Discriminating DDoS attacks from flash crowds using flow correlation coefficient

Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attack is a critical threat to the Internet, and botnets are usually the engines behind them. Sophisticated botmasters attempt to disable detectors by mimicking the traffic patterns of flash crowds. This poses a critical challenge to those who defend against DDoS attacks. In our deep study of the size and organization of current botnets, we found that the current attack flows are usually more similar to each other compared to the flows of flash crowds. Based on this, we proposed a discrimination algorithm using the flow correlation coefficient as a similarity metric among suspicious flows. We formulated the problem, and presented theoretical proofs for the feasibility of the proposed discrimination method in theory. Our extensive experiments confirmed the theoretical analysis and demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed method in practice.

Application of rank correlation, clustering and classification in information security

This article is devoted to experimental investigation of a novel application of a clustering technique introduced by the authors recently in order to use robust and stable consensus functions in information security, where it is often necessary to process large data sets and monitor outcomes in real time, as it is required, for example, for intrusion detection. Here we concentrate on a particular case of application to profiling of phishing websites. First, we apply several independent clustering algorithms to a randomized sample of data to obtain independent initial clusterings. Silhouette index is used to determine the number of clusters. Second, rank correlation is used to select a subset of features for dimensionality reduction. We investigate the effectiveness of the Pearson Linear Correlation Coefficient, the Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient and the Goodman--Kruskal Correlation Coefficient in this application. Third, we use a consensus function to combine independent initial clusterings into one consensus clustering. Fourth, we train fast supervised classification algorithms on the resulting consensus clustering in order to enable them to process the whole large data set as well as new data. The precision and recall of classifiers at the final stage of this scheme are critical for the effectiveness of the whole procedure. We investigated various combinations of several correlation coefficients, consensus functions, and a variety of supervised classification algorithms.

Selected Ranked Set Sampling

This paper proposes a sampling procedure called selected ranked set sampling (SRSS), in which only selected observations from a ranked set sample (RSS) are measured. This paper describes the optimal linear estimation of location and scale parameters based on SRSS, and for some distributions it presents the required tables for optimal selections. For these distributions, the optimal SRSS estimators are compared with the other popular simple random sample (SRS) and RSS estimators. In every situation the estimators based on SRSS are found advantageous at least in some respect, compared to those obtained from SRS or RSS. The SRSS method with errors in ranking is also described. The relative precision of the estimator of the population mean is investigated for different degrees of correlations between the actual and erroneous ranking. The paper reports the minimum value of the correlation coefficient between the actual and the erroneous ranking required for achieving better precision with respect to the usual SRS estimator and with respect to the RSS estimator.

Improving the precision of the accumulated oxygen deficit using VO2-power regression points from below and above the lactate threshold

The accumulated oxygen deficit (AOD) method assumes a linear VO₂-power relationship for exercise intensities increasing from below the lactate threshold (BLT) to above the lactate threshold (ALT). Factors that were likely to effect the linearity of the VO₂-power regression and the precision of the estimated total energy demand (ETED) were investigated. These included the slow component of VO₂ kinetics (SC), a forced resting y-intercept and exercise intensities BLT and ALT. Criteria for linearity and precision included the Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) of the VO₂-power relationship, the length of the 95% confidence interval (95% CI) of the ETED and the standard error of the predicted value (SEP), respectively. Eight trained male and one trained female triathlete completed the required cycling tests to establish the AOD when pedalling at 80 rev/min. The influence of the SC on the linear extrapolation of the ETED was reduced by measuring VO₂ after three min of exercise. Measuring VO₂ at this time provided a new linear extrapolation method consisting of ten regression points spread evenly from BLT and ALT. This method produced an ETED with increased precision compared to using regression equations developed from intensities BLT with no forced y-intercept value; (95%CI (L), 0.70±0.26 versus 1.85±1.10, P<0.01; SEP(L/Watt), 0.07±0.02 versus 0.28±0.17; P<0.01). Including a forced y-intercept value with five regression points either BLT or ALT increased the precision of estimating the total energy demand to the same level as when using 10 regression points, (5 points BLT + y-intercept versus 5 points ALT + y-intercept versus 10 points; 95%CI(l), 0.61±0.32, 0.87±0.40, 0.70±0.26; SEP(L/Watt), 0.07±0.03, 0.08±0.04, 0.07±0.02; p>0.05). The VO₂-power regression can be designed using a reduced number of regression points... ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR

Calibration and reliability of a school food checklist: a new tool for assessing school food and beverage consumption

