State dependent asymmetric loss and the consensus forecast of real U.S. GDP growth

It has been well documented that the consensus forecast from surveys of professional forecasters shows a bias that varies over time. In this paper, we examine whether this bias may be due to forecasters having an asymmetric loss function. In contrast to previous research, we account for the time variation in the bias by making the loss function depend on the state of the economy. The asymmetry parameter in the loss function is specified to depend on set state variables which may cause forecaster to intentionally bias their forecasts. We consider both the Lin–Ex and asymmetric power loss functions. For the commonly used Lin–Ex and Lin–Lin loss functions, we show the model can be easily estimated by least squares. We apply our methodology to the consensus forecast of real U.S. GDP growth from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We find that forecast uncertainty has an asymmetric effect on the asymmetry parameter in the loss function dependent upon whether the economy is in expansion or contraction. When the economy is in expansion, forecaster uncertainty is related to an overprediction in the median forecast of real GDP growth. In contrast, when the economy is in contraction, forecaster uncertainty is related to an underprediction in the median forecast of real GDP growth. Our results are robust to the particular loss function that is employed in the analysis.

Minimum-order filter design for partial state estimation of linear systems with multiple time-varying state delays and unknown input delays

Designing delay-dependent functional observers for LTI systems with multiple known time-varying state delays and unknown time-varying input delays is studied. The input delays are arbitrary, but the state delays should be upper-bounded. In addition, two scenarios of slow-varying and fast-varying state delays are investigated. The results of the paper can also be considered as one of the first contributions considering unknown-input functional observer design for linear systems with multiple time-varying state delays. Based on the Lyapunov Krasovskii approach, delay-dependent sufficient conditions of the exponential stability of the observer in each scenario are established in terms of linear matrix inequalities. Because of using effective techniques, such as the descriptor transformation and an advanced weighted integral inequality, the proposed stability criteria can result in larger stability regions compared with the other papers that study functional observers for time-varying delay systems. Furthermore, to help with the design procedure, a genetic algorithm-based scheme is proposed to adjust a weighting matrix in the established linear matrix inequalities. Two numerical examples illustrate the design procedure and demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed observer in each scenario.

An algebraic approach for delay-independent and delay-dependent stability of linear time-delay systems

This paper addresses the problem of asymptotic stability of a linear system with many delay units. A novel algebraic test is proposed for the delay-independent stability of the system, based on the root distribution of the system's characteristic equation. If the system is only stable dependent of delay, the whole stable regions of the system can be perfectly obtained. Two algorithms are derived to examine the delay-independent stability, and to compute the whole stable regions if the system is of delay-dependent stability. These algorithms are computationally efficient and applicable to both certain and uncertain systems. Some illustrative examples demonstrate the validity of the approach.

Hierarchial patterns of invertebrate assemblage structure in stony upland streams change with time and flow permanence

1. Studies in several parts of the world have examined variation in univariate descriptors of macroinvertebrate assemblage structure in perennially flowing stony streams across hierarchies of spatial scale using nested analyses of variance. However, few have investigated whether this spatial variation changes with time or whether these results are representative of habitats other than riffles or of other stream types, such as intermittently flowing streams.

2. We describe patterns in taxon richness and abundance from two sets of samples from stony streams in the Otway Range and the Grampians Range, Victoria, Australia, collected using hierarchical designs. Sampling of riffles was repeated in the Otways, to determine whether spatial patterns were consistent among times. In the Grampians, spatial patterns were compared between intermittent and perennially flowing streams (stream type) by sampling pools.

3. In the Otways streams, most variation in the dependent variables occurred between sample units. Patterns of variation among the other scales (streams, segments, riffles, groups of stones) were not consistent between sampling times, suggesting that they may have little ecological significance.

4. In the Grampians streams, variation in macroinvertebrate taxon richness and abundance differed significantly between replicate streams within each stream type but not between stream types or pools. The largest source of variation in taxon richness was stream type. Little variation occurred among sample units.

5. The pattern of most variation occurring among sample units is robust both to differences in the method of sampling and different dependent variables among studies and increasingly appears to be a property of riffles in stony, perennial upland streams. High variation among sample units (residual variation) limits the explanatory power of linear models and therefore, where samples are from a single sampling time, small but significant components of variation are unlikely to represent features of assemblage structure that will be stable over time.

The dynamics of business ethics: a function of time and culture-cases and models

Examines the construct of ethics in general and of business ethics in particular. Provides a conceptual discussion of the dynamics of ethics in society and the dynamics of business ethics in the marketplace. Ethics and business ethics constructs are dependent upon two principal parameters – time and culture. Eventually, ethics and business ethics are about what is perceived as acceptable or unacceptable at a specific time and in a specific cultural setting. What was ethical yesterday may not be ethical today, and what is ethical today may not be ethical tomorrow. Furthermore, both the company’s view and the views of others may determine what is acceptable or unacceptable in business ethics. This is a social construction that may differ between the parties involved in a specific context. The discussion is supported by two brief and different cases from the automobile industry. This research contributes a set of generic models that examine business ethics dynamics.

