A comparative analysis of accounting-based valuation models

We empirically compare the reliability of the dividend (DIV) model, the residual income valuation (CT, GLS) model, and the abnormal earnings growth (OJ) model. We find that valuation estimates from the OJ model are generally more reliable than those from the other three models, because the residual income valuation model anchored by book value gets off to a poor start when compared with the OJ model led by capitalized next-year earnings. We adopt a 34-year sample covering from 1985 to 2013 to compare the reliability of valuation estimates via their means of absolute pricing errors (MAPE) and corresponding t statistics. We further use the switching regression of Barrios and Blanco to show that the average probability of OJ valuation estimates is greater in explaining stock prices than the DIV, CT, and GLS models. In addition, our finding that the OJ model yields more reliable estimates is robust to analysts-based and model-based earnings measures.

Dividend policy choice : do earnings or investment opportunities matter?

The aim of this paper is to analyse the influence of a company's level of earnings and growth opportunities in determining the dividend policy choice of Malaysian-listed firms. The analysis is based on a sample of 136 firms listed on the Bursa Malaysia Index over a period of six years, from 1990 to 1996. The evidence suggests that the payers are more profitable than non-payers. Likewise, investment opportunity, which is measured by (∂At /At-1) and (Vt /At), differed for both payers and non-payers. The regression estimates from Logit model suggest that the average coefficient for EATA is a significant determinant for firm's dividend policy choice in Malaysia. This is consistent with the supposition that profitable firms are more likely to pay dividends than less profitable firms. Although investment opportunities, the firm's size and leverage were not found to be statistically significant, they provided some explanation for the dividend policy choice.