Web search activity data accurately predict population chronic disease risk in the USA

BACKGROUND: The WHO framework for non-communicable disease (NCD) describes risks and outcomes comprising the majority of the global burden of disease. These factors are complex and interact at biological, behavioural, environmental and policy levels presenting challenges for population monitoring and intervention evaluation. This paper explores the utility of machine learning methods applied to population-level web search activity behaviour as a proxy for chronic disease risk factors. METHODS: Web activity output for each element of the WHO's Causes of NCD framework was used as a basis for identifying relevant web search activity from 2004 to 2013 for the USA. Multiple linear regression models with regularisation were used to generate predictive algorithms, mapping web search activity to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) measured risk factor/disease prevalence. Predictions for subsequent target years not included in the model derivation were tested against CDC data from population surveys using Pearson correlation and Spearman's r. RESULTS: For 2011 and 2012, predicted prevalence was very strongly correlated with measured risk data ranging from fruits and vegetables consumed (r=0.81; 95% CI 0.68 to 0.89) to alcohol consumption (r=0.96; 95% CI 0.93 to 0.98). Mean difference between predicted and measured differences by State ranged from 0.03 to 2.16. Spearman's r for state-wise predicted versus measured prevalence varied from 0.82 to 0.93. CONCLUSIONS: The high predictive validity of web search activity for NCD risk has potential to provide real-time information on population risk during policy implementation and other population-level NCD prevention efforts.

Trends and guidelines in online privacy policy

Online privacy policies (OPP) are important mechanisms for informing online consumers about the level of information privacy protection afforded when visiting web sites. To date, societal mechanisms and technologies have been the focus of attempts to improve the quality and effectiveness of OPPs. We present findings from a longitudinal, empirical study of online privacy policies. Our research found that although online privacy policies have improved in quality and effectiveness since 2000, they still fall well short of the level of privacy assurance desired by consumers. This study analyses trends in OPPs over the two years of the study, identifying areas of deficiency and improvements, and offering a solution in the form of a detailed set of guidelines for organisational online privacy policy. Our study adds to existing theory in this area and, more immediately, will assist businesses concerned about the effect of privacy issues on consumer web usage.

Evidence for mental health occupational therapy: trends in the first decade of the new millenium (200-2013)

This article reports on the evidence for mental health occupational therapy in peer-reviewed journals from 2000 to 2013. Descriptive and inductive methods were used to address this question, with evidence from CINAHL, OTDBase, PSYCInfo, SCOPUS, and Google Scholar® included. Many articles (n = 1,747) were found that met the inclusion and exclusion criteria. A total of 47 different methods were used to develop evidence for mental health occupational therapy, and evidence appeared in 300 separate peer-reviewed journals. It takes on average 7 months for an article to progress from submission to acceptance, and a further 7 months to progress from acceptance to publication. More than 95% of articles published between 2000 and 2002 were cited at least once in the following decade, and around 70% of these citations were recorded in non-occupational therapy journals. The current evidence base for mental health occupational therapy is both substantial and diverse.

Globalisation, the environment and recent trends in international trade

The process of globalization has had far-reaching social as well as economic effects. The term "globalization" is generally taken to mean an increase in international transactions in markets for goods, services and factors of production and a growth in institutions .that straddle international borders. This development has also meant that the corporate-governance mechanisms have to be reinforced to ensure fairness and transparency as well as social responsibility. Finally, international infrastructure and institutions have to evolve to facilitate and ameliorate the effects of the growth in this world trade on the environment, sustainable development and bio-diversity. This paper provides an overview of the current developments in all these areas.

Tax incentives for foreign direct investment part I : Recent trends and countertrends

According to the conventional wisdom, tax incentives for investment - in particular for foreign direct investment (FDI) - are not recommended. That is the view held almost universally by theorists and by the international bodies that advise on tax matters.' Tax incentives are bad in theory and bad in practice. They are bad in theory principally because they cause distortions: investment decisions are made that would not have been made without the inducement of special tax concessions. They are bad in practice, being both ineffective and inefficient. They are ineffective in that tax considerations are only rarely a major determinant in FDI decisions; they are inefficient because their cost, in terms of tax revenue foregone, often far exceeds any benefits they may produce. Other criticisms are also frequently levelled against tax incentives for FDI - they are inequitable (since they benefit some investors but not others), they are difficult to administer and open to abuse, and they lack transparency. Thus, it is not surprising that ''the standard advice given by institutions like the World Bank and the lMF to developing countries is to refrain from offering tax incentives to foreign investors".2 The purpose of this article is not to question that advice or to challenge the conventional wisdom - except in one respect. Recent evidence does suggest that tax considerations are an increasingly important factor in investment decisions and that special tax incentives have become substantially more effective as instruments for attracting FDI than they were 10 or 20 years ago.3 The first part of this article, published here, examines some of that evidence, reviews some recent trends in national policies towards FDI, attempts to suggest why investment incentives have become more important and more effective, and looks at the pressures that are exerted on governments, especially in developing countries, to compete for FDI by offering special incentives. The second part of the article, to be published in the Bulletin next month, assumes that many countries will continue to offer tax incentives to investors regardless of the best advice, and considers how incentives might be designed in order to increase their effectiveness and efficiency.

