Validity and reliability of a voice-recognition game analysis system for field sports

The purpose of this study was to assess the ability of observers to use voice-recognition analysis to accurately classify gait transitions and quantify gait durations typical of team games. Inter-rater and intra-rater reliability was also determined. Four males were filmed performing pre-determined gait protocols, each comprising different sequences of walking, jogging. running and sprinting. Two operators independently classified gait transitions and the time spent in each gait was determined by the voice recognition system. All gait modes as measured by trained observers demonstrated statistically significant correlations (p<O.O I) to predetermined measurement criteria. The mean absolute error for all gait transitions was less than half a second (0.32-0.36 5) with the maximum percentage error being approximately 4% for the walk, jog and run gaits and 10% for sprinting. Gait classification error was low at 1-9%. The intra-rater and inter-rater reliability was consistently high ranging from r =' 0.87 to 0.99. In conclusion, observers using voice-recognition software provided valid measures of time spent in each of the four gait categories with 90% or better accuracy achieved.

Characterization and prediction of issue-related risks in software projects

Identifying risks relevant to a software project and planning measures to deal with them are critical to the success of the project. Current practices in risk assessment mostly rely on high-level, generic guidance or the subjective judgements of experts. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to risk assessment using historical data associated with a software project. Specifically, our approach identifies patterns of past events that caused project delays, and uses this knowledge to identify risks in the current state of the project. A set of risk factors characterizing “risky” software tasks (in the form of issues) were extracted from five open source projects: Apache, Duraspace, JBoss, Moodle, and Spring. In addition, we performed feature selection using a sparse logistic regression model to select risk factors with good discriminative power. Based on these risk factors, we built predictive models to predict if an issue will cause a project delay. Our predictive models are able to predict both the risk impact (i.e. the extend of the delay) and the likelihood of a risk occurring. The evaluation results demonstrate the effectiveness of our predictive models, achieving on average 48%-81% precision, 23%-90% recall, 29%-71% F-measure, and 70%-92% Area Under the ROC Curve. Our predictive models also have low error rates: 0.39-0.75 for Macro-averaged Mean Cost-Error and 0.7-1.2 for Macro-averaged Mean Absolute Error.

Fast vision-based catheter 3D reconstruction

Continuum robots offer better maneuverability and inherent compliance and are well-suited for surgical applications as catheters, where gentle interaction with the environment is desired. However, sensing their shape and tip position is a challenge as traditional sensors can not be employed in the way they are in rigid robotic manipulators. In this paper, a high speed vision-based shape sensing algorithm for real-time 3D reconstruction of continuum robots based on the views of two arbitrary positioned cameras is presented. The algorithm is based on the closed-form analytical solution of the reconstruction of quadratic curves in 3D space from two arbitrary perspective projections. High-speed image processing algorithms are developed for the segmentation and feature extraction from the images. The proposed algorithms are experimentally validated for accuracy by measuring the tip position, length and bending and orientation angles for known circular and elliptical catheter shaped tubes. Sensitivity analysis is also carried out to evaluate the robustness of the algorithm. Experimental results demonstrate good accuracy (maximum errors of  ±0.6 mm and  ±0.5 deg), performance (200 Hz), and robustness (maximum absolute error of 1.74 mm, 3.64 deg for the added noises) of the proposed high speed algorithms.

Forecasting daily patient outflow from a ward having no real-time clinical data

OBJECTIVE: Our study investigates different models to forecast the total number of next-day discharges from an open ward having no real-time clinical data.

METHODS: We compared 5 popular regression algorithms to model total next-day discharges: (1) autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), (2) the autoregressive moving average with exogenous variables (ARMAX), (3) k-nearest neighbor regression, (4) random forest regression, and (5) support vector regression. Although the autoregressive integrated moving average model relied on past 3-month discharges, nearest neighbor forecasting used median of similar discharges in the past in estimating next-day discharge. In addition, the ARMAX model used the day of the week and number of patients currently in ward as exogenous variables. For the random forest and support vector regression models, we designed a predictor set of 20 patient features and 88 ward-level features.

RESULTS: Our data consisted of 12,141 patient visits over 1826 days. Forecasting quality was measured using mean forecast error, mean absolute error, symmetric mean absolute percentage error, and root mean square error. When compared with a moving average prediction model, all 5 models demonstrated superior performance with the random forests achieving 22.7% improvement in mean absolute error, for all days in the year 2014.

