. The Bookmark Biosphere Reserve supports an estimated 501 (270-927, 95% CI) colonies, containing 3758 (2026-6954) phenotypically pure Black-eared Miners, 2255 (1 215-4170) hybrids and small numbers of Yellow-throated Miners Manorina flavigula. However, the effective population size is considerably smaller (390 Black-eared Miners '(21 0-726) and 234 hybrids (126-433)), due to a skewed adult sex ratio (1 female: 1.81 males) and complex social organization. A smaller population also persists in the Murray Sunset National Park containing 53 (32-85) Black-eared Miner/hybrid colonies. Both populations face a high risk of extinction from large-scale wildfire. The endangered status of the species under IUCN criteria remains warranted.

Pup production and population trends of the Australian fur seal (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus)

We estimated the number of live Australian fur seal pups using capture-markresights, direct ground counts, or aerial photography at all breeding sites following the pupping season of November-December 2002. Pups were recorded at 17 locations; nine previously known colony sites, one newly recognized colony and seven haul-out sites where pups are occasionally born. In order of size, the colonies were Lady Julia Percy Island (5,899 pups), Seal Rocks (4,882), The Skerries (2,486), Judgment Rocks (2,427), Kanowna Island (2,301), Moriarty Rocks (1,007), Reid Rocks (384), West Moncoeur Island (257), and Tenth Island (124). The newly recognized site was Rag Island, in the Cliffy Group, where we recorded 30 pups. We also recorded pups at the following haul-out sites: Cape Bridge-water (7 pups), Bull Rock (7), Wright Rock (5), Twin Islet (1), The Friars (1), He des Phoques (1), and Montague Island (1). In total, we estimate there were 19,819 (SE = 163) live pups at the time of the counts. We discuss trends in pup numbers and derive current population estimates for the Australian fur seal.

Densities of individually marked migrants away from the marking site to estimate population sizes : a test with three wader populations

Capsule Population estimates based on the mark–resighting method can be a useful alternative to population-wide counts.

Aims To investigate whether the mark–resighting method can be used as an alternative to counts to estimate the size of wader populations.

Methods Individual colour-marking and subsequent resightings allowed accurate estimates of annual survival for three populations of waders, on which basis we could estimate the actual number of marked birds alive. Densities of marked birds were determined on sites away (2000–4300 km) from the ringing locations expecting marked birds to be randomly distributed among non-marked conspecifics. Population sizes are estimated by combining these densities with the number of marked birds alive.

Results We found indications that the distribution of marked birds was indeed random in the locations away from the site of marking. The estimated population size of Red Knot Calidris canutus canutus was in accordance with the most recent estimates based on counts. Our estimate of the Calidris c. islandica population was somewhat lower, and that of the Bar-tailed Godwit Limosa lapponica taymyrensis population was considerably lower than the latest estimates based on counts.

Conclusion Population estimates based on the mark–resighting method can be a useful alternative for, or addition to, population-wide counts, as long as the assumption of random distribution of marked birds at the reading sites is taken into account. We conclude that the Afro-Siberian Bar-tailed Godwit population has recently decreased in size or has been substantially overestimated during the counts.

Optimizing survey effort for burrow-nesting seabirds

Regular monitoring of seabird populations is necessary to improve our understanding of their responses to environmental change and inform conservation management. However, given the difficulty in accessing remote breeding sites and the limited resources typically available to land managers, conducting regular, extensive surveys of seabird populations is often not feasible. Our objective was to determine the minimum survey effort required to obtain accurate and precise population estimates of Short-tailed Shearwaters (Ardenna tenuirostris) and Little Penguins (Eudyptula minor), two abundant burrowing seabird species in southeastern Australia, by comparing bootstrapped means and confidence intervals under different sampling regimes on four islands. We found that, in many cases, survey effort (the proportion of transects and quadrats along transects surveyed) could be reduced. For Short-tailed Shearwaters, reducing the number of transects resulted in a maximum difference of 15% between the means at full survey effort and two levels of reduced survey effort. Means differed by <3% when we halved the number of quadrats. For Little Penguins, reducing the number of transects and quadrats by 50% resulted in differences of 7-40% and 4-34%, respectively, between the full and reduced survey effort means. Confidence intervals generally increased with decreasing survey effort for both species. Differences in required survey effort between the two species in our study may have been due to differences in burrow distribution on islands, with Short-tailed Shearwater burrows generally uniformly distributed on each island and Little Penguin burrows typically occurring in patches. These would be influenced by island-specific characteristics in concert with habitat preferences, population size, and seasonal variation in seabird abundance. Stratified sampling did not increase survey accuracy and simulations showed that large reductions in survey effort could be made under a pseudo-random sampling regime, with mean abundance estimates similar at most levels of survey effort. For both species, reducing the proportion of pseudo-random quadrats to 50% and 25% of the full survey effort produced confidence intervals of 12% and 21%, respectively, of the maximum, whereas a survey effort of 10% produced confidence intervals of up to 36% of the maximum for both species. A pseudo-random sampling regime would maximize survey efficiency because considerably fewer quadrats would be required and allow development of more efficient sampling protocols and regimes.

