Health promotion and climate change : exploring the core competencies required for action

Climate change poses serious threats to human health and well-being. It exacerbates existing health inequities, impacts on the social determinants of health and disproportionately affects vulnerable populations. In the Australian region these include remote Aboriginal communities, Pacific Island countries and people with low incomes. Given health promotion’s remit to protect and promote health, it should be well placed to respond to emerging climate-related health challenges. Yet, to date, there has been little evidence to demonstrate this. This paper draws on the findings of a qualitative study conducted in Victoria, Australia to highlight that; while there is clearly a role for health promotion in climate change mitigation and adaptation at the national and international levels, there is also a need for the engagement of health promoters at the community level. This raises several key issues for health promotion practice. To be better prepared to respond to climate change, health promotion practitioners first need to re-engage with the central tenets of the Ottawa Charter, namely the interconnectedness of humans and the natural environment and, secondly, the need to adopt ideas and frameworks from the sustainability field. The findings also open up a discussion for paradigmatic shifts in health promotion thinking and acting in the context of climate change.

Climate change sensitivity of comfort and energy performance criteria for offices

The climate change scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predict a significant increase in temperatures over the next decades. Architecture and building occupants have to respond to this change, but little information is currently available in how far the predicted changes are likely to affect comfort and energy performance in buildings. This study therefore investigates the climate change sensitivity of the following parameters: adaptive thermal comfort according to Ashrae Standard 55 and EN 15251, energy consumption, heating and cooling loads, and length of heating and cooling periods. The study is based on parametric simulations of typical office room configurations in the context of Athens, Greece. They refer to different building design priorities and account for different occupant behaviour by using an ideal and worst case scenario. To evaluate the impact of the climate change, simulations are compared based on a common standard weather data set for Athens, and a generated climate change data set for the IPCC A2 scenario. The results show a significant impact of the climate change on all investigated parameters. They also indicate that in this context the optimisation of comfort and energy performance is likely to be related to finding the best possible balance between building (design) and occupant behaviour and other contextual influences, rather than a straightforward optimisation of separated single parameters.

Temporal and spatial variability of breeding in Australian birds and the potential implications of climate change

Climate change has profound implications for biodiversity worldwide. To understand its effects on Australia's avifauna, we need to evaluate the effects of annual climatic variability and geographical climate gradients. Here, we use national datasets to examine variation in breeding of 16 species of common and widespread Australian landbirds, in relation to four variables: altitude, latitude, year and the Southern Oscillation Index. Analysis of 30 years of nesting records confirmed that breeding was generally later in colder altitudes and latitudes (geographic variation), but was not consistently related to year or the Southern Oscillation Index (temporal variation). However, power to detect expected temporal effects was low. The timing of breeding became significantly earlier with year only in south-eastern Australia. In contrast, an index of breeding activity (the proportion of atlas records for a species for which breeding was reported) increased with increasing winter values of the Southern Oscillation Index (generally wetter conditions) for all 16 species across Australia. This suggests that annual fluctuations in rainfall can have dramatic and immediate effects on breeding, even for largely sedentary, seasonally breeding species. If, as expected, climate change creates drier conditions over much of Australia, we predict a marked negative effect on bird breeding.

Seabird and marine mammal management options in the face of climate change

Climate change is already impacting Australia’s oceans. Responses by marine life to both climate variability and change have been documented for low trophic levels, however, responses for Australia’s iconic higher trophic level marine taxa are poorly understood, including for many conservation-dependent seabirds and marine mammals. We report initial results from a national study evaluating impacts an adaptation options. Individual time series and combined analyses show consistent responses to historical climate signals, however, improved monitoring protocols are needed to maximize detection of any climate-related demographic signals. Despite difference in sampling , the development of regional multi-species-indices of environmental change provides robust climate indicators over large regions.

Detecting range shifts among Australian fishes in response to climate change

One of the most obvious and expected impacts of climate change is a shift in the distributional range of organisms, which could have considerable ecological and economic consequences. Australian waters are hotspots for climate-induced environmental changes; here, we review these potential changes and their apparent and potential implications for freshwater, estuarine and marine fish. Our meta-analysis detected 300 papers globally on 'fish' and 'range shifts', with ∼7% being from Australia. Of the Australian papers, only one study exhibited definitive evidence of climate-induced range shifts, with most studies focussing instead on future predictions. There was little consensus in the literature regarding the definition of 'range', largely because of populations having distributions that fluctuate regularly. For example, many marine populations have broad dispersal of offspring (causing vagrancy). Similarly, in freshwater and estuarine systems, regular environmental changes (e.g. seasonal, ENSO cycles not related to climate change) cause expansion and contraction of populations, which confounds efforts to detect range 'shifts'. We found that increases in water temperature, reduced freshwater flows and changes in ocean currents are likely to be the key drivers of climate-induced range shifts in Australian fishes. Although large-scale frequent and rigorous direct surveys of fishes across their entire distributional ranges, especially at range edges, will be essential to detect range shifts of fishes in response to climate change, we suggest careful co-opting of fisheries, museum and other regional databases as a potential, but imperfect alternative. © 2011 CSIRO Open Access.

Mapping 100 years of Thornthwaite moisture index: Impact of climate change in Victoria, Australia

Geographer C. W. Thornthwaite proposed in 1948 a moisture index called Thornthwaite Moisture Index (TMI) as part of a water balance model for a new classification system for climate. The importance of TMI climatic classification has been recognised in many areas of knowledge and practice worldwide over the last 60 years. However, although past climate research was focused on developing adequate methods for climate classification, current research is more concerned with understanding the patterns of climate change. The use of TMI as an indicator for climate change is still an incipient area of research. The contributions of this paper are twofold. First, it is to fully document a methodology based on geostatistics adopted to produce a time series of TMI maps that are accurate and have high spatial resolution. The state of Victoria, in Australia, over the last century, is used as the case study. Second, by analysing these maps, the paper presents a general evaluation of the spatial patterns found in Victoria related to moisture variability across space and over time. Some potential implications of the verified moisture changes are discussed, and a number of ideas for further development are suggested. © 2014 Institute of Australian Geographers.

Mapping potential risk for housing damage from ground movement due to climate change

The performance of footings in residential construction is influenced by the degree of ground movement, particularly in reactive soils, which is driven by the magnitude of change in soil moisture. New patterns of climate are affecting residential foundations and causing serious and expensive damage. This paper produces a map of potential risk for housing damage from ground movement due to climate change. Using a geographic information system, it combines information on (1) soil moisture change related to climate, using TMI as the indicator, and (2) population growth. Preliminary results, having Victoria, Australia, in the last decade as the case study, suggest that effects of climate change on soil, and resulting impacts on house foundations, are not being taken into consideration in current planning strategies for urban development. Most of the urban growth priority zones in the study area are susceptible to medium and high risk for damage. Producing new and renovated buildings that are durable in the long term is essential for the economy, environment and social welfare. The map presented here can assist policies and strategies towards urban resilience in the context of climate change.