Trade and industrial policy in developing countries : what scope for interfaces between agent-based models and computable-general equilibrium models

How best to assess trade and industrial policy in developing countries is a controversial question that unlocks a host of modelling complexities. Large computable general-equilibrium (CGE) models dominate many economic policy debates, but recent developments in the field have demonstrated that it is by no means clear that they give reliable results to questions of how trade reforms affect the poor. Over the last decade or so, a new approach to modelling complex systems has emerged using agent-based models (ABMs). This paper explores the question of whether ABMs are useful for economic policy-makers seeking to quantitatively model the effects of trade and industrial policies and whether constructive interfaces could be developed between CGE models and ABMs. The paper argues that in developing economic policy, ABMs can and should be used in conjunction with CGE models and that there is much to be gained from a greater understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of different modelling approaches, and what domains are most appropriate for their use. It concludes with some reflections on the reasons for the success of CGE approaches and ways in which ABMs could be made more widely understood and used among economists.

2001 Volvo Award winner in clinical studies : effects of a media campaign on back pain beliefs and its potential influence on management of low back pain in general practice

Study Design. Quasi-experimental, nonrandomized, nonequivalent, parallel group-controlled study involving before and after telephone surveys of the general population and postal surveys of general practitioners was conducted, with an adjacent state used as a control group.


Objectives. To evaluate the effectiveness of a population-based intervention designed to alter beliefs about back pain, influence medical management, and reduce disability and workers’ compensation–related costs.


Summary of Background Data. A multimedia campaign begun during 1997 in Victoria, Australia, positively advised patients with back pain to stay active and exercise, not to rest for prolonged periods, and to remain at work.


Methods. The campaign’s impact on population beliefs about back pain and fear-avoidance beliefs was measured in telephone surveys, and the effect of the campaign on the potential management of low back pain by general practitioners was assessed by eliciting their likely approach to two hypothetical scenarios in mailed surveys. Demographically identical population groups in Victoria and the control state, New South Wales, were surveyed at three times: before, during, and after intervention in Victoria.


Results. The studies were completed by 4730 individuals in the general population and 2556 general practitioners. There were large statistically significant improvements in back pain beliefs over time in Victoria (mean scores on the Back Beliefs Questionnaire, 26.5, 28.4, and 29.7), but not in New South Wales (26.3, 26.2, and 26.3, respectively). Among those who reported back pain during the previous year, fear-avoidance beliefs about physical activity improved significantly in Victoria (mean scores on the Fear-Avoidance Beliefs Questionnaire for physical activity, 14, 12.5, and 11.6), but not in New South Wales (13.3, 13.6, and 12.7, respectively). General practitioners in Victoria reported significant improvements over time in beliefs about back pain management, as compared with their interstate colleagues. There were statistically significant interactions between state and time for 7 of 10 responses on management of acute low back pain, and for 6 of 10 responses on management of subacute low back pain.


Conclusion. A population-based strategy of providing positive messages about back pain improves the beliefs of the general population and general practitioners about back pain and appears to influence medical management.

Falls prevention in rural general practice: what stands the test of time and where to from here?

Objective: General practitioner recall of the 1992–96 'Stay on Your Feet' (SOYF) program and its influence on practice were surveyed five years post-intervention to gauge sustainability of the SOYF General Practice (GP) component.

Methods: A survey assessed which SOYF components were still in existence, current practice related to falls prevention, and interest in professional development. All general practitioners (GPs) situated within the boundaries of a rural Area Health Service were mailed a survey in late 2001.

Results: Response rate was 66.5% (139/209). Of 117 GPs in practice at the time of SOYF, 80.2% reported having heard of SOYF and 74.4% of those felt it had influenced practice. Half (50.9%) still had a copy of the SOYF GP resource and of those, 58.6% used it at least 'occasionally'. Three-quarters of GPs surveyed (75.2%) checked medications 'most/almost all' of the time with patients over 60 years; 46.7% assessed falls risk factors; 41.3% gave advice; and 22.6% referred to allied health practitioners. GPs indicated a strong interest in falls prevention-related professional development. There was no significant association between use of the SOYF resource package and any of the current falls prevention practices (all χ² >0.05).

Conclusions and implications: There was high recall of SOYF and a general belief that it influenced practice. There was little indication that use of the resource had any lasting influence on GPs' practices. In future, careful thought needs to go into designing a program that has potential to affect long-term change in GPs' falls prevention practice.

