Low impact of chytridiomycosis on frog recruitment enables persistence in refuges despite high adult mortality

The global chytridiomycosis pandemic caused by the pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (. Bd) is implicated in the apparent extinction or severe decline of over 200 amphibian species. Many declined species now only persist in isolated remnant populations. In this study we examine how remnant populations coexist with Bd, focusing on disease impact on adult survival and recruitment potential in the chytridiomycosis-threatened frog Litoria verreauxii alpina. Using skeletochronology we found that the adult male population in both 2011 and 2012 was dominated by a two year old age cohort. The lack of recruitment into the three year old cohort in 2012 indicates that annual adult survival is very low. Combined with high Bd prevalence and heavy infection burdens, the pathogen appears to drive almost complete mortality of breeding adults over their first breeding season. However, adults successfully mate prior to large increases in disease prevalence that occurs during the breeding season. Infection prevalence among tadpoles and juveniles is low. Exposure to warm water could provide a mechanism for avoiding or clearing Bd infection. Relatively low Bd prevalence in juveniles prior to dispersal into terrestrial habitat indicates that Bd has minimal impact on early life history stages. As such, recruitment is probably high, allowing populations to persist despite low adult survival. This dependence on reliable annual recruitment may explain why remnant populations persist in permanent ponds rather than ephemeral ponds that were historically occupied. New management strategies that focus on increasing recruitment may provide a way forward for the management of disease-threatened amphibian species.

High adult mortality in disease-challenged frog populations increases vulnerability to drought

Pathogen emergence can drive major changes in host population demography, with implications for population dynamics and sensitivity to environmental fluctuations. The amphibian disease chytridiomycosis, caused by infection with the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), is implicated in the severe decline of over 200 amphibian species. In species that have declined but not become extinct, Bd persists and can cause substantial ongoing mortality. High rates of mortality associated with Bd may drive major changes in host demography, but this process is poorly understood. Here, we compared population age structure of Bd-infected populations, Bd-free populations, and museum specimens collected prior to Bd emergence for the endangered Australian frog, Litoria verreauxii alpina (alpine tree frog). We then used population simulations to investigate how pathogen-associated demographic shifts affect the ability of populations to persist in stochastic environments. We found that Bd-infected populations have a severely truncated age structure associated with very high rates of annual adult mortality. Near-complete annual adult turnover in Bd-infected populations means that individuals breed once, compared with Bd-free populations where adults may breed across multiple years. Our simulations showed that truncated age structure erodes the capacity of populations to withstand periodic recruitment failure; a common challenge for species reproducing in uncertain environments. We document previously undescribed demographic shifts associated with a globally emerging pathogen and demonstrate how these shifts alter host ecology. Truncation of age structure associated with Bd effectively reduces host niche width, and can help explain the contraction of L. v. alpina to perennial waterbodies where the risk of drought-induced recruitment failure is low. Reduced capacity to tolerate other sources of mortality may explain variation in decline severity among other chytridiomycosis-challenged species and highlights the potential to mitigate disease impacts through minimising other sources of mortality.

Socio-economic inequalities in mortality persist into old age in New Zealand : study of all 65 years plus, 2001-04

A number of studies have explored the relationship between socioeconomic status (SES) and mortality, although these have mostly been based on the working age population, despite the fact that the burden of mortality is highest in older people. Using Poisson regression on linked New Zealand census and mortality data (2001 to 2004, 1.3 million person years) with a comprehensive set of socioeconomic indicators (education, income, car access, housing tenure, neighourhood deprivation) we examined the association of socioeconomic characteristics and older adult mortality (65+ years) in New Zealand. We found that socioeconomic mortality gradients persist into old age. Substantial relative risks of mortality were observed for all socioeconomic factors, except housing tenure. Most relative risk associations decreased in strength with aging (e.g. most deprived compared to least deprived rate ratio for males reducing from 1.40 (95% CI 1.28 to 1.53) for 65-74 year olds to 1.13 (1.00 to 1.28) for 85+ year olds), except for income and education among women where the rate ratios changed little with increasing age. This suggests individual level measures of SES are more closely related to mortality in older women than older men. Comparing across genders, the only statistically significantly different association between men and women was for a weaker association for women for car access.