Estimating the number of green and loggerhead turtles nesting annually in the Mediterranean

Most species of marine turtle breed every two or more years and it is the norm for females to lay more than one clutch of eggs within a nesting season. Knowing the interval between breeding seasons and the clutch frequency (number of clutches laid by an individual in a breeding season) of females allows us to assess the status of a nesting population. At Alagadi Beach, Northern Cyprus, over a period of 6 years (1995–2000), we attributed 96% of green Chelonia mydas and 80% of loggerhead Caretta caretta turtle clutches to known individual females. This intensive level of monitoring enabled us to estimate the clutch frequency for both species. Using four different methods we estimated clutch frequency to be 2.9–3.1 clutches per female for green turtles and 1.8–2.2 clutches per female for loggerhead turtles. The median interval between nesting seasons for green turtles was 3 years, and for loggerhead turtles it was 2 years. Utilizing these parameters and available data from other beaches that are monitored regularly, we estimate that there are 2,280–2,787 logger-head and 339–360 green turtles nesting annually at these sites in the Mediterranean. This highlights the Critically Endangered status of this population of green turtles. Furthermore, as conventional beach patrols underestimate clutch frequency, these population estimates are likely to be optimistic.

IDF Diabetes Atlas : sixth edition

This 6th edition of the IDF Diabetes Atlas once again sets the standard for evidence on the global epidemiology of diabetes. The new estimates build on the groundwork laid by previous editions, and confirm the precipitous rise in diabetes over the last few years. An astounding 382 million people are estimated to have diabetes, with dramatic increases seen in countries all over the world. The overwhelming burden of the disease continues to be shouldered by low- and middleincome countries, where four out of five people with diabetes are living. Socially and economically disadvantaged people in every country carry the greatest burden of diabetes and are often the most affected financially.

Sequence type 131 fimH30 and fimH41 subclones amongst escherichia coli isolates in Australia and New Zealand

The clonal composition of Escherichia coli causing extra-intestinal infections includes ST131 and other common uropathogenic clones. Drivers for the spread of these clones and risks for their acquisition have been difficult to define. In this study, molecular epidemiology was combined with clinical data from 182 patients enrolled in a case-control study of community-onset expanded-spectrum cephalosporin-resistant E. coli (ESC-R-EC) in Australia and New Zealand. Genetic analysis included antimicrobial resistance mechanisms, clonality by DiversiLab (rep-PCR) and multilocus sequence typing (MLST), and subtyping of ST131 by identification of polymorphisms in the fimH gene. The clonal composition of expanded-spectrum cephalosporin-susceptible E. coli and ESC-R-EC isolates differed, with six MLST clusters amongst susceptible isolates (median 7 isolates/cluster) and three clusters amongst resistant isolates, including 40 (45%) ST131 isolates. Population estimates indicate that ST131 comprises 8% of all E. coli within our population; the fluoroquinolone-susceptible H41 subclone comprised 4.5% and the H30 subclone comprised 3.5%. The H30 subclone comprised 39% of all ESC-R-EC and 41% of all fluoroquinolone-resistant E. coli within our population. Patients with ST131 were also more likely than those with non-ST131 isolates to present with an upper than lower urinary tract infection (RR=1.8, 95% CI 1.01-3.1). ST131 and the H30 subclone were predominant amongst ESC-R-EC but were infrequent amongst susceptible isolates where the H41 subclone was more prevalent. Within our population, the proportional contribution of ST131 to fluoroquinolone resistance is comparable with that of other regions. In contrast, the overall burden of ST131 is low by global standards.

