Land management practices associated with house loss in wildfires.

Losses to life and property from unplanned fires (wildfires) are forecast to increase because of population growth in peri-urban areas and climate change. In response, there have been moves to increase fuel reduction--clearing, prescribed burning, biomass removal and grazing--to afford greater protection to peri-urban communities in fire-prone regions. But how effective are these measures? Severe wildfires in southern Australia in 2009 presented a rare opportunity to address this question empirically. We predicted that modifying several fuels could theoretically reduce house loss by 76%-97%, which would translate to considerably fewer wildfire-related deaths. However, maximum levels of fuel reduction are unlikely to be feasible at every house for logistical and environmental reasons. Significant fuel variables in a logistic regression model we selected to predict house loss were (in order of decreasing effect): (1) the cover of trees and shrubs within 40 m of houses, (2) whether trees and shrubs within 40 m of houses was predominantly remnant or planted, (3) the upwind distance from houses to groups of trees or shrubs, (4) the upwind distance from houses to public forested land (irrespective of whether it was managed for nature conservation or logging), (5) the upwind distance from houses to prescribed burning within 5 years, and (6) the number of buildings or structures within 40 m of houses. All fuel treatments were more effective if undertaken closer to houses. For example, 15% fewer houses were destroyed if prescribed burning occurred at the observed minimum distance from houses (0.5 km) rather than the observed mean distance from houses (8.5 km). Our results imply that a shift in emphasis away from broad-scale fuel-reduction to intensive fuel treatments close to property will more effectively mitigate impacts from wildfires on peri-urban communities.

The influence of time since fire and distance from fire boundary on the distribution and abundance of arboreal marsupials in Eucalyptus regnans-dominated forest in the Central Highlands of Victoria

The impact of time since fire after two consecutive wildfires 44 years apart (1939 and 1983) within the same area, and the distance from the fire boundary «100 m or 500-2000 m), were investigated in relation to the distribution and abundance of arboreal marsupials in 1994. Arboreal marsupials were censused by stagwatching and spotlighting in two relatively young age classes of mountain ash (Eucalyptus regnans) dominated forest in the Central Highlands of Victoria. Five species of arboreal marsupial were detected, but only three were detected in sufficient numbers to determine habitat preferences. Petauroides volans (greater glider) was statistically more abundant in 1939 regrowth forests, while Trichosurus caninus (mountain brushtail possum) showed no significant preference for either age class of forest. All but one record of Gymnobelideus leadbeateri (Leadbeater's possum) came from young forest, though the effect of age-class was not statistically significant. Distance from fire boundary explained little or no variation in mammal distribution or abundance. While the actual number of hollow-bearing trees was similar in both age classes of forest, the long-term lifespan of hollow-bearing trees in more recently burnt forest is predicted to be lower than in unburnt or not recently burnt forest. Post-fire salvage logging following the 1983 wildfires appears to have reduced the number of hollow-bearing trees at sites burnt in 1983.

Heating effects on water repellency in Australian eucalypt forest soils and their value in estimating wildfire soil temperatures

Wildfires can induce or enhance soil water repellency under a range of vegetation communities. According to mainly USA-based laboratory studies, repellency is eliminated at a maximum soil temperature (T) of 280–400°C. Knowledge of T reached during a wildfire is important in evaluating post-fire soil physical properties, fertility and seedbed status. T is, however, notoriously difficult to ascertain retrospectively and often based on indicative observations with a large potential error. Soils under fire-prone Australian eucalypt forests tend to be water repellent when dry or moderately moist even if long unburnt. This study aims to quantify the temperature of water repellency destruction for Australian topsoil material sampled under three sites with contrasting eucalypt cover (Eucalyptus sieberi, E. ovata and E. baxteri). Soil water repellency was present prior to heating in all samples, increased during heating, but was abruptly eliminated at a specific T between 260 and 340°C. Elimination temperature varied somewhat between samples, but was found to be dependent on heating duration, with longest duration resulting in lowest elimination temperature. Results suggest that post-fire water repellency may be used as an aid in hindcasting soil temperature reached during the passage of a fire within repellency-prone environments.

Decision making effectiveness in wildfire incident management teams

During large scale wildfires, suppression activities are carried out under the direction of an Incident Management Team (IMT). The aim of the research was to increase understanding of decision processes potentially related to IMT effectiveness. An IMT comprises four major functions: Command, Operations, Planning, and Logistics. Four methodologies were used to study IMT processes: computer simulation experiments; analyses of wildfire reports; interviews with IMT members; and cognitive ethnographic studies of IMTs. Three processes were important determinants of IMT effectiveness: information management and cognitive overload; matching component function goals to overall goals; and team metacognition to detect and counter task-disruptive developments. These processes appear to be complex multi-person analogues of individual Incident Command processes identified previously. The findings have implications for issues such as: creating IMTs; training IMTs; managing IMTs; and providing decision support to IMTs.

