Australian Unity wellbeing index survey 25.1 part A : report "The wellbeing of Australians - bushfires and floods : following up the effects of fires in Victoria and floods in Queensland"

The Australian Unity Wellbeing Index monitors the subjective wellbeing of the Australian population. Our first survey was conducted in April 2001 and this report concerns a special Survey 25.1, undertaken in October 2011. The survey was commissioned to detect whether the disastrous floods in North Queensland in the period December 2010 through February 2011, and fires in Victoria in the period January through February 2009, continued to affect the subjective wellbeing of people continuing to live in the disaster areas.

This survey involved 1,215 respondents, with 600 drawn from Victoria and 615 from Queensland. The questionnaire comprised only the Personal Wellbeing Index and a small set of demographic questions. In all other respects the methodology of the survey followed our normal procedures.1

Essays on the economics of natural disasters and political institutions

This thesis examines how natural disasters—earthquakes, floods and storms—affect democracy by altering economic outcomes. The results indicate that earthquakes and floods improve the level of democracy, while storms lead to non-democratic transitions, particularly in island countries.

Resistance and resilience: Can the abrupt end of extreme drought reverse avifaunal collapse?

Aim: Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events, such as severe droughts and intense rainfall periods. We explored how the avifauna of a highly modified region responded to a 13-year drought (the 'Big Dry'), followed by a two-year period of substantially higher than average rainfall (the 'Big Wet'). Location: Temperate woodlands in north central Victoria, Australia. Methods: We used two spatially extensive, long-term survey programmes, each of which was repeated three times: early and late in the Big Dry, and in the Big Wet. We compared species-specific changes in reporting rates between periods in both programmes to explore the resistance (the ability to persist during drought) and resilience (extent of recovery post-drought) of species to climate extremes. Results: There was a substantial decline in the reporting rates of 42-62% (depending on programme) of species between surveys conducted early and late in the Big Dry. In the Big Wet, there was some recovery, with 21-29% of species increasing substantially. However, more than half of species did not recover and 14-27% of species continued to decline in reporting rate compared with early on in the Big Dry. Species' responses were not strongly related to ecological traits. Species resistance to the drought was inversely related to resilience in the Big Wet for 20-35% of the species, while 76-78% of species with low resistance showed an overall decline across the study period. Conclusions: As declines occurred largely irrespective of ecological traits, this suggests a widespread mechanism is responsible. Species that declined the most during the Big Dry did not necessarily show the greatest recoveries. In already much modified regions, climate extremes such as extended drought will induce on-going changes in the biota. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Droughts, floods and freshwater ecosystems : evaluating climate change impacts and developing adaptation strategies

Climate change is expected to have significant impacts on hydrologic regimes and freshwater ecosystems, and yet few basins have adequate numerical models to guide the development of freshwater climate adaptation strategies. Such strategies can build on existing freshwater conservation activities, and incorporate predicted climate change impacts. We illustrate this concept with three case studies. In the Upper Klamath Basin of the western USA, a shift in land management practices would buffer this landscape from a declining snowpack. In the Murray–Darling Basin of south-eastern Australia, identifying the requirements of flood-dependent natural values would better inform the delivery of environmental water in response to reduced runoff and less water. In the Savannah Basin of the south-eastern USA, dam managers are considering technological and engineering upgrades in response to more severe floods and droughts, which would also improve the implementation of recommended environmental flows. Even though the three case studies are in different landscapes, they all contain significant freshwater biodiversity values. These values are threatened by water allocation problems that will be exacerbated by climate change, and yet all provide opportunities for the development of effective climate adaptation strategies.

Mortality rates, prevalence of malnutrition, and prevalence of lost pregnancies among the drought-ravaged population of Tete province Mozambique

