Speculative fictions for understanding global change environments: two thought experiments

The purpose of a thought experiment, as the term was used by quantum and relativity physicists in the early part of the twentieth century, was not prediction (as is the goal of classical experimental science), but more defensible representations of present ‘realities’. Speculative fictions, from Mary Shelley's Frankenstein to the Star Wars cinema saga, can be read as sociotechnical thought experiments that produce alternative representations of present circumstances and uncertainties, and anticipate and critique possible futures. In this essay I demonstrate how two examples of popular speculative fictions, Frank Herbert's Dune (1965) and Ursula Le Guin's The Telling (2000), function as thought experiments that problematise global transitions in their respective eras. I argue that critical readings of such stories can help us to anticipate, critique, and respond constructively to social and cultural changes and change environments within nation-states that constitute, and are constituted by, global change processes and their effects.

Distribution of carbon nanotubes in fresh ordinary Portland cement pastes: understanding from a two-phase perspective

Significant research advances have been made in the field of carbon nanotube (CNT) reinforced ordinary Portland cement (OPC) paste composites in recent years. However, the distribution of CNTs in fresh OPC paste is yet to be fully researched and quantified, thereby creating a technical barrier to CNT utilization in concrete construction. In this study, fresh OPC paste was treated as a two-phase material containing solid particles (cement grains) and liquid solutions (pore solutions). A centrifugation-based technique was proposed to separate these two phases and the presence of CNTs in each phase was quantified. UV-Vis spectrometry showed that the degree of dispersion can achieve above 90 wt% using polycarboxylate superplasticizer. The results suggested an upper limit of 0.26 wt% for CNT addition into water before mixing with OPC, and the dispersion was found to be stable for at least 4 hours. Based on scanning electron imaging, the adsorption phenomenon of CNTs on OPC grains with size less than 4 μm was discovered. Energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy indicated these adsorptive particles have lower Ca to Si ratio. It was observed that about 0.5 mg of CNTs per gram of OPC grains was adsorbed in solid OPC grains in typical fresh OPC pastes. On the basis of these results, a conceptual model was proposed for the distribution of CNTs in fresh OPC paste where about 33 wt% of the CNTs stay in pore solution and 65 wt% of CNTs are adsorbed on OPC grains.

Effects of approach velocity and foot-target characteristics on the visual regulation of step length

Two questions emerge from the literature concerning the perceptual-motor processes underlying the visual regulation of step length. The first concerns the effects of velocity on the onset of visual control (VCO), when visual regulation of step length begins during goal-directed locomotion. The second concerns the effects of different obstacles such as a target or raised surface on step length regulation. In two separate experiments, participants (Experiment 1 & 2: n=12, 6 female, 6 male) walked, jogged, or sprinted towards an obstacle along a 10 m walkway, consisting of two marker-strips with alternating black and white 0.50 m markings. Each experiment consisted of three targeting or obstacle tasks with the requirement to both negotiate and continue moving (run-through) through the target. Five trials were conducted for each task and approach speed, with trials block randomised between the six participants of each gender. One 50 Hz video camera panned and filmed each trial from an elevated position, adjacent to the walkway. Video footage was digitized to deduce the gait characteristics. Results for the targeting tasks indicate a linear relationship between approach velocity and accuracy of final foot placement (r=0.89). When foot placement was highly constrained by the obstacle step length shortened during the entire approach. VCO was found to occur at an earlier tau-margin for lower approach velocities for both experiments, indicating that the optical variable ‘tau' is affected by approach velocity. A three-phase kinematic profile was found for all tasks, except for the take-off board condition when sprinting. Further research is needed to determine whether this velocity affect on VCO is due to ‘whole-body' approach velocity or whether it is a function of the differences between gait modes.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of a two-stage screening intervention for hepatocellular carcinoma in Taiwan

