Forecasting the onset of the grass pollen season in Melbourne (Australia)

In Melbourne, a southern hemisphere city with a cool temperate climate, the grass pollen season has been monitored using a Burkard spore trap for 12 years (11 pollen seasons, which extend from October through January). The onset of the grass pollen season (OGPS) has been defined in various ways using both arbitrary cumulative scores (Sum 75, Sum 100) and percentages (10% Pollen Fly). OGPS, based on the forecast model of pollen season devised by Lejoly-Gabriel (Acta Geogr. Lovan., 13 (1978) 1–260) has been most widely used in efforts to forecast the beginning of the pollen season. OGPS occurred in Melbourne between 20 October to 24 November (average 6 November), a difference of 35 days. Duration of the pollen season ranged from 46 to 81 days, with a mean of 55 days, one of the longest reported. The relationships between onset and various weather parameters for July have enabled us to modify a model, using linear regression analysis, to predict onset. The prediction model is based on a negative correlation between date of onset and the sum of rainfall for July (a winter month). The error of prediction (Ep) is 24% and predicted day of OGPS was precisely predicted on 2 occasions, and on others with a range of accuracy of 3 to 14 days.

Magnitude and meaningfulness of change in SF-36 scores in four types of orthopedic surgery

Background: The Medical Outcomes General Health Survey (SF-36) is a widely used health status measure; however, limited evidence is available for its performance in orthopedic settings. The aim of this study was to examine the magnitude and meaningfulness of change and sensitivity of SF-36 subscales following orthopedic surgery.

Methods: Longitudinal data on outcomes of total hip replacement (THR, n = 255), total knee replacement (TKR, n = 103), arthroscopic partial meniscectomy (APM, n = 74) and anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction (ACL, n = 62) were used to estimate the effect sizes (ES, magnitude of change) and minimal detectable change (sensitivity) at the group and individual level. To provide context for interpreting the magnitude of changes in SF-36 scores, we also compared patients' scores with age and sex-matched population norms. The studies were conducted in Sweden. Follow-up was five years in THR and TKR studies, two years in ACL, and three months in APM.

Results: On average, large effect sizes (ES≥0.80) were found after orthopedic surgery in SF-36 subscales measuring physical aspects (physical functioning, role physical, and bodily pain). Small (0.20–0.49) to moderate (0.50–0.79) effect sizes were found in subscales measuring mental and social aspects (role emotional, vitality, social functioning, and mental health). General health scores remained relatively unchanged during the follow-up. Despite improvements, post-surgery mean scores of patients were still below the age and sex matched population norms on physical subscales. Patients' scores on mental and social subscales approached population norms following the surgery. At the individual level, scores of a large proportion of patients were affected by floor or ceiling effects on several subscales and the sensitivity to individual change was very low.

Conclusion: Large to moderate meaningful changes in group scores were observed in all SF-36 subscales except General Health across the intervention groups. Therefore, in orthopedic settings, the SF-36 can be used to show changes for groups in physical, mental, and social dimensions and in comparison with population norms. However, SF-36 subscales have low sensitivity to individual change and so we caution against using SF-36 to monitor the health status of individual patients undergoing orthopedic surgery.

Absolute versus relative difference measures of priming: Which is appropriate when baseline scores change with age?

It is often of theoretical interest to know if implicit memory (repetition priming) develops across childhood under a given circumstance. Methodologically, however, it is difficult to determine whether development is present when baseline performance for unstudied items improves with age. Calculation of priming in absolute (priming=studied - unstudied) or relative-to-baseline terms can lead to different conclusions. In first noting this problem, Parkin (1993) suggested using the Snodgrass (1989a) calculation of relative priming [priming=(studied - unstudied)/(maximum - unstudied)], and most developmental studies have since adopted this procedure. Here, we question the Snodgrass method because the Snodgrass method's results are not replicated in the picture identification task when baselines are equated experimentally across age groups. Instead, results support an absolute measure of priming. Theoretically, we argue against its core assumption; namely, that children and adults always lie on the same learning curve, with an equal maximum performance level and equal rate of learning.