Background: Tete Province, Mozambique has experienced chronic food insecurity and a dramatic fall in livestock numbers due to the cyclic problems characterized by the floods in 2000 and severe droughts in 2002 and 2003. The Province has been a beneficiary of emergency relief programs, which have assisted >22% of the population. However, these programs were not based on sound epidemiological data, and they have not established baseline data against which to assess the impact of the programs. Objective: The objective of this study was to document mortality rates, causes of death, the prevalence of malnutrition, and the prevalence of lost pregnancies after 2.5 years of humanitarian response to the crisis. Methods: A two-stage, 30-cluster household survey was conducted in the Cahora Bassa and Changara districts from 22 October to 08 November 2004. A total of 838 households were surveyed, with a population size of 4,688 people. Results: Anthropometric data were collected among children 6-59 months of age. In addition, crude mortality rates (CMRs), under five mortality rates (U5MRs), causes of deaths, and prevalence of lost pregnancies were determined among the sample population. The prevalence of malnutrition was 8.0% (95% confidence interval (CI)=6.2-9.8%) for acute malnutrition, 26.9% (95% CI=24.0-29.9%) for being underweight, and 37.0% (95% CI=33.8-40.2%) for chronic malnutrition. Boys were more likely to be underweight than were girls (odds ratio (OR)=1.34; 95% CI=1.00, 1.82; p<0.05) after controlling for age, household size, and food aid beneficiary status. Similarly, children 30-59 months of age were significantly less likely to suffer from acute malnutrition (OR=0.45; 95% CI=0.26, 0.79; p<0.01) and less likely to be underweight (OR=0.37; 95% CI=0.27, 0.51; p<0.01) than children 6-29 months of age, after adjusting for the other, aforementioned factors. The proportion of lost pregnancies was estimated at 7.7% (95% CI=4.5-11.0%). A total of 215 deaths were reported during the year preceding the survey. Thirty-nine (18.1%) children <5 years of age died. The CMR was 1.23/10 000/day (95% CI=1.08-1.38), and an U5MR was 1.03/10 000/day (95% CI=0.71-1.35). Diarrheal diseases, malaria, tuberculosis, and human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) accounted for more than two-thirds of all deaths. Conclusions: The observed CMR in Tete Province, Mozambique is three times higher than the baseline rate for sub-Saharan Africa and 1.4 times higher than the CMR cut-off point used to define excess mortality in emergencies. The current humanitarian response in Tete Province would benefit from an improved alignment of food aid programming in conjunction with diarrheal disease control, HIV/AIDS, and malaria prevention and treatment programs. The impact of the food programs would be improved if mutually acceptable food aid programme objectives, verifiable indicators relevant to each objective, and beneficiary targets and selection criteria are developed. Periodic re-assessments and evaluations of the impact of the program and evidenced-based decision-making urgently are needed to avert a chronic dependency on food aid.

Catastrophic loss and the law : a comparison between 2009 Victorian Black Saturday fires and 2011 Queensland floods and Cyclone Yasi

This article explores insurability relating to loss occasioned by catastrophic events in Australia in the context of the current legal regulatory regime. The analysis includes two case studies, in which we juxtapose the Victorian Black Saturday fires in February 2--9 with the Queensland flooding and Cyclone Yasi (December 2010 - February 2011). We argue that the different responses to, and economic losses stemming from, these events illustrate the urgent need for a national regulatory and insurance regime for the prevention and alleviation of disasters and the management of their consequences.

Flash-floods : genre subversion and the abject erotic in Dorothy Porter’s The monkey’s mask and El Dorado

When discussing her verse novels, Dorothy Porter explicitly stated that she loved to ‘write bad’. This paper will argue that it was Porter’s engagement with the verse novel form and genre subversion, most notably seen with her detective and crime thriller verse novels The monkey’s mask and El Dorado, that allows for a destabilisation of traditionally established genre conventions, which in turn provide a narrative foundation for Porter’s use of abject erotic imagery.

In both The monkey’s mask and El Dorado there are several types of ‘bodies’ to be examined: the body of the verse narrative, the bodies of the characters subjected to crime, the body of poetry that is referred to as evidence, and the abject eroticised body. Extending upon the studies of Rose Lucas (1997) and Fleur Diamond (1999), this paper contends that it is Porter’s engagement with the abject erotic, as informed by Julia Kristeva’s (1982) theory of the abject and Johanna Blakley’s (1995) discussion of the abject in relation to eroticism, that allows Porter to subvert the phallocentric limitations upheld through the crime fiction genre and offer an alternative representation for lesbian sexuality and desire.