Background/Purpose

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been the leading cause of cancer death in Taiwan since the 1980s. A two-stage screening intervention was introduced in 1996 and has been implemented in a limited number of hospitals. The present study assessed the costs and health outcomes associated with the introduction of screening intervention, from the perspective of the Taiwanese government. The cost-effectiveness analysis aimed to assist informed decision making by the health authority in Taiwan.
Methods

A two-phase economic model, 1-year decision analysis and a 60-year Markov simulation, was developed to conceptualize the screening intervention within current practice, and was compared with opportunistic screening alone. Incremental analyses were conducted to compare the incremental costs and outcomes associated with the introduction of the intervention. Sensitivity analyses were performed to investigate the uncertainties that surrounded the model.
Results

The Markov model simulation demonstrated an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of NT$498,000 (US$15,600) per life-year saved, with a 5% discount rate. An ICER of NT$402,000 (US$12,600) per quality-adjusted life-year was achieved by applying utility weights. Sensitivity analysis showed that excess mortality reduction of HCC by screening and HCC incidence rates were the most influential factors on the ICERs. Scenario analysis also indicated that expansion of the HCC screening intervention by focusing on regular monitoring of the high-risk individuals could achieve a more favorable result.
Conclusion

Screening the population of high-risk individuals for HCC with the two-stage screening intervention in Taiwan is considered potentially cost-effective compared with opportunistic screening in the target population of an HCC endemic area.

Multi-scale modelling of DP590 steel

Dual Phase (DP) steel one of the Advanced High Strength Steels (AHSS) has a two phase microstructure where soft and hard phase acts together to offer a high strength composite effect. The high strength, however, must be balanced with ductility so that complex parts and designs can be manufactured from AHSS sheets. However, during forming certain grades of DP steel a sudden crack can occur without any intimation of necking. Thus, due to this abnormal forming behaviour, is difficult to accurately predict because most classical modelling approaches are not designed for such micro-structurally heterogeneous materials. These modelling approaches are generally based on an average representation of the material behaviour in a continuum mechanics formulation. This works for materials that are homogenous, or at least could be assumed to be homogenous at scales lower than the naked eye can see. However, for a material like AHSS, the microstructure plays a significant role in dictating the mechanical behaviour at the macro-scale. This paper studies the multi-scale modelling ofDP590 steel. It is found that the sufficient accuracy can be achieved from multi-scale modelling while comparing with the experiments.

Fracture of DP590 steel : a multi-scale modeling approach

Advanced high strength steel sheets are one of the higher strength advance material developed by the steel industry for automotive bodies. One of the categories of this advanced high strength steel is Dual Phase (DP) steel. This steel consists of a two phase microstructure where soft and hard phase acts together to offer a high strength composite effect. The combination of high strength and ductility exhibited by these sheets allows the design and manufacture of complex parts. However, during forming certain grades of DP steel sudden cracking can occur without any intimation of necking. This abnormal forming behavior is difficult to accurately predict because most classical modelling approaches are not designed for such micro-structurally heterogeneous materials. These modelling approaches are generally based on an average representation of the material behaviour in a continuum mechanics formulation. This works for materials that are homogenous, or at least could be assumed to be homogenous at scales lower than the naked eye can see. However, for a material like advanced high strength steel, the microstructure plays a significant role in dictating the mechanical behavior at the macro-scale. This paper studies the forming and fracture behavior through multi-scale modeling of DPO590 steel. It is found that the sufficient accuracy can be achieved from multi-scale modeling when comparing with experiments.

Does dynamic vulcanization induce phase separation?

Immiscible and miscible blends of poly(vinylidene fluoride) (PVDF) and acrylic rubber (ACM) were subjected to dynamic vulcanization to investigate the effect of crosslinking on phase separation. As a result of different processability, mixing torque behavior of miscible and immiscible blends was significantly different from one another. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) was used to investigate the morphology of the system. After dynamic vulcanization, submicron ACM droplets were observed in the samples near the binodal curve of the system under mixing conditions. Small angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) analysis were used to investigate the effect of dynamic vulcanization on the lamellar structure of the system. It was shown that for samples near the boundary of phase separation, increasing the crosslink density led to a decrease in the lamellar long period (L) as a sign of increment of crosslink density induced phase decomposition. Effects of shear rate on the final morphology of the system were investigated by changing the mixing temperature and by comparing the results of dynamic vulcanization at one phase and two phase regions.

