Predicting risk of suicide attempt using history of physical illnesses from electronic medical records

BACKGROUND: Although physical illnesses, routinely documented in electronic medical records (EMR), have been found to be a contributing factor to suicides, no automated systems use this information to predict suicide risk.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to quantify the impact of physical illnesses on suicide risk, and develop a predictive model that captures this relationship using EMR data.

METHODS: We used history of physical illnesses (except chapter V: Mental and behavioral disorders) from EMR data over different time-periods to build a lookup table that contains the probability of suicide risk for each chapter of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th Revision (ICD-10) codes. The lookup table was then used to predict the probability of suicide risk for any new assessment. Based on the different lengths of history of physical illnesses, we developed six different models to predict suicide risk. We tested the performance of developed models to predict 90-day risk using historical data over differing time-periods ranging from 3 to 48 months. A total of 16,858 assessments from 7399 mental health patients with at least one risk assessment was used for the validation of the developed model. The performance was measured using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

RESULTS: The best predictive results were derived (AUC=0.71) using combined data across all time-periods, which significantly outperformed the clinical baseline derived from routine risk assessment (AUC=0.56). The proposed approach thus shows potential to be incorporated in the broader risk assessment processes used by clinicians.

CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a novel approach to exploit the history of physical illnesses extracted from EMR (ICD-10 codes without chapter V-mental and behavioral disorders) to predict suicide risk, and this model outperforms existing clinical assessments of suicide risk.

Participation in physical activity : perception of women with a previous history of gestational diabetes

The aim was to explore the perceptions of physical activity among women with previous gestational diabetes mellitus, in the context of preventing Type 2 diabetes mellitus.

History of amenorrhoea compromises some of the exercise-induced benefits in cortical and trabecular bone in the peripheral and axial skeleton : a study in retired elite gymnasts

Background : Female gymnasts frequently present with overt signs of hypoestrogenism, such as late menarche or menstrual dysfunction. The objective was to investigate the impact of history of amenorrhoea on the exercise-induced skeletal benefits in bone geometry and volumetric density in retired elite gymnasts.
Subjects and methods

24 retired artistic gymnasts, aged 17–36 years, who had been training for at least 15 h/week at the peak of their career and had been retired for 3–18 years were recruited. They had not been engaged in more than 2 h/week of regular physical activity since retirement. Former gymnasts who reported history of amenorrhoea (‘AME’, n = 12: either primary or secondary amenorrhoea) were compared with former gymnasts (‘NO-AME’, n = 12) and controls (‘C’, n = 26) who did not report history of amenorrhoea. Bone mineral content (BMC), total bone area (ToA) and total volumetric density (ToD) were measured by pQCT at the radius and tibia (4% and 66%). Trabecular volumetric density (TrD) and bone strength index (BSI) were measured at the 4% sites. Cortical area (CoA), cortical thickness (CoTh), medullary area (MedA), cortical volumetric density (CoD), stress–strain index (SSI) and muscle and fat area were measured at the 66% sites. Spinal BMC, areal BMD and bone mineral apparent density (BMAD) were measured by DXA.
Results

Menarcheal age was delayed in AME when compared to NO-AME (16.4 ± 0.5 years vs. 13.3 ± 0.4 years, p < 0.001). No differences were detected between AME and C for height-adjusted spinal BMC, aBMD and BMAD, TrD and BSI at the distal radius and tibia, CoA at the proximal radius, whereas these parameters were greater in NO-AME than C (p < 0.05–0.005). AME had lower TrD and BSI at the distal radius, and lower spinal BMAD than NO-AME (p < 0.05) but they had greater ToA at the distal radius (p < 0.05).
Conclusion

Greater spinal BMC, aBMD and BMAD as well as trabecular volumetric density and bone strength in the peripheral skeleton were found in former gymnasts without a history of menstrual dysfunction but not in those who reported either primary or secondary amenorrhoea. History of amenorrhoea may have compromised some of the skeletal benefits associated with high-impact gymnastics training.

