Bayesian hierarchical modeling of the temporal dynamics of subjective well-being: A 10 year longitudinal analysis

This study demonstrates, for the first time, how Bayesian hierarchical modeling can be applied to yield novel insights into the long-term temporal dynamics of subjective well-being (SWB). Several models were proposed and examined using Bayesian methods. The models were assessed using a sample of Australian adults (. n=. 1081) who provided annual SWB scores on between 5 and 10 occasions. The best fitting models involved a probit transformation, allowed error variance to vary across participants, and did not include a lag parameter. Including a random linear and quadratic effect resulted in only a small improvement over the intercept only model. Examination of individual-level fits suggested that most participants were stable with a small subset exhibiting patterns of systematic change.

Does mortality vary between Asian subgroups in New Zealand: an application of hierarchical Bayesian modelling

The aim of this paper was to see whether all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates vary between Asian ethnic subgroups, and whether overseas born Asian subgroup mortality rate ratios varied by nativity and duration of residence. We used hierarchical Bayesian methods to allow for sparse data in the analysis of linked census-mortality data for 25-75 year old New Zealanders. We found directly standardised posterior all-cause and cardiovascular mortality rates were highest for the Indian ethnic group, significantly so when compared with those of Chinese ethnicity. In contrast, cancer mortality rates were lowest for ethnic Indians. Asian overseas born subgroups have about 70% of the mortality rate of their New Zealand born Asian counterparts, a result that showed little variation by Asian subgroup or cause of death. Within the overseas born population, all-cause mortality rates for migrants living 0-9 years in New Zealand were about 60% of the mortality rate of those living more than 25 years in New Zealand regardless of ethnicity. The corresponding figure for cardiovascular mortality rates was 50%. However, while Chinese cancer mortality rates increased with duration of residence, Indian and Other Asian cancer mortality rates did not. Future research on the mechanisms of worsening of health with increased time spent in the host country is required to improve the understanding of the process, and would assist the policy-makers and health planners.

Input usage, output mix and industry deregulation: an analysis of the Australian dairy manufacturing industry

In this paper we estimate a Translog output distance function for a balanced panel of state level data for the Australian dairy processing sector. We estimate a fixed effects specification employing Bayesian methods, with and without the imposition of monotonicity and curvature restrictions. Our results indicate that Tasmania and Victoria are the most technically efficient states with New South Wales being the least efficient. The imposition of theoretical restrictions marginally affects the results especially with respect to estimates of technical change and industry deregulation. Importantly, our bias estimates show changes in both input use and output mix that result from deregulation. Specifically, we find that deregulation has positively biased the production of butter, cheese and powders.

Phylogenetic relationships among nine scallop species (Bivalvia : Pectinidae) inferred from nucleotide sequences of one mitochondrial and three nuclear gene regions

Current knowledge of the evolutionary relationships among scallop species (Mollusca: Bivalvia: Pectinidae) in the Indo-Pacific region is rather scanty. To enhance the understanding of the relationships within this group, phylogenies of nine species of scallops with the majority from coastal regions of Thailand, were reconstructed by maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian methods using sequences of the 16S rRNA of the mitochondrial genome, and a fragment containing the ITS1, 5.8S and ITS2 genes of the nuclear DNA. The trees that resulted from the three methods of analysis were topologically identical, however, gained different levels of support at some nodes. Nine species were clustered into two major clades, corresponding to two subfamilies (Pectininae and Chlamydinae) of the three currently recognized subfamilies within Pectinidae. Overall, the relationships reported herein are mostly in accordance with the previous molecular studies that used sequences of the mtDNA cytochrome oxidase subunit I, and the classification system based on microsculpture of shell features and morphological characteristics of juveniles. Levels of divergences were different among genes (i.e., the 5.8S gene showed the lowest levels of nucleotide divergence at all levels, whereas the 16S rRNA showed the highest level of variation within species, and ITS2 gene revealed the highest level of divergence at higher levels).

