Cardiovascular risk prediction model development and assessment

The aim of this article is to review the development and assessment of cardiovascular risk prediction models and to discuss the predictive value of a risk factor as well as to introduce new assessment methods to evaluate a risk prediction model. Many cardiovascular risk prediction models have been developed during the past three decades. However, there has not been consistent agreement regarding how to appropriately assess a risk prediction model, especially when new markers are added to an existing model. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve has traditionally been used to assess the discriminatory ability of a risk prediction model. However, recent studies suggest that this method has its limitations and cannot be the sole approach to evaluate the usefulness of a new marker. New assessment methods are being developed to appropriately assess a risk prediction model and they will be gradually used in clinical and epidemiological studies.

The natriuretic peptide system of the heart and central blood vessels of the toad, Bufo marinus

This research has established the presence of a natriuretic peptide system in the cardiovascular system of the toad, Bufo marinus. The presence of atrial natriuretic peptide mRNA and the peptide itself were shown in the heart which does not contain natriuretic peptide receptors in contrast to the large arteries and veins. In arteries these receptors mediated vasodilation. Atrial natriuretic peptide released from the heart may act on large arteries to regulate blood flow, but the action does not target the heart.

Age-specific trends in cardiovascular mortality rates in Australia between 1980 and 2005

Aim: Recent analyses suggest the decline in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates is slowing in younger age groups in countries such as the UK and US. We aimed to assess recent mortality rate trends in all circulatory disease and its subtypes in Australia.

Methods: Annual all circulatory, CHD, and cerebrovascular disease mortality rates between 1980 and 2005 for Australia were analysed. Data were stratified by sex and ten-year age group (age 35 to 85+). The annual rate of change and significant changes in trends were identified using joinpoint Poisson regression.

Results: Age standardised all circulatory disease mortality rates continue to decline in Australia, falling from 441 per 100,000 in 1980 to 145 per 100,000 in 2005 for males and from 264 per 100,000 to 96 per 100,000 for females. The rate of decline from both CHD and cerebrovascular disease appears to be stable or accelerating for individuals aged 55 years and over. However, the decline in young men and women aged 35-54 years is slowing for CHD and cerebrovascular disease mortality alike (except cerebrovascular disease mortality in males aged 35-44). For females aged 35-44 and 45-54 there has been no change in the cerebrovascular mortality rate since 1993 and 1999, respectively.

Conclusions: In Australia, whilst in older adults the decline in cardiovascular mortality rates is generally accelerating, in younger adults it appears to be slowing. It will be important to identify the causes of these trends.

Cost-effectiveness of interventions to prevent cardiovascular disease in Australia's indigenous population

Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of disease burden in Australia's Indigenous population, and the greatest contributor to the Indigenous 'health gap'. Economic evidence can help identify interventions that efficiently address this discrepancy.

Platelet supersensitivity to thrombin stimulation in depression: a possible mechanism for the association with cardiovascular mortality.

The mortality risk associated with cardiovascular disease is significantly increased in patients with major depression and panic disorder. The mechanism of this phenomenon is unclear. Thrombin is responsible for platelet aggregation and shape change, and it plays a significant role in the development of thromboembolic events. In this study, we examined the platelet second messenger intracellular calcium response to thrombin stimulation in patients with major depression (n = 13), major depression after response to electroconvulsive therapy (ECT; n = 13), subsyndromal depression (n = 16), schizophrenia (n = 15), and control subjects (n = 65). Patients with major depression had significantly higher intracellular calcium responses to thrombin stimulation than control subjects, patients with subsyndromal depression, and patients with schizophrenia (p < 0.05). Electroconvulsive therapy did not significantly change this supersensitivity. This suggests that the platelet response to activation in patients with major depression is supersensitive. This study suggests a possible mechanism for the increased risk of cardiovascular disease that is seen in these two psychiatric disorders. The lack of difference between the control and subsyndromal depression groups appears to validate current diagnostic thresholds in depression. The failure of nonpharmacologic treatment to alter this marker suggests that it may be a trait marker of depression.