Natural history of hepatitis B in perinatally infected carriers

Objectives: To establish natural seroconversion rates and incidence of hepatic pathology in perinatally infected hepatitis B carriers.

Methods: Seventy three perinatally infected hepatitis B carriers identified through maternal screening were evaluated. Fifty three were born to parents from the Indian subcontinent, nine were Oriental, six were Afro-Caribbean, and five were white. Median follow up was 10.24 (range 2.02–20.16) years.

Results: Only three of the children followed up had cleared hepatitis B surface antigen during this period, and 30% of the children had seroconverted to anti-HBe. Seroconversions to anti-HBe were observed in Asian (18/50) and white (4/5) children, but not in Oriental or Afro-Caribbean children. More girls (40%) than boys (23%) had seroconverted, but the difference was not significant. All children were asymptomatic with normal physical examination, growth, and development. Almost half (48%) of the hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) positive children had normal hepatic transaminases and liver function. Thirty five liver biopsies were performed in children with active virus replication (HBeAg or hepatitis B virus DNA positive) who were being considered for antiviral treatment as part of a clinical trial and were scored using the Ishak method. Two thirds (62%) of the children had mild hepatitis, 60% had mild fibrosis, and 18% had moderate to severe fibrosis. There was a weak correlation between histological evidence of hepatitis and hepatic transaminase activity, implying that biochemical monitoring of hepatic disease activity may be ineffective.

Conclusions: These asymptomatic hepatitis B virus carrier children remain infectious in the medium to long term with notable liver pathology. They should receive antiviral treatment to reduce infectivity and to prevent further progression of liver disease. Hepatic transaminases alone are not a reliable marker of liver pathology, and liver histology is essential before consideration for antiviral treatment.

Diabetes risk reduction behaviours of rural postpartum women with a recent history of gestational diabetes

Introduction: For most women, gestational diabetes is temporary; however, an episode of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) confers an approximately seven-fold increased risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus. Objective: To examine readiness to adopt diabetes risk reduction behaviours and the prevalence of these behaviours among rural women with GDM during their last pregnancy.
Methods: The study design was a self-administered mailed questionnaire seeking information about demographics, stage of change, physical activity level and dietary fat intake. Setting: Regional outpatient context. Participants: Women with a single episode of GDM between 1 July 2001 and 31 December 2005 (n = 210). Main outcome measures: Stage of change for physical activity, weight loss and reducing dietary fat behaviour; meeting activity targets, body mass index (BMI) and dietary fat score.
Results: Eighty-four women returned completed questionnaires (40% response rate). Of the 77 women eligible (mean age 35 ± 3.8 years), 58% met recommended activity targets. Sixty-three percent of women were overweight or obese: mean BMI 29.6 kg/m2 (± 7.30). Women reported a high level of preparedness to engage in physical activity, weight loss and reduction of fat intake. Thirty-nine percent of women had not had any postpartum follow-up glucose screening. Women who remembered receiving diabetes prevention information were significantly more likely to meet physical activity targets (p<0.05).
Conclusions: Readiness to engage in behaviour change was high among this group of rural women for all three diabetes risk reduction behaviours measured. However, despite a high proportion of women meeting activity targets and reducing fat intake, the majority of women remained overweight or obese. Postpartum follow-up glucose testing needs to be improved and the impact of diabetes prevention information provided during pregnancy warrants further study.

Diabetes and risk of physical disability in adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background
According to previous reports, the risk of disability as a result of diabetes varies from none to double. Disability is an important measure of health and an estimate of the risk of disability as a result of diabetes is crucial in view of the global diabetes epidemic. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate this risk.

Methods
We searched Ovid, Medline, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature up to Aug 8, 2012. We included studies of adults that compared the risk of disability—as measured by activities of daily living (ADL), instrumental activities of daily living (IADL), or mobility—in people with and without any type of diabetes. We excluded studies of subpopulations with specific illnesses or of people in nursing homes. From the studies, we recorded population characteristics, how diabetes was diagnosed (by doctor or self-reported), domain and definition of disability, and risk estimates for disability. We calculated pooled estimates by disability type and type of risk estimate (odds ratio [OR] or risk ratio [RR]).

