Dispersion of information or market behaviour : general public trading in S & P 500 index futures

This paper considers 15 minute records of trading volume and traded prices coinciding with the reporting intervals required by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Records are extracted from trade records for two way trade between market makers (CTI1) and the general public (CTI4) from January 1994 to June 2004. Futures price records are matched with S&P500 cash index price records. Simultaneous volatility models are specified and estimated to test trading volume to futures volatility lead/lag effects and also futures volatility to cash index volatility lead/lag effects. There is evidence that existing theoretical models of the general public trading behaviour do not explain such behaviour in these very actively traded markets. These effects can depend more on market conditions than what is suggested in theoretical models.

Market makers v's the general public : a first look at S & P500 futures trade data

This paper considers 15 minute records of trading volume and traded prices coinciding with the reporting intervals required by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Records are extracted from trade records for market trade and also two way trade between market makers (CT1) and the general public (CT4) from January 1994 to June 2004. Futures price records are matched with S&P500 cash index price records. Simultaneous volatility models are specified and estimated to test trading volume to futures volatility lead/lag effects and also futures volatility to cash index volatility lead/lag effects. As we disaggregate from the market records to CT1 and CT4 records and further into year to year samples volume to futures volatility leading effects and also futures volatility to cash volatility leading effects dominate. The results raise important issues for risk management and dynamic hedging models employing intra-day trader data. A number of important issues for further analysis are also raised in this paper.

Economic linkages across commodity futures : hedging and trading implications

We investigate cross-market trading dynamics in futures contracts written on seemingly unrelated commodities that are consumed by a common industry. On the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, we find such evidence in natural rubber (NR), palladium (PA) and gasoline (GA) futures markets. The automobile industry is responsible for more than 50% of global demand for each of these commodities. VAR estimation reveals short-run cross-market interaction between NR and GA, and from NR to PA. Cross-market influence exerted by PA is felt in longer dynamics, with PA volatility (volume) affecting NR (GA) volume (volatility). Our findings are robust to lag-specification, volatility measure, and consistent with full BEKK-GARCH estimation results. Further analysis, which benchmarks against silver futures market, TOCOM index and TOPIX transportation index, confirms that our results are driven by a common industry exposure, and not a commodity market factor. A simple trading rule that incorporates short-run GA and long-run PA dynamics to predict NR return yields positive economic profit. Our study offers new insights into how commodity and equity markets relate at an industry level, and implications for multi-commodity hedging.

Digital TV in Australia and the USA: a cross-impact analysis of the adoption and diffusion of digital TV in Australia and the United States

The paper examines the adoption and diffusion of Digital Television (DTV) in Australia and the United States, identifying historical, technical, regulatory, marketing, and other commonalities and differences that appear to be most significant to its adoption, as both countries have experienced a 'sluggish' diffusion and adoption of DTV so far. Using library research and borrowing the cross-impact matrix method from futures research, the authors develop J J events related to the various influences and groups of stakeholders that had shaped the policy making and adoption of DTV. We then carry out a comparative analysis between the two countries to make evident their impacts, strengths, and directions of influence. The authors suggest that the implementation of DTV in these two developed countries appears to be nearly identical. Even though Australian and US broadcasting models are fundamentally different, the diffusion process for DTV is primarily affected by the nature of digital technology and globalisation, two trends that may be diminishing the import of the nation-state in the technology adoption process. The paper concludes that these broader economic and technical events may have greater import to DTV's successful diffusion than do traditional, cultural, and nationalistic factors suggested in earlier comparative broadcast studies.

Comparing different economic linkages among commodity futures

Gasoline (GA) and kerosene (KO) are extracted from crude oil (CO), such that the three fuel commodities share a chemical link. On the other hand, GA also shares an industrial link with natural rubber (NR) and palladium (PA) as complementary commodities that are heavily consumed by the automobile industry. We contrast the information content embedded in the two economic linkages. Focusing on TOCOM futures contracts written on the five commodities and centering on GA, we confirm that incremental information provided by either CO, KO or NR, PA over a buy-and-hold strategy and a naive forecast, are both statistically and economically significant. While the chemical link forecast is more profitable, a double-link forecast generated from a VECM with two cointegrating vectors (KO-GA and GANR prices) outperforms both single-link forecasts based on risk-adjusted profit net of transaction costs. Further comparisons against the profitability of commodity-based momentum strategies documented in Erb and Harvey (2006) and Miffre and Rallis (2007) show that the double-link forecast holds its own against the most profitable of the 75 momentum strategies considered. This strongly suggests that not only are there incremental profits to be gained from harnessing and combining economic links among commodity futures, the resultant incremental profits are economically significant against other proven commodity-based trading strategies in the existing literature.