Practice nurses' role and knowledge about diabetes management within rural and remote Australian general practices

Background: The increasing prevalence of diabetes and obesity represents a significant disease burden in Australia. Practice nurses (PNs) play an important role in diabetes education and management.

Aim: To explore PNs' roles, knowledge and beliefs about diabetes education and management in rural and remote general practice in Australia.

Method: Exploratory study undertaken in three phases: 1) Pilot study to test the performance of the questionnaire; 2) One-shot cross-sectional survey using self-complete questionnaires; 3) Individual interviews.

Results: Ten PNs completed the pilot test; the draft questionnaire was deemed appropriate to the study purpose. Then, 65 questionnaires were distributed to PNs and 21 responded. Fourteen respondents had worked in the role <5 years, and most PNs attended diabetes education programmes in their workplace. A minority (40%) used diabetes management guidelines regularly. Most knew obesity to be the most common risk factor for diabetes but only 50% knew that glycosylated haemoglobin indicates blood glucose levels over the preceding three months. Self-reported competency to assess patients' self-care practices and medication management practices varied.

Conclusion: PNs' diabetes management was self-reported; their knowledge varied and their perceived benefits of diabetes education differed from those of patients.

An evaluation of a mental health screening and referral pathway for community nursing care : nurses' and general practitioners' perspectives

Aims and objectives. To evaluate a feasible, best practice mental health screening and referral clinical pathway for generalist community nursing care of war veterans and war widow(er)s in Australia.
Background. War veterans commonly experience mental health difficulties and do not always receive required treatment, as can also occur for war widow(er)s. Whenever opportunity arises, such as during community nursing care, it is vital to identify mental health problems in a health promotion framework.
Design. A clinical pathway was developed by literature review and consultation and then trialled and evaluated using mixed methods – quantitative and qualitative.
Methods. Community nurses who trialled the pathway completed an evaluation survey and attended focus groups. General practitioners responded to an evaluation survey.
Results. Most nurses found the pathway clear and easy to understand but not always easy to use. They emphasised the need to establish trust and rapport with clients prior to implementing the pathway. It was sometimes difficult to ensure effective referral to general practitioners for clients who screened positive for a mental health problem. When referral was accomplished, general practitioners reported adequate and useful information was provided. Some general practitioners also commented on the difficulty of achieving effective communication between general practitioners and nurses.
Conclusions. Nurses and some general practitioners found the pathway useful for their practice. They offered several suggestions for improvement by simplifying the trialled pathway and accompanying guidelines and strategies to improve communication between nurses and general practitioners. This study adds understanding of how community nurses might productively screen for mental health difficulties.
Relevance to clinical practice. The trialled pathway, which was modified and refined following the study, is an evidence-based
resource for community nurses in Australia and similar contexts to guide practise and maximise holistic care for war veterans and war widow(er)s and possibly other client groups.

Restraint as misregulation in drinking and eating

The present study was designed to increase our understanding of the co-morbidity between problem drinking and binge eating. The study investigated both consummatory behaviors in relation to restrained drinking, restrained eating, and a general measure of self-control. The participants were a sample of 658 boys and 414 girls aged between 14 and 17 years. The dimension of restraint, which best predicted the two problem behaviors when examined separately for both boys and girls, was cognitive and emotional preoccupation (CEP) about controlling one's consummatory intake. In addition, evidence was found linking both problem drinking and binge eating to restraint and poor general self-control. The struggle with self-control and the high emphasis on CEP about controlling one's consummatory intake, which characterise restrained drinking and restrained eating, closely resembles Baumeister and Heatherton's notion of misregulation [Psychol. Inquiry 7 (1996) 1]. Discussed are the similarities between restraint and misregulation, and the kinds of strategies that can be used to improve self-control.