Cardiovascular risk screening of volunteer firefighters

Background: The work demands involved in firefighting place significant stress on the cardiovascular system. This study investigated the application of the AHA/ACSM Health/Fitness Facility Preparticipation Screening Questionnaire in volunteer Country Fire Brigade (CFA) firefighters. Methods: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors were measured in 3777 CFA firefighters and entered into a modified version of the American Heart Association (AHA)/ACSM Health/Fitness Facility Preparticipation Screening Questionnaire to stratify individuals as low, moderate or high risk. Results: Just over half (50.8%) of female and more than two thirds (68.2%) of male CFA firefighters were classified as moderate risk. The questionnaire further stratified 2.6% of female and 5.2% of male CFA firefighters as high risk while the remaining 46.6% and 26.6% of female and male firefighters, respectively, were classified as low risk. Conclusion: The majority of firefighters screened were at moderate risk and therefore, would be advised by AHA/ACSM guidelines to undertake and pass a detailed medical examination and a medically supervised exercise test prior to initiating vigorous intensity physical activity. However, considering the financial and practical implications (e.g., reduced emergency response capacity) the introduction of mandatory screening may cause, fire agencies should focus screening for high risk personnel only, while promoting agency wide CVD health education.

Cardiovascular disease in Europe 2015 : epidemiological update

This article provides an update for 2015 on the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD), with a particular focus on coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke, across the countries of Europe. Cardiovascular disease is still the most common cause of death within Europe, causing almost two times as many deaths as cancer across the continent. Although there is clear evidence, where data are available, that mortality from CHD and stroke has decreased substantially over the last 5–10 years, there are still large inequalities found between European countries, in both current rates of death and the rate at which these decreases have occurred. Similarly, rates of treatment, particularly surgical intervention, differ widely between those countries for which data are available, indicating a range of inequalities between them. This is also the first time in the series that we use the 2013 European Standard Population (ESP) to calculate age-standardized death rates (ASDRs). This new standard results in ASDRs around two times as large as the 1976 ESP for CVD conditions such as CHD but changes little the relative rankings of countries according to ASDR.

Estimating the effect of long-term physical activity on cardiovascular disease and mortality: evidence from the Framingham Heart Study

OBJECTIVE: In the majority of studies, the effect of physical activity (PA) on cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality is estimated at a single time point. The impact of long-term PA is likely to differ. Our study objective was to estimate the effect of long-term adult-life PA compared with long-term inactivity on the risk of incident CVD, all-cause mortality and CVD-attributable mortality. DESIGN: Observational cohort study. SETTING: Framingham, MA, USA. PATIENTS: 4729 Framingham Heart Study participants who were alive and CVD-free in 1956. EXPOSURES: PA was measured at three visits over 30 years along with a variety of risk factors for CVD. Cumulative PA was defined as long-term active versus long-term inactive. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incident CVD, all-cause mortality and CVD-attributable mortality. RESULTS: During 40 years of follow-up there were 2594 cases of incident CVD, 1313 CVD-attributable deaths and 3521 deaths. Compared with long-term physical inactivity, the rate ratio of long-term PA was 0.95 (95% CI 0.84 to 1.07) for CVD, 0.81 (0.71 to 0.93) for all-cause mortality and 0.83 (0.72 to 0.97) for CVD-attributable mortality. Assessment of effect modification by sex suggests greater protective effect of long-term PA on CVD incidence (p value for interaction=0.004) in men (0.79 (0.66 to 0.93)) than in women (1.15 (0.97 to 1.37)). CONCLUSIONS: Cumulative long-term PA has a protective effect on incidence of all-cause and CVD-attributable mortality compared with long-term physical inactivity. In men, but not women, long-term PA also appears to have a protective effect on incidence of CVD.

Television viewing time and 13-year mortality in adults with cardiovascular disease: data from the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle Study (AusDiab)

BACKGROUND: In the general population, excessive sedentary behaviour is associated with increased all-cause mortality. Few studies have examined this relationship in people with cardiovascular disease (CVD). Using a sample of people with CVD who were excluded from an analysis of the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle (AusDiab) study, we examined the relationship between sedentary behaviour and 13-year all-cause mortality.

