Comparing different economic linkages among commodity futures

Gasoline (GA) and kerosene (KO) are extracted from crude oil (CO), such that the three fuel commodities share a chemical link. On the other hand, GA also shares an industrial link with natural rubber (NR) and palladium (PA) as complementary commodities that are heavily consumed by the automobile industry. We contrast the information content embedded in the two economic linkages. Focusing on TOCOM futures contracts written on the five commodities and centering on GA, we confirm that incremental information provided by either CO, KO or NR, PA over a buy-and-hold strategy and a naive forecast, are both statistically and economically significant. While the chemical link forecast is more profitable, a double-link forecast generated from a VECM with two cointegrating vectors (KO-GA and GANR prices) outperforms both single-link forecasts based on risk-adjusted profit net of transaction costs. Further comparisons against the profitability of commodity-based momentum strategies documented in Erb and Harvey (2006) and Miffre and Rallis (2007) show that the double-link forecast holds its own against the most profitable of the 75 momentum strategies considered. This strongly suggests that not only are there incremental profits to be gained from harnessing and combining economic links among commodity futures, the resultant incremental profits are economically significant against other proven commodity-based trading strategies in the existing literature.

Futures for Australian curriculum studies: metaphors, genres and complicated conversations

My specific brief for the conference presentation on which this essay is based was to speak from the standpoint of a 'curriculum theorist'. However, I rarely use the terms 'curriculum theory' or 'curriculum theorising' other than in the company of US and Canadian colleagues. I prefer to speak of 'curriculum inquiry' or 'curriculum work' and I think of my work as a university teacher and researcher as being directed towards understanding curriculum. From this standpoint I interpret the theme of this Point and Counterpoint, 'Futures for Australian Curriculum', as a focus for speculation on the possible and desirable ways in which the arts of curriculum inquiry can be developed, tested and renewed. In other words, how can we sustain rigorous, vigorous and generative forms of curriculum work?
I will respond to this question by referring to three artefacts of Australian curriculum studies, the first two of which come from the Australian
Curriculum Studies Association's (ACSA) own material history; the third is (arguably) the major synoptic text of North American 'curriculum theory' published during the past decade. I will use these artefacts to illustrate three key issues concerning futures in curriculum inquiry, namely:
• the significance of metaphor;
• questions about genre and a renewed role for
the arts in our work;
• the idea of 'complicated conversation'.

Lipid and fatty acid digestibility of three oil types in the Australian shortfin eel, Anguilla australis

The lipid and fatty acid digestibilities of three semi-purified, isonitrogenous (48.9–50.8% protein) and isocalorific (19.1–20.8 kJ g⁻¹) diets, in which the lipid source was either cod liver oil (CLO), linseed oil (LO) or sunflower oil (SFO), were estimated in the Australian shortfin eel (Anguilla australis) using chromic oxide as an external marker. Apparent percent protein and energy digestibilities of the diets were not significantly (P>0.05) affected by the lipid source, but the lipid digestibility was. The percent apparent lipid digestibility was lowest in the LO diet (90.2±0.6) and highest in the CLO diet (95.6±0.2).

Not all the fatty acids present in any one diet were recovered in the faecal samples. In diets with CLO, only three saturates (out of five), five monoenes and six (out of 11) PUFAs were detected in faecal samples. With all the diets, 20:0 and 22:0, and none of the n−6 HUFA were detected in the faecal samples. The digestibility of all the fatty acids, except 18:3n−3, was lowest in the diet with LO, and significantly so (P>0.05) from the other diets.

In shortfin eel, there was a trend for the digestibility of saturated fatty acids of diets with the animal oil as the lipid source to decrease with increasing chain length, and in diets with vegetable oil to increase initially and then decrease. A somewhat comparable trend was also evident in respect of monoenes.

When the digestibility of different categories of fatty acids is considered, the digestibility of saturates, monoenes, unsaturates, n−6, PUFA, HUFA and total fatty acid digestibilities of LO diet were the lowest, and differed significantly (P<0.05) from those of the CLO and SFO diets, except in the case of n−3 fatty acids.

