Contemporaneous intra-day volume, option, and futures volatility transmissions across parallel markets

The primary objective of this article is to investigate volatility transmission across three parallel markets operating on the Sydney Futures Exchange (SFE), both within and out of sample. Half-hourly observations are sampled from transaction data for the share price index (SPI) futures, SPI futures options, and 90-day bank accepted bill (BAB) futures markets, and the analysis is carried out using the simultaneous volatility (SVL) system of equations as well as competing volatility models. The results confirm the poor ability of GARCH models to fit intraday data. This study also applies an artificial nesting procedure to evaluate the out-of-sample volatility forecasts. Implied volatility has very limited (if any) predictive power when evaluated in isolation, whereas the SVL model with implied volatility embedded provides incremental information relative to competing model forecasts.

A model of the Australia-US exchange rate

This paper develops a model of exchange rate determination within an error correction framework. The intention is to identify both long and short term determinants that can be used to forecast the AUD/US exchange rate. The paper identifies a set of significant variables associated with exchange rate movements over a twenty year period from 1984 to 2004. Specifically, the overnight interest rate differential, Australia's foreign trade-weighted exposure to commodity prices as well as exchange rate volatility are variables identified that are able explain movements in the AUDIUS dollar relationship. An error correction model is subsequently constructed that incorporates an equilibrium correction term, a short-term interest rate differential variable, a commodity price variable and a proxy for exchange rate volatility. The model is then used to forecast out of sample and is found to dominate a naIve random walk model based on three different metrics.

Flying the coop : why is the move out of home proving unsustainable?

Changing social trends indicate that more young Australians are electing to live at home longer. Residing in the parental home is the most common mode of living for those aged in their 20s, with recent data indicating more than 30 per cent decisively remain in this arrangement with their parents.

While there are obviously still those who decide to move out, this housing arrangement seems to be proving unsustainable; many young adults are returning home to reside with their parents after time spent on their own in a trend increasingly referred to as the ‘boomerang’ effect.

This paper reviews the available literature on young adults’ living arrangements, identifying those factors implicated both in the leaving home process and the likelihood a young adult will return home after previously moving out. In highlighting how much of this earlier research has relied on the use of statistical methods, the paper aims to justify the need for the proposed study- a contemporary exploration of generation Y Australians’ experiences of home returning.

The study, guided by an ecological theoretical perspective, will utilise a qualitative methodology to investigate the reasons why young adults are experiencing difficulty sustaining their move to independent living. In-depth interviews will be conducted in Melbourne with young adults aged between 20 and 30 years who currently reside in the parental home after living independently for four months or more. It is anticipated the study sample will include both males and females who are currently engaged in, or have previously completed, tertiary study.

These interviews will be analysed and through the emergent themes, will provide a clearer insight into the ‘boomerang’ generation- a group of young adults who will become increasingly more common in light of the current uncertainty surrounding finances, employment and housing markets. The implications of this research will therefore be significant for those concerned with the future housing decisions of Australian society.

Pre-service teachers’ perceptions of the support, challenges and opportunities associated with teaching out-of-field

While pre-service teacher (PST) education programs prepare teachers for certain specialisations, the reality is that many secondary teachers will be expected to teach out-of-field, especially in Australia. Do universities have a role to play in preparing teachers for out-of-field teaching? At the very least, they should aim to produce adaptable, well-informed, capable teachers. This project uses case study methodology to examine teacher educator and PST perceptions relating to the role that universities play in preparing teachers for a reality that is likely to include out-of-field teaching. This paper focuses on PST perceptions of the associated expected support, challenges and opportunities. A small PST survey sample and PST interviews have shown that there is general positivity towards this practice, around the opportunities that can emerge, and an expectation of support accessibility; but diversity surrounds the challenges, suggesting a variation in respondents’ capacity to cope with the challenges that might emerge. Implications for teacher education are discussed.