Can we obtain realistic parameter estimates for the 'protection for sale' model?

In the Grossman and Helpman (1994) model of endogenous trade protection, sectoral lobbies try to influence an incumbent government that maximizes a weighted sum of political contributions and aggregate welfare. We empirically investigate this model using U.S. and Turkish data. Our specification is more tightly tied to theory than those in existing studies. Additionally, we assume all specific‐factor owners to be organized into different lobbies. These changes, validated by hypothesis tests, yield more realistic parameter estimates of the government's concern for aggregate welfare and of the fraction of population organized into lobbies.

Cross-national compartability of burden of disease estimates:the European disability weights project

Objective: To investigate the sources of cross-national variation in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in the European Disability
Weights Project.

Methods: Disability weights for 15 disease stages were derived empirically in five countries by means of a standardized procedure and the cross-national differences in visual analogue scale (VAS) scores were analysed. For each country the burden of dementia in women, used as an illustrative example, was estimated in DALYs. An analysis was performed of the relative effects of cross-national variations in demography, epidemiology and disability weights on DALY estimates.

Findings: Cross-national comparison of VAS scores showed almost identical ranking orders. After standardization for population size and age structure of the populations, the DALY rates per 100 000 women ranged from 1050 in France to 1404 in the Netherlands. Because of uncertainties in the epidemiological data, the extent to which these differences reflected true variation between countries was difficult to estimate. The use of European rather than country-specific disability weights did not lead to a significant change in the burden of disease estimates for dementia.

Conclusions: Sound epidemiological data are the first requirement for burden of disease estimation and relevant between-countries comparisons. DALY estimates for dementia were relatively insensitive to differences in disability weights between European countries.

The impact of study design on prevalence estimates of female sexual dysfunction

Introduction, objectives Despite increasing research, the true prevalence of Female Sexual Dysfunction (FSD) remains a contentious issue. Previous research suggests that aspects of study design affect the reported prevalence of FSD. We compare commonly used instruments for assessing FSD. Methods A random sample of 240 Australian women aged 20-70 participated in this population based, cross-sectional study. A questionnaire mailed to women across Australia included four instruments for assessing FSD. The Sexual Function Questionnaire combined with the Female Sexual Distress Scale (SFQ-FSDS) was employed as a standard, validated instrument. Alternative instruments were the SFQ alone and two modified versions of a set of questions originally developed by Laumann et al. Results When assessed by the SFQ-FSDS, prevalence estimates (and 95% confidence intervals) of Hypoactive Sexual Desire Disorder, Female Sexual Arousal Disorder (genital subtype), Female Orgasmic Disorder, and Dysparunia were 16%(11-20%), 8%(4-11%), 9%(6-13%), 2%(0.1-3%) respectively. The prevalence estimates of these same disorders obtained using alternative instruments were 32-55%, 17-35%, 17-33% and 3-25% respectively. The sensitivity of alternative instruments varied widely (0 to 1.0). Specificities ranged from 0.51 to 0.99. Positive predictive values ranged from 0 to 0.57. Negative predictive values were all above 0.90. Changing the time span for recalling sexual experiences in an instrument altered the prevalence estimates, sensitivity and specificity. 32% of women with low desire, 31% with low genital arousal, 36% with orgasm difficulty and 57% with sexual pain were sexually distressed. Conclusion Over a third of women who were classified as suffering FSD by alternative instruments did not have FSD when assessed by SFQ-FSDS. Alternative instruments produced substantially higher prevalence estimates of FSD and identified different groups of women. Consequently, the instruments researchers choose to assess FSD may affect both the prevalence estimates and risk factors they report.

Prevalence of obesity and the relationship between the body mass index and body fat : cross-sectional, population-based data

Background: Anthropometric measures such as the body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference are widely used as convenient indices of adiposity, yet there are limitations in their estimates of body fat. We aimed to determine the prevalence of obesity using criteria based on the BMI and waist circumference, and to examine the relationship between the BMI and body fat.