The effects of phonological and morphological training on speech perception scores and grammatical judgments in deaf and hard-of-hearing children

Seventeen primary school deaf and hard-of-hearing children were given two types of training for 9 weeks each. Phonological training involved practice of /s, z, t, d/ in word final position in monomorphemic words. Morphological training involved learning and practicing the rules for forming third-person singular, present tense, past tense, and plurals. The words used in the two training types were different (monomorphemic or polymorphemic) but both involved word final /s, z, t, d/. Grammatical judgments were tested before and after training using short sentences that were read aloud by the child (or by the presenter if the child was unable to read them). Perception was tested with 150 key words in sentences using the trained morphemes and phonemes in word final position. Grammatical judgments for sentences involving the trained morphemes improved significantly after each type of training. Both types of training needed to be completed before a significant improvement was found for speech perception scores. The results suggest that both phonological and morphological training are beneficial in improving speech perception and grammatical performance of deaf and hard-of-hearing children and that both types of training were required to obtain the maximum benefit.

Separating the contributions of hearing, lexical knowledge and speech production to speech perception scores in children with hearing impairments.

Open-set word and sentence speech-perception test scores are commonly used as a measure of hearing abilities in children and adults using cochlear implants and/or hearing aids. These tests are usually presented auditorily with a verbal response. In the case of children, scores are typically lower and more variable than for adults with hearing impairments using similar devices. It is difficult to interpret children's speech-perception scores without considering the effects of lexical knowledge and speech-production abilities on their responses. This study postulated a simple mathematical model to describe the effects of hearing, lexical knowledge, and speech production on the perception test scores for monosyllabic words by children with impaired hearing. Thirty-three primary-school children with impaired hearing, fitted with hearing aids and/or cochlear implants, were evaluated using speech-perception, reading-aloud, speech-production, and language measures. These various measures were incorporated in the mathematical model, which revealed that performance in an open-set word-perception test in the auditory-alone mode is strongly dependent on residual hearing levels, lexical knowledge, and speech-production abilities. Further applications of the model provided an estimate of the effect of each component on the overall speech-perception score for each child.

Birth of a biome : insights into the assembly and maintenance of the Australian arid zone biota

The integration of phylogenetics, phylogeography and palaeoenvironmental studies is providing major insights into the historical forces that have shaped the Earth’s biomes. Yet our present view is biased towards arctic and temperate/tropical forest regions, with very little focus on the extensive arid regions of the planet. The Australian arid zone is one of the largest desert landform systems in the world, with a unique, diverse and relatively well-studied biota. With foci on palaeoenvironmental and molecular data, we here review what is known about the assembly and maintenance of this biome in the context of its physical history, and in comparison with other mesic biomes. Aridification of Australia began in the Mid-Miocene, around 15 million years, but fully arid landforms in central Australia appeared much later, around 1–4 million years. Dated molecular phylogenies of diverse taxa show the deepest divergences of arid-adapted taxa from the Mid-Miocene, consistent with the onset of desiccation. There is evidence of arid-adapted taxa evolving from mesicadapted ancestors, and also of speciation within the arid zone. There is no evidence for an increase in speciation rate during the Pleistocene, and most arid-zone species lineages date to the Pliocene or earlier. The last 0.8 million years have seen major fluctuations of the arid zone, with large areas covered by mobile sand dunes during glacial maxima. Some large, vagile taxa show patterns of recent expansion and migration throughout the arid zone, in parallel with the ice sheet-imposed range shifts in Northern Hemisphere taxa. Yet other taxa show high lineage diversity and strong phylogeographical structure, indicating persistence in multiple localised refugia over several glacial maxima. Similar to the Northern Hemisphere, Pleistocene range shifts have produced suture zones, creating the opportunity for diversification and speciation through hybridisation, polyploidy and parthenogenesis. This review highlights the opportunities that development of arid conditions provides for rapid and diverse evolutionary radiations, and re-enforces the emerging view that Pleistocene environmental change can have diverse impacts on genetic structure and diversity in different biomes. There is a clear need for more detailed and targeted phylogeographical studies of Australia’s arid biota and we suggest a framework and a set of a priori hypotheses by which to proceed.