Planning for ember attack within the interface

This dissertation explores the relationship between the urban rural interface, with particular reference to air pressure, wind patterns, and the build up of hot ash deposits adjacent to combustible surfaces, in order to devise strategies relating to the design of building forms.

The short-term responses of small mammals to wildfire in semiarid mallee shrubland, Australia

Context. Wildfire is a major driver of the structure and function of mallee eucalypt- and spinifex-dominated landscapes. Understanding how fire influences the distribution of biota in these fire-prone environments is essential for effective ecological and conservation-based management.

Aims. We aimed to (1) determine the effects of an extensive wildfire (118 000 ha) on a small mammal community in the mallee shrublands of semiarid Australia and (2) assess the hypothesis that the fire-response patterns of small mammals can be predicted by their life-history characteristics.

Methods. Small-mammal surveys were undertaken concurrently at 26 sites: once before the fire and on four occasions following the fire (including 14 sites that remained unburnt). We documented changes in small-mammal occurrence before and after the fire, and compared burnt and unburnt sites. In addition, key components of vegetation structure were assessed at each site.

Key results. Wildfire had a strong influence on vegetation structure and on the occurrence of small mammals. The mallee ningaui, Ningaui yvonneae, a dasyurid marsupial, showed a marked decline in the immediate post-fire environment, corresponding with a reduction in hummock-grass cover in recently burnt vegetation. Species richness of native small mammals was positively associated with unburnt vegetation, although some species showed no clear response to wildfire.

Conclusions. Our results are consistent with the contention that mammal responses to fire are associated with their known life-history traits. The species most strongly affected by wildfire, N. yvonneae, has the most specific habitat requirements and restricted life history of the small mammals in the study area. The only species positively associated with recently burnt vegetation, the introduced house mouse, Mus domesticus, has a flexible life history and non-specialised resource requirements.

Implications. Maintaining sources for recolonisation after large-scale wildfires will be vital to the conservation of native small mammals in mallee ecosystems.

Insights into the biodiversity and social benchmarking components of the Northern Australian fire management and carbon abatement programmes

Much of northern Australia’s tropical savannas are subject to annual intense and extensive late dry season wildfires, much of this occurring on Aboriginal land. Based on the successful West Arnhem Land Fire Abatement (WALFA) model, which has resulted in significantly reduced greenhouse gas emissions, fire abatement programmes are planned for other significant regions of northern Australia. This study offers an introduction to the ideas behind a proposed environmental and social benchmarking project that aims to evaluate the potential benefits of expanding the fire abatement program in northern Australia, under the leadership of NAILSMA and its partners. Gaining a better understanding of the biodiversity, social and cultural outcomes of these fire abatement activities is an important component of demonstrating multiple benefits of these programmes. We emphasize the role of both biodiversity and cultural mapping to establish benchmarks and baseline states, with the involvement of Indigenous communities being a key element to optimize social and biodiversity benefits. Consultation with Traditional Owners and ranger groups to establish an agreed set of targets, indicators and sampling protocols and methodologies are critical component of this process. Examples of preliminary work to date are provided.

Effects of the fire regime on mammal occurrence after wildfire: site effects vs landscape context in fire-prone forests

Wildfires have major impacts on ecosystems globally. Fire regimes (including fire frequency, intensity, season and type of fire) influence the status of species by altering habitat suitability at the site scale, and by creating heterogeneity at the landscape scale. The relative effects of site and landscape-scale fire attributes on animal species are rarely examined together. Such knowledge is important, given that fire regimes are sensitive to changing land management practices; and that fires are predicted to become larger and more frequent in some regions as a result of climate change. Here, we tested the relative influence of elements of the fire regime (fire severity, fire history) at the site-scale, and the landscape context (extent of surrounding unburnt forest, fire heterogeneity) on the occurrence of native terrestrial mammals after severe wildfire in south-eastern Australia. We conducted surveys by using automatically triggered, infrared cameras at 80 sites in fire-prone eucalypt forests, 2-3. years post-wildfire. Thirteen native mammal species were recorded, eight of which were detected with sufficient frequency for analysis. Most species were widespread (35-90% of sites) and recorded in all fire severity classes. Fire effects at the site-level were more influential than landscape context effects arising from heterogeneity in the fire regime (e.g. extent of surrounding unburnt forest). Fire severity was the most influential of the fire-regime elements investigated, but it affected different species in different ways. This study highlights three main points relevant to conservation of terrestrial mammals after wildfire. First, spatial variation in fire severity associated with wildfire (ranging from unburned to severely burned stands) is an important contributor to the post-fire status of species. Second, post-fire environmental conditions are significant: here, rapid regeneration of vegetation following drought-breaking rains greatly influenced the suitability of post-fire habitats. Third, it is valuable to consider the effects of the fire regime at multiple scales, including both the site (forest stand) and its landscape context. Insights from short-term surveys, such as this, will be enhanced by complementary longitudinal studies, especially where they encompass environmental variation through the post-fire succession.