Methodology/Principal Findings: This population-based, cross-sectional study was conducted as part of the Geelong Osteoporosis Study. A random sample of 1,467 men and 1,076 women aged 20–96 years was assessed 2001–2008. Overweight and obesity were identified according to BMI (overweight 25.0–29.9 kg/m2; obesity $30.0 kg/m2) and waist circumference (overweight men 94.0–101.9 cm; women 80.0–87.9 cm; obesity men $102.0 cm, women $88.0 cm); body fat mass was assessed using dual energy X-ray absorptiometry; height and weight were measured and lifestyle factors documented by self-report. According to the BMI, 45.1% (95%CI 42.4–47.9) of men and 30.2% (95%CI 27.4–33.0) of women were overweight and a further 20.2% (95%CI 18.0–22.4) of men and 28.6% (95%CI 25.8–31.3) of women were obese. Using waist circumference, 27.5% (95%CI 25.1–30.0) of men and 23.3% (95%CI 20.8–25.9) of women were overweight, and 29.3% (95%CI 26.9–31.7) of men and 44.1% (95%CI 41.2–47.1) of women, obese. Both criteria indicate that approximately 60% of the population exceeded recommended thresholds for healthy body habitus. There was no consistent pattern apparent between BMI and energy intake. Compared with women, BMI overestimated adiposity in men, whose excess weight was largely attributable to muscular body builds and greater bone mass. BMI also underestimated adiposity in the elderly. Regression models including gender, age and BMI explained 0.825 of the variance in percent body fat.

Conclusions/Significance: As the BMI does not account for differences in body composition, we suggest that gender- and age-specific thresholds should be considered when the BMI is used to indicate adiposity.

A review of population-based prevalence studies of physical activity in adults in the Asia-Pacific region

Background: Physical activity (PA) surveillance is an important component of non-communicable disease risk factor monitoring, and occurs through national and international surveillance systems. This review identifies population PA estimates for adults in the Asia-Pacific region, and examines variation in trends and prevalence rates obtained using different PA measures.

Methods: Data were obtained from a MEDLINE search; World Health Organization’s Global Health Infobase; Government websites and reference lists of relevant papers. Inclusion criteria included: national studies or those reporting large scale population-level data; data published from 2000 to 2010 and trend data prior; sample sizes over n = 1000, or fewer subjects in small nations.

Results: In total, 56 population surveys from 29 Asia-Pacific countries were identified. Data on ‘sufficient physical activity’ amongst adults were available from 45 studies (80%), with estimates ranging from 7% to 93% (median 62%, inter-quartile range 40%-85%). For 14 countries, estimates of ‘sufficient activity’ were documented in multiple surveys using different methods, with the largest variation from 18% to 92% in Nepal. Median or mean METminutes/ day, reported in 20 studies, ranged from 6 to 1356. Serial trend data were available for 11 countries (22%), for periods spanning 2-10 years. Of these, five countries demonstrated increases in physical activity over time, four demonstrated decreases and three showed no changes.

Conclusions: Many countries in the Asia-Pacific region collect population-level PA data. This review highlights differences in estimates within and between countries. Some differences may be real, others due to variation in the PA questions asked and survey methods used. Use of standardized protocols and measures, and combined reporting of data are essential goals of improved international PA surveillance.

Morbid obesity in women on the rise : an observational, population-based study

Background The obesity epidemic is generally monitored by the proportion of the population whose body mass index (BMI) exceeds 30 kg/m2 but this masks the growing proportion of those who are morbidly obese. This issue is important as the adverse health risks amplify as the level of obesity increases. The aim of this study was to determine how the prevalence of morbid obesity (BMI >= 40.0 kg/m2) has changed over a decade among women living in south-eastern Australia.

Methods BMI was determined for women in the Geelong Osteoporosis study (GOS) during two time periods, a decade apart. Height and weight were measured for 1,494 women (aged 20--94 years) during 1993--7 and for 1,076 women (aged 20--93 years), 2004--8, and the BMI calculated as weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in metres (kg/m2). Prevalence estimates were age-standardised to enable direct comparisons.

Results Mean BMI increased from 26.0 kg/m2 (95%CI 25.7-26.3) in 1993--7, to 27.1 kg/m2 (95%CI 26.8-27.4) in 2004--8. During this period, the prevalence of morbid obesity increased from 2.5% to 4.2% and the standardised morbidity ratio for morbid obesity was 1.69 (95%CI 1.26-2.27). Increases in mean BMI and prevalence of morbid obesity were observed for all ages and across the socioeconomic spectrum.

Conclusions These findings reveal that over a decade, there has been an increase in mean BMI among women residing in south-eastern Australia, resulting in a measurable increase in the prevalence of morbid obesity.