Floods and famine: climate-induced collapse of a tropical predator-prey community

Will climate change threaten wildlife populations by gradual shifts in mean conditions, or by increased frequency of extreme weather events? Based on long-term data (from 1991 to 2014), the aim of the present study was to analyse and compare the sensitivity of predator-prey demography to extreme climatic events versus normal, albeit highly variable, annual deviations in climatic conditions in the Australian wet-dry tropics. From 1991 to 2005, predators (water pythons, Liasis fuscus) and their main prey (dusky rats, Rattus colletti) showed significant climate-driven fluctuations in numbers. These fluctuations were, however, trivial compared to the impact of two massive but brief deluges in 2007 and 2011, which virtually eliminated the dusky rats. The two floods resulted in the pythons experiencing an unprecedented famine in seven out of the last 8 years causing a massive shift in python demography, that is a significant reduction in feeding rates, reproductive output, growth rates, relative body mass, survival, mean body length and numbers (from 3173 in 1992 to 96 in 2013). Our results demonstrate that attempts to predict faunal responses to climate change, even if based on long-term studies, may be doomed to failure. Consequently, biologists may need to confront the uncomfortable truth that increased frequency of brief unpredictable bouts of extreme weather can influence populations far more than gradual deviations in mean climatic conditions.

GIS-based dynamic modelling and analysis of flash floods considering land-use planning

Flood inundation is a common natural disaster and a growing development challenge for many cities and thousands of small towns around the world. Soil features have frequently altered with the rapid development of urbanised regions, which has led to more frequent and longer duration of flooding in urban flood-prone regions. Thus, this paper presents a geographic information system (GIS)-based methodology for measuring and visualising the effects on urban flash floods generated by land-use changes over time. The measurement is formulated with a time series in order to perform a dynamic analysis. A catchment mesh is introduced into a hydrological model for reflecting the spatial layouts of infrastructure and structures over different construction periods. The Geelong Waurn Ponds campus of Deakin University is then selected as a case study. Based on GIS simulation and mapping technologies, this research illustrates the evolutionary process of flash floods. The paper then describes flood inundation for different built environments and presents a comparison by quantifying the flooding extents for infrastructure and structures. The results reveal that the GIS-based estimation model can examine urban flash floods in different development phases and identify the change of flooding extents in terms of land-use planning. This study will bring benefits to urban planners in raising awareness of flood impact and the approach proposed here could be used for flood mitigation through future urban planning.

Interpreting changes in heroin supply in melbourne: droughts, gluts or cycles?

In this Harm Reduction Digest Paul Dietze and John Fitzgerald provide another possible way of understanding what has come to be referred to as Australia's heroin 'drought'. They examine evidence from Melbourne, Victoria and suggest that the apparent downturn in heroin availability in 2000 may, in part, be the result of an end of a heroin 'glut' and that perceptions of this phenomenon may be coloured by the development of more sophisticated indicators of the heroin market. They conclude with claims that the reasons for the reduction in drug consumption and adverse health outcomes, such as those attributed to interdiction, are thus premature.

Distribution of an alien aquatic snail in relation to flow variability, human activities and water quality

1. Disturbance and anthropogenic land use changes are usually considered to be key factors facilitating biological invasions. However, specific comparisons of invasion success between sites affected to different degrees by these factors are rare.

2. In this study we related the large-scale distribution of the invading New Zealand mud snail (Potamopyrgus antipodarum) in southern Victorian streams, Australia, to anthropogenic land use, flow variability, water quality and distance from the site to the sea along the stream channel.

3. The presence of P. antipodarum was positively related to an index of flow-driven disturbance, the coefficient of variability of mean daily flows for the year prior to the study.

4. Furthermore, we found that the invader was more likely to occur at sites with multiple land uses in the catchment, in the forms of grazing, forestry and anthropogenic developments (e.g. towns and dams), compared with sites with low-impact activities in the catchment. However, this relationship was confounded by a higher likelihood of finding this snail in lowland sites close to the sea.

5. We conclude that P. antipodarum could potentially be found worldwide at sites with similar ecological characteristics. We hypothesise that its success as an invader may be related to an ability to quickly re-colonise denuded areas and that population abundances may respond to increased food resources. Disturbances could facilitate this invader by creating spaces for colonisation (e.g. a possible consequence of floods) or changing resource levels (e.g. increased nutrient levels in streams with intense human land use in their catchments).