There is a pressing need in Australia and other countries to develop systems for monitoring secular trends in childhood obesity and related behavioural and environmental determinants. Energy from foods and beverages consumed at school is an accessible indicator of children’s eating patterns and we have developed a school food checklist (SFC) to measure this. The SFC records the number of serves and source (home, canteen, vending machine) of 20 food and beverage categories. This study aims to assess the accuracy and to calibrate the SFC by comparing it to a weighed record (WR) and to evaluate inter-recorder reliability. Participants were 910 primary school children aged 5 to 12 years from a rural township in Victoria, Australia. WR were collected from a nonrandom sub-sample of 106 and a second sub-sample (n=46) had intake measured twice using the SFC to assess inter-recorder reliability. Mean energy values were 2992 kJ ± 924 and 3008 kJ ± 952 for the SFC and WR respectively and the correlation coefficient was strong (Pearson r = 0.77). The mean difference between the WR and SFC methods was 15 kJ (95% CI, -107 kJ to 138 kJ) and the limits of agreement (+2 standard deviations) were ± 1270 kJ. The SFC overestimated the energy/serve of breads and fruit drinks and under-estimated energy/serve from fat spreads, biscuits/crackers, muesli/fruit bars and fruit. Inter-recorder reliability was good (kappa 0.51). The SFC was designed to measure energy from food and beverages in schools. It has good accuracy and reliability and the revised version should further improve accuracy of the instrument.

Does interpersonal psychotherapy improve clinical care for adolescents with depression attending a rural child and adolescent mental health service? Study protocol for a cluster randomised feasibility trial

Background: Depression amongst adolescents is a costly societal problem. Little research documents the effectiveness of public mental health services in mapping this problem. Further, it is not clear whether usual care in such services can be improved via clinician training in a relevant evidence based intervention. One such intervention, found to be effective and easily learned amongst novice clinicians, is Interpersonal Psychotherapy (IPT). The study described in the current paper has two main objectives. First, it aims to investigate the impact on clinical care of implementing Interpersonal Psychotherapy for Adolescents for the treatment of adolescent depression within a rural mental health service compared with Treatment as Usual (TAU). The second objective is to record the process and challenges (i.e. feasibility, acceptability, sustainability) associated with implementing and evaluating an evidence-based intervention within a community service. This paper outlines the study rationale and design for this community based research trial.

Methods/design: The study involves a cluster randomisation trial to be conducted within a Child and Adolescent Mental Health Service in rural Australia. All clinicians in the service will be invited to participate.  Participating clinicians will be randomised via block design at each of four sites to (a) training and delivery of IPT, or (b) TAU. The primary measure of impact on care will be a clinically significant change in depressive  symptomatology, with secondary outcomes involving treatment satisfaction and changes in other symptomatology. Participating adolescents with significant depressive symptomatology, aged 12 to 18 years, will complete assessment measures at Weeks 0, 12 and 24 of treatment. They will also complete a depression inventory once a month during that period. This study aims to recruit 60 adolescent participants and their parent/guardian/s. A power analysis is not indicated as an intra-class correlation coefficient will be calculated and used to inform sample size calculations for subsequent large-scale trials. Qualitative data regarding process implementation will be collected quarterly from focus groups with participating clinicians over 18 months, plus phone interviews with participating adolescents and parent/guardians at 12 weeks and 24 weeks of treatment. The focus group qualitative data will be analysed using a Fourth Generation Evaluation methodology that includes a constant comparative cyclic analysis method.

Discussion: This study protocol will be informative for researchers and clinicians interested in considering, designing and/or conducting cluster randomised trials within community practice such as mental health services.

Automated attention flags in chronic disease care planning

Objectives: To assess the value of computerised decision support in the management of chronic respiratory disease by comparing agreement between three respiratory specialists, general practitioners (care coordinators), and decision support software.
Methods: Care guidelines for two chronic obstructive pulmonary disease projects of the SA HealthPlus Coordinated Care Trial were formulated. Decision support software, Care Plan On-Line (CPOL), was created to represent the intent of these guidelines via automated attention flags to appear in patients' electronic medical records. For a random sample of 20 patients with care plans, decisions about the use of nine additional services (eg,.smoking cessation, pneumococcal vaccination) were compared between the respiratory specialists, the patients' GPs and the CPOL attention flags.
Results: Agreement among the specialists was at the lower end of moderate (intraclass correlation coefficient [ICC], 0.48; 95% CI, 0.39-0.56), with a 20% rate of contradictory decisions. Agreement with recommendations of specialists was moderate to poor for GPs (le, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.33-0.66) and moderate to good for CPOL (K, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.55-0.90). CPOL agreement with GPs was moderate to poor (le, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.24-0.58). GPs were less likely than specialists or CPOL to decide in favour of an additional service (P< 0.001). CPOL was 87% accurate as an indicator of specialist decisions. It gave a 16% false-positive rate according to specialist decisions, and flagged 61% of decisions where GPs said No and specialists said Yes.
Conclusions: Automated decision support may provide GPs with improved access to the intent of guidelines; however, further investigation is required.