Economic evaluation plan (EEP) for a very early rehabilitation trial (AVERT): an international trial to compare the costs and cost-effectiveness of commencing out of bed standing and walking training (very early mobilization) within 24 h of stroke onset

RATIONALE: A key objective of A Very Early Rehabilitation Trial is to determine if the intervention, very early mobilisation following stroke, is cost-effective. Resource use data were collected to enable an economic evaluation to be undertaken and a plan for the main economic analyses was written prior to the completion of follow up data collection. AIM AND HYPOTHESIS: To report methods used to collect resource use data, pre-specify the main economic evaluation analyses and report other intended exploratory analyses of resource use data. SAMPLE SIZE ESTIMATES: Recruitment to the trial has been completed. A total of 2,104 participants from 56 stroke units across three geographic regions participated in the trial. METHODS AND DESIGN: Resource use data were collected prospectively alongside the trial using standardised tools. The primary economic evaluation method is a cost-effectiveness analysis to compare resource use over 12 months with health outcomes of the intervention measured against a usual care comparator. A cost-utility analysis is also intended. STUDY OUTCOME: The primary outcome in the cost-effectiveness analysis will be favourable outcome (modified Rankin Scale score 0-2) at 12 months. Cost-utility analysis will use health-related quality of life, reported as quality-adjusted life years gained over a 12 month period, as measured by the modified Rankin Scale and the Assessment of Quality of Life. DISCUSSION: Outcomes of the economic evaluation analysis will inform the cost-effectiveness of very early mobilisation following stroke when compared to usual care. The exploratory analysis will report patterns of resource use in the first year following stroke.

Still plucking figures out of the air? Markarian and the affirmation of the instinctive synthesis

The High Court of Australia recently had the opportunity to reconsider the appropriate sentencing methodology to be adopted in the sentencing of offenders under Australian criminal law in the case of Markarian v The Queen. The High Court had to decide whether to continue with the instinctive synthesis approach to sentencing or a process that exposed in greater clarity the basis upon which sentencing was to occur. Ultimately, a majority of the Court favoured the continuance of the instinctive synthesis approach to sentencing in criminal cases. The article will consider the decision in Markarian and the implications that it will have for the sentencing of offenders in the States and Territories of Australia.

Bringing shared values out of the shadows

As part of its wider promotion of a world that is peaceful and tolerant, the United Nations declared 2005 the International Year of Sport and Physical Education. At the fore of the UN's proclamation was recognition of the important role sport and PE play in nurturing the health and harmony of society. Sport and PE, the UN declared, provide important nodes for social connection around which shared values and understandings can be formed. In the wake of the UN's endorsement of the role that sport and PE can play in fostering social and emotional development, it is more important that ever that we reflect on and refine our practices towards this end. This paper draws on two research narratives to illustrate how easily this potential can be undermined. Indeed, behind some of the wonderful opportunities for connection that exist through a participation in PE and sport exists a dark shadow of alienation and oppression. The challenge raised through this paper centres on the need for PE teachers and coaches to work deliberately and strategically towards the cultivation of inclusive, tolerant and responsible forms of participation, and not leave their development to chance.

Reconstituting the invisible out of structure and repetition: a walk through diary V3.2.

This presentation will discuss the production of an interactive personal diary constructed in digital form as an interactive CD-Rom: Diary V 3.2. This diary was conceived as a digital version of the family photo album of the artist's nuclear family, which unfortunately disintegrated during 4 years of the diary's making. As a result Diary V 3.2 became more a documentation of the mood and state of mind of the maker than the family it began to focus on. It acted more as a trace or a remnant of mood, an artifact of loss. This was communicated not so much through narrative but ideas of loss and erasure. Another layer to this work concerns the migration of images, technique from the old analogue technology to the new digital technology which can act as a replay of the migrant experience.

Getting out of deficit: pedagogies of reconnection

The fact that children growing up in poverty are likely to be in the lower ranges of achievement on standardised literacy tests is not a new phenomenon. Internationally there are a myriad of intervention and remedial programmes designed to address this problem with a range of effects. Frequently, sustainable reforms are curtailed by deficit views of families and children growing up in poverty. This article describes an ongoing research study entitled "Teachers Investigate Unequal Literacy Outcomes: Cross-Generational Perspectives", which made teacher researchers central in examining this long-standing dilemma. It outlines the research design and rationale, and analyses how two early career teachers worked their ways out of deficit analyses of two children they were most worried about. It argues that disrupting deficit discourses and re-designing new pedagogical repertoires to reconnect with children's lifeworlds is a long-term project that can best be achieved in reciprocal research relationships with teachers.

Out-of-home food outlets and area deprivation: case study in Glasgow, UK

Background
There is a popular belief that out-of-home eating outlets, which typically serve energy dense food, may be more commonly found in more deprived areas and that this may contribute to higher rates of obesity and related diseases in such areas.