Aid and institutions in transition economies

We investigate whether aid contributed to institutional development in transition economies. We find that aid flows have a positive effect on democratization, especially on constraints on the executive and political participation. At the same time, total aid has no effect on overall quality of governance, while US aid appears to have a negative impact on some dimensions of governance. Aid's differential impact on democracy and governance is consistent with uneven development of institutions and the democracy consolidation hypothesis. We also find that aid has a non-linear effect on democracy. Openness has a positive effect on both democracy and good governance. Oil resources have an adverse effect on democracy. Adult mortality, civil war and adherence to Islam are all detrimental to good governance.

Mortality and use of the auxiliary score in extensive toxic epidermal necrolysis patients admitted to an adult burns referral centre

 Background: Toxic epidermal necrolysis (TEN) is a rare but fatal condition characterised by cutaneous exfoliation of the dermoepidermal layer and mucosal surfaces. Extensive TEN with epidermal detachment >30% of the total body surface area has been associated with a high mortality. Objective: This study aims to evaluate factors associated with mortality in extensive TEN. In the absence of data to qualify scoring systems such as SCORTEN, this study also aims to evaluate the use of the auxiliary score as a tool for calculating expected mortality. Methods: A retrospective chart review of all patients presenting to our burns service with extensive TEN was undertaken. Application and evaluation of the auxiliary score was also undertaken for this patient population. Results: In extensive TEN, age and delay in admission to a burns centre were factors associated with mortality. Applying the auxiliary score to our patient population, there were no significant differences between expected mortality and observed mortality. Conclusion: Mortality was associated with age and delay in definitive treatment in extensive TEN. Whilst SCORTEN is the gold standard prognostic tool for patients with TEN, in the absence of SCORTEN values, the auxiliary score provides an alternative scoring system to evaluate expected mortality.

Lateral positioning for critically ill adult patients

We aim to assess the effect of the lateral position compared to other body positions on patient outcomes (mortality, morbidity and clinical adverse events during and following positioning) in critically ill adult patients. We will examine the single use of the lateral position (that is on the right or left side) and repeat use of the lateral position(s) in a positioning schedule (that is lateral positioning). We plan to undertake subgroup analysis for primary disease and condition, severity of illness, the presence of assisted ventilation and angle of lateral rotation.

Chemical immobilization of adult female Weddell seals with tiletamine and zolazepam: effects of age, condition and stage of lactation

Background

Chemical immobilization of Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii) has previously been, for the most part, problematic and this has been mainly attributed to the type of immobilizing agent used. In addition to individual sensitivity, physiological status may play an important role. We investigated the use of the intravenous administration of a 1:1 mixture of tiletamine and zolazepam (Telazol®) to immobilize adult females at different points during a physiologically demanding 5–6 week lactation period. We also compared performance between IV and IM injection of the same mixture.
Results

The tiletamine:zolazepam mixture administered intravenously was an effective method for immobilization with no fatalities or pronounced apnoeas in 106 procedures; however, there was a 25 % (one animal in four) mortality rate with intramuscular administration. Induction time was slightly longer for females at the end of lactation (54.9 ± 2.3 seconds) than at post-parturition (48.2 ± 2.9 seconds). In addition, the number of previous captures had a positive effect on induction time. There was no evidence for effects due to age, condition (total body lipid), stage of lactation or number of captures on recovery time.
Conclusion

We suggest that intravenous administration of tiletamine and zolazepam is an effective and safe immobilizing agent for female Weddell seals. Although individual traits could not explain variation in recovery time, we suggest careful monitoring of recovery times during longitudinal studies (> 2 captures). We show that physiological pressures do not substantially affect response to chemical immobilization with this mixture; however, consideration must be taken for differences that may exist for immobilization of adult males and juveniles. Nevertheless, we recommend a mass-specific dose of 0.50 – 0.65 mg/kg for future procedures with adult female Weddell seals and a starting dose of 0.50 mg/kg for other age classes and other phocid seals.

An intraspecific killing in adult Pacific reef egrets (Egretta sacra)

Intraspecific killing without cannibalism is rare in birds. I report an observation of an adult Pacific Reef Egret (Egretta sacra) killing an adult conspecific at One Tree Island, Great Barrier Reef, Australia. The motivation and context for the killing were not apparent. To the best of my knowledge, this is the first report of intraspecific killing in Pacific Reef Egrets.

Lateral positioning for critically ill adult patients: a systematic review

A systematic review was undertaken to evaluate the effect of lateral positioning compared to other body positions on morbidity, mortality, and clinical adverse events for critically ill patients. Twenty three studies met the criteria. Hypoxaemia was not consistently reported. No clinical practice recommendations could be drawn from the included studies due to methodological shortcomings.