Changes over time in sexual and relationship functioning of people with multiple sclerosis

Relationship and sexual satisfaction among people with multiple sclerosis (MS) has received little research attention. This article reports on a longitudinal investigation of the impact of coping style and illness-related variables among people with MS and the general population on sexual and relationship functioning. Both men (n = 120) and women (n= 201) with MS and men (n = 79) and women (n = 160) from the general population participated in the study at two points in time, 6 months apart. People with MS experienced lower levels of sexual activity, sexual satisfaction, and relationship satisfaction and higher levels of sexual dysfunction. Generally speaking, the time 1 levels of the health and coping variables explained little of the variance in the time 2 sexual and relationship variables. However, sexual activity at time 1 contributed significant unique variance to relationship satisfaction at time 2 for MS men, and coping strategies at time I contributed to relationship satisfaction among general population women at time 2. Furthermore, for those respondents who had been diagnosed with MS for less than 7 years, levels of sexual activity at time 2 were predicted by levels of sexual and relationship satisfaction, as well as levels of sexual activity at time 1. These results suggest that strategies used to cope with illness may not play a major role in sexual and relationship satisfaction. However, an examination of these strategies over a longer time frame is needed.

The economics and politics of wilderness conservation in Australia

Wilderness conservation has a checkered history in Australian politics. Initially, wilderness was protected in national parks, and specific areas or legislation did not exist. In the 1960s, wilderness conservation became an important issue in Australian politics. Pressure from environmental groups and the general public created several conflicts. Several successes were scored by the joint efforts of interest groups, the public, charismatic individuals, the media, and support of governments and politicians. A number of areas were declared wilderness areas and several states now have wilderness protected through legislation. The 1990s have not been as good as the previous decades for wilderness. Large forest areas are still being cleared and bias toward consumptive use of forest by governments is emerging. Clearly, wilderness protection in Australia is intensely political. It is important that interest groups maintain pressure to protect future wilderness. Efforts to obtain national legislation for wilderness and to couch wilderness in terms of other aspects such as biodiversity and ecosystems values may prove necessary.

A whole body, in vivo, fatty A\acid balance method to quantify PUFA metabolism (desaturation, elongation and beta-oxidation)

Currently there are several contrasting methods utilized for estimating elongation and desaturation of fatty acids and their general metabolism. The majority of these methods involve an ex vivo approach, requiring expensive and sophisticated equipment, likely to result in considerable variation in enzyme activity between and within species. In the present paper we introduce a further development of the whole-body fatty acid balance method for the estimation of the elongation and desaturation of fatty acids. This method though receiving considerable attention because of its simplicity and reliability has yet to be presented in detail. Theoretically, the whole-body fatty acid balance method can potentially be applied to any organism and requires little more than a gas chromatography unit for fatty acid analysis and elementary calculations. As such in this paper we attempt to spell out in detail the theoretical basis and the methods of application drawing specific examples. Using the present method it is possible to measure the fate of individual fatty acids towards desaturation, elongation and oxidation and calculate the elongase, Δ-6 desaturase and Δ-5 desaturase activities.

The perceived employability of ex-prisoners and offenders

A large-scale study was conducted to examine the perceived employability of ex-prisoners and offenders. Four participant groups comprising 596 (50.4%) employers, 234 (19.8%) employment service workers, 176 (14.9%) corrections workers, and 175 (14.8%) prisoners and offenders completed a questionnaire assessing the likelihood of a hypothetical job seeker's both obtaining and maintaining employment; the importance of specific skills and characteristics to employability; and the likelihood that ex-prisoners, offenders, and the general workforce exhibit these skills and characteristics. Apart from people with an intellectual or psychiatric disability, those with a criminal background were rated as being less likely than other disadvantaged groups to obtain and maintain employment. In addition, ex-prisoners were rated as being less likely than offenders and the general workforce to exhibit the skills and characteristics relevant to employability. Implications for the preparation and support of ex-prisoners and offenders into employment are discussed, together with broader community-wide initiatives to promote reintegration.

The impact of shift-work and organizational climate on health outcomes in nurses

Shift workers have a higher rate of negative health outcomes than day shift workers. Few studies however, have examined the role of difference in workplace environment between shifts itself on such health measures. This study investigated variation in organizational climate across different types of shift work and health outcomes in nurses. Participants (n = 142) were nursing staff from a metropolitan Melbourne hospital. Demographic items elicited the type of shift worked, while the Work Environment Scale and the General Health Questionnaire measured organizational climate and health respectively. Analysis supported the hypotheses that different organizational climates occurred across different shifts, and that different organizational climate factors predicted poor health outcomes. Shift work alone was not found to predict health outcomes. Specifically, permanent night shift workers had significantly lower coworker cohesion scores compared with rotating day and evening shift workers and significantly higher managerial control scores compared with day shift workers. Further, coworker cohesion and involvement were found to be significant predictors of somatic problems. These findings suggest that differences in organizational climate between shifts accounts for the variation in health outcomes associated with shift work. Therefore, increased workplace cohesion and involvement, and decreased work pressure, may mitigate the negative health outcomes of shift workers.