Benefits of a year-long workplace weight loss program on cardiovascular risk factors

Objective: To assess the effectiveness of a year-long workplace weight loss program in reducing risk factors of coronary heart disease.

Design: A randomised, controlled study of low fat (25% of dietary energy) diet- and/or moderate exercise-induced weight loss interventions in free-living, middle-aged men. Compliance was monitored from food and activity diaries at monthly blood pressure measurement sessions. Blood was sampled and body composition determined from dual energy X-ray absorptiometry before and after 12 months.

Subjects and setting: Fifty-eight overweight men (mean [+ or -] SD age: 43.4 [+ or -] 5.7 years; BMI 29.0 [+ or -] 2.6 kg/[m.sup.2]), recruited from a national corporation, were instructed into diet (n = 18) exercise (a 21) or control (n = 19) groups over 12 months; 16 control subjects combined diet and exercise (n = 16) for the subsequent 12 months.

Main outcome measures: At 12 months, weight, total and regional fat and lean mass, dietary energy and percentage dietary fat intake, physical activity indices, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, serum insulin, blood lipids and lipoproteins.

Statistical analyses: Differences between groups were tested using analysis of variance with Scheffe post hoc test. Differences between pre- and post-intervention variables were tested using Students' paired t-tests. Pearson's correlation coefficient and univariate linear regression identified association between dependent variables, multiple stepwise regression identified specific predictors.

Results: Weight loss with either diet or exercise resulted in a reduction in systolic blood pressure (-3.3 [+ or -] 1.7%), diastolic blood pressure (-4.8 [+ or -] 1.3%) and LDL cholesterol (-3.9 [+ or -] 2.8%), a rise in HDL cholesterol (+10.0 [+ or -] 3.8%) and a change in the LDL/HDL ratio (-8.9 [+ or -] 3.5%). Abdominal fat loss (-26.8 [+ or -] 3.6% after diet; -16.6 [+ or -] 4.5% after exercise; -21.0 [+ or -] 4.7% after diet and exercise) was the strongest predictor of change in blood pressure: twenty percent abdominal fat loss predicted a percentage fall of 2.4 [+ or -] 0.05% in systolic blood pressure and 5.4 [+ or -] 0.07% in diastolic blood pressure. Greater abdominal fat loss was associated with the greatest decrease in serum insulin (P < 0.05).

Conclusion: Modest changes in diet and exercise effected by a low cost workplace-based education program achieved weight loss, loss of abdominal fat, reduced blood pressure and serum insulin and improved blood lipid concentrations. (Nutr Diet 2002;59:87-96)

A simplified stroke rehabilitation assessment of movement instrument

Background and Purpose. An efficient, reliable, and valid instrument for assessing motor function in patients with stroke is needed by both clinicians and researchers. To improve administration efficiency, we applied the multidimensional Rasch model to the 30-item, 3-subscale Stroke Rehabilitation Assessment of Movement (STREAM) instrument to produce a concise, reliable, and valid instrument (simplified STREAM [S-STREAM]) for measuring motor function in patients with stroke. Subjects and Methods. The STREAM (consisting of 3 subscales: upper-limb movements, lower-limb movements, and mobility) was administered to 351 subjects with first stroke occurrence and a median time after stroke of 19.5 months. The unidimensionality of each subscale of the STREAM first was verified with unidimensional Rasch analysis. Each subscale of the STREAM then was simplified by deleting redundant items on the basis of expert opinion and the results of the Rasch analysis. The Rasch reliability of the S-STREAM and the concurrent validity of the S-STREAM with the STREAM were examined with multidimensional Rasch analysis and the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), respectively. Results. After deleting the items that did not fit the Rasch model, we found that the 8-item upper-limb movement subscale, the 9-item lower-limb movement subscale, and the 10-item mobility subscale assessed single, unidimensional upper-limb movements, lower-limb movements, and mobility, respectively. We selected 5 items from each subscale to construct the S-STREAM and found that the reliability of each subscale of the resulting simplified instrument was high (Rasch reliability coefficients of [greater than or equal to] .91). The agreement between the subscale scores (Rasch estimates) of the S-STREAM and those of the STREAM was excellent (ICC of [greater than or equal to] .99, with a lower limit for the 95% confidence interval of [greater than or equal to] .985), indicating good concurrent validity of the S-STREAM with the STREAM. Discussion and Conclusion. The S-STREAM demonstrates high Rasch reliability, unidimensionality, and concurrent validity with the STREAM in patients with stroke. Furthermore, the S-STREAM is efficient to administer, as it consists of only half the number of items in the original STREAM. Additional studies to examine other psychometric properties (eg, predictive validity and responsiveness) of the S-STREAM or its psychometric properties in various recovery stages after stroke are needed to further establish its utility in both clinical and research settings.