Results
Our systematic review returned 3224 results, from which 26 studies were included in our meta-analyses. Diabetes increased the risk of mobility disability (15 studies; OR 1·71, 95% CI 1·53—1·91; RR 1·51, 95% CI 1·38—1·64), of IADL disability (ten studies; OR 1·65, 95% CI 1·55—1·74), and of ADL disability (16 studies; OR 1·82, 95% CI 1·63—2·04; RR 1·82, 95% CI 1·40—2·36).

Interpretation
Diabetes is associated with a strong increase in the risk of physical disability. Efforts to promote healthy ageing should account for this risk through prevention and management of diabetes.

Funding
Monash University, Baker IDI Bright Sparks Foundation, Australian Postgraduate Award, VicHealth, National Health and Medical Research Council, Australian Research Council, Victorian Government.

Computerised cognitive behavioural therapy for psychological distress in patients with physical illnesses: a systematic review.

Whilst cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) has been shown to improve outcomes in patients with chronic physical illnesses, there are barriers to its implementation which computerised CBT (CCBT) may overcome. We reviewed all studies of CCBT for treating psychological distress (PD) in chronic physical illness populations. Systematic searches were undertaken in July, 2013. All articles about CCBT for PD secondary to physical illness were included. Twenty-nine studies (thirty papers) were included. Overall, the quality of evidence was poor. Studies about irritable bowel syndrome demonstrated the best evidence. The evidence for CCBT in the treatment of PD in physical illness patients is modest, perhaps due to the seldom use of PD screening. More robust research designs including longer follow up periods are required. Nevertheless, no studies reported a negative effect of CCBT on any outcome measures.

The impact of physical disability on body esteem

The current study investigated the impact of physical disability on body esteem. A total of 35 people (18 males and 17 females) with physical disabilities between 19 to 60 years (mean = 38 years, SD = 10), participated in focus groups where they discussed their feelings about how their disability affected their body esteem. They also responded to a series of questions that were designed to examine disability-specific issues in body esteem using a four point Likert-type scale. The data demonstrated that the body esteem of the participants was commonly affected by physical disability. It also suggested that feedback from the social environment is a likely mediator of body esteem. Suggestions for future research and implications for clinicians are discussed.

Associations of physical activity with body weight and fat in men and women

OBJECTIVE: Increasing physical activity is strongly advocated as a key public health strategy for weight gain prevention. We investigated associations of leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) and occupational/domestic physical activity with body mass index (BMI) and a skinfold-derived index of body fat (sum of six skinfolds), among normal-weight and overweight men and women.

DESIGN: Analyses of cross-sectional self-report and measured anthropometric data.

SUBJECTS: A total of 1302 men and women, aged 18-78 y, who were part of a randomly selected sample and who agreed to participate in a physical health assessment.

MEASUREMENTS: Self-report measures of physical activity, measured height and weight, and a skinfold-derived index of body fatness.

RESULTS: Higher levels of LTPA were positively associated with the likelihood of being in the normal BMI and lower body fat range for women, but few or no associations were found for men. No associations were found between measures of occupational/domestic activity and BMI or body fat for men or women.

CONCLUSION: By using a skinfold sum as a more direct measure of adiposity, this study extends and confirms the previous research that has shown an association between BMI and LTPA. Our results suggest gender differences in the relationship of leisure-time physical activity with body fatness. These findings, in conjunction with a better understanding of the causes of such differences, will have important public health implications for the development and targeting of weight gain prevention strategies.

