Regulatory Change v's volume of trade effects in HSIF and HSI volatility

In an earlier paper we adopted a BEKK-GARCH framework and employed a systematic approach to examine structural breaks in the HSIF and HSI volatility. Switching dummy variables were included and tested in the variance equations to check for any structural changes in the autoregressive volatility structure due to the events that have taken place in the Hong Kong market. A Bi-variate GARCH model with 3 switching points was found to be superior as it captured the potential structural changes in return volatilities. Abolishment of the uptick rule, increase of initial margins for the HSIF and electronic trading of HSIF were found to have significant impact on the volatility structure of HSIF and HSI. In this paper we include measures of daily trading volume from both markets in the estimation. Likelihood ratio tests indicate the switching dummy variables become insignificant and the GARCH effects diminish but remain significant.

Modelling regulatory change V's volume of trading effects in HSIF and HSI volatility

In an earlier paper, we adopted a bi-variate BEKK–GARCH framework and employed a systematic approach to examine structural breaks in the Hang Seng Index and Index Futures market volatility. Switching dummy variables were included and tested in the variance equations to check for any structural changes in the autoregressive volatility structure due to the events that have taken place in the Hong Kong market surrounding the Asian markets crisis. In this paper, we include measures of daily trading volume from both markets in the estimation. Likelihood ratio tests indicate the switching dummy variables become insignificant and the GARCH effects diminish but remain significant. There is some evidence that the Sequential Arrival of Information Model (SIM) provides a platform to explain these market induced effects when volume of trade is accounted for.

Many-sample location and scale tests with quantile-function error distributions /by Azmeri Khan

This thesis, using a computer simulation, studies the effect of the normal distribution assumption on the power of several many-sample location and scale test procedures. It also suggests an almost robust parametric test, namely numerical likelihood ratio test (NLRT) for non-normal situations. The NLRT is found better than all of the tests considered. Some real life data sets were used as examples.

Assessment of spatiotemporal varying relationships between rainfall, land cover and surface water area using geographically weighted regression

Traditional regression techniques such as ordinary least squares (OLS) are often unable to accurately model spatially varying data and may ignore or hide local variations in model coefficients. A relatively new technique, geographically weighted regression (GWR) has been shown to greatly improve model performance compared to OLS in terms of higher R 2 and lower corrected Akaike information criterion (AICC). GWR models have the potential to improve reliabilities of the identified relationships by reducing spatial autocorrelations and by accounting for local variations and spatial non-stationarity between dependent and independent variables. In this study, GWR was used to examine the relationship between land cover, rainfall and surface water habitat in 149 sub-catchments in a predominately agricultural region covering 2.6 million ha in southeast Australia. The application of the GWR models revealed that the relationships between land cover, rainfall and surface water habitat display significant spatial non-stationarity. GWR showed improvements over analogous OLS models in terms of higher R 2 and lower AICC. The increased explanatory power of GWR was confirmed by the results of an approximate likelihood ratio test, which showed statistically significant improvements over analogous OLS models. The models suggest that the amount of surface water area in the landscape is related to anthropogenic drainage practices enhancing runoff to facilitate intensive agriculture and increased plantation forestry. However, with some key variables not present in our analysis, the strength of this relationship could not be qualified. GWR techniques have the potential to serve as a useful tool for environmental research and management across a broad range of scales for the investigation of spatially varying relationships.

Driver recognition based on dynamic handgrip pattern on steeling wheel

This paper proposes a novel biometric authentication method based on the recognition of drivers' dynamic handgrip on steering wheel. A pressure sensitive mat mounted on a steering wheel is employed to collect handgrip data exerted by the hands of drivers who intend to start the vehicle. Then, the likelihood-ratio-based classifier is designed to distinguish rightful driver of a car after analyzing their inherent dynamic features of grasping. The experimental results obtained in this study show that mean acceptance rates of 85.4% for the trained subjects and mean rejection rates of 82.65% for the un-trained ones are achieved by the classifier in the two batches of testing. It can be concluded that the driver verification approach based on dynamic handgrip recognition on steering wheel is a promising biometric technology and will be further explored in the near future in smart car design.

