Least squares learning and the US Treasury bill rate

Understanding how agents formulate their expectations about Fed behavior is important for market participants because they can potentially use this information to make more accurate estimates of stock and bond prices. Although it is commonly assumed that agents learn over time, there is scant empirical evidence in support of this assumption. Thus, in this paper we test if the forecast of the three month T-bill rate in the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) is consistent with least squares learning when there are discrete shifts in monetary policy. We first derive the mean, variance and autocovariances of the forecast errors from a recursive least squares learning algorithm when there are breaks in the structure of the model. We then apply the Bai and Perron (1998) test for structural change to a forecasting model for the three month T-bill rate in order to identify changes in monetary policy. Having identified the policy regimes, we then estimate the implied biases in the interest rate forecasts within each regime. We find that when the forecast errors from the SPF are corrected for the biases due to shifts in policy, the forecasts are consistent with least squares learning. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.

Corrigendum to “Least squares learning and the US treasury bill rate” [Econ. Syst. 38 (2014) 194–204]

Understanding how agents formulate their expectations about Fed behavior is important for market participants because they can potentially use this information to make more accurate estimates of stock and bond prices. Although it is commonly assumed that agents learn over time, there is scant empirical evidence in support of this assumption. Thus, in this paper we test if the forecast of the three month T-bill rate in the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) is consistent with least squares learning when there are discrete shifts in monetary policy. We first derive the mean, variance and autocovariances of the forecast errors from a recursive least squares learning algorithm when there are breaks in the structure of the model. We then apply the Bai and Perron (1998) test for structural change to a forecasting model for the three month T-bill rate in order to identify changes in monetary policy. Having identified the policy regimes, we then estimate the implied biases in the interest rate forecasts within each regime. We find that when the forecast errors from the SPF are corrected for the biases due to shifts in policy, the forecasts are consistent with least squares learning.

The underpricing of US REIT IPOs : 1996–2010

This study examines the underpricing cost of 123 US REIT IPOs over the period 1996 until June 2010, including the period of the global financial crisis. The study uses OLS multivariate regression to determine some potential factors behind underpricing. The underpricing cost of raising REIT external equity averaged 3.18% using an equal weighting for each of the 123 REIT IPOs. The study finds offer size is positively related to underpricing. A value weighted approach finds that underpricing averages 4.67% and suggests larger offer size is an important determinant for leaving more money on the table. Higher reputation underwriters, the industry differentiated auditor and post offer ownership structure negatively influence underpricing. The study documents declining underpricing over time with the period of 2007–2010 experiencing negative underpricing (overpricing) during the global financial crisis (GFC). Offers during the hot periods of 1997 and 2004 and the office/industrial property type were more highly underpriced. The 10-year treasury interest rate is identified as another significant positive determinant of underpricing.

Monetary models of exchange rates and the random walk

Three alternative monetary models of exchange rate are tested using data on the Italian lira - US doIIar exchange rate. II is shown that up to the early 1990s these economic models perform better than the random walk model in out-of-sample forecasts.

A model of the Australia-US exchange rate

This paper develops a model of exchange rate determination within an error correction framework. The intention is to identify both long and short term determinants that can be used to forecast the AUD/US exchange rate. The paper identifies a set of significant variables associated with exchange rate movements over a twenty year period from 1984 to 2004. Specifically, the overnight interest rate differential, Australia's foreign trade-weighted exposure to commodity prices as well as exchange rate volatility are variables identified that are able explain movements in the AUDIUS dollar relationship. An error correction model is subsequently constructed that incorporates an equilibrium correction term, a short-term interest rate differential variable, a commodity price variable and a proxy for exchange rate volatility. The model is then used to forecast out of sample and is found to dominate a naIve random walk model based on three different metrics.

Modelling Fiji-US exchange rate volatility

In this article, we examine the Fiji-US exchange rate volatility using daily data for the period 2000 to 2006. Our modelling framework is based on the EGARCH model. We find robust evidence of conditional shocks having a positive effect on exchange rate volatility, shocks having asymmetric effects on exchange rate volatility and shocks having a transitory effect on exchange rate volatility.

Video evidence : what gestures tell us about students' understanding of rate of change

This paper reports on insights into students’ understanding of the concept of rate of change, provided by examining the gestures made, by 25 Year 10 students, in videorecorded interviews. Detailed analysis, of both the sound and images, illuminates the meaning of rate-related gestures. Findings indicate that students often use the symbols and metaphors of gesture to complement, supplement, or even contradict verbal descriptions. Many students demonstrated, by the combination of their words and gestures, a sound qualitative understanding of constant rate, with a few attempting to quantify rate. The interpretation of gestures may provide teachers with a better understanding of the progress in their students’ thinking.

