TMI for urban resilience : measuring and mapping long-term climate change effects on soil moisture

The effect of climate change on the shallow expansive foundation conditions of resident dwellings is costing several hundred billion dollars worldwide. The design and costs of constructing or repairing residential footings is greatly influenced by the degree of ground movement, which is driven by the magnitude of change in soil moisture. The impacts of climate change on urban infrastructure are expected to include accelerated degradation of materials and foundations of buildings and facilities, increased ground movement, changes in ground water affecting the chemical structure of foundations, and fatigue of structures from extreme storm events. Previous research found that residential houses that were built less than five years ago have suffered major cracks and other damage caused by slab movement after record rainfall. The Thornthwaite Moisture Index (TMI) categorises climate on the basis of rainfall, temperature, potential evapotranspiration and the water holding capacity of the soil. Originally TMI was mainly used to map soil moisture conditions for agriculture but soon became a method to predict pavement and foundation changes. Few researchers have developed TMI maps for Australia, but generally, their accuracy is low or unknown, and their use is limited. The aims of this paper are: (1) To produce accurate maps of TMI for the state of Victoria for 100 years (1913 to 2012) in 20 year periods using long-term historical climatic data and advanced spatial statistics methods in GIS, and (2) Analyse the spatial and temporal changes of TMI in Victoria. Preliminary results suggest that a better understanding of climate change through long-term TMI mapping can assist urban planning and guide construction regulations towards the development of cities which are more resilient.

Active, healthy cities ? how does population physical activity vary between Australian cities?

Issue addressed: Despite recognition that urban infrastructure influences physical activity, there have been no comparisons between Australian city-level patterns of physical activity. This study ranked Australian cities in terms of adults? participation in leisure-time physical activity and examined city-level variations in activity trends between 2001 and 2009. Methods: Data on participation in leisure-time physical activity in adults (=15 years) between 2001 and 2009 were obtained from the Exercise Recreation and Sport Survey (ERASS), a computer-assisted telephone interview conducted to collect population-level sport participation information by the Australian Sports Commission. Data were analysed for respondents residing in the eight capital cities of Australia. The prevalence of meeting recommended ?health-enhancing physical activity? (HEPA) and levels of walking were calculated by age, gender and survey year. Multiple linear logistic regression analyses were used to compare cities. Results: Pooled data from 174,323 adults across years showed that Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Canberra residents were significantly more active than Sydney, Adelaide and Hobart residents in terms of HEPA. Hobart, Perth and Melbourne residents were significantly more likely to walk =5 sessions a week compared with their counterparts in other cities. HEPA and walking increased across most cities between 2001 and 2009. Conclusion: There are significant differences between Australian cities in physical activity and walking levels, over and above differences attributable to age, gender or educational levels. While this may be due to infrastructure differences, comparative information on indicators of the built environment and transport infrastructure are not available.

Engineering a distributed infrastructure for large-scale cost-effective content dissemination over urban vehicular networks

This paper proposes a practical and cost-effective approach to construct a fully distributed roadside communication infrastructure to facilitate the localized content dissemination to vehicles in the urban area. The proposed infrastructure is composed of distributed lightweight low-cost devices called roadside buffers (RSBs), where each RSB has the limited buffer storage and is able to transmit wirelessly the cached contents to fast-moving vehicles. To enable the distributed RSBs working toward the global optimal performance (e.g., minimal average file download delays), we propose a fully distributed algorithm to determine optimally the content replication strategy at RSBs. Specifically, we first develop a generic analytical model to evaluate the download delay of files, given the probability density of file distribution at RSBs. Then, we formulate the RSB content replication process as an optimization problem and devise a fully distributed content replication scheme accordingly to enable vehicles to recommend intelligently the desirable content files to RSBs. The proposed infrastructure is designed to optimize the global network utility, which accounts for the integrated download experience of users and the download demands of files. Using extensive simulations, we validate the effectiveness of the proposed infrastructure and show that the proposed distributed protocol can approach to the optimal performance and can significantly outperform the traditional heuristics.

