Understanding informations systems outsourcing success and risks through the lens of cognitive biases

Because outsourcing of information systems (IS) is now widespread, it is generally assumed to be successful. It is also often assumed that outsourcing risks are easily managed. In this paper we adopt an “evidence based management” approach to first test these assumptions through a qualitative metaanalysis of academic studies into IS outsourcing outcomes. Our research reveals a shortage of reliable and valid evidence for outsourcing’s benefits, and for the level of risk involved. We then use data from a series of focus groups to explain the paradox of widespread adoption of a strategy with limited empirical support. These focus groups were interpreted through the lens of research on a
range of cognitive mechanisms and biases that are known to affect decision makers. We conclude that cognitive mechanisms that are likely to affect sourcing decisions include framing biases, cognitive dissonance, attribution error, and the “optimism”, “confirmation”, “disconfirmation” and “overconfidence” biases. Given the shortage of supporting evidence, and the potential for these biases to operate, we argue that researchers need to be more critical in their analysis of reports of the success and risks of IS outsourcing.

Dissonance-based interventions for health behaviour change : a systematic review

Purpose Increasing evidence suggests that various health behaviours are amenable to change following the induction of cognitive dissonance. This systematic review sought to evaluate the effectiveness and methodological quality of dissonance-based health behaviour interventions and to explore identified sources of heterogeneity in intervention effects.

Methods Bibliographic databases were searched for relevant articles from inception to March 2012. Only studies targeting non-clinical health behaviour in non-clinical populations were included in the review. One author extracted data and assessed quality of evidence and a second author verified all content.

Results Reports of 20 studies were included. A variety of health behaviours and outcome measures were addressed across studies. Most studies produced one or more significant effects on measures of behaviour, attitude or intention. Across studies, methodological risk for bias was frequently high, particularly for selection bias. Gender and self-esteem were identified as potential moderator variables.

Conclusions The evidence for the effectiveness of dissonance-based interventions was generally positive. The hypocrisy paradigm was found to be the most commonly applied research paradigm and was most effective at inciting change across a range of health behaviours. There was no observable link between type of target behaviour and positive outcomes. Researchers are encouraged to minimize potential for bias in future studies and explore moderators of the dissonance effect.

Neutrosophic information fusion applied to the options market

In this paper we basically make two propositions - firstly a non-linear process that is primarily fuelled by mass cognitive dissonance could generate systematic deviations between the theoretical and market prices of long-term options, and secondly such deviations are best reconciled in terms of neutrosophic rather than ruled-based reasoning, especially in the context of the users of automated trading systems designed to generate trading signals based on analysis of information  from conflicting sources.

A model of student satisfaction : international postgraduate students from Asia

The internationalisation of higher education remains one of the major challenges faced by universities with the increasing mobility and rising expectations of a highly diversified student community worldwide. With the competitiveness of the industry, universities will need to focus on factors influencing student satisfaction to improve service quality where required. This paper draws on the theory of cognitive dissonance dealining with disconformation of expectations that results in customer satisfaction and using structural equation modelling, investigates factors that influence satisfaction of international postgraduate students from Asian countries studying in Australia and concludes with strategic implications for universities.

Computing in a social context : gender difference in participation

The thesis reviews the literature relating to girls and computing within a framework which is structured around three specific questions. First, are there differences between girls and boys in their participation in class computing activities and/or in non-class computing activities? Second, do these differences in participation in computing activities have broader implications which justify the growing concern about the under-representation of girls? Third, wahy are girls under-represented in these activities? Although the available literature is predominantly descriptive, the underlying implicit theoretical model is essentially a social learning model. Girl's differential participation is attributed to learned attitudes towards computing rathan to differences between girls and boys in general ability. These attitudes, which stress the masculine, mathematical, technological aspects of computing are developed through modelling, direct experience, intrinsic and extrinsic reinforcement and generalisation from pre-existing, attitudes to related curriculum areas. In the literature it is implicitly assumed that these attitudes underlie girl's decisions to self-select out of computing activities. In this thesis predictions from a social learning model are complemented by predictions derived from expectancy-value, cognitive dissonance and self-perception theories. These are tested in three separate studies. Study one provides data from a pretest-posttest study of 24 children in a year four class learning BASIC. It examines pre- and posttest differences between girls and boys in computing experience, knowledge and achievement as well as the factors relating to computing achievement. Study two uses a pretest-posttest control group design to study the gender differences in the impact of the introduction of Logo into years 1, 3, 5 and 7 in both a coeducational and single-sex setting using a sample of 222 children from three schools. Study three utilises a larger sample of 1176 students, drawn from three secondary schools and five primary schools, enabling an evaluation of gender differences in relation to a wide range of class computing experiences and in a broader range of school contexts. The overall results are consistent across the three studies, supporting the contention that social factors, rather than ability differences influence girls' participation and achievement in computing. The more global theoretical framework, drawing on social learning, expectancy-value, cognitive dissonance and self-perception theories, provides a more adequate explanation of gender differences in participation than does any one of these models.

