Detecting range shifts among Australian fishes in response to climate change

One of the most obvious and expected impacts of climate change is a shift in the distributional range of organisms, which could have considerable ecological and economic consequences. Australian waters are hotspots for climate-induced environmental changes; here, we review these potential changes and their apparent and potential implications for freshwater, estuarine and marine fish. Our meta-analysis detected 300 papers globally on 'fish' and 'range shifts', with ∼7% being from Australia. Of the Australian papers, only one study exhibited definitive evidence of climate-induced range shifts, with most studies focussing instead on future predictions. There was little consensus in the literature regarding the definition of 'range', largely because of populations having distributions that fluctuate regularly. For example, many marine populations have broad dispersal of offspring (causing vagrancy). Similarly, in freshwater and estuarine systems, regular environmental changes (e.g. seasonal, ENSO cycles not related to climate change) cause expansion and contraction of populations, which confounds efforts to detect range 'shifts'. We found that increases in water temperature, reduced freshwater flows and changes in ocean currents are likely to be the key drivers of climate-induced range shifts in Australian fishes. Although large-scale frequent and rigorous direct surveys of fishes across their entire distributional ranges, especially at range edges, will be essential to detect range shifts of fishes in response to climate change, we suggest careful co-opting of fisheries, museum and other regional databases as a potential, but imperfect alternative. © 2011 CSIRO Open Access.

Predicting the likely response of data-poor ecosystems to climate change using space-for-time substitution across domains

Predicting ecological response to climate change is often limited by a lack of relevant local data from which directly applicable mechanistic models can be developed. This limits predictions to qualitative assessments or simplistic rules of thumb in data-poor regions, making management of the relevant systems difficult. We demonstrate a method for developing quantitative predictions of ecological response in data-poor ecosystems based on a space-for-time substitution, using distant, well-studied systems across an inherent climatic gradient to predict ecological response. Changes in biophysical data across the spatial gradient are used to generate quantitative hypotheses of temporal ecological responses that are then tested in a target region. Transferability of predictions among distant locations, the novel outcome of this method, is demonstrated via simple quantitative relationships that identify direct and indirect impacts of climate change on physical, chemical and ecological variables using commonly available data sources. Based on a limited subset of data, these relationships were demonstrably plausible in similar yet distant (>2000 km) ecosystems. Quantitative forecasts of ecological change based on climate-ecosystem relationships from distant regions provides a basis for research planning and informed management decisions, especially in the many ecosystems for which there are few data. This application of gradient studies across domains - to investigate ecological response to climate change - allows for the quantification of effects on potentially numerous, interacting and complex ecosystem components and how they may vary, especially over long time periods (e.g. decades). These quantitative and integrated long-term predictions will be of significant value to natural resource practitioners attempting to manage data-poor ecosystems to prevent or limit the loss of ecological value. The method is likely to be applicable to many ecosystem types, providing a robust scientific basis for estimating likely impacts of future climate change in ecosystems where no such method currently exists.

Future landscapes in South-eastern Australia : the role of protected areas and biolinks in adaptation to climate change

The extent and rapidity of global climate change is the major novel threatening process to biodiversity in the 21 st century. Globally, numerous studies suggest movement of biota to higher latitudes and altitudes with increasing empirical -evidence emerging. As biota responds to the direct and consequent effects of climate change the potential to profoundly affect natural systems (including the reserve system) of south-eastern Australia is becoming evident. Climate change is projected to accelerate major environmental drivers such as drought, fire and flood regimes. Is the reserve system sufficient for biodiversity conservation under a changing climate? Australia is topographically flat, biologically mega-diverse with high species endemism, and has the driest and most variable climate of any inhabited continent. Whilst the north-south orientation and aftitude gradient of eastern Australia's forests and woodlands provides some resilience to projected climatic change, this has been eroded since European settlement, particularly in the cool-moist Bassian zone of the south-east. Following settlement, massive land-use change for agriculture and forestry caused widespread loss and fragmentation of habitats; becoming geriatric in agricultural landscapes and artificially young in forests. The reserve system persists as an archipelago of ecological islands surrounded by land uses of varying compatibility with conservation and vulnerable to global warming. The capacity for biota to adapt is limited by habitat availability. The extinction risk is exacerbated. Re-examination of earlier analysis of ecological connectivity through biolink zones confirms biolinks as an appropriate risk management response within a broader suite of measures. Areas not currently in the reserve system may be critical to the value and ecological function of biological assets of the reserve system as these assets change. Ecological need and the rise of ecosystem services, combined with changing socio-economic drivers of land-use and social values that supported the expansion of the reserve system, all suggest biolink zones represent a new, necessary and viable multi-functional landscape. This paper explores some of the key ecological elements for restoration within biolink zones (and landscapes at large) particularly through currently agricultural landscapes.