Urban amphibian assemblages as metacommunities

1. Urban ecosystems are expanding throughout the world, and urban ecology is attracting increasing research interest. Some authors have questioned the value of existing ecological theories for understanding the processes and consequences of urbanization.
2. In order to assess the applicability of metacommunity theory to urban systems, I evaluated three assumptions that underlie the theory – the effect of patch area, the effect of patch isolation, and species–environment relations – using data on assemblages of pond-breeding amphibians in the Greater Melbourne area of Australia. I also assessed the relative impact of habitat fragmentation, habitat isolation, and changes to habitat quality on these assemblages.
3. Poisson regression modelling provided support for an important increase in species richness with patch area (pond size) and a decrease in species richness with increasing patch isolation, as measured by surrounding road cover. Holding all other variables constant, species richness was predicted to be 2·8–5·5 times higher at the largest pond than at the smallest, while the most isolated pond was predicted to have 12–19% of the species richness of the least isolated pond. Thus, the data were consistent with the first two assumptions of metacommunity theory evaluated.
4. The quality of habitat at a pond was also important, with a predicted 44–56% decrease in the number of species detected at ponds with a surrounding vertical wall compared with those with a gently sloping bank. This demonstrates that environmental differences between habitat patches were also influencing amphibian assemblages, providing support for the species-sorting and/or mass-effect perspectives of metacommunity theory.
5. Without management intervention, urbanization may lead to a reduction in the number of amphibian species persisting in urban ponds, particularly where increasing isolation of ponds by roads and associated infrastructure reduces the probability of re-colonization following local extinction.

International comparisons of rural-urban educational attainment : data and determinants

We study cross-country differences in rural and urban educational attainment by using a data set comprising 56 countries. We focus on the determinants of rural–urban educational inequality, which is measured by the ratio of rural to urban average years of schooling within each country. We find that riskier human capital investment, less credit availability, a colonial heritage, a legal system of French origin and landlockedness of nations are all associated with relatively lower rural educational levels and greater rural–urban educational inequality. Conversely, larger formal labor markets, better infrastructure and a legal system of British origin are associated with relatively higher rural educational levels and lower rural–urban educational inequality. We also identify an interaction effect between economic development level and some of these factors. In particular, we find that as development level increases, the negative (positive) relationship between French (British) legal systems and rural–urban educational inequality is reversed and becomes positive (negative).

Urban growth centres on the periphery : ad hoc policy vision and research neglect

The focus of this paper is peripheral urban growth centres on the edges of capital cities in Australia and the challenges they face as dormitory suburbs attempting to establish their own local business development. These challenges create dilemmas as infrastructure and climate change place pressure on long commuting times, while developing strong locally based communities is limited by many resource and demand constraints. The main research question is to examine how these challenges are being addressed in both public policy and academic research. Two propositions emerge from this analysis. The first is that, despite clear recognition of these challenges by public policy makers, there is a lack of coherent policy vision in addressing the dilemmas that are facing these urban growth centres. The second is that, despite all the concerns and lack of policy vision, there is a dearth of useful academic research in Australia to understand the dilemmas and provide guidance for appropriate policy options. In the context of ad hoc policy and academic neglect; Casey, Melton and Wyndham are the three major urban peripheral local government areas in Victoria that are profiled in this paper. They serve as examples in examining incoherence of policy and then analysing the elements that are needed for effective and strong peripheral growth centres that could propel these centres towards efficient and equitable liveable communities. A broad composite model of regional economic development is used to examine the attendant problems in these urban centres and the various viable policy options for addressing these problems. In the process, this paper aims to provide a basis for further rigorous academic investigation of peripheral urban growth centres in Australia and, arising from this, more coherent policies for the economic development of such centres.

Stakeholder analysis in urban development : the application of stakeholder circle methodology and social network analysis

The increasing research interest on stakeholder analysis in urban planning reflects a growing recognition that stakeholders can and should influence the decision-making. This paper concentrates on exploring the techniques for analysing stakeholders, especially the application of the Stakeholder Circle tool and Social Network Analysis. An urban renewal project and an infrastructure project in Australia are presented as case studies to verify the use of these two techniques. The stakeholders are identified and prioritized from two different points of view, namely, the attribute evaluations in the Stakeholder Circle tool, and the relationship network analysis. The paper ends with a discussion on the strengths and limitations of the techniques for stakeholder analysis. No method for stakeholder identification and prioritization is perfect. The selection of the approaches is an art with extensive considerations of ‘when, what, and how’ to choose methods to achieve the project objectives. Each method has its own strengths and limitations. Combining several methods when necessary is the best way to analyse stakeholders.

