Water security through scarcity pricing and reverse osmosis: a system dynamics approach

Water supply and demand planning is often conducted independently of social and economic strategies. There are presently no comprehensive life-cycle approaches to modelling urban water balances that incorporate economic feedbacks, such as tariff adjustment, which can in turn create a financing capacity for investment responses to low reservoir levels. This paper addresses this gap, and presents a system dynamics model that augments the usual water utility representation of the physical linkages of water grids, by adding inter-connected feedback loops in tariff structures, demand levels and financing capacity. The model, applied in the south-east Queensland region in Australia, enables simulation of alternatives and analysis of stocks and flows around a grid or portfolio of bulk supplies including an increasing proportion of rain-independent desalination plants. Such rain-independent water production plants complement the rain-dependent sources in the region and can potentially offer indefinite water security at a price. The study also shows how an alternative temporary drought pricing regime not only defers costly bulk supply infrastructure but actually generates greater price stability than traditional pricing approaches. The model has implications for water supply planners seeking to pro-actively plan, justify and finance portfolios of rain-dependent and rain-independent bulk water supply infrastructure. Interestingly, the modelling showed that a temporary drought pricing regime not only lowers the frequency and severity of water insecurity events but also reduces the long-run marginal cost of water supply for the region when compared to traditional reactive planning approaches that focus on restrictions to affect demand in scarcity periods.

Paradigm shift to enhanced water supply planning through augmented grids, scarcity pricing and adaptive factory water : a system dynamics approach

This paper details a system dynamics model developed to simulate proposed changes to water governance through the integration of supply, demand and asset management processes. To effectively accomplish this, interconnected feedback loops in tariff structures, demand levels and financing capacity are included in the model design, representing the first comprehensive life-cycle modelling of potable water systems. A number of scenarios were applied to Australia's populated South-east Queensland region, demonstrating that introducing temporary drought pricing (i.e. progressive water prices set inverse with availability), in conjunction with supply augmentation through rain-independent sources, is capable of efficiently providing water security in the future. Modelling demonstrated that this alternative tariff structure reduced demand in scarcity periods thereby preserving supply, whilst revenues are maintained to build new water supply infrastructure. In addition to exploring alternative tariffs, the potential benefits of using adaptive pressure-retarded osmosis desalination plants for both potable water and power generation was explored. This operation of these plants for power production, when they would otherwise be idle, shows promise in reducing their net energy and carbon footprints. Stakeholders in industry, government and academia were engaged in model development and validation. The constructed model displays how water resource systems can be reorganised to cope with systemic change and uncertainty.

Long-term water supply planning in an Australian coastal city : Dams or desalination?

Water resource managers and planners are continually involved in defining and evaluating alternative policies to better meet changing water supply conditions and the expectations of society. To undertake such long-term water supply planning, this study developed a novel integrated system dynamics model to combine economic, social and scientific variables and considerations within the planning horizon. Extensive sensitivity analysis for these variables was considered in this long term water resource planning process. The analysis suggests that over a longer time horizon, desalination provides a more viable, cost effective and secure bulk water supply alternative when compared to building large rain-dependent dams.

Charting Australia Felix : re-interpreting cultural landscape creation through a land health lens

The landscape of the Western District of Victoria has been extensively transformed in the imagery and aspirations of United Kingdom estates but markedly modified to address the climatic and agricultural prospects of the District landscape. By assembling land, the original squatters had a clean sheet to map, comprehend, and configure an economically viable pastoral estate. ‘Charting Australia Felix’ seeks to ascertain the spatial and geographical logic and rationale that informed this pastoral estate formation. These settlers mastered an economically viable estate that respected climate, soil quality and ensured water security which were the essential ingredients of a quality land holding; their successful grazing and specialisation were dependent upon these attributes. Thus, they successfully comprehended the essences of the landscape in line with contemporary land care and rural land management strategies. Charting Australia Felix involves the use of the historic landscape characterisation method to map, assess and model some 5 exemplar pastoral stations in the Western District to quantify their temporal landscape characteristics, their responses to landscape evolution, and change to test and quantify what the archetypes are that may have informed these patterns. Using Murndal and Glenormiston pastoral stations as the lens of investigation, a preliminary appraisal is offered in this paper.

Drawing lines in the sea : the laws that govern traffic on the world’s oceans can be as difficult to shape as water

Since World War II, however, the term has increasingly referred to law enforcement operations, as a means to enforce trade sanctions, to prevent the movement of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs), and particularly in the Caribbean Sea, to prevent the smuggling of illicit drugs. Such ambiguity should allow flexibility when deciding whom should be targeted, as well as allowing states with veto powers in the UN Security Council, which may legitimately ship nuclear weapons and materials, to avoid being targeted as long as they do not export WMDs to rogue states or non-state groups or individuals.2 The ISPS Code was created under the auspices of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and is part of the 1974 Safety of Life at Sea Convention (SOLAS) concerning the safety of merchant ships.