Oxygen uptake and heart rate during simulated wildfire suppression tasks performed by Australian rural firefighters

Objective: Australian rural fire crews safeguard the nation against the annual devastation of wildfire. We have previously reported that experienced firefighters identified seven physically demanding tasks for Australian rural fire crews suppressing wildfires. These firefighters rated the operational importance, typical duration, core fitness components, and likely frequency of the seven tasks. The intensity of these duties remains unknown. The aim of this study was to quantify the oxygen uptake (VO2), heart rate (HR) and movement speed responses during simulations of these physically demanding wildfire suppression tasks. Method: Twenty six rural firefighters (20 men, six women) performed up to seven tasks, during which time their HR and movement speed were recorded. The VO2 for each task was also calculated from the analysis of expired air collected in Douglas bags. Firefighters’ HR and movement speed were measured using HR monitors and portable global positioning system units, respectively. Results: The hose work tasks elicited a VO2 of 21-27 mL·kg-1·min-1 and peak HR of 77-87% age-predicted maximal HR (HRmax). Hand tool tasks were accompanied by VO2 of 28-34 mL·kg-1·min-1 and peak HR of 85-95%HRmax. Firefighters’ movement speed spanned 0.2 ± 0.1 to 1.8 ± 0.2 m·s-1 across the seven tasks. The cardiovascular responses in the hand tool tasks were, in most cases, higher (P<0.05) than during those elicited by the hose work tasks. Conclusions: The cardiovascular responses elicited during simulations of physically demanding wildfire suppression approximated those reported for similar tasks in urban and forestry fire fighting jurisdictions. The findings may prompt Australian rural fire agencies to consider cardiovascular disease risk screening and physical selection testing to ensure that healthy and fit firefighters are deployed to the fire ground.

Dominant drivers of seedling establishment in a fire-dependent obligate seeder: climate or fire regimes?

Climate change is causing fire regime shifts in ecosystems worldwide. Plant species with regeneration strategies strongly linked to a fire regime, such as obligate seeders, may be particularly threatened by these changes. It is unclear whether changes in fire regimes or the direct effects of climate change will be the dominant threats to obligate seeders in future. We investigated the relative importance of fire-related variables (fire return interval andfire severity) and environmental factors (climate and topography) on seedling establishment in the world's tallest angiosperm, an obligate seeder, Eucalyptus regnans. Throughout its range, this species dominates the wet montane forests of south-eastern Australia and plays a keystone role in forest structure. Following major wildfires, we investigated seedling establishment in E. regnanswithin 1 year of fire as this is a critical stage in the regeneration niche of obligate seeders. Seedling presence and abundance were strongly related to the occurrence of fire but not to variation in fire severity (moderate vs. high severity). Seedling abundance increased with increasing fire return interval (range 26-300 years). First-year seedling establishment was also strongly associated with low temperatures and with high elevations, high precipitation and persistent soil water availability. Our results show that both climate and fire regimes are strong drivers of E. regnans seedling establishment. The predicted warming and drying of the climate might reduce the regeneration potential for some obligate seeders in future and these threats are likely to be compounded by changes in fire regimes, particularly increases in fire frequency.

The dynamic regeneration niche of a forest following a rare disturbance event

Aim: Knowledge of how climate and fire regimes affect regeneration in foundation species is critical to the conservation of entire ecosystems. Different stages of regeneration often require different ecological conditions, but dynamic constraints on regeneration are poorly known for species that regenerate only after infrequent wildfires. Focussing on a long-lived, foundation tree species (Eucalyptus regnans), we tested the hypothesis that the relative importance of fire regime variables (fire severity and time since previous fire) and environmental gradients on post-fire regeneration would shift as seedlings developed. Location: South-eastern Australia. Methods: Following a large (> 59,000 ha) summer wildfire in 2009, we sampled 131 sites (61 burnt) annually for four years (2009-2012), representing the range of environmental conditions in which E. regnans occurs. We analysed the effect of fire severity, time since fire and environmental variables on early regeneration processes critical for post-fire species distributions: seedling establishment, seedling density and growth through different height stages (10 cm, 25 cm, 50 cm and 200 cm). Results: The regeneration niche of E. regnans was defined by different factors at different stages of development. Initially, seedlings established prolifically on burnt sites, regardless of severity. Three years into the regeneration process, high-severity fire became the dominant driver of seedling persistence and growth over 25 cm. Growth over 50 cm was dependent on environmental conditions relating to elevation and precipitation. Main conclusions: Our results describe how fire occurrence, fire severity and environmental gradients affected seedling establishment, persistence and growth. The dynamic constraints on regeneration likely reflect temporal changes in the biotic and abiotic environment and variation in resource requirements during the early post-fire years. Our findings will enable more accurate forecasts of species distributions to assist forest conservation in the face of global changes in climate and fire regimes.