Targeting and measuring housing problems in developing countries through urban texture analysis

Latin-american countries passed from predominantely rural to predominantely urban within few decades. The level of urbanisation in Brazil progressed from 36% in 1950, 50% in 1970, and scalating to 85% in 2005. This rapid transformation resulted in many social problems, as cities were not able to provide appropriate housing and infrastructure for the growing population. As a response, the Brazilian Ministry for Cities, in 2005, created the National System for Social Housing, with the goal to establish guidelines in the Federal level, and build capacity and fund social housing projects in the State and Local levels. This paper presents a research developed in Gramado city, Brazil, as part of the Local Social Housing Plan process, with the goal to produce innovative tools to help social housing planning and management. It proposes and test a methodology to locate and characterise/rank housing defficiencies across the city combining GIS and fractal geometry analysis. Fractal measurements, such as fractal dimension and lacunarity, are able to differentiate urban morphology, and integrated to infrastructure and socio-economical spatial indicators, they can be used to estimate housing problems and help to target, classify and schedule actions to improve housing in cities and regions. Gramado city was divided in a grid with 1,000 cells. For each cell, the following indicators were measured: average income of households, % of roads length which are paved (as a proxy for availability of infrastructures as water and sewage), fractal dimension and lacunarity of the dwellings spatial distribution. A statistical model combining those measurements was produced using a sample of 10% of the cells divided in five housing standards (from high income/low density dwellings to slum's dwellings). The estimation of the location and level of social housing deficiencies in the whole region using the model, compared to the real situation, achived high correlations. Simple and based on easily accessible and inexpensive data, the method also helped to overcome limitations of lack of information and fragmented knowledge of the area related to housing conditions by local professionals.

Walking for recreation and perceptions of the neighbourhood environment in older chinese urban dwellers

Engagement in walking for recreation can contribute to healthy aging. Although there is growing evidence that the neighborhood environment can influence walking for recreation, the amount of such evidence in relation to older adults is scarce and limited to Western low-density urban locations. Asian urban environments are typified by distinctive environmental and cultural characteristics that may yield different patterns to those observed in Western countries. Therefore, the main aim of this study was to examine associations of perceived environmental attributes with overall and within-neighborhood walking for recreation in Chinese elders (65+ years) residing in Hong Kong, an ultradense Asian metropolis. A sample of 484 elders was recruited from 32 neighborhoods stratified by socio-economic status and walkability (dwelling and intersection densities). Validated questionnaires measuring perceived neighborhood environment and weekly minutes of overall and within-neighborhood walking for recreation were interviewer administered. Results showed that the level of recreational walking was twice to four times higher than that reported in Western adults and elders. While overall walking for recreation showed a general lack of associations with perceived environmental attributes, within-neighborhood recreational walking was positively related with proximity of recreational facilities, infrastructure for walking, indoor places for walking, and presence of bridge/overpasses connecting to services. Age and educational attainment moderated the associations with several perceived environmental attributes with older and less-educated participants showing stronger associations. Traditional cultural views on the benefits of physical activity and the high accessibility of facilities and pedestrian infrastructure of Hong Kong may explain the high levels of walking. Although specific neighborhood attributes, or their perception, may influence recreational walking within the neighborhood, the compactness and public transport affordability of ultradense metropolises such as Hong Kong may make it easy for elders to compensate for the lack of favorable neighborhood attributes by walking outside the neighborhood.

Improving the health of Australians by applying evidence from behavioural epidemiology to urban design projects

Rapid urban population growth in Australia requires an expansion of supporting hard and soft infrastructure. In the State of Victoria, directing this growth are a number of urban design and planning mechanisms that provide a ‘blueprint for development and investment’. Although topics revolving around physical health are present in these and other planning related documents, largely absent from this literature are ‘tools’ to assist decision makers in determining whether or not an urban setting supports physical health and provides opportunities for physical activity. Insufficient physical activity is a risk factor contributing to Australia’s growing and significant burden of chronic disease including cardiovascular disease, Type 2 diabetes and overweight/obesity. The potential of the built environment to influence population-level physical activity is well recognised. A key element in Victoria’s planning framework that can help address these health concerns is the provision and redevelopment of open space(s) in urban areas that provide opportunities for people of all ages and abilities to engage in physical activity. However, in the realisation of these settings, evidence informing the design of urban open space(s) that promote opportunities for physical activity is needed to produce evidence based decision making. Using the three geo-spatial visioning layers embedded in Victoria’s planning framework (i.e. Growth Area Framework Plans, Precinct Structure Plans and Planning Permits) as positioning instruments, this paper merges the fields of behavioural epidemiology and urban design to: i) provide a brief overview of current research relating to design of open space to optimise usage and physical activity, ii) consider what type of evidence relating to features of open space is needed to help inform decision makers, iii) consider the methods and procedures practitioners may use to incorporate evidence in to their planning, and iv) discuss the geo-spatial development level that the respective data can best assist decision making to achieve positive gains in physical health.