Empirical applications of economic principles in producer price index analysis

The research analyses economic linkages of producer price indices of the construction industry in Australia and relationships between construction and house prices. A range of econometric techniques are applied to analyse construction and house prices. The economic equilibrium and dynamic relationships among regional markets are investigated based on producer price index analysis.

Longitudinal study of Consumer Price Index (CPI) trends in core and non-core foods in Australia

Objective: This study examined trends in the price of healthy and less-healthy foods from 1989 to 2007 using the Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Methods: CPI food expenditure classes were classified as 'core' or 'non-core'. Trends in the CPI were analysed to examine the rise in prices of core compared with non-core foods.

Results: On average, the CPI for core foods has risen at a slightly higher, though not statistically significant, rate than non-core foods. Furthermore, selected groupings reveal interesting patterns. 'Bread' has risen in price significantly more than 'cakes and biscuits', and 'milk' has risen in price significantly more than 'soft drinks, waters and juices'.

Conclusions and implications: This investigation of food price trends reveals notable differences between core and non-core foods. This should be investigated further to determine the extent to which this contributes to the higher prevalence of diet-related diseases in low socio-economic groups.

Can consumer price index predict gold price returns?

In this paper using data for 54 countries we test whether consumer price index (CPI) predicts gold price returns. Our test for predictability is based on a recently developed flexible generalised least squares estimator, which most importantly accommodates the endogeneity of CPI, its persistency and any heteroskedasticity in the model. We find limited evidence that CPI predicts gold price returns in in-sample tests; however, out-of-sample tests reveal relatively strong evidence that CPI predicts gold returns. These results are robust to different forecasting horizons. On the whole, we discover reasonable evidence that consumer prices predict gold price returns.

Granger causality among house price and macroeconomic variables in Victoria

This study analyses the dynamic causality of four macroeconomic variables on house prices. The four macroeconomic variables have interrelationships with house prices in certain lagged terms, but these relationships are not always the same as the notions put forward in prior research. The relationships are detected to be unstable in the three observation periods. The instability of these relationships would cause difficulty in predicting house prices in the market, especially for policy makers and market participants.

Introduction of electronic trading in index futures : volatility and volume effects

There is continuing debate in the US over full introduction of electronic trading in those index futures contracts that are still traded at the CME via open outcry. Since the late 1990s major international exchanges trading index futures contracts have converted to full electronic trading. Recent empirical studies have focused on effects on bid/ask spreads and related price volatility following these changes. We take a different approach and investigate and test for structural change in conditional volatility and volume effects following the shift to electronic trading in the Australian Share Price Index futures contract. Multiple Switching point GARCH models are employed with the data sampled at 5, 15 and 30-minute intervals from transaction records supplied by the Sydney Futures Exchange. There is significant evidence of structural changes in both the persistence of volatility shocks and simultaneous volume effects following the change to screen trading in this futures market.

Contemporaneous intra-day volume, option, and futures volatility transmissions across parallel markets

The primary objective of this article is to investigate volatility transmission across three parallel markets operating on the Sydney Futures Exchange (SFE), both within and out of sample. Half-hourly observations are sampled from transaction data for the share price index (SPI) futures, SPI futures options, and 90-day bank accepted bill (BAB) futures markets, and the analysis is carried out using the simultaneous volatility (SVL) system of equations as well as competing volatility models. The results confirm the poor ability of GARCH models to fit intraday data. This study also applies an artificial nesting procedure to evaluate the out-of-sample volatility forecasts. Implied volatility has very limited (if any) predictive power when evaluated in isolation, whereas the SVL model with implied volatility embedded provides incremental information relative to competing model forecasts.

"Information effect" of economic news: SPI futures

The present study investigates the behaviour of Share Price Index (SPI) futures returns, volatility, and trading volume behaviour around the announcement of Current Account Deficit (CAD), Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Inflation (CPI). The futures market data are sampled at 1-, 5-, and 10-min intervals at the announcement time. After controlling for risk, a significant positive abnormal return can be earned based on the good news release. However, it is unlikely that traders could make an economic profit by exploiting this effect. In this sense, this futures market returns are found to react efficiently to good news. Volatility behaviour around announcements provides the same conclusion. As for the relationship between returns, volatility, and volume upon information arrival, returns are positively related to trading volume, which is inconsistent with the ‘short sales constraint’ theory. Trading volume is found to increase as the level of volatility rises. The redenomination of the SPI futures and options contract from A$100 to A$25 per basis point is found to increase trading volume in excess of that expected due to the redenomination. However, market return and volatility are unaffected by the redenomination.