Analytical methodology for the determination of urea: current practice and future trends

The determination of urea is important in a wide range of fields, including clinical diagnostics, environmental monitoring and food science. Numerous analytical techniques have been developed for the determination of urea, with no single technique dominant in all areas because of the diversity of applications. An overview of the existing analytical methodologies for urea is presented, and some new approaches are discussed, particularly those based on chemiluminescence detection to improve the sensitivity and the selectivity for the determination of this important analyte.

Long-term trends in the Australaian gannet (Morus serrator) population in Australia: the effect of climate change and commercial fisheries

The Australasian gannet (Morus serrator) population has increased considerably over the past century, both in New Zealand and Australia. Since 1980, the population in Australian waters has increased threefold, from 6,600 breeding pairs to approximately 20,000 pairs in 1999-2000, a rate of 6% per year. Reasons for the increase in the Australasian gannet population are poorly understood; here we consider the possible effects of recent fluctuations in climatic and oceanographic conditions, and changes in major local commercial fisheries. A significant trend towards more frequent, and stronger, El Niño Southern Oscillation events, warmer summer sea surface temperatures in Bass Strait, increased annual catches and catch per unit effort in the Victorian pilchard (Sardinops sagax) fishery and potential increased discarding of fisheries bycatch may account for at least some of the observed increase in the Australasian gannet population. The potential interactive effects of these factors on prey distribution and abundance and consequently on gannet numbers are discussed.

Developing trends in social work field education

Practicum education is rapidly gaining acknowledgement within the higher education sector as a legitimate pedagogy, providing exciting learning for students along with a pathway to future employment. This position has been hard won due to a long tradition of academic ascendancy in higher education, where the practicum has been viewed as too hands-on and vocationally oriented to warrant serious research consideration or recognition as pedagogy in its own right. The first article in this collection dedicated to field education examines the current context in which the practicum is situated, and highlights emerging trends in social work practice, technology and research, that subsequent authors have expanded upon in their own contributions. This article concludes with some suggestions for how practicum education may be further developed and strengthened to better serve future cohorts of social work students.

Generic drugs: international trends and policy developments in Australia

Public and private third-party payers in many countries encourage or mandate the use of generic drugs. This article examines the development of generics policy in Australia, against the background of a description of international trends in this area, and related experiences of reference pricing programs. The Australian generics market remains underdeveloped due to a historical legacy of small Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme price differentials between originator brands and generics. It is argued that policy measures open to the Australian government can be conceived as clustering around two different approaches: incremental changes within the existing regulatory framework, or a shift towards a high volume/low price role of generics which would speed up the delivery of substantial cost savings, and could provide enhanced scope for the financing of new, patented drugs.

Land use, water quality and ecological responses in Lake Colac – trends from Australia

Purpose - Recently, Colac Otway Shire in Australia released its management plan for Lake Colac, claiming over-enrichment of the lake with nutrients and degraded water quality. This paper aims to investigate these claims by establishing a correlation between key water and ecological indicators and land uses.

Design/methodology/approach - Examines the correlation between impairment and stressors in Lake Colac. This was achieved by identifying the likely sources of pollutants into Lake Colac; identifying any existing monitoring program; and characterizing the water and sediment inputs. The likely impacts of increased nutrients and sediment levels on indigenous flora and fauna were also examined. The use of meiofauna (very small benthic metazoan animals) was investigated as an indicator of degraded sites. Plankton diversity as a measure of water health was also assessed.

Findings - Water quality in Lake Colac was found to vary both temporally and spatially, and exhibited low attainment against acceptable trigger values/objectives. At current levels the lake can be classified as poorly degraded. Likely sources of pollution were identified to be related to land uses in the catchments. The biota of the lake, investigated at four study sites, yielded a sparse, benthic macrofaunal assemblage that was dominated by oligochaetes. In contrast, an abundant and taxonomically diverse meiofaunal assemblage was noted. Future meiofaunal analyses are likely to resolve suitable biotic indicator species of free-living nematodes in response to land use and waterway threats specified in the study. Originality value - This work will provide a better understanding of integrated environmental systems to enable development of best management practices, thus transforming the way the land and water are used in the future. Following the present work, other key water and ecological indicators (increased dispersion and dominance of biological species) at five additional sites were studied. Alternative management options for the effluent generated at Colac Sewage Treatment Plant and possible ecological effects of each option were also evaluated. More recently, a sediment characterization study was also carried out at sensitive sites representative of locations where build up of sediments and algae outbreaks are reported. This will enable classification of sediment and evaluation of dredging options.