Evaluation of a cognitive behavior therapy program for people with sexual dysfunction

This article reports on an evaluation of a cognitive behavioral program for the treatment of sexual dysfunction. Frequency data are provided on the sexual dysfunction of 95 males (mean age = 41.6 years) and 105 females (mean age = 36.4 years). The effectiveness of a cognitive behavioral program among 45 sexually dysfunctional males (mean age = 39.9 years) and 54 sexually dysfunctional females (mean age = 36.2 years) was assessed. The results demonstrated that, after therapy, respondents experienced lower levels of sexual dysfunction, more positive attitudes toward sex, perceptions that sex was more enjoyable, fewer affected aspects of sexual dysfunction in their relationship, and a lower likelihood of perceiving themselves as a sexual failure. The implications of these findings for the treatment of sexual dysfunction are discussed.

Michael Polanyi, tacit cognitive relativist

Celebrated as a theorist of science, and a source of stimulating ideas for theologians and philosophers of religion, Michael Polanyi explicitly denied cognitive relativism. Yet cognitive relativism, this paper suggests, is implied by Polanyi's account of conceptual frameworks and intellectual controversies.

In 'The Stability of Beliefs' (1952) Polanyi understands conceptual frameworks (science, psychoanalysis, Azande witchcraft, Marxism) as embedded in, and as expressed in the use of, their own languages. The language-with-theory limits the range of discussable subjects, interprets relevant facts in its own terms, permits only certain questions to be asked, with answers to these questions serving to confirm the framework.

In Polanyi's masterwork, Personal Knowledge (1958), these ideas inform his discussion of controversies over scientific frameworks and frameworks vying to become part of science. In each controversy, frameworks are logically disconnected, Polanyi foreshadowing the incommensurability thesis

I argue that Polanyi's ideas satisfy recognised criteria of cognitive relativism. Perception is undetermined by objects and conditioned by language. Empirical propositions, in Polanyi's view, are accepted as true only within a conceptual framework. Polanyi regards supporters of logically disconnected frameworks as thinking differently, living in different worlds, speaking different languages and as experiencing communication failure. There is no framework-independent argument or evidence to distinguish any framework as the best available approximation to the truth. Frameworks are logically disconnected and incommensurable.

The assessment of denial, cognitive distortions and victim empathy among pedophilic sex offenders. An evaluation of the utility of self-report measures.

The modification of denial, defensiveness, and cognitive distortions and the enhancement of victim empathy are central components in the treatment of pedophilic sex offenders (PSOs) and are thus important factors to evaluate. This review of the literature highlights three broad problems with self-report measures of these variables. First, the psychometric properties of measures vary enormously, with some having no established validity or reliability. Second, the purpose of the measure is generally quite transparent, enabling the respondent to easily pick the socially acceptable responses. Finally, it is difficult to determine which are the best measures to use in assessing PSOs. Measures range from those designed for the general public to those designed specifically for PSOs. Also, they range from those that assess broad processes (e.g., general empathy) to those that assess offensespecific variables (e.g., victim empathy). This article argues that these issues need to be addressed to improve both the assessment of these processes among PSOs and the evaluation of treatment programs for PSOs.

An evaluation of self-report measures of cognitive distortions and empathy among Australian sex offenders

The modification of deviant cognitions and the enhancement of victim empathy are central components in many treatment programs for sex offenders. There appear to be three broad problems with self-report measures of these factors: variations in the psychometric evaluation of measures; the transparency of items and thus the likely influence of social desirability; and the difficulty of determining which measures are specific to particular types of sex offenders. The aim of this study was to investigate these three issues among child molesters (CMs), and men convicted of sex offences against adults (ASOs). Data were collected from 36 CMs and 31 ASOs and from two comparison groups (33 men convicted of nonsexual offences and 40 nonoffenders from the community), to assess the reliability (internal and test-retest) and validity (discriminant, construct, and face) of measures, the influence of sexual social desirability on responding and the specificity of measures to both sex offender groups. Collectively, the results raise issues related to the assessment of sex offenders that require further investigation. They also have theoretical implications about the relationship between cognitive and emotive processes among sex offenders.

Habitual visualizer/verbalizer cognitive style: the impact of anxiety and depression

Imagery and verbal cognitive abilities appear to be differentially affected by psychopathology, yet research has failed to consider Paivio's proposition that people have habitual cognitive styles. The aim of this study was to establish habitual cognitive style (verbalizer/visualizer) among depressed, anxious, and control respondents and compare these to their imagery and verbal abilities in the state mode. A comparison of these groups confirmed that there were no differences in preferred habitual cognitive style. In the state mode, the anxious group demonstrated the highest imagery vividness and the depressed group the lowest. Both clinical groups demonstrated attenuated verbal reasoning and high levels of confusion. Within-groups comparison confirmed the attenuation of verbal ability for both clinical groups while the control group remained stable. All three groups demonstrated enhanced state imagery ability over habitual visual preference. This change was greatest for the anxious group followed by the control and then the depressed groups. The therapeutic implications of these findings are discussed .