Modelling linkages between Australian financial futures markets

This paper investigates the dynamic interdependence of the Australian financial futures markets. A multivariate EGARCH model is developed to investigate linkages and stochastic volatility interactions between the 10-year Treasury bond, 90-day bank-accepted bill, and the All Ordinaries share price index futures markets. In this analysis, the empirical results strongly suggest that significant volatility interactions are evident across the 3 markets.

Mean reversion versus random walk in G7 stock prices evidence from multiple trend break unit root tests

This paper provides evidence on the random walk hypothesis in G7 stock price indices using unit root tests which allow for one and two structural breaks in the trend. Of the seven countries we find, at best, evidence of mean reversion in the stock price index of Japan. Thus, overall, our results support the random walk hypothesis. We also consider the implications of the identified structural breaks for movement in stock prices over time. Our main conclusion from this exercise is that the second break in stock prices has had a detrimental effect on movements in stock prices in the G7 countries.

Understanding asymmetries in macroeconomic aggregates : the case of Singapore

For robust policymaking and econometric modelling, it is essential to know whether macroeconomic aggregates contain asymmetric behaviour. The aim of this note is to investigate asymmetries in Singapore's macroeconomic aggregates using the Randles et al. (1980) Triples test. We examine both deepness and steepness asymmetries, and find that for Consumer Price Index (CPI) and unemployment rate there is evidence for deepness asymmetry. On the basis of this finding, we caution policymakers.

It's the economy : the effect of macroeconomic variables of the rate of suicide

Background. There are a large number of factors mediating suicide. Many studies have searched for a direct causal relationship between economic hardship and suicide, however, findings have been varied.

Method. Suicide data was obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics for the period between January 1968 and August 2002. These were correlated with a suite of macroeconomic data including housing loan interest rates, unemployment rates, days lost to industrial disputes, Consumer Price Index, gross domestic product, and the Consumer Sentiment Index.

Results. A total of 51 845 males and 16 327 females committed suicide between these dates. There were significant associations between suicide rates and eleven macroeconomic indicators for both genders in at least one age range. Data was divided into male and female and five age ranges and pooled ages. Analyses were conducted on these 132 datasets resulting in 80 significant findings. The data was generally stronger for indices measuring economic performance than indices measuring consumers’ perceptions of the state of the economy. A striking difference between male and female trends was seen. Generally, male suicide rates increased with markers of economic adversity, while the opposite pattern was seen in females. There were significantly different patterns in age-stratified data, with for example higher housing loan interest rates having a positive association with suicide in younger people and a negative association in older age groups.

Conclusion. Macroeconomic trends are significantly associated with suicide. The patterns in males and females are very different, and there are further substantial age-related differences.

Low-frequency volatility of yen interest rate swap market in relation to macroeconomic risk

Using ‘low-frequency’ volatility extracted from aggregate volatility shocks in interest rate swap (hereafter, IRS) market, this paper investigates whether Japanese yen IRS volatility can be explained by macroeconomic risks. The analysis suggests that this low-frequency yen IRS volatility has strong and positive association with most of the macroeconomic risk proxies (e.g., volatility of consumer price index, industrial production volatility, foreign exchange volatility, slope of the term structure and money supply) with the exception of the unemployment rate, which is negatively related to IRS volatility. This finding is fairly consistent with the argument that the greater the macroeconomic risk the greater is the use of derivative instruments to hedge or speculate. The relationship between the macroeconomic risks and IRS volatility varies slightly across the different swap maturities but is robust to alternative volatility specifications. This linkage between swap market and macroeconomy has practical implications since market makers and hedgers use the swap rate as benchmark for pricing long-term interest rates, corporate bonds and various other securities.

Faster and parameter-free discord search in quasi-periodic time series

Time series discord has proven to be a useful concept for time-series anomaly identification. To search for discords, various algorithms have been developed. Most of these algorithms rely on pre-building an index (such as a trie) for subsequences. Users of these algorithms are typically required to choose optimal values for word-length and/or alphabet-size parameters of the index, which are not intuitive. In this paper, we propose an algorithm to directly search for the top-K discords, without the requirement of building an index or tuning external parameters. The algorithm exploits quasi-periodicity present in many time series. For quasi-periodic time series, the algorithm gains significant speedup by reducing the number of calls to the distance function.