A societal knowledge management system : harnessing indigenous wisdom to build sustainable predictors for adaptation to climate change

As the climate changes globally time-honoured climate in a region may change and shift to another region. Consequently, local predictors of climate may no longer apply to the area where they were born, but may be invaluable in new regions where previously reliable predictors have become outmoded This paper is set on the proposition thaI traditional (indigenous) know/edge can be a strategic source in adapting to climate change, in these changing times. The research reported in this paper takes the Societal Knowledge Management approach where knowledge that rests within local communities, is harnessed to inform local communities and scientists regarding climate change impacts, so as to adapt to them accurately. A phased study was conducted that aimed at acquiring, synthesising and disseminating traditional knowledge regarding change in monsoon patterns in India. Traditional wisdom prevalent among fhe myriad communities of India, was collected, collated and classified into knowledge spheres such as Bio-Indicators, Wind Movement, Atmospheric Pal/ems, Astrological Methods, Festivals and Rituals, Direction, Characteristics of the Rain, Characteristics of Celestial Bodies etc and incorporaled into a knowledge portal, which is the basis for building the Societal Knowledge Management System (SKM). Subsequently, the SKM is to be harmonised with scientific predictors on seasonal weather patterns will allow researchers to identify if the existing indicators and monsoon pattems are subject to change, and if so how. Research in progress is aimed at integrating the knowledge with modern science and disseminating this knowledge through local knowledge centres, at village levels. Furthermore, this study is to be replicated in Australia, by harnessing indigenous knowledge, to build the SKM for Australia that could assist in building a better understanding of the factors that impact the environment, methods of building sustainable predictors for climate and approaches for adapting the climate changes. The research reported is expected to inform policy makers, scientists, governance institutions as well as researchers regarding the applicability of indigenous knowledge in building sustainable predictors for adaptation to climate change in the two countries cited and can be extended into other countries.

A predictive model of avian natal dispersal distance provides prior information for investigating response to landscape change

1. Informative Bayesian priors can improve the precision of estimates in ecological studies or estimate parameters for which little or no information is available. While Bayesian analyses are becoming more popular in ecology, the use of strongly informative priors remains rare, perhaps because examples of informative priors are not readily available in the published literature.
2. Dispersal distance is an important ecological parameter, but is difficult to measure and estimates are scarce. General models that provide informative prior estimates of dispersal distances will therefore be valuable.
3. Using a world-wide data set on birds, we develop a predictive model of median natal dispersal distance that includes body mass, wingspan, sex and feeding guild. This model predicts median dispersal distance well when using the fitted data and an independent test data set, explaining up to 53% of the variation.
4. Using this model, we predict a priori estimates of median dispersal distance for 57 woodland-dependent bird species in northern Victoria, Australia. These estimates are then used to investigate the relationship between dispersal ability and vulnerability to landscape-scale changes in habitat cover and fragmentation.
5. We find evidence that woodland bird species with poor predicted dispersal ability are more vulnerable to habitat fragmentation than those species with longer predicted dispersal distances, thus improving the understanding of this important phenomenon.
6. The value of constructing informative priors from existing information is also demonstrated. When used as informative priors for four example species, predicted dispersal distances reduced the 95% credible intervals of posterior estimates of dispersal distance by 8-19%. Further, should we have wished to collect information on avian dispersal distances and relate it to species' responses to habitat loss and fragmentation, data from 221 individuals across 57 species would have been required to obtain estimates with the same precision as those provided by the general model.

A predictive model of avian natal dispersal distance provides prior information for investigating response to landscape change

1. Informative Bayesian priors can improve the precision of estimates in ecological studies or estimate parameters for which little or no information is available. While Bayesian analyses are becoming more popular in ecology, the use of strongly informative priors remains rare, perhaps because examples of informative priors are not readily available in the published literature.

2. Dispersal distance is an important ecological parameter, but is difficult to measure and estimates are scarce. General models that provide informative prior estimates of dispersal distances will therefore be valuable.

3. Using a world-wide data set on birds, we develop a predictive model of median natal dispersal distance that includes body mass, wingspan, sex and feeding guild. This model predicts median dispersal distance well when using the fitted data and an independent test data set, explaining up to 53% of the variation.

4. Using this model, we predict a priori estimates of median dispersal distance for 57 woodland-dependent bird species in northern Victoria, Australia. These estimates are then used to investigate the relationship between dispersal ability and vulnerability to landscape-scale changes in habitat cover and fragmentation.

5. We find evidence that woodland bird species with poor predicted dispersal ability are more vulnerable to habitat fragmentation than those species with longer predicted dispersal distances, thus improving the understanding of this important phenomenon.