Trends in children`s physical activity and weight status in high and low socio-economic status areas of Melbourne, Victoria, 1985-2001

Objective:
To examine trends in active transport to and from school, in school sport and physical education (PE), and in weight status among children from high and low socio-economic status (SES) areas in Melbourne, Victoria, between 1985 and 2001.

Methods:
Cross-sectional survey data and measured height and weight from 1985 (n=557) and 2001 (n=926) were compared for children aged between 9–13 years within high and low SES areas.

Results:
From 1985 to 2001, the frequency of walking to or from school declined (4.38±4.3 vs. 3.61 ± 3.8 trips/wk, p<0.001), cycling to or from school also declined (1.22±2.9 vs. 0.36±1.5 trips/wk, p<0.001), and the frequency of PE lessons declined (1.64±1.1 vs. 1.18±0.9 lessons/wk, p<0.001). However, the frequency of school sport increased (0.9±1.22 vs. 1.24±0.8 sessions/wk, p<0.001). In 1985, 11.7% of children were overweight or obese compared with 28.7% in 2001 (p<0.001). Apart from walking to school and school sport, there were greater relative declines in cycling to school and PE, and increases in overweight and obesity among children attending schools in low SES areas compared with those attending schools in high SES areas.

Conclusions:
Declines in active school transport and PE have occurred at the same time as increases in overweight and obesity among Australian children.

Implications:
Promoting active school transport and maintaining school sport and PE should be important public health priorities in Australia. Current inequities in school sport and PE and in prevalence of overweight and obesity by area-level SES also need to be addressed.

Emerging trends in the use of drugs to manage the challenging behaviour of people with intellectual disability

Background Concerns about the pharmacological management of the behaviour of individuals with intellectual disability have resulted in the development of legislative and procedural controls.
Method This Australian study provided a comparison of 873 reported cases where drugs were administered to manage behaviour in March 2000, with 762 cases reported in March 1993. Drug use in individuals who remained medicated across time (n = 316: recurrent sample) was also compared with those who were reported only in 1993 (n = 329: limited sample).
Results A small decrease in the proportion of individuals who were reported to have received medication was evident over time (from 5% to 4.5% of total population). However, this was accompanied by an increase in drug diversity and interclass polypharmacy. An increase in antidepressant use was evident (from 7.4% to 13.8% of reported drugs), and there was a trend towards greater reporting of medication for acute behavioural problems and medication use with children. Greater use of antipsychotic drugs was evident in individuals who remained medicated across time compared with those who did not.
Conclusions The findings suggest the need for continuous research into practice. The fact that many individuals receive medication over long periods makes it incumbent on service providers to engage in regular, comprehensive and individualized review and evaluation of medication regimes.

Sun exposure and sun protection behaviours among Australian adolescents: trends over time

Background
This study compared the sun exposure and sun protection behaviours of adolescent students between 1993 and 1999.

Methods
Schools from all Australian states and the two territories participated in each of the 1993, 1996, and 1999 surveys and a sample of students from years 7 to 12 were surveyed. In each of the states and territories a random sample of schools was selected within each education sector (government, Catholic, independent). The questionnaire was a self-completed booklet with questions about sunburn history during the previous summer, tan preferences, skin-type, and usual reported behaviour. Data from a total of 78,032 students were available for analysis.

Results
From 1993 to 1999 there was a significant increase in the number of students reporting sunburn during the previous summer (χ2 = 225.77, df = 2, P < 0.01). However, the percentage of students who preferred no tan at all increased over the same period (χ2 = 184.47, df = 2, P < 0.01). The percentage of students who usually or always wore clothing that covered most of their body decreased between 1993 and 1999 (χ2 = 20.46, df = 2, P < 0.01); the percentage of students usually or always wearing maximum protection sunscreen decreased over time (χ2 = 27.71, df = 2, P < 0.01). Staying in the shade increased from 1993 (26%) to 1996 (32%) but decreased slightly in 1999 (30%). Across all survey years, only 11% of students routinely followed all three protective behaviours of wearing a hat, sunscreen, and clothes that cover the body.

Conclusions
Sun protection practices among adolescents are still below optimal levels. Future educational programs require innovative approaches that aims to change attitudes toward tanning as being healthy and attractive and modify adolescent behaviours in relation to sun exposure.