METHODS: In the original AusDiab study, television viewing time was used as a marker of sedentary behaviour in 609 adults (≥45 years of age) with CVD. During 6,291 person-years of follow-up (median follow-up 13 years), there were 294 deaths (48% of sample). Using the time scale of attained age, the Cox proportional hazards model predicting all-cause mortality adjusted for sex, self-rated general health, leisure-time physical activity, smoking status, education, household income, body mass index, lipid levels, blood pressure, and diabetes mellitus was used.

RESULTS: Compared with a TV viewing time of <2hours per day, the fully adjusted hazard ratios for all-cause mortality were 1.18 (95% CI, 0.88 to 1.57) for ≥2 to <4hours per day and 1.52 (95% CI, 1.09 to 2.13) for >4hours per day.

CONCLUSIONS: Sedentary behaviour was associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality in people with CVD, independent of physical activity and other confounders. In addition to the promotion of regular physical activity, cardiac rehabilitation efforts which also focus on reducing sedentary behaviour may be beneficial.

Comparative aspects of natriuretic peptide physiology in non-mammalian vertebrates: a review

The natriuretic peptide system is a complex family of peptides and receptors that is primarily linked to the maintenance of osmotic and cardiovascular homeostasis. A natriuretic peptide system is present in each vertebrate class but there are varying degrees of complexity in the system. In agnathans and chondrichthyians, only one natriuretic peptide has been identified, while new data has revealed that multiple types of natriuretic peptides are present in bony fish. However, it seems in tetrapods that there has been a reduction in the number of natriuretic peptide genes, such that only three natriuretic peptides are present in mammals. The peptides act via a family of guanylyl cyclase receptors to generate the second messenger cGMP, which  mediates a range of physiological effects at key targets such as the gills, kidney and the cardiovascular system. This review summarises the current knowledge of the natriuretic peptide system in non-mammalian vertebrates and discusses the physiological actions of the peptides.

What is the role of a-linolenic acid for mammals?

This review examines the data pertaining to an important and often underrated EFA, α-linolenic acid (ALA). It examines its sources, metabolism, and biological effects in various population studies, in vitro, animal, and human intervention studies. The main role of ALA was assumed to be as a precursor to the longer-chain n-3 PUFA, EPA and DHA, and particularly for supplying DHA for neural tissue. This paper reveals that the major metabolic route of ALA metabolism is β-oxidation. Furthermore, ALA accumulates in specific sites in the body of mammals (carcass, adipose, and skin), and only a small proportion of the fed ALA is converted to DHA. There is some evidence that ALA may be involved with skin and fur function. There is continuing debate regarding whether ALA has actions of its own in relation to the cardiovascular system and neural function. Cardiovascular disease and cancer are two of the major burdens of disease in the 21st century, and emerging evidence suggests that diets containing ALA are associated with reductions in total deaths and sudden cardiac death. There may be aspects of the action and, more importantly, the metabolism of ALA that need to be elucidated, and these will help us understand the biological effects of this compound better. Additionally, we must not forget that ALA is part of the whole diet and should be seen in this context, not in isolation.

Phytoestrogens : end of a tale?

Phytoestrogens are plant‐derived hormone‐like diphenolic compounds of dietary origin that are present at high levels in plasma of subjects living in areas with low atherosclerosis and cancer incidence. The term phytoestrogen is commonly applied to the soy isoflavones genistein, daidzein and glycitein. As outlined in a previous review article in this journal by Adlercreutz and Mazur 1, these compounds are weakly estrogenic and appear to influence the cardiovascular system, the production, metabolism and biological activity of sex‐hormones, as well as malignant cell proliferation, differentiation and angiogenesis. Recently skepticism has developed concerning the true potential of phytoestrogens to beneficially modify these processes. A critical analysis of the early findings from supplementing the diet with soy protein has failed to confirm phytoestrogens as the responsible agent for beneficial cardiovascular effects, be it by way of lipid reduction, vasodilation or lipoprotein oxidation. Furthermore, contrasting data have been reported on the potential of phytoestrogens to prevent hormone‐dependent cancers (e.g. breast and prostate) and to successfully treat post‐menopausal complaints, an indication for which they are widely used. These potentially negative findings have led health authorities in several countries to suggest maximum daily intake levels for phytoestrogens. There is now growing interest in the use of soy products containing low levels of phytoestrogens and in research on other phytoestrogen free legumes such as lupin.