A probabilistic framework for tracking in wide-area environments

Surveillance in wide-area spatial environments is characterised by complex spatial layouts, large state space, and the use of multiple cameras/sensors. To solve this problem, there is a need for representing the dynamic and noisy data in the tracking tasks, and dealing with them at different levels of detail. This requirement is particularly suited to the Layered Dynamic Probabilistic Network (LDPN), a special type of Dynamic Probabilistic Network (DPN). In this paper, we propose the use of LDPN as the integrated framework for tracking in wide-area environments. We illustrate, with the help of a synthetic tracking scenario, how the parameters of the LDPN can be estimated from training data, and then used to draw predictions and answer queries about unseen tracks at various levels of detail.

Combining image regions and human activity for indirect object recognition in indoor wide-angle views

Traditional methods of object recognition are reliant on shape and so are very difficult to apply in cluttered, wideangle and low-detail views such as surveillance scenes. To address this, a method of indirect object recognition is proposed, where human activity is used to infer both the location and identity of objects. No shape analysis is necessary. The concept is dubbed 'interaction signatures', since the premise is that a human will interact with objects in ways characteristic of the function of that object - for example, a person sits in a chair and drinks from a cup. The human-centred approach means that recognition is possible in low-detail views and is largely invariant to the shape of objects within the same functional class. This paper implements a Bayesian network for classifying region patches with object labels, building upon our previous work in automatically segmenting and recognising a human's interactions with the objects. Experiments show that interaction signatures can successfully find and label objects in low-detail views and are equally effective at recognising test objects that differ markedly in appearance from the training objects.

Indexing narrative structure and semantics in motion pictures with a probabilistic framework

This work constitutes the first attempt to extract an important narrative structure, the 3-Act story telling paradigm, in film. This narrative structure is prevalent in the domain of film as it forms the foundation and framework in which the film can be made to function as an effective tool for story telling, and its extraction is a vital step in automatic content management for film data. A novel act boundary likelihood function for Act 1 is derived using a Bayesian formulation under guidance from film grammar, tested under many configurations and the results are reported for experiments involving 25 full length movies. The formulation is shown to be a useful tool in both the automatic and semi-interactive setting for semantic analysis of film.

A marginalised Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach for model based analysis of EEG data

The work presented in this paper focuses on fitting of a neural mass model to EEG data. Neurophysiology inspired mathematical models were developed for simulating brain's electrical activity imaged through Electroencephalography (EEG) more than three decades ago. At the present well informative models which even describe the functional integration of cortical regions also exists. However, a very limited amount of work is reported in literature on the subject of model fitting to actual EEG data. Here, we present a Bayesian approach for parameter estimation of the EEG model via a marginalized Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach.

Identification of nonlinear fMRI models using Auxiliary Particle Filter and kernel smoothing method

Hemodynamic models have a high potential in application to understanding the functional differences of the brain. However, full system identification with respect to model fitting to actual functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data is practically difficult and is still an active area of research. We present a simulation based Bayesian approach for nonlinear model based analysis of the fMRI data. The idea is to do a joint state and parameter estimation within a general filtering framework. One advantage of using Bayesian methods is that they provide a complete description of the posterior distribution, not just a single point estimate. We use an Auxiliary Particle Filter adjoined with a kernel smoothing approach to address this joint estimation problem.

North or south? Phylogenetic and biogeographic origins of a globally distributed avian clade

Establishing phylogenetic relationships within a clade can help to infer ancestral origins and indicate how widespread species reached their current biogeographic distributions. The small plovers, genus Charadrius, are cosmopolitan shorebirds, distributed across all continents except Antarctica. Here we present a global, species-level molecular phylogeny of this group based on four nuclear (. ADH5, FIB7, MYO2 and RAG1) and two mitochondrial (. COI and ND3) genes, and use the phylogeny to examine the biogeographic origin of the genus. A Bayesian multispecies coalescent approach identified two major clades (. CRD I and CRD II) within the genus. Clade CRD I contains three species (. Thinornis novaeseelandiae, Thinornis rubricollis and Eudromias morinellus), and CRD II one species (. Anarhynchus frontalis), that were previously placed outside the Charadrius genus. In contrast to earlier work, ancestral area analyses using parsimony and Bayesian methods supported an origin of the Charadrius plovers in the Northern hemisphere. We propose that major radiations in this group were associated with shifts in the range of these ancestral plover species, leading to colonisation of the Southern hemisphere.