Phase inversion of ionomer-stabilized emulsions to form high internal phase emulsions (HIPEs)

Herein, we report the phase inversion of ionomer-stabilized emulsions to form high internal phase emulsions (HIPEs) induced by salt concentration and pH changes. The ionomers are sulfonated polystyrenes (SPSs) with different sulfonation degrees. The emulsion types were determined by conductivity measurements, confocal microscopy and optical microscopy, and the formation of HIPE organogels was verified by the tube-inversion method and rheological measurements. SPSs with high sulfonation degrees (water-soluble) and low sulfonation degrees (water-insoluble) can stabilize oil-in-water emulsions; these emulsions were transformed into water-in-oil HIPEs by varying salt concentrations and/or changing the pH. SPS, with a sulfonation degree of 11.6%, is the most efficient, and as low as 0.2 (w/v)% of the organic phase is enough to stabilize the HIPEs. Phase inversion of the oil-in-water emulsions occurred to form water-in-oil HIPEs by increasing the salt concentration in the aqueous phase. Two phase inversion points from oil-in-water emulsions to water-in-oil HIPEs were observed at pH 1 and 13. Moreover, synergetic effects between the salt concentration and pH changes occurred upon the inversion of the emulsion type. The organic phase can be a variety of organic solvents, including toluene, xylene, chloroform, dichloroethane, dichloromethane and anisole, as well as monomers such as styrene, butyl acrylate, methyl methacrylate and ethylene glycol dimethacrylate. Poly(HIPEs) were successfully prepared by the polymerization of monomers as the continuous phase in the ionomer-stabilized HIPEs.

DDR: an index method for large time-series datasets

The tree index structure is a traditional method for searching similar data in large datasets. It is based on the presupposition that most sub-trees are pruned in the searching process. As a result, the number of page accesses is reduced. However, time-series datasets generally have a very high dimensionality. Because of the so-called dimensionality curse, the pruning effectiveness is reduced in high dimensionality. Consequently, the tree index structure is not a suitable method for time-series datasets. In this paper, we propose a two-phase (filtering and refinement) method for searching time-series datasets. In the filtering step, a quantizing time-series is used to construct a compact file which is scanned for filtering out irrelevant. A small set of candidates is translated to the second step for refinement. In this step, we introduce an effective index compression method named grid-based datawise dimensionality reduction (DRR) which attempts to preserve the characteristics of the time-series. An experimental comparison with existing techniques demonstrates the utility of our approach.

Making decisions: nursing practices in critical care

This article reports the types and complexity level of decisions made in everyday clinical practice by critical care nurses. It also reports factors that influence the complexity of those decisions. A combination of methods were chosen for the two phase study. In the first phase, 12 qualified critical care nurses documented decisions (over a 2 hour period) on a clinical decision recording form designed by the researcher. In the second phase, participants attended a semi-structured focus group.

From the analysis, five types of decisions were identified; assessment, intervention, organisation, communication and education. In addition to these documented decisions, three factors that influenced decision complexity were identified from a thematic analysis of the transcribed interviews; communication, patient related and properties of the decision. Nurses reported that communication decisions were the most difficult to make. However, the concept of nurses knowing the patient reduced the level of decision complexity. It is suggested that this has important implications for decision making practices of nurses working in the area of critical care and potentially for patient outcomes.

Crystallographic variant selection in Ti-6Al-4V

Transformation textures in the two-phase alloy Ti–6Al–4V have been studied. Samples were heated into the fully β phase condition and then slow cooled to allow diffusional transformation to α. This produced a microstructure of grain boundary α encircling colonies of Widmanstätten α. Electron backscattered diffraction (EBSD) texture measurements showed that the α texture was markedly sharper than that calculated on a basis of equal variant probability, indicating that significant variant selection was occurring during diffusional transformation. Investigation of the α variants produced across prior β grain boundaries has shown that the selection of variants during transformation is highly dependant on the crystallography of those boundaries. The effect of this crystallographic variant selection on the transformation texture has been modelled.