Characterising vehicle emissions from the burning of biodiesel made from vegetable oil

Biodiesel manufactured from canola oil was blended with diesel and used as fuel in two diesel vehicles. This study aimed to test the emissions of diesel engines using blends of 100%, 80%, 60%, 40% , 20% biodiesel and 100% petroleum diesel, and characterise the particulate matter and gaseous emissions, with particular attention to levels of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) which are harmful to humans. A real time dust monitor was also used to monitor the continuous dust emissions during the entire testing cycle. The ECE(Euro 2) drive cycle was used for all emission tests. It was found that the particle concentration was up to 33% less when the engine burnt 100% biodiesel, compared to 100% diesel. Particle emission reduced with increased percentages of biodiesel in the fuel blends. Reductions of NOx, HC and CO were limited to about 10% when biodiesel was burned. Levels of CO2 emissions from the use of biodiesel and diesel were similar. Eighteen EPA priority PAHs were targeted, with only 6 species detected in the gaseous phase from the samples . 9 PAHs were detected in particulate phases at much lower levels than gaseous PAHs. Some marked reductions were observed for less toxic gaseous PAHs such as naphthalene when burning 100% biodiesel, but the particulate PAH emissions, which have more implications to adverse health effects, were virtually unchanged and did not show a statistically significant reduction. These findings are useful to gain an understanding of the emissions and environmental impacts of biodiesel.

Simultaneous volatility transmissions and spillover effects: U.S. and Hong Kong stock and futures markets

Contemporaneous transmission effects across volatilities of the Hong Kong Stock and Index futures markets and futures volume of trade are tested by employing a structural systems approach. Competing measures of volatility spillover, constructed from the overnight U.S. S&P500 index futures, are tested and found to impact on the Hong Kong asset return volatility and volume of trade patterns. The examples utilize intra-day 15-min sampled data from this medium-sized Asia Pacific equity and derivative exchange. Both the intra- and inter-day patterns in the Hong Kong market are allowed for in the estimation process.

Effects of dietary oil source on growth and fillet fatty Acid composition of Murray cod, Maccullochella peelii peelii

The Murray cod, an Australian native freshwater fish, supports a relatively small but increasing aquaculture industry in Australia. Presently, there are no dedicated commercial diets available for Murray cod; instead, nutritionally sub-standard feeds formulated for other species are commonly used. The aim of the present investigation was to assess the suitability of two plant based lipid sources, canola oil (CO) and linseed oil (LO), as alternatives to fish oil for juvenile Murray cod. Five iso-nitrogenous, iso-calorific, iso-lipidic semi-purified experimental diets were formulated with 17% lipid originating from 100% cod liver oil (FO), 100% canola oil, 100% linseed oil and 1 : 1 blends of canola and cod liver oil (CFO) and 1 : 1 blends of linseed and cod liver oil (LFO). Each of the diets was fed to apparent satiation twice daily to triplicate groups of 50 Murray cod with initial mean weights of 6.45 ± 1.59 g for 84 days at 22 °C. Final mean weight, specific growth rate and daily feed consumption were significantly higher for the FO and LFO treatments compared to the LO treatment. Feed conversion and protein efficiency ratios were not significantly different amongst treatments. Experimental diets containing vegetable oil and vegetable oil blend(s) had significantly higher concentrations of n-6 fatty acids, predominantly in the form of linoleic acid (LA), while n-3 fatty acids were present in significantly higher concentrations in LO and LFO treatments. The fatty acid composition of Murray cod fillet was reflective of the dietary lipid source. Fillet of fish fed the FO was highest in EPA (20:5n-3), ArA (20:4n-6) and DHA (22:6n-3). Fish fed the CO diet had high concentrations of oleic acid (OlA) (192.2 ± 10.5 mg g lipid− 1), while the fillet of Murray cod fed the LO diet was high in α-linolenic acid (LnA) (107.1 ± 6.7 mg g lipid− 1). The present study suggests that fish oil can be replaced by up to 100% with canola oil and by up to 50% with linseed oil in Murray cod diets with no significant effect on growth.