Taking environmental water requirements and climate change into account in the designation and management of protected areas for floodplain ecosystems

In 2005, the Victorian government asked the Victorian Environmental Assessment Council (VEAC) to 1) identify and evaluate the extent, condition, values, management, resources and uses of riverine red gum forests and associated fauna, wetlands, floodplain ecosystems and vegetation communities in northern Victoria; and 2) make recommendations relating to the conservation, protection and ecological sustainable use of public land. The design of a comprehensive, adequate and representative (CAR) reserve system was a key part of the recommendations made by VEAC. In order to assist in the decision-making for environmental water allocation for protected areas and other public land, a process for identifying flood-dependent natural values on the Victorian floodplains of the River Murray and its tributaries was developed.

Although some areas such as the Barmah forest are very well known, there have been few comprehensive inventories of important natural values along the Murray floodplains. For this project, VEAC sought out and compiled data on flood requirements (natural flood frequency, critical interval between floods, minimum duration of floods) for all flood-dependent ecological vegetation classes (EVCs) and threatened species along the Goulburn, Ovens, King and Murray Rivers in Victoria. The project did not include the Kerang Lakes and floodplains of the Avoca, Loddon and Campaspe Rivers. 186 threatened species and 110 EVCs (covering 224,247 ha) were identified as flood-dependent and therefore at risk from insufficient flooding.

Past environmental water allocations have targeted a variety of different natural assets (e.g. stressed red gum trees, colonial nesting waterbirds, various fish species), but consideration of the water requirements of the full suite of floodplain ecosystems and significant species has been limited. By considering the water requirements of the full range of natural assets, the effectiveness of water delivery for biodiversity can be maximised. This approach highlights the species and ecosystems most in need of water and builds on the icon sites approach to view the Murray floodplains as an interconnected system. This project also identified for the first time the flood-frequency and duration requirements for the full suite of floodplain ecosystems and significant species.

This project is the most comprehensive identification of water requirements for natural values on the floodplain to date, and is able to be used immediately to guide prioritisation of environmental watering. As more information on floodplain EVCs and species becomes available, the water requirements and distribution of values can be refined by ecologists and land and water managers. That is, the project is intended as the start of an adaptive process allowing for the incorporation of monitoring and feedback over time. The project makes it possible to transparently and easily communicate the extent to which manipulated or natural flows benefit various natural values. Quantitative and visual outputs such as maps will enable environmental managers and the public to easily see which values do and do not receive water (see http://www.veac.vic.gov.au/riverredgumfinal.htm for further details).

Pakistan’s twin interrelated challenges : economic development and security

The 2010 devastating floods in Pakistan have starkly reminded the world of the two critical, interrelated challenges confronting Pakistan: economic development and security. And whilst the Pakistan government's capacity to deal with these two issues before the flood was already shaky at best, its position now is even more precarious given the enormity of the task of rebuilding the infrastructure that has been destroyed in this latest natural disaster. Nuclear-armed Pakistan is a large and strategically important country, critically located on one of the world's most important geopolitical crossroads. It is a pivotal player in a region—covering the Middle East, Central Asia and South Asia—which has much potential, but which also has unresolved conflicts and various degrees of instability. Accordingly, because Pakistan is so important to the stability of the region and the world at large, it is vital that it be able to address successfully these twin challenges.

Social media in disaster response : Queensland Police Service - public engagement during the 2011 floods

Social Media, particularly Microblogging services, are now being adopted as an additional tool for emergency service agencies to be able to interact with the community at all stages of a disaster. Unfortunately, no standard framework for Social Media adoption for disaster management exists and emergency service agencies are adopting Social Media in an ad-hoc fashion. This paper seeks to provide a general understanding of how Social Media is being used by emergency service agencies during disasters, to better understand how we might develop a standardised framework of adoption. In this study of the 2010/11 Queensland Flood event, Facebook broadcast messages from the Queensland Police Service to the general public, were analysed by genre. Findings show that these Microblogging activities were mostly about information distribution and warning broadcasts and that the strength of Social Media for two-way communication and collaboration with the general public, was under-utilised during this event.

Freshwater influences on hydrology and seagrass dynamics of intermittent estuaries

Many temperate estuaries have intermittently open and closed mouths, a feature that is often related to intermittent freshwater input. These systems, often overlooked due to their small size, can have large hydrological variability over medium-term time scales.

This variability presents potential difficulties for estuarine species particularly where anthropogenic alterations to freshwater flows can cause large deviations from natural patterns of tidal influence and inundation of habitat.