Driver verification based on handgrip recognition on steering wheel

This paper presents a novel driver verification algorithm based on the recognition of handgrip patterns on steering wheel. A pressure sensitive mat mounted on a steering wheel is employed to collect a series of pressure images exerted by the hands of the drivers who intend to start the vehicle. Then, feature extraction from those images is carried out through two major steps: Quad-Tree-based multi-resolution decomposition on the images and Principle Component Analysis (PCA)-based dimension reduction, followed by implementing a likelihood-ratio classifier to distinguish drivers into known or unknown ones. The experimental results obtained in this study show that the mean acceptance rates of 78.15% and 78.22% for the trained subjects and the mean rejection rates of 93.92% and 90.93% to the un-trained ones are achieved in two trials, respectively. It can be concluded that the driver verification approach based on the handgrip recognition on steering wheel is promising and will be further explored in the near future.

The effect of school suspensions and arrests on subsequent adolescent antisocial behavior in Australia and the United States

Purpose: To examine the effect of school suspensions and arrests (i.e., being taken into police custody) on subsequent adolescent antisocial behavior such as violence and crime, after controlling for established risk and protective factors in Victoria, Australia and Washington State, United States (U.S.). Methods: This article reports on analyses of two points of data collected 1 year apart within a cross-national longitudinal study of the development of antisocial behavior, substance use, and related behaviors in approximately 4000 students aged 12 to 16 years in Victoria, Australia and Washington State, U.S. Students completed a modified version of the Communities That Care self-report survey of behavior, as well as risk and protective factors across five domains (individual, family, peer, school, and community). Multivariate logistic regression analyses investigate the effect of school suspensions and arrests on subsequent antisocial behavior, holding constant individual, family, peer, school, and community level influences such as being female, student belief in the moral order, emotional control, and attachment to mother. Results: At the first assessment, school suspensions and arrests were more commonly reported in Washington, and school suspensions significantly increased the likelihood of antisocial behavior 12 months later, after holding constant established risk and protective factors (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1–2.1, _p < .05). Predictors of antisocial behavior spanned risk and protective factors across five individual and ecological areas of risk. Risk factors in this study were pre-existing antisocial behavior (OR 3.6, CI 2.7–4.7, _p < .001), association with antisocial peers (OR 1.8, CI 1.4–2.4, _p < .001), academic failure (OR 1.3, CI 1.1–1.5, _p < .01), and perceived availability of drugs in the community (OR 1.3, CI 1.1–1.5, _p < .001). Protective factors included being female (OR 0.7, CI 0.5–0.9, _p < .01), student belief in the moral order (OR 0.8, CI 0.6–1.0, p < .05), student emotional control (OR 0.7, CI 0.6–0.8, _p < .001), and attachment to mother (OR 0.8, CI 0.7–1.0, _p < .05). Conclusions:  School suspensions may increase the likelihood of future antisocial behavior. Further research is required to both replicate this finding and establish the mechanisms by which school suspensions exert their effects.

Parent-reported health status of overweight and obese Australian primary school children: a cross-sectional population survey

Introduction: Childhood overweight/obesity is associated with poor physical and psychosocial health in clinical samples. However, there is little information on the health status of overweight and obese children in the community, who now represent a large proportion of the child population. We examined parent-reported child health and well-being and parent concern about child weight by body mass index (BMI) category in a population sample of primary school children.

Design: A stratified two-stage random cluster sample of 24 primary schools representative of the state of Victoria, Australia.

Measures: BMI (weight/height2) transformed to normalised Z-scores using the 1990 UK Growth Reference; the Child Health Questionnaire (CHQ), a 13-scale 50-item parent-completed measure of health and well-being; parent self-reported height and weight; parent concern about child's weight.