Increased mortality of naive varanid lizards after the invasion of non-native can toads (bufo marinus)

Exotic animal and plant species introduced into the Australian continent often imparted catastrophic effects on the indigenous fauna and flora. Proponents of biological control introduced the South American Cane Toad (Bufo marinus) into the sugar cane fields of Queensland in 1935. The Cane Toad is one of the most toxic bufonids and when seized by naive Australian predators, the toxin usually kills the attacker. One group of Australian squamate reptiles that are very susceptible to Cane Toad toxins is varanid lizards. Prior to Cane Toad invasion of our study area, the Adelaide River floodplain of the Northern Territory of Australia, annual mortality of adult male radio-tagged yellow-spotted Goannas (Varanus panoptes) was very low. After the arrival of toads in October 2005, all radio-tracked goannas were found dead in August 2006, most likely attempting to feed on the toads. Our results suggest that invasive Cane Toads place naive adult male Yellow-spotted Goannas at risk of possibly >90% mortality. This increase in mortality could reduce the genetic diversity and hamper long-term survival of these large carnivorous lizards.

Comparing mortality outcomes of major burns and toxic epidermal necrolysis in a tertiary burns centre

 Introduction
Our aim was to provide descriptive information to burn clinicians, who have extensive experience treating major burns and determining prognosis, as to whether significant differences in mortality exist between major burns injuries and the comparatively less common toxic epidermal necrolysis for a given age and total body surface area percentage.

Methods
Retrospective data was analyzed of all deceased patients admitted to the Victorian Adult Burns Service in Melbourne, Australia over a period of 10 years with greater than 30% total body surface area burned or greater than 30% total body surface area epidermal detachment in the case of toxic epidermal necrolysis. Retrospective data was also collected on all patients, survivors and deceased, with toxic epidermal necrolysis and these patients were matched with burns patients by age and % total body surface area burned. Comparisons in outcomes were performed with mortality being the primary variable of interest.

Results
Toxic epidermal necrolysis patients that died were older (median: 68.5 vs 57 yrs; P = 0.04), had a longer length of hospital stay (36.5 vs 0.8 days; P = 0.001) and significantly longer periods of mechanical ventilation (1404 vs 14.5 h; P = 0.011) than major burns patients that died. When toxic epidermal necrolysis patients were matched to major burns patients by age and total body surface area burned, there were no significant differences between the two groups with respect to mortality.

Conclusion
Palliative care approaches are more frequently administered at the time of presentation for major burns patients in comparison to toxic epidermal necrolysis patients. This may be due to a perception that if toxic epidermal necrolysis patients can survive their initial systemic injury, they are likely to survive, as opposed to major burns patients who often undergo extensive surgery and for whom other factors should be taken into account in the context of end-of-life decision making.

Toward a standard approach to measurement and reporting of perioperative mortality rate as a global indicator for surgery

INTRODUCTION: The proportion of patients who die during or after surgery, otherwise known as the perioperative mortality rate (POMR), is a credible indicator of the safety and quality of operative care. Its accuracy and usefulness as a metric, however, particularly one that enables valid comparisons over time or between jurisdictions, has been limited by lack of a standardized approach to measurement and calculation, poor understanding of when in relation to surgery it is best measured, and whether risk-adjustment is needed. Our aim was to evaluate the value of POMR as a global surgery metric by addressing these issues using 4, large, mixed, surgical datasets that represent high-, middle-, and low-income countries. METHODS: We obtained data from the New Zealand National Minimum Dataset, the Geelong Hospital patient management system in Australia, and purpose-built surgical databases in Pietermaritzburg, South Africa, and Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. For each site, we calculated the POMR overall as well as for nonemergency and emergency admissions. We assessed the effect of admission episodes and procedures as the denominator and the difference between in-hospital POMR and POMR, including postdischarge deaths up to 30 days. To determine the need for risk-adjustment for age and admission urgency, we used univariate and multivariate logistic regression to assess the effect on relative POMR for each site. RESULTS: A total of 1,362,635 patient admissions involving 1,514,242 procedures were included. More than 60% of admissions in Pietermaritzburg and Port Moresby were emergencies, compared with less than 30% in New Zealand and Geelong. Also, Pietermaritzburg and Port Moresby had much younger patient populations (P < .001). A total of 8,655 deaths were recorded within 30 days, and 8-20% of in-hospital deaths occurred on the same day as the first operation. In-hospital POMR ranged approximately 9-fold, from 0.38 per 100 admissions in New Zealand to 3.44 per 100 admissions in Pietermaritzburg. In New Zealand, in-hospital 30-day POMR underestimated total 30-day POMR by approximately one third. The difference in POMR if procedures were used instead of admission episodes ranged from 7 to 70%, although this difference was less when central line and pacemaker insertions were excluded. Age older than 65 years and emergency admission had large, independent effects on POMR but relatively little effect in multivariate analysis on the relative odds of in-hospital death at each site. CONCLUSION: It is possible to collect POMR in countries at all level of development. Although age and admission urgency are strong, independent associations with POMR, a substantial amount of its variance is site-specific and may reflect the safety of operative and anesthetic facilities and processes. Risk-adjustment is desirable but not essential for monitoring system performance. POMR varies depending on the choice of denominator, and in-hospital deaths appear to underestimate 30-day mortality by up to one third. Standardized approaches to reporting and analysis will strengthen the validity of POMR as the principal indicator of the safety of surgery and anesthesia care.