Methods
We obtained a list of all 1301 out-of-home eating outlets in Glasgow, UK, in 2003 and mapped these at unit postcode level. We categorised them into quintiles of area deprivation using the 2004 Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation and computed mean density of types of outlet (restaurants, fast food restaurants, cafes and takeaways), and all types combined, per 1000 population. We also estimated odds ratios for the presence of any outlets in small areas within the quintiles.

Results
The density of outlets, and the likelihood of having any outlets, was highest in the second most affluent quintile (Q2) and lowest in the second most deprived quintile (Q4). Mean outlets per 1,000 were 4.02 in Q2, 1.20 in Q4 and 2.03 in Q5. With Q2 as the reference, Odds Ratios for having any outlets were 0.52 (CI 0.32–0.84) in Q1, 0.50 (CI 0.31 – 0.80) in Q4 and 0.61 (CI 0.38 – 0.98) in Q5. Outlets were located in the City Centre, West End, and along arterial roads.

Conclusion
In Glasgow those living in poorer areas are not more likely to be exposed to out-of-home eating outlets in their neighbourhoods. Health improvement policies need to be based on empirical evidence about the location of fast food outlets in specific national and local contexts, rather than on popular 'factoids'.

Food and activity in out of school hours care in Victoria

Objective: To describe characteristics of the Victorian out of school hours care (OSHC) sector to assess its potential role in promoting healthy lifestyles to children and their families.

Design: Written questionnaires were sent to 1100 Victorian OSHC programs to collect information about the services, foods and activities offered to children, the training and resources utilised by staff and the type of information sent home to parents/guardians.

Subjects: A total of 426 Victorian OSHC coordinators completed questionnaires in the present descriptive study (39% response rate).

Setting: Out of school hours care provides care for 5–12 years olds before school, after school and/or during school holidays.

Results: Over 80% of coordinators reported offering fruit, breads, cereals, and milk and dairy products. One-third offer vegetables as part of meals or snacks. One-third reported offering cakes, biscuits and/or slices, and chips and/or pastries. About 17% reported offering water, whereas 24% reported offering cordial/soft drinks and fruit juice. Cooking was offered as an after-school activity by about half of those surveyed. Active games were common (62%) as were indoor active games and sports (36%). Sedentary activities were also commonplace (37–51%). Only about 30% of OSHC coordinators had participated in nutrition and/or physical activity training in the previous two years. Few OSHC programs sent home health information to parents/guardians.

Conclusion and application: Opportunities exist to help Victorian OSHC programs with nutrition and physical activity information, resources and training. Although the findings of the present study are specific to Victoria, they highlight the potential role of the growing OSHC sector to help improve the health of Australian children.

Out of pocket costs to stroke patients during the first year after stroke - results from the North East Melbourne stroke incidence study

Non-reimbursed ‘out of pocket’ costs to stroke patients have not been included in existing cost of illness studies. We aimed to determine the nature and magnitude of ‘out of pocket’ costs to stroke patients during the first year after stroke. ‘Out of pocket’ costs during the first year after stroke were documented for 165 persons registered in a community-based stroke incidence study during 1996/1997. Virtually all cases reported some ‘out of pocket’ costs. The average cost over 12 months was A$1110. The highest cost items were home modifications, aids and equipment. The most commonly incurred expense was for prescription medications. Total ‘out of pocket’ costs incurred by first-ever stroke patients in Australia in 1997 were estimated to be A$29 million or 5% of the total cost of stroke. The majority of ‘out of pocket’ costs relate to post-acute care aimed at minimising disability and handicap rather than to ‘acute’ healthcare.

Monetary models of exchange rates and the random walk

Three alternative monetary models of exchange rate are tested using data on the Italian lira - US doIIar exchange rate. II is shown that up to the early 1990s these economic models perform better than the random walk model in out-of-sample forecasts.

Youth and sexualities : pleasure, subversion and insubordination in and out of schools

These cutting-edge international essays challenge dominant narratives of queer youth predicated on oppression and victimization. As school systems address the emergence of Gay-Straight Alliances and calls to provide equal educational access, researchers, educators and youth workers are paying increasing attention to sexuality, gender and schooling. Yet present discourses are limited to liberal understandings of tolerance, safety, and equity that are defined by a separation of "queer" and "normal." This text documents and offers radical interpretations of the creativity of queer youth in challenging existing practices. Interdisciplinary analyses offer multiple vantage points for reconceptualizing adolescent sexual subjectivities and institutional and cultural practices.