Results: Data were available for 2863 children aged 5-13 y (50.5% male), of whom 17% were overweight and 5.7% obese. Using logistic regression analyses with 'normal weight' as the referent category, obese boys were at greater risk of poor health (ie <15th centile) on seven of the 12 CHQ scales: Physical Functioning (odds ratio (OR) 2.8), Bodily Pain (OR 1.8), General Health (OR 3.5), Mental Health (OR 2.8), Self Esteem (OR 1.8), Parent Impact¾Emotional (OR 1.7) and Parent Impact¾Time (OR 1.9). Obese girls were at greater risk of poor health on only two scales: General Health (OR 2.1) and Self Esteem (OR 1.8). Forty-two percent of parents with obese children and 81% with overweight children did not report concern about their child's weight. Parents were more likely to report concern if the child was obese (OR 21.3), overweight (OR 3.5) or underweight (OR 5.4) than normal weight (P<0.05). Concern was not related to child gender, parental BMI or parental education after controlling for child BMI. Perceived health and well-being of overweight/obese children varied little by weight category of the reporting parent (overweight vs non-overweight).

Conclusions: Parents were more likely to report poorer health and well-being for overweight and obese children (particularly obese boys). Parental concern about their child's weight was strongly associated with their child's actual BMI. Despite this, most parents of overweight and obese children did not report poor health or well-being, and a high proportion did not report concern. This has implications for the early identification of such children and the success of prevention and intervention efforts.

Predictors of hysterectomy as a treatment for menstrual symptoms

Background: Hysterectomy is a common procedure in Australia; approximately 1 in 5 Australian women undergoing a hysterectomy by the age of 50 for indications such as fibroids, disorders of menstruation (including excessive or irregular menstrual bleeding), and endometriosis. However, little is known about the characteristics of women who have had the procedure or the predictors of hysterectomy as a treatment for menstrual problems. This study of 687 middle-aged Australian women suffering from menstrual symptoms aimed to identify the common health and demographic characteristics that were likely to lead to hysterectomy for the treatment of these problems.

Methods: A cross-sectional and a prospective cohort study were undertaken as a substudy of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health (Women's Health Australia). Women from the mid-aged cohort of the Women's Health Australia study who identified having menstrual problems (n = 715) in the 1996 and 1998 surveys or who had undergone a hysterectomy (n = 218) during that time were recruited. A self-administered instrument was mailed to the 933 women in 2000. Data were analyzed using backward logistic regression to identify the characteristics that increased the likelihood of women undergoing hysterectomy for the treatment of menstrual problems.

Results: Factors that increased the likelihood of hysterectomy as a treatment for menstrual problems were varied. They included the number of menstrual symptoms experienced (odds ratio [OR], 1.63; p < .005) or conditions diagnosed (such as fibroids or excessive menstrual bleeding; OR, 2.5; p < .0005), a perception that information was available about menstrual problems (OR, 1.16; p < .001), being influenced in the decision making process to elect a treatment option (OR, 1.25; p < .025), and dissatisfaction with the other treatments tried before hysterectomy (OR, 0.63; p < .0005).

Conclusions: Hysterectomy seem to be the treatment of choice for women experiencing a number of menstrual problems and less than satisfactory outcomes with other treatment options. Importantly, women appear to be making decisions based on the perception of sufficient information available about their menstrual problems, regardless of whether or not this was actually the case. Women are being influenced in their decision-making process to undergo a hysterectomy by health professionals, such as general practitioners and gynecologists.

Ambulance call triage outcomes for patients reporting pain : a retrospective cross-sectional analysis of pain score versus traige level

Objective: To identify any association between the response priority code generated during calls to the ambulance communication centre and patient reports of pain severity.

Methods: A retrospective analysis of patient care records was undertaken for all patients transported by paramedics over a 7-day period. The primary research interest was the association between the response code allocated at the time of telephone triage and the initial pain severity score recorded using a numeric rating scale (NRS). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression methods were used to analyse the association between the response priority variable and explanatory variables.