Maintaining life satisfaction: the role of positive cognitive bias

Recent research into population standards of life satisfaction has revealed a remarkable level of uniformity, with the mean values for Western populations clustering at around three-quarters of the measurement scale maximum. While this seems to suggest the presence of a homeostatic mechanism for life satisfaction, the character of such a hypothetical device is uncertain. This paper proposes that well-being homeostasis is controlled by positive cognitive biases pertaining to the self. Most particular in this regard are the positive biases in relation to self-esteem, control and optimism. Past controversies in relation to this proposition are reviewed and resolved in favour of the proposed mechanism. The empirical data to support this hypothesis are discussed in the context of perceived well-being as an adaptive human attribute.

Cognitive functioning in chronic fatigue syndrome and the role of depression, anxiety and fatigue

Objective: This study was designed to investigate the role of depression, anxiety, and fatigue in Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (CFS) sufferers' objective and subjective cognitive performance. Methods: Twenty-three CFS sufferers and 23 healthy control participants were compared on objective and subjective assessments of cognitive performance. Depression, anxiety, and fatigue were also evaluated. Results: CFS sufferers did not demonstrate any impairment in objective cognitive functioning compared to the control group, and objective performance was not related to their higher levels of depression or their level of fatigue. Depression scores only accounted for a small amount of the variance in CFS sufferers' lower subjective assessment of their cognitive performance compared to control participants. There were no differences between the groups on anxiety scores. Conclusion: The results are discussed in terms of the heterogeneity of the CFS population and the complex interaction of symptomatological factors that characterise CFS.

Cognitive vulnerability and resilience to depressed mood

This study evaluated positive and negative attributional styles, sociotropy, autonomy and optimism as contributors to positive affect and negative affect. The two affect measures respectively separated depression from general psychological distress. Model fit for 168 adult women indicated that each attributional style contributed indirectly to depression via optimism. Further, negative attributional style directly contributed to psychological distress as did sociotropy and autonomy. Results also confirmed an interrelatedness between negative attributional style, sociotropy and autonomy. Discussion addresses interpretation of the model and implications for research.

The metabolic and cognitive energy costs of stabilising a high-energy interlimb coordination task

Kinematic (relative phase error), metabolic (oxygen consumption, heart rate) and attentional (baseline and cycling reaction times) variables were measured while participants practised a high energy-demanding, intrinsically unstable 90° relative phase coordination pattern on independent bicycle ergometers. The variables were found to be strongly inter-correlated, suggesting a link between emerging performance stability with practice and minimal metabolic and attentional cost. The effects of practice of 90° relative phase coordination on the performance of in-phase (0°-phase) and antiphase (180°-phase) coordination were investigated by measuring the relative phase attractor layouts and recording the metabolic and attentional cost of the three coordination patterns before and after practice. The attentional variables did not differ significantly between coordination patterns and did not change with practice. Before practice, the coordination performance was most accurate and stable for in-phase cycling, with antiphase next and 90°-phase the poorest. However, metabolic cost was lower for antiphase than either in-phase or 90°-phase cycling, and the pre-practice attractor layout deviated from that predicted on the basis of dynamic stability as an attractor state, revealing an attraction to antiphase cycling. After practice of 90°-phase cycling, in-phase cycling remained the most accurate and stable, with 90°-phase next and antiphase the poorest, but antiphase retained the lowest metabolic energy cost. The attractor layout had changed, with new attractors formed at the practised 90°-phase pattern and its symmetrical partner of 270°-phase. Considering both the pre- and post-practice results, attractors were formed at either a low metabolic energy cost but less stable (antiphase) pattern or at a more stable but higher metabolic energy cost (90°-phase) pattern, but in neither case at the most stable and accurate (in-phase) pattern. The results suggest that energetic factors affect coordination dynamics and that coordination modes lower in metabolic energy expenditure may compete with dynamically stable modes.

Aging effects on the metabolic and cognitive energy cost of interlimb coordination

Many everyday motor tasks have high metabolic energy demands, and some require extended practice to learn the required coordination between limbs. Eight older (73.1 6 4.4 years) and 8 younger (23.3 6 5.9) men practiced a  high-energy two-hand coordination task with both 1808 and 908 target  relative phase. The older group showed greater performance error in both conditions, and performance at 908 was strongly attracted to antiphase coordination (1808). In a retention test one week following the acquisition trials, the older group had learned the 1808 condition but did not learn the 908 condition. Metabolic energy cost was not different between groups, but the older men showed higher heart rate and both conditions imposed  greater cognitive demands as revealed in auditory probe reaction time. Older adults’ motor learning may be inhibited by elevated heart rate at the same  oxygen cost, increased cognitive cost, and an attraction toward more  established low-energy in-phase or antiphase coordination.