Playing their part: the role of physical activity and sport in sustaining the health and well being of small rural communities

It is widely recognised that the health of rural Australians is poor in comparison with their urban counterparts. Similarly, the role played by physical activity in maintaining health has been well researched and is well documented. However, little appears to have been published in recent years about the links between physical activity and health in rural communities. The objective of this article was to begin to address that gap. To achieve this, the article drew on research conducted in two small rural communities in Victoria Australia, and highlighted the role that physical activity and sport played in sustaining the health and wellbeing of individuals and communities in rural areas. Taking the World Health Organisation's definition of health (a state of complete physical, mental and social well-being and not merely the absence of disease) as its measure, the paper highlighted the many ways in which physical activity and sport in rural communities contribute to physical health, mental wellbeing and social cohesiveness. Based this finding, the authors suggest that physical activity and sport make a significant contribution to the health and wellbeing of rural people and their communities and suggest that further research is necessary to better define this apparent contribution.

A history of urban planning policy and heritage protection in Vientiane, Laos

This paper examines the tensions between modernisation and heritage protection in the Lao capital, Vientiane. Vientiane provides an interesting case study of the dilemmas facing small cities in developing countries as those countries try to manage the pressures that result from greater integration in regional and global processes of economic and cultural change. While modernisation appears to be winning out over heritage  protection, the paper concludes that they are not necessarily mutually exclusive, and that heritage protection in Vientiane is largely aimed at  reinforcing monumental and nation-building elements, emphasising the  development of a contemporary national capital of a modern nation state.

Do logbooks influence recall of physical activity in validation studies?

Purpose: To examine whether physical activity logbooks influence estimates of validity of 7-d recall physical activity questionnaires. Methods: A  convenience sample of 551 adults aged 18–75 yr wore an MTI  accelerometer for seven consecutive days and were then randomly administered two of four 7-d recall physical activity questionnaires that varied in length and format (Active Australia Survey (AAS), long and short  International Physical Activity Questionnaires (IPAQ-L and IPAQ-S), and Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS)). A subsample of 75% concurrently completed a physical activity logbook. Results: Correlations (rho) between self-reported and measured duration of moderate- and vigorous-intensity activity and total activity were similar among participants who received a logbook and those who did not for each of the four instruments. There was also no interaction between assessment method (survey, accelerometer) and the assignment of a logbook. For the IPAQ-L, however, variability in the difference between accelerometer data and responses to the vigorous items was smaller among those assigned a logbook (F = 4.128, df = 260, P = 0.043). Overall, there were no differences in percent agreement or kappa for participation in sufficient levels of physical activity according to receipt of a logbook for any of the surveys. Conclusion: The process of self-monitoring through completion of a logbook does not appear to influence estimates of validity for brief or long questionnaires with global questions. Whereas the magnitude of error in accuracy of recall of particular types of activity may be reduced by completion of a logbook that is similar in structure to the survey being validated, this does not appear to influence overall estimates of validity.

Piloting the feasibility and effectiveness of print- and telephone-mediated interventions for promoting the adoption of physical activity in Australian adults

This study examined the feasibility and effectiveness for increasing physical activity of a print-based intervention, and a print- plus telephone-mediated intervention among mid-life and older Australian adults. A randomised controlled trial study design was used. In mid-2002, 66 adults (18 men, 48 women) aged 45–78 years, who identified themselves as underactive, were recruited through advertisements and word-of-mouth at two sites (Melbourne and Brisbane), and randomised to either the print or print-plus-telephone mediated intervention group. Participants in both groups attended an initial briefing session, and over the 12-week intervention period received an instructional newsletter and use of a pedometer (both groups), and individualised telephone calls (print-plus-telephone group only). Self-reported physical activity data were collected at baseline, 12 and 16 weeks. Measures of self-reported global physical activity, moderate-vigorous intensity activity and walking all showed increases between baseline and 12 weeks for both intervention groups. These increases were generally maintained by 16 weeks, although participants in the print-plus-telephone group maintained slightly higher levels of global reported activity and walking (by approximately 30 mins/wk) than those in the print group. These interventions show potential for promoting initial increases in physical activity among mid-life and older Australian adults, and should be evaluated across more extended time periods.