Results: There were 1246 cases in which both an initial pain score using the NRS and a response code were recorded. Of these cases, 716/1246 (57.5%) were associated with a code 1 ("time-critical") response. After adjusting for gender, age, cause of pain and duration of pain, a multivariate logistic regression analysis found no significant change in the odds of a patient in pain receiving a time-critical response compared with patients who had no pain, regardless of their initial pain score (NRS 1–3, odds ratio (OR) 1.11, 95% CI 0.7 to 1.8; NRS 4–7, OR 1.12, 95% CI 0.7 to 1.8; NRS 8–10, OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.5 to 1.4).

Conclusion: The severity of pain experienced by the patient appeared to have no influence on the priority (urgency) of the dispatch response. Triage systems used to prioritise ambulance calls and decide the urgency of response or type of referral options should consider pain severity to facilitate timely and humane care.

Polyunsaturated fats in meat from Merino, first- and second-cross sheep slaughtered as yearlings

This study examined the level of long chain omega-3 and omega-6 polyunsaturated fats, the ratio of polyunsaturated fat to saturated fat (PUFA/SFA) and the ratio of omega-6 to omega-3 (n-6/n-3) fat in sheep grown under grazing conditions in Australia. The sheep genotypes used were Poll Dorset_growth × Border Leicester Merino (PDg × BLM), Poll Dorset_growth × Merino (PDg × M), Poll Dorsetmuscling × Merino (PDm × M), Border Leicester × Merino (BL × M) and Merino × Merino (M × M). Loin muscles (Longissimus lumborum) collected from 40 ewe and wether sheep slaughtered at 14 months of age were processed for fatty acid determination. After frozen storage, 20 g samples were minced and a 7 g homogenate was processed for muscle lipid extraction using a chloroform:methanol (2:1) procedure. There was an increase in PUFA/SFA as the proportion of Merino genetics increased in the progeny (second-cross < first-cross < Merino), but this was not shown in the n-6/n-3 ratio. The PUFA/SFA trend appeared to be associated with an increase in the level of total polyunsaturated fats, but not a decrease in the level of total saturated fats. The results demonstrate that there is a need to improve the PUFA/SFA content in first- and second-cross animals which are mainly used for meat production in Australia so as to maintain the healthy lipids in meat. Nutritional manipulation through feeding systems or selection of sires for greater heritability of omega-3 fat deposition may be suitable pathways to elevate the ratio of polyunsaturated fatty acids, and in particular omega-3.

Waist circumference, waist-hip ratio and BMI and their correlation with cardiovascular risk factors in Australian adults

Objectives. To compare body mass index (BMI), waist circumference and waist–hip ratio (WHR) as indices of obesity and assess the respective associations with type 2 diabetes, hypertension and dyslipidaemia.

Design and setting. A national sample of 11 247 Australians aged ≥25 years was examined in 2000 in a cross-sectional survey.

Main outcome measures. The examination included a fasting blood sample, standard 2-h 75-g oral glucose tolerance test, blood pressure measurements and questionnaires to assess treatment for dyslipidaemia and hypertension. BMI, waist circumference and WHR were measured to assess overweight and obesity.

Results. The prevalence of obesity amongst Australian adults defined by BMI, waist circumference and WHR was 20.8, 30.5 and 15.8% respectively. The unadjusted odds ratio for the fourth vs. first quartile of each obesity measurement showed that WHR had the strongest relationship with type 2 diabetes, dyslipidaemia (women only) and hypertension. Following adjustment for age, however, there was little difference between the three measures of obesity, with the possible exceptions of hypertension in women, where BMI had a stronger association, and dyslipidaemia in women and type 2 diabetes in men, where WHR was marginally superior.

Conclusions. Waist circumference, BMI and WHR identified different proportions of the population, as measured by both prevalence of obesity and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors. Whilst WHR had the strongest correlations with CVD risk factors before adjustment for age, the three obesity measures performed similarly after adjustment for age. Given the difficulty of using age-adjusted associations in the clinical setting, these results suggest that given appropriate cut-off points, WHR is the most useful measure of obesity to use to identify individuals with CVD risk factors.