Germination ecology and seed dispersal of a critically endangered plant: a case study of Pomaderris vacciniifolia (Round-leaf Pomaderris)

Change in ecosystem disturbance regimes from human land-use poses a worldwide problem for management of rare species. Two important types of disturbance influencing the persistence of species in Australian ecosystems are habitat fragmentation and fire. In this study, seed dispersal and the germination ecology of Pomaderris vacciniifolia-a critically endangered, rare endemic Australian shrub-were examined to identify likely influences of fire and fragmentation on the decline of populations. The response of seed germination to simulated effects of wildfire and canopy openings was investigated, as was the unaided dispersal capability of seeds from parent plants. A significant increase in germination rate was observed following 100°C heat treatment to seeds, while smoke and light exposure had little influence. Seed imbibition was strongly influenced by heat treatment. The findings indicate a likely positive post-fire germination response, with implications for recruitment success determined by moisture availability following fire. Unaided seed dispersal was limited, which partly explains the apparent decline of populations. Understanding disturbance requirements for threatened species, and subsequent management of landscapes for disturbance, will aid conservation of rare species throughout the world.

Fire and climatic extremes shape mammal distributions in a fire-prone landscape

Aim: Extreme climatic events and large wildfires are predicted to increase as the world's climate warms. Understanding how they shape species' distributions will be critical for conserving biodiversity. We used a 7-year dataset of mammals collected during and after south-east Australia's Millennium Drought to assess the roles of fire history, climatic extremes and their interactions in shaping mammal distributions. Location: Grampians National Park, south-eastern Australia.

Methods: We surveyed mammals at 36 sites along a ~50-year post-fire chronosequence in each of the 7 years. We modelled ten mammal species in relation to fire history, productivity and recent rainfall. Next, we examined the consistency of species' fire response curves across each of three climatic phases relating to the Millennium Drought. Finally, we identified the optimal distribution of fire ages for small and medium-sized mammal conservation in each of the three climatic phases.

Results: The majority of species were influenced by fire history, and all native species were negatively associated with recently burned vegetation. Seven of ten species responded positively to the end of the Millennium Drought, but six of these declined quickly thereafter. Species' responses to fire history differed depending on the climatic conditions. However, the optimal distribution of fire-age classes consistently emphasized the importance of older age classes, regardless of climatic phase. This distribution is in stark contrast to the current distribution of fire ages across the study region.

Main conclusions: Mammals in the study region face an uncertain future. The negative impact of drought, the short-lived nature of post-drought recovery and, now, the possibility of a new drought beginning forewarn of further declines. The stark contrast between the optimal and current fire-age distributions means that reducing the incidence of further fires is critical to enhance the capacity of native mammal communities to weather an increasingly turbulent climate.

Knowing wildfire risk: scientific interactions with risk mitigation policy and practice in Victoria, Australia

Over the past decade, major landscape wildfires (or ‘bushfires’ in Australia) in fire-prone countries have illustrated the seriousness of this global environmental problem. This natural hazard presents a complex mesh of dynamic factors for those seeking to reduce or manage its costs, as ignitions, hazard behaviour, and the reactions of different human and ecological communities during and after hazard events are all extremely uncertain. But while those at risk of wildfire have been subject to significant research, the social dimensions of its management, including the role of science, have received little attention. This paper reports on a case study of the Barwon-Otway area of Victoria in Australia, a high wildfire risk area that has recently been a pilot site for a new risk mitigation strategy utilising the wildfire simulation model PHOENIX RapidFire. Against simple equations between ‘more science’ and ‘less uncertainty,’ this paper presents results from interviews and a workshop with practitioners to investigate how scientific research interacts with and informs both wildfire policy and practice. We suggest that attending to cultural and social specificities of the application of any technical innovation—such as next generation modelling—raises questions for future research about the roles of narrative, performance, and other knowledges in the sedimentation of science.