The cost of recovery protocols in web-based database systems

The cost of recovery protocols is important with respect to system performance during normal operation and failure in terms of overhead, and time taken to recover failed transactions. The cost of recovery protocols for web database systems has not been addressed much. In this paper, we present a quantitative study of cost of recovery protocols. For this purpose, we use an experiment setup to evaluate the performance of two recovery algorithms, namely the, two-phase commit algorithm and log-based algorithm. Our work is a step towards building reliable protocols for web database systems.

Growth performance, feed efficiency and fatty acid composition of juvenile Murray cod, Maccullochella peelii peelii, fed graded levels of canola and linseed oil

n two independent experiments, the effects of dietary inclusion of canola and linseed oil were evaluated in juvenile Murray cod (Maccullochella peelii peelii, Mitchell) over a 112-day period. In each experiment, fish received one of five semi-purified diets in which the dietary fish oil was replaced with canola oil (Experiment A) or linseed oil (Experiment B) in graded increments of 25% (0–100%). Murray cod receiving the graded canola and linseed oil diets ranged in final weight from 112.7 ± 7.6 to 73.8 ± 9.9 g and 93.9 ± 3.6 to 74.6 ± 2.2 g, respectively, and exhibited a negative trend in growth as the inclusion level increased. The fatty acid composition of the fillet and liver were modified extensively to reflect the fatty acid composition of the respective diets. Levels of oleic acid (18:1 n-9) and linoleic acid (18:2 n-6) increased with each level of canola oil inclusion while levels of α-linolenic acid (18:3 n-3) increased with each level of linseed oil inclusion. The concentration of n-3 highly unsaturated fatty acids in the fillet and liver decreased as the amount of vegetable oil in the diets increased. It is shown that the replacement of fish oil with vegetable oils in low fish meal diets for Murray cod is possible to a limited extent. Moreover, this study reaffirms the suggestion for the need to conduct ingredient substitution studies for longer periods and where possible to base the conclusions on regression analysis in addition to anova.

Dynamic softening of ferrite during large strain warm deformation of a plain-carbon steel

The evolution of dynamic ferrite softening in a plain-carbon steel was investigated by torsion tests during warm deformation at 810 °C, in the two-phase (ferrite + austenite) region, and strain rate of 0.1 s−1 with different strains up to 50. The warm flow behaviour and ferrite microstructural parameters, such as grain size, misorientation angle across ferrite/ferrite boundaries, and the fraction of high-angle and low-angle grain/subgrain boundaries were quantified using electron back scatter diffraction. The results show that with increasing strain up to not, vert, similar2, the ferrite grain size and fraction of high-angle boundaries rapidly decrease and the fraction of low-angle boundaries increases. However, these parameters remain approximately unchanged with increasing strain from not, vert, similar2 to 50. The dynamic softening mechanism observed during large strain ferritic deformation is explained by dynamic recovery and continuous dynamic recrystallization.

Diabetes management in patients receiving palliative care

A literature review revealed no evidence-based guidelines specific to managing diabetes in the context of palliative care. The purpose of the current project was to describe the management practices of doctors and nurses caring for people with diabetes and advanced disease. Palliative care doctors, palliative care nurses, endocrinologists, and diabetes nurse educators participated in this study. A two-phase project was undertaken: 1) two focus groups, and 2) a cross-sectional survey using a self-completed questionnaire. The focus group and questionnaire data identified that doctors and nurses used a range of practices and blood glucose testing frequencies to control blood glucose based on experience and not according to a robust evidence base. Implications for practice include the importance of collaboration between diabetes and palliative care specialists, and the need to develop clinical management guidelines.