A factor-augmented VAR approach : the effect of a rise in the US personal income tax rate on the US and Canada

In this paper a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model is estimated to characterize the dynamic effects of shocks in the personal income tax rate in the United States on United States and Canadian economies. The representation and the estimate of the FAVAR model is based on Stock and Watson (2005) and the shocks are recovered applying the identification scheme proposed by Bernanke et al. (2005); this method allows impulse response functions to be generated for all the variables in the dataset and provides a description of the domestic and international transmission mechanisms of United States movements in the personal income tax rate. A distinguishing feature of our model is the disaggregation of traded goods sector where imports and exports are disaggregated into 12 and 13 industries, respectively. This provides extra information on the domestic and international transmission mechanism across the two countries. The results show that the FAVAR approach generates a reasonable characterisation of the effects of United States movements in the US personal income tax rate on the United States economy and its transmission to the Canadian economy.

Australian and US interest rate swap markets : comparison and linkages

We investigate and compare the determinants of US and Australian interest rate swap spreads and the linkages between these markets. The slope of the risk-free term structure is the most significant determinant and its importance is greater for longer terms to maturity. Interest rate levels and, in Australia, the default premium also have some impact. The influences of interest rate volatility, the liquidity premium and (in the USA) the default premium are small or negligible. We hypothesise, and our evidence confirms, that the US swap market significantly affects the Australian swap market but not vice-versa.

Sexing little penguins eudyptula minor using bill measurements

In Little Penguins Eudyptula minor there are no reliable plumage or body size differences that can be used visually to distinguish the sex of individuals. However, sexual dimorphism of morphometric measures has been noted, with males always being a little larger than females. In this study, differences between E. minor sexes at eight colonies in south-eastern Australia were determined statistically via discriminant function analysis (DFA) and through the utilization of DNA-based techniques developed for non-ratite birds. The DFA correctly determined gender in 91.1% of cases and molecular methods were 100% accurate. Our DFA success rate of classification is similar to that previously published for Little Penguins in Victoria. In this study statistically significant differences in mean bill depths and lengths were found between Little Penguin colonies at St Kilda, Phillip Island and Gabo Island, compared to colonies at Kangaroo Island, Granite Island, Middle Island and London Bridge. As birds in eastern populations (St Kilda, Phillip Island, Gabo Island) exhibit statistically significantly smaller beaks (bill depth and bill length), separate discriminant functions were investigated for each phenotypically distinct geo-spatial cohort. Interestingly, cluster analysis for bill length identified three groups: western (Kangaroo Island and Granite Island), eastern (St Kilda, Phillip Island and Middle Island) and the London Bridge Little Penguin colony, which constituted a separate group. We conclude that while there is a slight increase in DF power for colonies west of Cape Otway and for some specific colonies, colony-specific DFA is not required to identify the sex of Little Penguins in south-eastern Australia.

Revisiting the US money demand function: an application of the Lagrange multiplier structural break unit root test and the bounds test for a long-run relationship

In this article, we examine the issue of a levels relationship and stability of the US money demand function over the period 1959:01 to 2004:02. We use the Lagrange multiplier structural break unit root test and the bounds testing approach to a long-run relationship in levels of the variables, namely real money demand, nominal interest rate and real income. We find greater evidence for a long-run relationship in levels and stability of the US money demand function when we use M2 as a proxy for money demand. However, we find little evidence for a long-run relationship between M1 and M2 with their determinants for the recent period, spanning the last decade or so.

Have US external imbalances been determined at home or abroad?

This paper examines the relationship between the United States saving–investment imbalance and long-term real interest rates using a new international borrowing and lending framework. It first establishes how domestic or international factors may primarily influence the US external imbalance and interest rates over any given time before showing that the current account and real long term interest rate share a positive and statistically significant co-integrating relationship based on data from the mid-1980's. The results suggest that while in the pre-Asian financial crisis period (1985:01–1996:04) US external deficits and long term interest rates were mainly determined by domestic factors, external factors beyond the control of domestic policymakers dominated from 1997:01–2004:04.

Understanding the oil price-exchange rate nexus for the Fiji Islands

In this paper, we examine the relationship between oil price and the Fiji–US exchange rate using daily data for the period 2000–2006. We use the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and exponential GARCH (EGARCH) models to estimate the impact of oil price on the nominal exchange rate. We find that a rise in oil prices leads to an appreciation of the Fijian dollar vis-à-vis the US dollar.

Estimating exchange rate responsiveness to shocks

The goal of this paper is to examine the importance of permanent and transitory shocks using a more efficient trend-cycle decomposition of the real exchange rate series. Our main contribution is that in measuring the impact of shocks, we not only impose common trend restrictions but also common cycle restrictions. We later confirm, through a post sample forecasting exercise, the efficiency gains from imposing common cycle restrictions. Our results indicate that permanent shocks are responsible for the bulk of the real exchange rate variations for Japan, Italy, Germany, France, and the UK vis-à-vis the US dollar over short horizons. For Canada, however, transitory shocks are dominant over the short horizon. In sum, while for Japan, France, and Italy, around 15% of the variation in real exchange rate is due to transitory shocks, for Canada, Germany and the UK, over 25% of the variations over the short horizon are due to transitory shocks. Thus, we claim that the role of transitory shocks should not be ignored.