Life-history and spatial determinants of somatic growth dynamics in Komodo dragon populations

Somatic growth patterns represent a major component of organismal fitness and may vary among sexes and populations due to genetic and environmental processes leading to profound differences in life-history and demography. This study considered the ontogenic, sex-specific and spatial dynamics of somatic growth patterns in ten populations of the world's largest lizard the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). The growth of 400 individual Komodo dragons was measured in a capture-mark-recapture study at ten sites on four islands in eastern Indonesia, from 2002 to 2010. Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) and information-theoretic methods were used to examine how growth rates varied with size, age and sex, and across and within islands in relation to site-specific prey availability, lizard population density and inbreeding coefficients. Growth trajectories differed significantly with size and between sexes, indicating different energy allocation tactics and overall costs associated with reproduction. This leads to disparities in maximum body sizes and longevity. Spatial variation in growth was strongly supported by a curvilinear density-dependent growth model with highest growth rates occurring at intermediate population densities. Sex-specific trade-offs in growth underpin key differences in Komodo dragon life-history including evidence for high costs of reproduction in females. Further, inverse density-dependent growth may have profound effects on individual and population level processes that influence the demography of this species.

Simulating urban growth in a developing nation's region using a cellular automata-based model

Urbanization is one of the most evident global changes. Research in the field of urban growth modelling has generated models that explore for drivers and components of the urban growth dynamics. Cellular automata (CA) modeling is one of the recent advances, and a number of CA-based models of urban growth have produced satisfactory simulations of spatial urban expansion over time. Most application and test of CA-based models of urban growth which provide likely and reliable simulations has been developed in urban regions of developed nations; urban regions in the United States, in particular. This is because most of the models were developed in universities and research centers of developed nations, and these regions have the required data, which is extensive. Most of the population growth in the world, however, occurs in the developing world. While some European countries show signs of stabilization of their population, in less developed countries, such as India, population still grows exponentially. And this growth is normally uncoordinated, which results in serious environmental and social problems in urban areas. Therefore, the use of existing dynamic–spatial models of urban growth in regions of developing nations could be a means to assist planners and decision makers of these regions to understand and simulate the process of urban growth and test the results of different development strategies. The pattern of growth of urban regions of developing nations, however, seems to be different of the pattern of developed countries. The former use to be more dense and centralized, normally expanding outwards from consolidated urban areas; while the second is normally more fragmented and sparse. The present paper aims to investigate to how extent existing CA-based urban growth models tested in developed nations can also be applied to a developing country urban area. The urban growth model was applied to Porto Alegre City, Brazil. An expected contiguous expansion from existing urban areas has been obtained as following the historical trends of growth of the region. Moreover, the model was sensitive and able to portray different pattern of growth in the study area by changing the value of its parameters.

PR-Index: using the h-Index and PageRank for determining true impact

Several technical indicators have been proposed to assess the impact of authors and institutions. Here, we combine the h-index and the PageRank algorithm to do away with some of the individual limitations of these two indices. Most importantly, we aim to take into account value differences between citations-evaluating the citation sources by defining the h-index using the PageRank score rather than with citations. The resulting PR-index is then constructed by evaluating source popularity as well as the source publication authority. Extensive tests on available collections data (i.e., Microsoft Academic Search and benchmarks on the SIGKDD innovation award) show that the PR-index provides a more balanced impact measure than many existing indices. Due to its simplicity and similarity to the popular h-index, the PR-index may thus become a welcome addition to the technical indices already in use. Moreover, growth dynamics prior to the SIGKDD innovation award indicate that the PR-index might have notable predictive power.

Understanding the economic dynamics behind growth-inequality relationships

In this paper, a dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) model of growth–inequality relationships, with missing credit markets, knowledge spillover and self-employed agents, is calibrated to New Zealand data. The model explains how two distinct policy shocks involving redistribution and immigration imply, subsequently, two completely opposite outcomes. Agents’ inability to borrow aggravates a negative macroeconomic effect of heterogeneity on growth. Redistribution mitigates that effect but creates microeconomic disincentives on saving and work-effort. Consequently, immigration shocks that perturb variance of efficiency induce a negative growth–inequality relationship, while redistribution shocks, in New Zealand’s case, produce larger fluctuations in incentives than in macro benefits, implying a positive growth–inequality relationship.

Dynamics of childhood growth and obesity: development and validation of a quantitative mathematical model

Background
Clinicians and policy makers need the ability to predict quantitatively how childhood bodyweight will respond to obesity interventions.

Methods
We developed and validated a mathematical model of childhood energy balance that accounts for healthy growth and development of obesity, and that makes quantitative predictions about weight-management interventions. The model was calibrated to reference body composition data in healthy children and validated by comparing model predictions with data other than those used to build the model.