Modification of tissue fatty acid composition in Murray cod (Maccullochella peelii peelii, Mitchell) resulting from a shift from vegetable oil diets to a fish oil diet.

The dynamics of fatty acid composition modifications were examined in tissues of Murray cod fed diets containing fish oil (FO), canola oil (CO) and linseed oil (LO) for a 25-week period and subsequently transferred to a FO (finishing/wash-out) diet for a further 16 weeks. At the commencement of the wash-out period, following 25 weeks of vegetable oil substitution diets, the fatty acid compositions of Murray cod fillets were reflective of the respective diets. After transfer to the FO diet, differences decreased in quantity and in numerousness, resulting in a revert to the FO fatty acid composition. Changes in percentages of the fatty acids and total accumulation in the fillet could be described by exponential equations and demonstrated that major modifications occurred in the first days of the finishing period. A dilution model was tested to predict fatty acid composition. In spite of a general reliability of the model (Y=0.9234X+0.4260, R²=0.957, P<0.001, where X is the predicted percentage of fatty acid; Y the observed percentage of fatty acid), in some instances the regression comparing observed and predicted values was markedly different from the line of equity, indicating that the rate of change was higher than predicted (i.e. Y=0.4205X+1.191, R²=0.974, P<0.001, where X is the predicted percentage of α-linolenic acid; Y the observed percentage of α-linolenic acid). Ultimately, using the coefficient of distance (D), it was shown that the fatty acid composition of fish previously fed the vegetable oil diets returned to the average variability of the fillet fatty acid composition of Murray cod after 70 or 97 days (LO and CO respectively).

What about foresight literacy? Equipping students to engage in unknown futures

In education, there is much rhetoric about a school's capacity to prepare learners for 'the future'. For example, there have been 'Schools of the future', 'Lighthouse schools of the future' and many claims from schools around the world that their roles encompass 'educating students for the future' and developing 'citizens of the future'. However, as 'futures educators', the questions must be asked: 'whose future?' and 'what future?'. Considering texts which promote this educational premise require tools and philosophical understandings, in order to deconstruct and articulate the future for which we prepare our young. This paper describes the way in which foresight literacy can be developed through engagement with explicit futures education tools and concepts. It highlights a number of futures texts indiscriminately presented within culture and society, and exposes some of the ways in which foresight (futures) understandings can be achieved. This reading, writing and articulation of a multiplicity of futures is referred to as foresight literacy. This paper does not address the 'future of literacy', but rather the way in which futures education equips students to engage with texts assuming, and describing a future.

Doing futures: futures education and enactivism

In New Times (Hall, 1996), there has been much rhetoric about school’s role in equipping students for the future. Futures education, or futures pedagogy, provides an interdisciplinary approach in which alternative futures may be explored, designed and articulated. Enactivism, as a theory of learning, affirms my contention that it is not enough to talk about the future. Rather, I propose that education must act as an agent of change, in equipping teachers and students alike, to imagine, critique and create possible, preferable and probable futures. This paper, then, explores the co-emergence (Manturana & Varela, 1992) of an explicit futures dimension, and teaching and learning drawing upon case studies of practice in schools.

Futures now - teaching futures education

In the post-modern world, it has been said that there is now greater uncertainty in life than in any previous period, simply because so much has changed as a result of the speed of technological change.

From the educational view point, Futures education is a necessity as times continue to change, in regards to both the sustainability of the person and that of the environment. It is true that uncertainty will always remain an aspect of thinking about the future, however in order to make what is ahead more accessible to everyone, educators have a duty of care to their students to facilitate or educate in regards to tools, concepts and understandings which will help students to become world shapers, and shapers of their own personal futures. This must occur as part of ongoing educator training.