Psychometric properties of the modified Emory functional ambulation profile in stroke patients

Objective: To examine the test – retest reliability, convergent and predictive validity and responsiveness of the modified Emory Functional Ambulation Profile (mEFAP) in assessing gait function in stroke patients undergoing rehabilitation. Subjects: Forty subacute stroke inpatients were enrolled in the validity and responsiveness study. Twenty chronic patients participated in the reliability study. Setting: Rehabilitation department of a medical centre. Design: In the validity and responsiveness study, patients were tested using the mEFAP, 10-m walking speed test, Barthel Index and Rivermead Mobility Index at admission and at discharge. For the reliability study, the patients completed the mEFAP twice one week apart. Results: The patients' performances on the mEFAP were moderately to highly correlated with results of the 10-m walking speed test and Rivermead Mobility Index (absolute correlation coefficients ≥ 0.67), indicating good convergent validity. Patients' performance on the mEFAP at admission was moderately correlated with the Barthel Index and Rivermead Mobility Index scores at discharge (Spearman's rank correlation coefficients = -0.52 and -0.78, respectively), indicating good predictive validity. The standardized response mean of the mEFAP was 1.1 (P < 0.0001), suggesting good responsiveness. The intraclass correlation coefficient ICC(3,1) for the mEFAP was 0.997, indicating excellent test – retest reliability. Conclusions: Our results provide strong evidence that the mEFAP has good reliability, validity and responsiveness for assessing stroke patients undergoing rehabilitation. The mEFAP is a useful scale for measuring walking function and recovery in stroke patients.

The performance of solarscan : an automated dermoscopy image analysis instrument for the diagnosis of primary melanoma

Objective To describe the diagnostic performance of SolarScan (Polartechnics Ltd, Sydney, Australia), an automated instrument for the diagnosis of primary melanoma.

Design Images from a data set of 2430 lesions (382 were melanomas; median Breslow thickness, 0.36 mm) were divided into a training set and an independent test set at a ratio of approximately 2:1. A diagnostic algorithm (absolute diagnosis of melanoma vs benign lesion and estimated probability of melanoma) was developed and its performance described on the test set. High-quality clinical and dermoscopy images with a detailed patient history for 78 lesions (13 of which were melanomas) from the test set were given to various clinicians to compare their diagnostic accuracy with that of SolarScan.

Setting Seven specialist referral centers and 2 general practice skin cancer clinics from 3 continents. Comparison between clinician diagnosis and SolarScan diagnosis was by 3 dermoscopy experts, 4 dermatologists, 3 trainee dermatologists, and 3 general practitioners.

Patients Images of the melanocytic lesions were obtained from patients who required either excision or digital monitoring to exclude malignancy.

Main Outcome Measures Sensitivity, specificity, the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, median probability for the diagnosis of melanoma, a direct comparison of SolarScan with diagnoses performed by humans, and interinstrument and intrainstrument reproducibility.

Results The melanocytic-only diagnostic model was highly reproducible in the test set and gave a sensitivity of 91% (95% confidence interval [CI], 86%-96%) and specificity of 68% (95% CI, 64%-72%) for melanoma. SolarScan had comparable or superior sensitivity and specificity (85% vs 65%) compared with those of experts (90% vs 59%), dermatologists (81% vs 60%), trainees (85% vs 36%; P =.06), and general practitioners (62% vs 63%). The intraclass correlation coefficient of intrainstrument repeatability was 0.86 (95% CI, 0.83-0.88), indicating an excellent repeatability. There was no significant interinstrument variation (P = .80).

Conclusions SolarScan is a robust diagnostic instrument for pigmented or partially pigmented melanocytic lesions of the skin. Preliminary data suggest that its performance is comparable or superior to that of a range of clinician groups. However, these findings should be confirmed in a formal clinical trial.

Cross-national agreement on disability weights:the Eurpoean disability weights project

Background: Disability weights represent the relative severity of disease stages to be incorporated in summary measures of population health. The level of agreement on disability weights in Western European countries was investigated with different valuation methods.