Downside beta and the cross-sectional determinants of listed property trust returns

This study examines the importance of downside beta when seeking to explain variations in listed property trust (LPT) returns in Australia between 1993 and 2005. The results reveal that downside beta outperforms conventional beta and provides higher explanatory power to the cross-sectional LPT return variations. The results also indicate that investors only require a premium for downside risk. However, the explanatory power of downside beta has diminished once the co-kurtosis of LPTs is controlled. Interestingly, the results also reveal that by itself downside beta is unable to fully explain returns in line with strong evidence for momentum and book-to-market ratio. The findings provide additional insights for investors and real estate analysts into the pricing of LPTs.

Individual, social and physical environmental correlates of children's active free-play : a cross-sectional study

Background
Children's unstructured outdoor free-play (or active free-play) has the potential to make an important contribution to children's overall physical activity levels. Limited research has, however, examined physical activity in this domain. This study examined associations between individual, social and physical environmental factors and the frequency with which children play in particular outdoor locations outside school hours. This study also investigated whether the frequency of playing in outdoor locations was associated with children's overall physical activity levels.

Methods
Participants including 8-9 year old children and their parents (n = 187) were recruited from a selection of primary schools of varying socioeconomic status across metropolitan Melbourne, Australia. Parents completed a survey and children's overall physical activity levels were measured by accelerometry. Regression models examined the odds of children playing in various outdoor settings according to particular correlates.

Results
Inverse associations were found between preference for activities not involving physical activity, and the likelihood of children playing in the yard at home on the weekend (OR = 0.65; CI = 0.45,0.95). Positive correlates of children playing in their own street included: parental perceptions that it was safe for their child to play in their street (weekdays [OR = 6.46; CI = 2.84,14.71], weekend days [OR = 6.01; CI = 2.68,13.47]); children having many friends in their neighbourhood (OR = 2.63; CI = 1.21,5.76); and living in a cul-de-sac (weekdays [OR = 3.99; CI = 1.65,9.66], weekend days [OR = 3.49; CI = 1.49,8.16]). Positive correlates of more frequent play in the park/playground on weekdays included family going to the park together on a weekly basis on weekdays (OR = 6.8; CI = 3.4,13.6); and on weekend days (OR = 7.36; CI = 3.6,15.0). No differences in mean mins/day of moderate-vigorous physical activity were found between children in the highest and lowest tertiles for frequency of playing in particular outdoor locations.

Conclusion
The presence of friends, safety issues and aspects of the built environment were reported by parents to be associated with children's active free-play in outdoor locations. Future research needs to further examine associations with time spent in active free-play and objectively-measured overall physical activity levels. It is also important to investigate strategies for developing a supportive social and physical environment that provides opportunities for children to engage in active free-play.

Leptin in depressed women : Cross-sectional and longitudinal data from an epidemiologic study

Background There is conflicting evidence regarding levels of leptin in depression. In this study we aimed to investigate the relationship between serum leptin level and depression in a community sample of women using both cross-sectional and longitudinal data.

Methods From among 510 women aged 20–78 yr, 83 were identified with a lifetime history of major depressive disorder or dysthymia, ascertained using the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV-TR Research Version, Non-patient edition (SCID-I/NP). Serum leptin levels were measured by radioimmunoassay. Medication use and lifestyle were self-reported and body mass index (BMI) determined from measures of height and weight.

Results Using multiple linear regression, serum leptin levels were greater among women with a lifetime history of depression compared to women without any history of depression, independent of BMI. Adjusted geometric mean values of serum leptin were 16.37 (95%CI 14.70–18.23) ng/mL for depressed and 14.46 (95%CI 13.79–15.16) ng/mL for non-depressed women (P = 0.039). The hazard ratio (HR) for a de novo depressive disorder over five years increased 2.56-fold for each standard deviation increase in log-transformed serum leptin among non-smokers and this was not explained by differences in BMI, medications or other lifestyle factors (HR = 2.56, 95%CI 1.52-4.30). No association was observed for smokers.

Limitations There is potential for unrecognised confounding, recall bias and transient changes in body composition.

Conclusion Women with a lifetime history of depression have elevated levels of serum leptin, and elevated serum leptin predicts subsequent development of a depressive disorder.