School and anaemia prevention: current reality and opportunities - a Tanzanian case study

Iron deficiency anaemia is highly endemic in rural areas of Tanzania and in many developing countries. Its prevention among school children requires greater dissemination of knowledge of anaemia among children, teachers, parents and the general community. Associated improvements in the hygienic status of domestic and school environments are also often required. One-hundred-and-thirty-one anaemic children, 90 parents and 76 teachers were interviewed to ascertain their understanding of anaemia. Most children and parents had little knowledge of the symptoms, causes and prevention of anaemia. In addition to their iron-deficient diets, more than half of the children went to school without something to eat at breakfast and during school hours. However, parents and teachers were willing to work together to provide meals for the children. Poor sanitation in the children's homes and in schools was a little recognized factor which could pose a serious risk of anaemia. In addition, inadequate sanitation facilities and poor quality of physical environment prevailed both in the children's homes and in schools. The findings suggest the need for the establishment of a health-promoting schools network to provide a comprehensive framework for health promotion in schools as well as in homes in Tanzania and in other developing countries. Schools can be an ideal setting to positively influence a community's health status. Partnerships among teachers, parents and the wider community are required to identify, prioritize and ameliorate health problems.

"As long as it doesn't spill over into class": harms arising from students` alcohol use, and the role of policy in reducing them

While there is considerable evidence about the prevalence of student alcohol use, little empirical work has examined the range and level of exposure to alcohol-related risks facing student populations, and the views of key stakeholders about these. This study was conducted at a large multi-campus university in order to gauge the scale and severity of students’ alcohol-related problems, and ways in which these may be mitigated. Student perspectives on campus based policy making with respect to alcohol were also canvassed. This study utilised a range of evaluative instruments, including standardised questionnaire protocols, structured interviews and focus groups. Data gained from students showed a large level of exposure to alcohol-related harm, and staff informants reported student harms such as drink-driving, interpersonal aggression, social nuisance, inadequate security, sexually risky behaviour, and physical malaise. As a group, students seem receptive to campus-based policies that have a harm reduction focus, but are less supportive of institutionalised measures aimed at the student body. Given the divergence of views about the harms arising from student drinking, and a general repudiation of institutional policy measures which may lessen these, the development of harm-reducing policy on alcohol remains challenging.

Rural sports and recreational injuries in Australia: what do we know?

Objective: It is widely recognised that individuals residing in regional or rural areas have poorer health outcomes than those from metropolitan areas. Factors associated with these poorer health outcomes include geographical isolation, population declines, limited health care provision and higher levels of inactivity compared to urban areas. The mental, social and physical health of individuals and communities in rural areas can be improved through active participation in sport and recreation activities. Unfortunately, participation in such activities can potentially lead to injury. There is a suggestion that there is an increased risk of sports injuries in rural areas due to the lack of health professionals and coaching personnel, fewer available volunteers to organise and deliver sport, and the general attitude towards injuries in rural settings.

Results: There is very limited information about the number and types of injuries sustained during participation in sports activities in rural and regional settings. This is largely related to a lack of formal sporting structures and support mechanisms including research funding and trained personnel.

Conclusion: A range of factors need to be implemented to improve safety for sporting and recreational participants in these areas. These include improved monitoring of injury occurrence, stronger promotion of safety initiatives and wider implementation of education strategies.

Health risk behaviours and health care needs among people with psychiatric illness

This paper presents findings from two studies. Study 1 explored differences between people with psychiatric illness (PPI) (N=144) and the general population (N=151) in levels of low-fat diet, exercise and smoking. Study 2 investigated barriers and health care needs of PPI (N=60). The prevalence of overweight, cigarette smoking and sedentary lifestyle were significantly greater among PPI than the general population. Major predictors were limited social support, knowledge of correct dietary principles, lower self-efficacy, psychiatric symptomatology and various psychotropic drugs. The findings demonstrated that PPI over-used medical services but under-used preventive services due to inaccessibility, lower satisfaction and knowledge of services.