Methods: Disability weights for fifteen disease stages were elicited empirically in panels of health care professionals or non-health care professionals with an academic background following a strictly standardised procedure. Three valuation methods were used: a visual analogue scale (VAS); the time trade-off technique (TTO); and the person trade-off technique (PTO). Agreement among England, France, the Netherlands, Spain, and Sweden on the three disability weight sets was analysed by means of an intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) in the framework of generalisability theory. Agreement among the two types of panels was similarly assessed.

Results: A total of 232 participants were included. Similar rankings of disease stages across countries were found with all valuation methods. The ICC of country agreement on disability weights ranged from 0.56 [95% CI, 0.52–0.62] with PTO to 0.72 [0.70–0.74] with VAS and 0.72 [0.69–0.75] with TTO. The ICC of agreement between health care professionals and non-health care professionals ranged from 0.64 [0.58–0.68] with PTO to 0.73 [0.71–0.75] with VAS and 0.74 [0.72–0.77] with TTO.

Conclusions: Overall, the study supports a reasonably high level of agreement on disability weights in Western European countries with VAS and TTO methods, which focus on individual preferences, but a lower level of agreement with the PTO method, which focuses more on societal values in resource allocation.

The relative and absolute reliability of two balance performance measures in chronic stroke patients

Purpose. To examine the relative reliability and absolute reliability of the Berg Balance Scale (BBS) and the Postural Assessment Scale for Stroke Patients (PASS) in chronic stroke patients. Method. A total of 52 mild to moderate stroke patients, who had a stroke more than 6 months previously, participated in the study. Both balance measures were administered twice, seven days apart, to the patients. A relative reliability index (intra-class correlation coefficient, ICC2,1) was used to examine the level of agreement between test and retest. Absolute reliability indices, including the Bland and Altman method, the standard error of measurement (SEM), and the smallest real differences (SRD), were used to define the extent to which a balance score varies on test-retest measurements. Results. Test-retest agreements were high (ICC2,1: BBS = 0.98; PASS = 0.97), indicating excellent agreement from a relative perspective. The SEM of the BBS and PASS, representing the smallest change threshold that indicates a real improvement for a group of individuals, were 2.4 and 1.1, respectively. The SRD of the BBS and PASS were 6.7 and 3.2, respectively, exhibiting the smallest change threshold that indicates a real improvement for a single individual. Conclusions. The test-retest agreements of the BBS and PASS were high in mild to moderate chronic stroke patients. The thresholds of both measures to detect real change are acceptable in research and clinical settings.

Developing and validating a questionnaire to measure spirituality : a psychometric process

The purpose of the paper is to describe the processes undertaken to evaluate the psychometric properties of a questionnaire developed to measure spirituality and examine the relationship between spirituality and coping in young adults with diabetes.

The specific validation processes used were: content and face validity, construct validity using factor analysis, reliability and internal consistency using test-retest reliability and Cronbach’s alpha correlation coefficient.

The exploratory factor analysis revealed four factors: self-awareness, the importance of spiritual beliefs, spiritual practices, and spiritual needs. The items on the Spirituality Questionnaire (SQ) revealed factor loading ≥ 0.5. Reliability processes indicated that the SQ is reliable: Cronbach’s alpha 0.94 for the global SQ and between 0.80-0.91 for the four subscales. Test-retest statistic examination revealed stability of the responses at two time points 10 weeks apart.

The final questionnaire consists of 29 items and the psychometrics indicated that it is valid and reliable.

Reliability of surface EMG measurements of the quadriceps during maximal isometric contractions following water immersion

Background: The influence of water immersion on neuromuscular function is of importance to a number of disciplines; however, the reliability of surface electromyography (SEMG) following water immersion is not known. This study examined the reliability of SEMG amplitude during maximal voluntary isometric contractions (MVICs) of the vastus lateralis following water immersion.

Methods: Using a Biodex isokinetic dynamometer and in a randomized order, 12 healthy male subjects performed four MVICs at 60° knee flexion on both the dominant and nondominant kicking legs, and the SEMG was recorded. Each subject's dominant and nondominant kicking leg was then randomly assigned to have SEMG electrodes removed or covered during 15 min of water immersion (20°C–25°C). Following water immersion, subjects performed a further four MVICs.

Results: Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and the relative standard error of measurement (%SEM) of SEMG amplitude showed moderate to high trial-to-trial reliability when electrodes were covered (0.93% and 2.79%) and removed (0.95% and 2.10%, respectively).

Conclusions: The results of the this study indicate that SEMG amplitude of the vastus lateralis may be accurately determined during maximal voluntary contractions following water immersion if electrodes are either removed or covered with water-resistive tape during the immersion.