The effect of modifiable risk factors on geographic mortality differentials: a modelling study

BACKGROUND: Australian mortality rates are higher in regional and remote areas than in major cities. The degree to which this is driven by variation in modifiable risk factors is unknown. METHODS: We applied a risk prediction equation incorporating smoking, cholesterol and blood pressure to a national, population based survey to project all-causes mortality risk by geographic region. We then modelled life expectancies at different levels of mortality risk by geographic region using a risk percentiles model. Finally we set high values of each risk factor to a target level and modelled the subsequent shift in the population to lower levels of mortality risk and longer life expectancy. RESULTS: Survival is poorer in both Inner Regional and Outer Regional/Remote areas compared to Major Cities for men and women at both high and low levels of predicted mortality risk. For men smoking, high cholesterol and high systolic blood pressure were each associated with the mortality difference between Major Cities and Outer Regional/Remote areas--accounting for 21.4%, 20.3% and 7.7% of the difference respectively. For women smoking and high cholesterol accounted for 29.4% and 24.0% of the difference respectively but high blood pressure did not contribute to the observed mortality differences. The three risk factors taken together accounted for 45.4% (men) and 35.6% (women) of the mortality difference. The contribution of risk factors to the corresponding differences for inner regional areas was smaller, with only high cholesterol and smoking contributing to the difference in men-- accounting for 8.8% and 6.3% respectively-- and only smoking contributing to the difference in women--accounting for 12.3%. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that health intervention programs aimed at smoking, blood pressure and total cholesterol could have a substantial impact on mortality inequities for Outer Regional/Remote areas.

Mortality trends among people with type 1 and type 2 diabetes in Australia: 1997-2010

OBJECTIVE: With improvements in cardiovascular disease (CVD) rates among people with diabetes, mortality rates may also be changing. However, these trends may be influenced by coding practices of CVD-related deaths on death certificates. We analyzed trends of mortality over 13 years in people with diabetes and quantified the potential misclassification of CVD mortality according to current coding methods. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A total of 1,136,617 Australians with diabetes registered on the National Diabetes Services Scheme between 1997 and 2010 were linked to the National Death Index. Excess mortality relative to the Australian population was reported as standardized mortality ratios (SMRs). Potential misclassification of CVD mortality was determined by coding CVD according to underlying cause of death (COD) and then after consideration of both the underlying and other causes listed in part I of the death certificate. RESULTS: For type 1 diabetes, the SMR decreased in males from 4.20 in 1997 to 3.08 in 2010 (Ptrend < 0.001) and from 3.92 to 3.46 in females (Ptrend < 0.01). For type 2 diabetes, the SMR decreased in males from 1.40 to 1.21 (Ptrend < 0.001) and from 1.56 to 1.22 in females (Ptrend < 0.001). CVD deaths decreased from 35.6 to 31.2% and from 31.5 to 27.2% in males and females with type 1 diabetes, respectively (Ptrend < 0.001 for both sexes). For type 2 diabetes, CVD decreased from 44.5 to 29.2% in males and from 45.5 to 31.6% in females (Ptrend < 0.001 for both sexes). Using traditional coding methods, ∼38 and 26% of CVD deaths are underestimated in type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: All-cause and CVD mortality has decreased in diabetes. However, the total CVD mortality burden is underestimated when only underlying COD is considered. This has important ramifications for understanding mortality patterns in diabetes.