An investigation into the potential adoption of international financial reporting standards in the United States: implications and implementation

International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) have been adopted by most of the G20 countries. Given the broad worldwide acceptance of IFRS and significance of attaining comparability to facilitate free flow of capital, the US standard setter, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) made a commitment to jointly work with the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) to explore the possibilities of convergence of US Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) with IFRS. In 2007, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) eliminated the requirement that foreign companies listed on the US stock exchanges reconcile their IFRS-based financial statements with the US GAAP. In the same year the US SEC issued a concept release to the public requesting comments on a proposal to allow US issuers to prepare financial statements in accordance with IFRS. Following these initiatives by the FASB and SEC, the aim of the present study is to investigate the implications of a potential full adoption of IFRS by the US. The present study details the challenges and benefits of adoption and outlines the steps required for a successful outcome of this process.

Youth alcohol and other drug use in the United States and Australia: a cross-national comparison of three state-wide samples

Although youth drug and alcohol harm minimization policies in Australia are often contrasted with the abstinence and zero tolerance policies adopted in the United States, there has been little research directly comparing youth substance use behaviour in the two countries. Three state representative samples in Victoria, Australia (n = 7898) and in the US states of Oregon (n = 15 224) and Maine (n = 16 245) completed a common cross-sectional student survey. Rates of alcohol use (lifetime alcohol use, recent use in the past 30 days), alcohol use exceeding recommended consumption limits (binge drinking: five or more drinks in a session), other licit drug use (tobacco use), and norm-violating substance use (substance use at school, use in the past 30 days of marijuana or other illicit drug use) were compared for males and females at ages 12-17. Rates were lower (odds ratios 0.5-0.8) for youth in Maine and Oregon compared to Victoria for lifetime and recent alcohol use, binge drinking and daily cigarette smoking. However, rates of recent marijuana use and recent use of other illicit drugs were higher in Maine and Oregon, as were reports of being drunk or high at school. In contradiction of harm minimization objectives, Victoria, relative to the US states of Oregon and Maine, demonstrated higher rates of alcohol use exceeding recommended consumption limits and daily tobacco use. However, findings suggested that aspects of norm-violating substance use (substance use at school, marijuana use and other illicit drug use) were higher in the US states compared to Victoria.

Evaluating a measure of content quality for accounting narratives (with an empirical application to narratives from Australia, Hong Kong, and the United States)

This paper evaluates a texture-based approach developed by Sydserff and Weetman (1999), to examine corporate annual report narratives. This is achieved by using the texture index to evaluate information content (which includes readability) in accounting narratives. Specifically, we examine the letter to shareholders of reports from Australia, Hong Kong and the United States.

We suggest a texture-based evaluation provides a robust measure of narrative quality due to the incorporation of readability and content analysis. The ability to measure content quality assists in promoting accountability, with the aim of improving usefulness of corporate
information and disclosures, and greater investor confidence in capital markets.

This paper also investigates these exploratory results to consider variations in quality between different countries. Considerable differences were found between the countries with Hong Kong reports generally superior. These tentative findings provide a small contribution to the comparative annual report literature and the emerging area of narrative evaluation.

High stakes principalship-sleepless nights, heart attacks and sudden death accountabilities: reading media representations of the United States principal shortage

The possible shortage of applicants for principal positions is news in both Australia and abroad. We subject a corpus of predominantly United states (US) news articles to deconstructive narrative analysis and find that the dominant media representation of principals' work is one of long hours Iow salary high stress and sudden death from high stakes accountabilities. However, reported US policy interventions focus predominantly on professional development for aspirants. We note that this will be insufficient to reverse the lack of applications and suggest that the dominant media picture of completely unattractive principals work, meant to leverage a policy solution, will perhaps paradoxically perpetuate the problem. The dominant media picture is also curiously at odds with research that reports high job satisfaction among principals. We suggest that there is a binary of victim and saviour principal in both media and policy which prevents some strategic re-thinking about how the principalship might be different.

A new era in United States cooperation in international insolvency adminstrations?

Cross-border insolvency laws are increasingly being influenced by the UNCITRAL Model Law on Cross-border Insolvency provisions. The United States has recently enacted domestic legislation based on these provisions by way of Ch 15 of the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act 2005, which inserted Ch 15 into USC, Title 11. This article briefly explains the provisions of this United States legislation and draws attention to the important case law commenting and explaining same. It further attempts to alert local practitioners to the changes, benefits and detriments they may encounter when acting pursuant to this legislation.

Prevalence of substance use and delinquent behavior in adolescents from Victoria, Australia and Washington State, United States

This article compares prevalence estimates of substance use and  delinquent behavior in Washington State, United States and Victoria, Australia, two states chosen for their different policy environments around problem behavior. Few comparisons of international differences on rates of multiple problem behavior exist, and most are based on methods that are not matched, raising the question of whether findings are based on  methodological differences rather than actual rate differences. The  International Youth Development Study used standardized methods to recruit and administer an adaptation of the Communities That Care Youth Survey to representative state samples of fifth-, seventh-, and ninth-grade students in each state. Rates of delinquent behavior were generally comparable.  However, striking differences in substance use were noted, with Victoria students reporting higher rates of alcohol use, alcohol misuse, smoking, and inhalant use, whereas Washington State students reported higher rates of marijuana use. Implications for conducting international comparisons are discussed.