Comparison of MLP and Bayesian approaches on mineral prospectivity mapping tasks

Mineral Prospectivity Mapping is the process of combining maps containing different geoscientific data sets to produce a single map depicting areas ranked according to their potential to host mineral deposits of a particular type. This paper outlines two approaches for deriving a function which can be used to assign to each cell in the study area a value representing the posterior probability that the cell contains a deposit of the sought-after mineral. One approach is based on estimating probability density functions (pdfs); the second uses multilayer perceptrons (MLPs). Results are provided from applying these approaches to geoscientific datasets covering a region in North Western Victoria, Australia. The results demonstrate that while both the Bayesian approach and the MLP approach yield similar results when the number of input dimensions is small, the Bayesian approach rapidly becomes unstable as the number of input dimensions increases, with the resulting maps displaying high sensitivity to the number of mixtures used to model the distributions. However, despite the fact that Bayesian assigned values cannot be interpreted as posterior probabilities in high dimensional input spaces, the pixel favorability rankings produced by the two methods is similar.

Evaluation of Bayesian belief networks for diagnosis of psychotic disorders

The thesis examined the inter-rater reliability and procedural validity of four computerised Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) which were developed to assist with the diagnosis of psychotic disorders. The results of this research indicated that BBNs can significantly improve diagnostic reliability and may represent an important advance over current diagnostic methods. The professional portfolio investigated, through the presentation of case studies and review of literature relevant to each case study, how comorbidity and context of depression may impact on cognitive behavioural therapy treatment.

Learning other agents' preferences in multi-agent negotiation using the bayesian classifier

In multi-agent systems, most of the time, an agent does not have complete information about the preferences and decision making processes of other agents. This prevents even the cooperative agents from making coordinated choices, purely due to their ignorance of what others want. To overcome this problem, traditional coordination methods rely heavily on inter-agent communication, and thus become very inefficient when communication is costly or simply not desirable (e.g. to preserve privacy). In this paper, we propose the use of learning to complement communication in acquiring knowledge about other agents. We augment the communication-intensive negotiating agent architecture with a learning module, implemented as a Bayesian classifier. This allows our agents to incrementally update models of other agents' preferences from past negotiations with them. Based on these models, the agents can make sound predictions about others' preferences, thus reducing the need for communication in their future interactions.

A neural network-based multi-agent classifier system with a Bayesian formalism for trust measurement

In this paper, a neural network (NN)-based multi-agent classifier system (MACS) utilising the trust-negotiation-communication (TNC) reasoning model is proposed. A novel trust measurement method, based on the combination of Bayesian belief functions, is incorporated into the TNC model. The Fuzzy Min-Max (FMM) NN is used as learning agents in the MACS, and useful modifications of FMM are proposed so that it can be adopted for trust measurement. Besides, an auctioning procedure, based on the sealed bid method, is applied for the negotiation phase of the TNC model. Two benchmark data sets are used to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed MACS. The results obtained compare favourably with those from a number of machine learning methods. The applicability of the proposed MACS to two industrial sensor data fusion and classification tasks is also demonstrated, with the implications analysed and discussed.

Factorial multi-task learning : a Bayesian nonparametric approach

Multi-task learning is a paradigm shown to improve the performance of related tasks through their joint learning. However, for real-world data, it is usually difficult to assess the task relatedness and joint learning with unrelated tasks may lead to serious performance degradations. To this end, we propose a framework that groups the tasks based on their relatedness in a subspace and allows a varying degree of relatedness among tasks by sharing the subspace bases across the groups. This provides the flexibility of no sharing when two sets of tasks are unrelated and partial/total sharing when the tasks are related. Importantly, the number of task-groups and the subspace dimensionality are automatically inferred from the data. To realize our framework, we introduce a novel Bayesian nonparametric prior that extends the traditional hierarchical beta process prior using a Dirichlet process to permit potentially infinite number of child beta processes. We apply our model for multi-task regression and classification applications. Experimental results using several synthetic and real datasets show the superiority of our model to other recent multi-task learning methods. Copyright 2013 by the author(s).