Credit risk of interest rate swaps : a comparative study of CIR and Monte Carlo simulation approach

This paper compares the credit risk profile for two types of model, the Monte Carlo model used in the existing literature, and the Cox, Ingersoll and Ross (CIR) model. Each of the profiles has a concave or hump-backed shape, reflecting the amortisation and diffusion effects. However, the CIR model generates significantly different results. In addition, we consider the sensitivity of these models of credit risk to initial interest rates, volatility, maturity, kappa and delta. The results show that the sensitivities vary across the models, and we explore the meaning of that variation.

Testing the expectations hypothesis for interest rate term structure : some Australian evidence

Many test results are found inconsistent with the expectations hypothesis of the term structure. The aim of this paper is to re-examine the expectations hypothesis of the term structure using the Australian interest rate data from 1969(7) to 1995(7). We start with the cointegration test on R_t, r_t, and S_t followed by the Granger causality test from S_t to ∇ r_t. Finally we carry out the VAR model of cross-equation restrictions test. Our findings show that there is no conclusive rejection of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure.

Further evidence on the corporate use of derivatives in Australia : the case of foreign currency and interest rate instruments

In a recent issue of this journal Nguyen and Faff (2002) reported on an empirical exploration of the motives behind the aggregate use of financial derivatives by Australian companies. Employing the same sample of firms, the current paper extends their analysis to investigate similar issues, this time focussing separately on foreign currency and interest rate derivatives. At a specific level, our results reveal the following. A firm is more likely to use foreign currency derivatives if it is large and has more debt in its capital structure. Interest rate derivatives, on the other hand, are more likely to be used if a firm is larger, more levered, more liquid and pays higher dividends. These results are consistent with existing hedging theories. Market to book value (proxying growth opportunities), however, portrays an inconsistent relationship with the likelihood of interest rate derivative usage. When it comes to the extent of usage, a firm uses foreign currency derivatives more extensively if it is smaller, pays higher dividends and has more debt. Similarly, interest rate derivatives are used more extensively to address a high level of debt and a high dividend payout policy. At a general level, the current study confirms the core finding of Nguyen and Faff (2002), namely, that Australian companies use derivatives with a view to value maximisation.

Interest rate risk management using matching techniques

Explores the technique of matching asset and liability cash flows, including its applicability to the management of a pension fund. Explains a new procedure for interest rate risk management. Incorporates a study of the Metallgesellschaft case.

Low-frequency volatility of yen interest rate swap market in relation to macroeconomic risk

Using ‘low-frequency’ volatility extracted from aggregate volatility shocks in interest rate swap (hereafter, IRS) market, this paper investigates whether Japanese yen IRS volatility can be explained by macroeconomic risks. The analysis suggests that this low-frequency yen IRS volatility has strong and positive association with most of the macroeconomic risk proxies (e.g., volatility of consumer price index, industrial production volatility, foreign exchange volatility, slope of the term structure and money supply) with the exception of the unemployment rate, which is negatively related to IRS volatility. This finding is fairly consistent with the argument that the greater the macroeconomic risk the greater is the use of derivative instruments to hedge or speculate. The relationship between the macroeconomic risks and IRS volatility varies slightly across the different swap maturities but is robust to alternative volatility specifications. This linkage between swap market and macroeconomy has practical implications since market makers and hedgers use the swap rate as benchmark for pricing long-term interest rates, corporate bonds and various other securities.

Australian and US interest rate swap markets : comparison and linkages

We investigate and compare the determinants of US and Australian interest rate swap spreads and the linkages between these markets. The slope of the risk-free term structure is the most significant determinant and its importance is greater for longer terms to maturity. Interest rate levels and, in Australia, the default premium also have some impact. The influences of interest rate volatility, the liquidity premium and (in the USA) the default premium are small or negligible. We hypothesise, and our evidence confirms, that the US swap market significantly affects the Australian swap market but not vice-versa.

Can panel data really improve the predictability of the monetary exchange rate model?

A common explanation for the inability of the monetary model to beat the random walk in forecasting future exchange rates is that conventional time series tests may have low power, and that panel data should generate more powerful tests. This paper provides an extensive evaluation of this power argument to the use of panel data in the forecasting context. In particular, by using simulations it is shown that although pooling of the individual prediction tests can lead to substantial power gains, pooling only the parameters of the forecasting equation, as has been suggested in the previous literature, does not seem to generate more powerful tests. The simulation results are illustrated through an empirical application. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Panel cointegration and the monetary exchange rate model

This paper re-examines the validity of the monetary exchange rate model during the post-Bretton Woods era for 18 OECD countries. Our analysis simultaneously considers the presence of both cross-sectional dependence and multiple structural breaks, which have not received much attention in previous studies of the monetary model. The empirical results indicate that the monetary model emerges only when the presence of structural breaks and cross-country dependence has been taken into account. Evidence is also provided suggesting that the breaks in the monetary model can be derived from the underlying purchasing power parity relation. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A model of the Australia-US exchange rate

This paper develops a model of exchange rate determination within an error correction framework. The intention is to identify both long and short term determinants that can be used to forecast the AUD/US exchange rate. The paper identifies a set of significant variables associated with exchange rate movements over a twenty year period from 1984 to 2004. Specifically, the overnight interest rate differential, Australia's foreign trade-weighted exposure to commodity prices as well as exchange rate volatility are variables identified that are able explain movements in the AUDIUS dollar relationship. An error correction model is subsequently constructed that incorporates an equilibrium correction term, a short-term interest rate differential variable, a commodity price variable and a proxy for exchange rate volatility. The model is then used to forecast out of sample and is found to dominate a naIve random walk model based on three different metrics.

A-Reit price responses to cash rate changes

With the rapid increasing number and assets of A-REITs, there has been an urgent need to study the relationship between the changes of cash rates and the A-REITs returns. This study investigates whether there were relationships between Australian-Real Estate Investment Trusts stock returns and policy interest rate changes in the past decade by using event study with a multivariate regression model. The findings indicate that cash rate changes have no significantly positive or negative influence on the equity A-REIT stock prices. A series of successive cash rate changes do not take a continuous and dramatic effect on the equity A-REIT stock prices in each economic cycle. Moreover, the A-REITs with relatively smaller assets show more significant fluctuation to the changes of cash rates, and the A-REITs owning more than $ 10 billion in capital assets have relatively steady stock prices. Overall, the findings from this research lead to a call for comprehensive research into various areas in order to ascertain the determinants of A-REIT price changes.