Findings
The model accurately simulated the changes in body composition and energy expenditure reported in reference data during healthy growth, and predicted increases in energy intake from ages 5—18 years of roughly 1200 kcal per day in boys and 900 kcal per day in girls. Development of childhood obesity necessitated a substantially greater excess energy intake than for development of adult obesity. Furthermore, excess energy intake in overweight and obese children calculated by the model greatly exceeded the typical energy balance calculated on the basis of growth charts. At the population level, the excess weight of US children in 2003—06 was associated with a mean increase in energy intake of roughly 200 kcal per day per child compared with similar children in 1971—74. The model also suggests that therapeutic windows when children can outgrow obesity without losing weight might exist, especially during periods of high growth potential in boys who are not severely obese.

Interpretation
This model quantifies the energy excess underlying obesity and calculates the necessary intervention magnitude to achieve bodyweight change in children. Policy makers and clinicians now have a quantitative technique for understanding the childhood obesity epidemic and planning interventions to control it.

Funding
Intramural Research Program of the National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases.

The role of technology on the dynamics of coal consumption-economic growth: new evidence from China

Coal comprises 70% of primary energy sources and 80% of electricity generation in China. This paper investigates the coal consumption-economic growth nexus in an integrated demand-supply framework over the period from 1978 to 2010. We incorporate the role of coal technology to explain the growth process. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds testing approach, we find improvement in the coal-to-electricity efficiency indicator, a proxy for coal technology, causing almost a 35% increase in real GDP in the long run. The Toda-Yamamoto causality test indicates unidirectional causality from coal consumption to economic growth, feedback effects both for coal-to-electricity efficiency indicator to economic growth and coal demand and openness to coal consumption. For a robustness check, we forecast the validity of the causal relationships beyond the sample horizon using the generalised forecast error variance decomposition method. Our analysis suggests that improving overall efficiency in coal sector will continue to play a significant role in maintaining sustainable growth in China in the long run.

Study of growth mechanism of TiC cluster in ferrite via molecular dynamics simulation

Abstract Atomistic simulations were used to investigate the evolution process of titanium carbide clusters to mature precipitates in ferrite. The typical kinetic of carbide cluster growth was studied in detail through analyzing the atomic interactions of a carbide cluster with scattered carbon atoms. The driving force required for cluster growth was calculated along with the atomic diffusivity in the iron matrix, exploring the change in response as two main growth steps. The growth kinetic improved the understanding of precipitate evolution at the atomic level.

Understanding the dynamics between social entrepreneurship and inclusive growth in subsistence marketplaces

This article explores how social entrepreneurs utilize their unique circumstances and resources at a micro level to facilitate the creation of shared value at the meso level, leading to inclusive growth at a macro level in the context of subsistence marketplaces. Drawing from explanatory case studies of two social enterprises—Waste Concern (Bangladesh) and Seven Women (Nepal)—the findings suggest that social entrepreneurs act as bricoleurs to integrate their operant and operand resources in subsistence marketplaces to facilitate inclusive growth. The authors further connect with and extend three discourses of research—social entrepreneurship, social bricolage, and service-dominant logic—to develop a framework providing insights into the “bottom-up” approach, the underlying dynamics of shared value creation, and inclusive growth in subsistence marketplaces by social entrepreneurs. The findings also strengthen Dees's (2001) definition of social entrepreneurship, confirming its applicability and relevance in subsistence marketplaces and further extending the theory of social bricolage. The authors discuss the implications of these findings, including tactical interventions aimed at providing better understanding of how social entrepreneurs create value in resource-constrained marketplaces, from a bottom-up perspective.

Determinants of growth of the flammable grass, Triodia scariosa: consequences for fuel dynamics under climate change in the Mediterranean region of South Eastern Australia

Environmental conditions may influence the presence and strength of competitive interactions between different life forms, thereby shaping community composition and structure, and corresponding fuel dynamics. Woodland and shrubland communities of the Mediterranean climate region of South Eastern Australia contain a varied mixture of herbaceous and woody plants. The ratio of herbaceous to woody plants changes along gradients of temperature, moisture and soil fertility. This study aimed to experimentally examine the relative importance of, and interactions between environmental controls (moisture and soil fertility) on the balance of dominant herbaceous (Triodia scariosa) and woody plants (e.g. Acacia ligulata and Leptospermum coriaceum) and their ultimate effects on fuel and fire regimes. The results suggest that environmental determinants of the growth of T. scariosa are likely to be more important than interactions with shrubs in controlling the distribution of T. scariosa. The growth of T. scariosa was consistently higher under hot temperatures and on the less fertile yellow sands, which dominate the south of the region. The results suggest that there is strong potential for the distribution and abundance of T. scariosa to be altered in the future with changes in temperature associated with climate change. The distribution of soil types across the Mediterranean climate region of South Eastern Australia may be predisposed to favour the southerly expansion of T. scariosa-dominated communities in the future under a warmer climate.