CONCLUSIONS: In the absence of clinical information, our study recommends using patient-level and ward-level data in predicting next-day discharges. Random forest and support vector regression models are able to use all available features from such data, resulting in superior performance over traditional autoregressive methods. An intelligent estimate of available beds in wards plays a crucial role in relieving access block in emergency departments.

Automatic generation control of multigeneration power system

Load frequency Control (LFC) is used for many years as part of Automatic Generation Control (AGC) in power system around the world. In a mixed power system, it is usual to find an area regulated by hydro generation interconnected to another area regulated by thermal generation or in combination of both. In the following study, performance of AGC for Thermal, Hydro and Thermal turbine based power system is examined, including how frequency bias setting influences AGC responseand inadvertent interchange. Control performance analysis of three area interconnected systems is simulated and studied through Matlab Simulink software. Integral square error and Integral time absolute error has been used as performance criterion. It is shown that integral timeabsolute error (ITAE) as performance index leads to faster optimization of controller gain.

The relative and absolute reliability of two balance performance measures in chronic stroke patients

Purpose. To examine the relative reliability and absolute reliability of the Berg Balance Scale (BBS) and the Postural Assessment Scale for Stroke Patients (PASS) in chronic stroke patients. Method. A total of 52 mild to moderate stroke patients, who had a stroke more than 6 months previously, participated in the study. Both balance measures were administered twice, seven days apart, to the patients. A relative reliability index (intra-class correlation coefficient, ICC2,1) was used to examine the level of agreement between test and retest. Absolute reliability indices, including the Bland and Altman method, the standard error of measurement (SEM), and the smallest real differences (SRD), were used to define the extent to which a balance score varies on test-retest measurements. Results. Test-retest agreements were high (ICC2,1: BBS = 0.98; PASS = 0.97), indicating excellent agreement from a relative perspective. The SEM of the BBS and PASS, representing the smallest change threshold that indicates a real improvement for a group of individuals, were 2.4 and 1.1, respectively. The SRD of the BBS and PASS were 6.7 and 3.2, respectively, exhibiting the smallest change threshold that indicates a real improvement for a single individual. Conclusions. The test-retest agreements of the BBS and PASS were high in mild to moderate chronic stroke patients. The thresholds of both measures to detect real change are acceptable in research and clinical settings.

Market effects on forecasting construction prices using vector error correction models

Construction price forecasting is an essential component to facilitate decision-making for construction contractors, investors and related financial institutions. Construction economists are increasingly interested in seeking a more analytical method to forecast construction prices. Although many studies have focused on construction price modelling and forecasting, few have considered the impacts of large-scale economic events and seasonality. In this study, an advanced multivariate modelling technique, namely the vector correction (VEC) model with dummy variables, was employed. The impacts of global economic events and seasonality are factored into the model to forecast the construction price in the Australian construction market. Research findings suggest that both long-run and dynamic short-term causal relationships exist among the price and levels of supply and demand in the construction market. These relationships drive the construction price and supply and demand, which interact with one another as a loop system. The reliability of forecasting models was examined by the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the Theil's inequality coefficient U tests. The test results suggest that the conventional VEC model and the VEC model with dummy variable are both acceptable for forecasting the construction price, while the VEC model considering external impacts achieves higher prediction accuracy than the conventional VEC model. © 2014 © 2014 Taylor & Francis.

A panel vector error correction approach to forecasting demand in regional construction markets

Reliable forecasting as to the level of aggregate demand for construction is of vital importance to developers, builders and policymakers. Previous construction demand forecasting studies mainly focused on temporal estimating using national aggregate data. The construction market can be better represented by a group of interconnected regions or local markets rather than a national aggregate, and yet regional forecasting techniques have rarely been applied. Furthermore, limited research has applied regional variations in construction markets to construction demand modelling and forecasting. A new comprehensive method is used, a panel vector error correction approach, to forecast regional construction demand using Australia’s state-level data. The links between regional construction demand and general economic indicators are investigated by panel cointegration and causality analysis. The empirical results suggest that both long-run and causal links are found between regional construction demand and construction price, state income, population, unemployment rates and interest rates. The panel vector error correction model can provide reliable and robust forecasting with less than 10% of the mean absolute percentage error for a medium-term trend of regional construction demand and outperforms the conventional forecasting models (panel multiple regression and time series multiple regression model). The key macroeconomic factors of construction demand variations across regions in Australia are also presented. The findings and robust econometric techniques used are valuable to construction economists in examining future construction markets at a regional level.