Influences of natural and hydrological variability on seagrasses were examined in two central Victorian estuaries with anthropogenically-modified but naturally-intermittent freshwater flows and mouth openings. Comparisons were focused on differences between an estuary with artificially-augmented freshwater inflow and an adjacent system, in which the volume and timing of inflows were altered by a reservoir. Eight additional estuaries in the region were also used to provide a context for these two main sites.

Hydrological changes during the three-year field component were affected by the ending of a drought and then a major flood a year later as well as by ongoing anthropogenic flow reduction and augmentation. These influences on hydrology were associated with an initially high seagrass coverage that was substantially reduced and showed signs of recovery only in the system that was affected by lower inflows. Such influences and responses also changed seasonally but to a much lesser extent than the responses to stochastic climatic events.

Natural flows were intermittent and varied substantially between years. Flooding flows represented up to 89% of the long-term annual average flow. Water quality was broadly typical of the region, with the exception of low pH in some tributaries, especially those of Anglesea estuary. Anthropogenic changes to flow were most evident at times of low natural flows and resulted in longer and more frequent periods of zero inflow to Painkalac estuary and a continual base flow to Anglesea. This base flow, from ponds containing coal ash, neutralised waters flowing from upstream and increased conductivity, except at times of high natural flow.

A three-state conceptual model of the magnitude and variability of water levels, based largely on the degree of tidal influence was identified and quantitatively assessed for the two estuaries that were the main focus of the study. These states in turn had a large influence on the area and inundation of benthic habitat. Floods tended to open the mouths of estuaries, which then remained tidal given sufficient flow to overcome sedimentary processes at the mouths. Low and zero inflow was a precondition for closure of the mouths of the estuaries. When closed, differences in inflow resulted in different endpoints in salinity patterns. From an initial pattern similar to a classic ‘salt wedge’, Painkalac estuary, with reduced inflow, quickly destratified and gradually became more saline, at times hypersaline. Anglesea estuary, with augmented flow, tended to remain stratified for longer until becoming completely fresh, given a long enough period of closure.

Episodic changes in the water quality of the estuaries were associated with different components of the freshwater flow regimes. At high flows, fresh waters of low pH with a high metal load entered Anglesea estuary. Except during the largest flood, when the estuary was completely flushed, this water was neutralised at the halocline and resulting in precipitation of metals. High flows into Painkalac were associated with elevated concentrations of clay-sourced suspended solids. During a closed period, with zero flow, a release of sediment-bound nutrients triggered by anoxia was observed in Painkalac, followed by an algal bloom.

The large decline in seagrass extent that was observed in both estuaries was closely related to floods and the subsequent reductions in potential habitat associated with the tidal states that followed. Analysis of historical patterns of extent against rainfall records suggested that periods of drought and extended mouth closures were related to establishment and expansion of beds. This model was similar to that described for South African estuaries and contrasted with more-seasonal patterns reported for local marine embayments.

Rates of in situ decomposition of seagrass detritus showed a mix of seasonal and disturbance-driven patterns of change, depending on estuary. Variability of these rates on a scale of 100s of metres was typically not significant, but there were a few episodes that were highly significant. A negative correlation between decomposition rate and seagrass extent was also observed. A novel technique for assessing cellulose decomposition potential in sediment, adapted from soil science, proved to be a useful tool for estuarine research. Results from this component of the study highlighted both small-scale variability that was inconsistent through time, and also stable differences in decomposition potential between depths and estuaries that were consistent with differences in hydrological state and salinity.

Given the relative lack of knowledge about processes in intermittent estuaries, particularly those relating to changes in freshwater inflow, results from this study will be of value both locally and for similar systems elsewhere. Locally, it is likely that flow regimes to both Anglesea and Painkalac estuaries will be reduced, following closure of the mine power station at Anglesea and due to increased demand from the reservoir above Painkalac. There is potential to manage flows from each of these sources to minimise downstream effects. Regionally, and globally, there are many intermittent estuaries in areas with Mediterranean-type climates. It has been predicted that the climates of these regions will become drier but with an increase in intensity of storm events, both of which have ramifications for flow regimes to estuaries. It is hoped that results of this study will contribute to more informed management of intermittent estuaries in the context of these likely changes.