Population dynamics and animal welfare issues raised by the culling of kangaroos in Puckapunyal

The culling of kangaroos at the Puckapunyal Army base (Australia) raises some intriguing ethical issues around animal welfare. After discussing the costs and benefits of the cull, this paper addresses the more general animal welfare issues related to population dynamics. Natural selection favours the maximization of the number of surviving offspring. This need not result in the maximization of the welfare of individuals in the species. The contrast between growth maximization and welfare maximization is first illustrated for a single population and then discussed in terms of competing populations. In the Lotka-Volterra model of competing species and its generalizations, the choice of different birthrates does not affect the population sizes at equilibrium. Welfare could be much higher at lower birthrates without even reducing numbers (at equilibrium)

Temporal dynamics of oocyte development, plasma sex steroids and somatic energy reserves during seasonal ovarian maturation in captive Murray cod Maccullochella peelii peellii

The temporal dynamics of oocyte growth, plasma sex steroids and somatic energy stores were examined during a 12 month ovarian maturation cycle in captive Murray cod Maccullochella peelii peelii under simulated natural photothermal conditions. Ovarian function was found to be relatively uninhibited in captivity, with the exception that post-vitellogenic follicles failed to undergo final maturation, resulting in widespread pre-ovulatory atresia. Seasonal patterns of oocyte growth were characterised by cortical alveoli accumulation in March, deposition of lipids in April, and vitellogenesis between May and September. Two distinct batches of vitellogenic oocytes were found in Murray cod ovaries, indicating a capacity for multiple spawns. Plasma profiles of 17β-oestradiol and testosterone were both highly variable during the maturation period suggesting that multiple roles exist for these steroids during different stages of oocyte growth. Condition factor, liver size and visceral fat stores were all found to increase prior to, or during the peak phase of vitellogenic growth. Murray cod appear to strategically utilise episodes of high feeding activity to accrue energy reserves early in the reproductive cycle prior to its deployment during periods of rapid ovarian growth.

A new modelling approach to simulate preferential flow and transport in water repellent media: parameter sensitivity, and effects on crop growth and solute leaching

A modified version of the popular agrohydrological model SWAP has been used to evaluate modelling of soil water flow and crop growth at field situations in which water repellency causes preferential flow. The parameter sensitivity in such situations has been studied. Three options to model soil water flow within SWAP are described and compared: uniform flow, the classical mobile-immobile concept, and a recent concept accounting for the dynamics of finger development resulting from unstable infiltration. Data collected from a severely water-repellent affected soil located in Australia were used to compare and evaluate the usefulness of the modelling options for the agricultural management of such soils.

The study shows that an assumption of uniform flow in a water-repellent soil profile leads to an underestimation of groundwater recharge and an overestimation of plant transpiration and crop production. The new concept of modelling taking finger dynamics into account provides greater flexibility and can more accurately model the observed effects of preferential flow compared with the classical mobile–immobile concept. The parameter analysis indicates that the most important factor defining the presence and extremity of preferential flow is the critical soil water content.

Comparison of the modelling results with the Australian field data showed that without the use of a preferential flow module, the effects of the clay amendments to the soil were insufficiently reproduced in the dry matter production results. This means that the physical characteristics of the soil alone are not sufficient to explain the measured increase in production on clay amended soils. However, modelling with the module accounting for finger dynamics indicated that the preferential flow in water repellent soils that had not been treated with clay caused water stress for the crops, which would explain the decrease in production.

Factors influencing population dynamics in island and mainland populations of the Swamp Antechinus (Antechinus minimus)

Simultaneously analysing demographic processes of small mammals living in different ecological contexts may help to understand mechanisms that influence the growth and decline of these populations. The size and demography of swamp antechinus (Antechinus minimus) populations located in a coastal mainland habitat and on a small offshore island in south-eastern Australia were investigated. Large demographic differences occurred between the two ecosystems, with the island population density often 100 times greater than that on the mainland. The swamp antechinus in the mainland habitat was influenced by extrinsic climatic forces, with juvenile recruitment, individual body mass and overall population size being affected by rainfall, a factor likely to influence food availability for the species. However, the island population did not appear to be affected by drought to the same degree where allochthonous marine nutrient inputs may have offset any drought-induced reduction in primary production. Significantly greater juvenile recruitment in the island habitats combined with restricted emigration and potentially reduced predation and interspecific competition are likely to be responsible for the high population densities on the island. Although island populations appear robust, future conservation efforts should focus on mainland populations given the genetic deficiencies in the island populations.