6. The value of constructing informative priors from existing information is also demonstrated. When used as informative priors for four example species, predicted dispersal distances reduced the 95% credible intervals of posterior estimates of dispersal distance by 8-19%. Further, should we have wished to collect information on avian dispersal distances and relate it to species' responses to habitat loss and fragmentation, data from 221 individuals across 57 species would have been required to obtain estimates with the same precision as those provided by the general model.

Understanding coastal urban and peri‐urban indigenous people’s vulnerability and adaptive capacity to climate change

This brief presentation will commence to address a number of emerging questions that are underpinned by the current NCCARF research project: Understanding Urban and Peri‐urban Indigenous People’s vulnerability and adaptive capacity to Climate Change. In terms of climate change adaptation barriers, options and priorities, what are the major considerations for indigenous communities residing in coastal peri-urban and urban places that may differ from those of their non-indigenous counterparts and possibly from Indigenous communities living away from the coasts? It will speculate on whether these considerations can be addressed through existing planning and management frameworks.

Indigenous climate change adaptation perspectives : understanding urban and peri‐urban indigenous people’s vulnerability and adaptive capacity to climate change

The National Climate change Adaptation Research Plan: Indigenous Communities (2011) highlighted that research on Indigenous communities and climate change, including the variables of impacts, vulnerability and adaptive capacity and adaptation has been limited. While most research has focused on identifying the biophysical impacts of climate change, a minority of studies have considered the Indigenous knowledge and peoples whom continue to reside in Australia and care for; ‘country’;. The report concluded that “there is a need for research that expands knowledge about these and other dimensions of Indigenous adaptation to climate change.“ This paper reviews work in progress on a NCCARF funded research project that is seeking to investigate select coastal urban and per-urban Indigenous community vulnerability to, and capacity for climate change adaptation. Working collaboratively with Indigenous communities resident in Adelaide, Heywood/Portland, Mornington Peninsula, Stradbroke Island and Brisbane, it seeks to explore and articulate strategies that enhance Indigenous capacity to climate change including possible protocols, frameworks, processes and procedures that may lead directly to a more informed appreciation of what is transpiring around Australia’s coastal per-urban regions for their Indigenous communities who still hold strong bonds and responsibilities to their ‘country’.

Words, oral libraries and environmental responses : an Australian indigenous perspective to climate change adaptation

Climate change adaptation and mitigation continues to be a prevalent discourse in this country and internationally in both the sciences and the arts. While various types and degrees of change are evident, the quantification of these changes including their scope and diversity have challenged conventional sciences. This is demonstrated in their inability to succinctly answer key questions about change including the degree of change and associated patterns and consequences. Most of this discourse is nested in a temporal band comprising the last 100-200 years of data and evidence, and very much informed by Western science perspectives and protocols. Little attempt has been made to engage with Australian Indigenous communities whom possess environmental knowledge of some 10,000-100,000 years albeit embedded in their artistic and oral narrative 'histories'. This paper explores the role and values that Australian Aboriginals, the Indigenous peoples of the Australian content, can offer in shedding new light on this discourse While focusing upon a cross-peri-urban Indigenous investigation, it examines this discourse though the lens of their words, terms, sentences as a vehicle to better understand a longitudinal perspective about climate change adaptation pertinent to Australia.

Design with nature : a proposed model for coastal settlements in Australia adapting to climate change and extreme weather events

The Australian coast is rich in history and is scattered with coastal settlements amongst a contrasting landscape with infinite visual and ecological diversity. These attributes provide the opportunity to create sustainable and resilient settlements, linking the wholeness of a place to the foundation of living in harmony with nature. On the contrary the coastal regions of Australia are facing dynamic changes of population growth including the looming impact of a changing climate. Acknowledging these challenges, the Australian Government highlighted that one of the key requirements for a sustainable future is to establish sustainable settlements that are resilient against the impacts of climate change. Recent government studies and reports highlighted various possible impacts to the Australian coast and regional settlements due to sea level rise with associated coastal recession, extreme weather events, flooding, and prolonged heat waves. Various adaptation frameworks are proposed to deal with this issue, but very few consider the relationship between ecological systems and human built environments. The resilience planning of settlements must consider the co-evolution of human and nature under future climate effects. This paper is thus seeking answers to the question: How can the theoretical principles of Design with Nature (McHarg, 1967) and The Nature of Order (Alexander, 1980) provide for input to a adaptation model for settlements along the coast? Reflecting on a literature review of these two well established theories, the author select key principles from both as input to a ecological design based adaptation model for coastal settlements, which establishes a system of unfolding steps to create sustainable communities that connect with the landscape, and are resilient against future impacts of change.