Water savings or water efficiency? Water-use attitudes and behaviour in rural and regional areas

Drought conditions in southwest Victoria, as in other regions of Australia and around the world, have caused the need to reduce water consumption to ensure security of supply into the future. To develop effective water-saving behaviour change strategies, an understanding of people's attitudes to the behaviour, including barriers stopping them from adopting the behaviour, is required. Thus, this paper explores the water-use behaviours and attitudes of rural and regional urban water users in southwest Victoria. A conceptual model of the factors impacting on water use of these users, including drivers and barriers to water saving, is developed. The factors that appear to impact on water-use behaviour not previously identified included the source of water supply (groundwater versus surface water), previous experience with water shortages and trust in the water authority and government. Also, a difference in the drivers for water saving was found, with farmers wanting to be 'water efficient' to keep their business viable and productive, while hobby farmers and residential users were 'saving water' for more altruistic reasons. These findings have implications for development of demand management strategies in this, and other, rural and regional areas. However, the conceptual model has to be tested to determine if it truly reflects factors influencing water-saving behaviour in rural and regional areas.

Food security: one of a number of ‘securities’ we need for a full life: an Australian perspective

Although agriculture in Australia is very productive, the current food supply systems in Australia fail to deliver healthy diets to all Australians and fail to protect the natural resources on which they depend. The operation of the food systems creates ‘collateral damage’ to the natural environment including biodiversity loss. In coming decades, Australia’s food supply systems will be increasingly challenged by resource price inflation and climate change. Australia exports more than half of its current agricultural production. Government and business are aiming to substantially increase production to bolster exports. This will increase pressure on agricultural resources and exacerbate ‘collateral’ damage to the environment. The Australian public have a deep and ongoing interest in a very wide range of issues associated with the food systems including the environment, health and sustainability. Food is something we require in order to live and a good diet is something we have to have to be healthy. For health over a life-time we need food security. However, we also require a range of other material goods and social arrangements in order to develop and flourish as human beings. And we need these other things to be secure over a life-time. Food is therefore one security among a range of other securities we need in order to flourish. The paper outlines a number of approaches, as examples, that help to identify what these other goods and arrangements might be. The approaches mentioned in this paper include human rights, national securities, human needs, authentic happiness, capabilities, sustainability and environmental ethics. The different approaches provide a way of evaluating the current situation and indicating a direction for change within the food systems that will address the problems. However, changing large systems such as those involved in food supply is difficult because inertias and vested interests make the current food supply systems resilient to change. The paper suggests that one of the first and ongoing tasks is to develop an understanding of the situation from a comprehensive social–ecological systems perspective. The paper also suggests that a practical leverage point for system change is restructuring the flow of information on the health, natural resources and biodiversity loss issues related to the food supply systems.

Demo abstract: wind measurements for water quality studies in urban reservoirs

Water quality monitoring and prediction are critical for ensuring the sustainability of water resources which are essential for social security, especially for countries with limited land like Singapore. For example, the Singapore government identified water as a new growth sector and committed in 2006 to invest S$ 330 million over the following five years for water research and development [1]. To investigate the water quality evolution numerically, some key water quality parameters at several discrete locations in the reservoir (e.g., dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll, and temperature) and some environmental parameters (e.g., the wind distribution above water surface, air temperature and precipitation) are used as inputs to a three-dimensional hydrodynamics-ecological model, Estuary Lake and Coastal Ocean Model - Computational Aquatic Ecosystem Dynamics Model (ELCOM-CAEDYM) [2]. Based on the calculation in the model, we can obtain the distribution of water quality in the whole reservoir. We can also study the effect of different environmental parameters on the water quality evolution, and finally predict the water quality of the reservoir with a time step of 30 seconds. In this demo, we introduce our data collection system which enables water quality studies with real-time sensor data.

Cyber security and protection of ICS systems: An australian example

Many aspects of our modern society now have either a direct or implicit dependence upon information technology. As such, a compromise of the availability or integrity in relation to these systems (which may encompass such diverse domains as banking, government, health care, and law enforcement) could have dramatic consequences from a societal perspective. These key systems are often referred to as critical infrastructure. Critical infrastructure can consist of corporate information systems or systems that control key industrial processes; these specific systems are referred to as ICS (Industry Control Systems) systems. ICS systems have devolved since the 1960s from standalone systems to networked architectures that communicate across large distances, utilise wireless network and can be controlled via the Internet. ICS systems form part of many countries’ key critical infrastructure, including Australia. They are used to remotely monitor and control the delivery of essential services and products, such as electricity, gas, water, waste treatment and transport systems. The need for security measures within these systems was not anticipated in the early development stages as they were designed to be closed systems and not open systems to be accessible via the Internet. We are also seeing these ICS and their supporting systems being integrated into organisational corporate systems.