Cultural connections across time and place : Wardell's late 19th century Genazzano FCJ College Kew

The Catholic Church was profoundly affected by the 1872 Victorian Education Act, which made education secular, compulsory and free, and led to the withdrawal of state aid to religious schools. In order for the Church to run its own schools, it had to look overseas for help and invited religious teaching orders, such as the Faithful Companions of Jesus (FCJs) to set up schools in Victoria, Australia. In many instances purpose built buildings were designed by architects. William Wardell was well established in private practice in Sydney when he designed the new Convent and School, Kew, Victoria, for the FCJ Sisters, in the late 1880s. Building commenced just before the crash of Marvellous Melbourne. Less than half of the total concept of Wardell’s original plan was built. It opened for business in April 1891. Today this building forms the heart of the contemporary Genazzano FCJ College Kew. Many histories intersect in this commission. The vision for Catholic education in Victoria in the late 19th century is critical. The FCJs charism and their experience of teaching in Europe, in France, England, Ireland, Italy and Switzerland, provides a model for their work in Australia. At this time the importance of architecture to society is made manifest in education and its demands on building: if learning is valued then buildings should reflect this, for public buildings can shape morality. Wardell was trained as a Gothic Revival architect and his building participates in a broader medieval and Gothic tradition. Wardell’s original plan for this late Victorian Gothic style asymmetrical three-storeyed building, was designed to integrate a convent, school, chapel, and dormitories. This paper considers architectural history from diverse perspectives, educational, social, religious, economic and political, recognising the complexity of this project and the people who played a part in its conception and realisation.

Iron-free and iron-saturated bovine lactoferrin inhibit survivin expression and differentially modulate apoptosis in breast cancer

BACKGROUND: Iron binding, naturally occurring protein bovine lactoferrin (bLf) has attracted attention as a safe anti-cancer agent capable of inducing apoptosis. Naturally, bLf exists partially saturated (15-20%) with Fe(3+) however, it has been demonstrated that manipulating the saturation state can enhance bLf's anti-cancer activities. METHODS: Apo-bLf (Fe(3+) free) and Fe-bLf (>90% Fe(3+) Saturated) were therefore, tested in MDA-MB-231 and MCF-7 human breast cancer cells in terms of cytotoxicity, proliferation, migration and invasion. Annexin-V Fluos staining was also employed in addition to apoptotic protein arrays and Western blotting to determine the specific mechanism of bLf-induced apoptosis with a key focus on p53 and inhibitor of apoptosis proteins (IAP), specifically survivin. RESULTS: Apo-bLf induced significantly greater cytotoxicity and reduction in cell proliferation in both cancer cells showing a time and dose dependent effect. Importantly, no cytotoxicity was detected in normal MCF-10-2A cells. Both forms of bLf significantly reduced cell invasion in cancer cells. Key apoptotic molecules including p53, Bcl-2 family proteins, IAP members and their inhibitors were significantly modulated by both forms of bLf, though differentially in each cell line. Most interestingly, both Apo-bLf and Fe-bLf completely inhibited the expression of survivin protein (key IAP), after 48 h at 30 and 40 nM in cancer cells. CONCLUSIONS: The capacity of these forms of bLf to target survivin expression and modulation of apoptosis demonstrates an exciting potential for bLf as an anti-cancer therapeutic in the existing void of survivin inhibitors, with a lack of successful inhibitors in the clinical management of cancer.

Discovering semantics from multiple correlated time series stream

In this paper, we study a challenging problem of mining data generating rules and state transforming rules (i.e., semantics) underneath multiple correlated time series streams. A novel Correlation field-based Semantics Learning Framework (CfSLF) is proposed to learn the semantic. In the framework, we use Hidden Markov Random Field (HMRF) method to model relationship between latent states and observations in multiple correlated time series to learn data generating rules. The transforming rules are learned from corresponding latent state sequence of multiple time series based on Markov chain character. The reusable semantics learned by CfSLF can be fed into various analysis tools, such as prediction or anomaly detection. Moreover, we present two algorithms based on the semantics, which can later be applied to next-n step prediction and anomaly detection. Experiments on real world data sets demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed method. © Springer-Verlag 2013.

Price exhaustion and number preference : time and price confluence in Australian stock prices

Confluence occurs when different trading filters generate signals that point to the same directional move. Using regression analysis, this paper investigates confluence trading signals associated with number preference and price exhaustion, for a sample of Australian stocks. The results show that certain price levels tend to act as psychological barriers, and that price exhaustion signals are a real phenomenon in the Australian stock market. It is shown also that confluence exists in the Australian stock market. Importantly, confluence is associated with price retracements that are of economic and statistical significance, offering profitable trading opportunities. The results suggest that Australian stocks do not follow a random walk.

Real time, perceived time and time online : a review of student experiences of time over thirty years of distance and online education

This paper examines how students use and perceive time when studying in distance education modes and what affects this perception of time and the reality of time. We examine 30 years of student involvement on distance and online education, their comments on both their learning experiences, and the technology requirements of distance education/online learning. Our University has been involved in distance education since its formation in 1974. The online technologies offer increasingly sophisticated and immersive experiences for our students, both on campus and off campus, but many of our students continue to complain of time squeeze, and fail to predict the time it will take them to complete our subjects. We research how the technologies we use for online learning are contributing to this time squeeze perception and the student's "real" time to learn.
Research is drawn from both the Australian Bureau of Statistics and surveys of our students' experiences (we have 32,000 students online, with single online classes of over 1300 students), to examine student use and perceptions of their available time to study and how the technologies used in online learning affect this.

New cutting-planes for the time-and/or precedence-constrained ATSP and directed VRP

In this paper, we introduce five classes of new valid cutting planes for the precedence-constrained (PC) and/or time-window-constrained (TW) Asymmetric Travelling Salesman Problems (ATSPs) and directed Vehicle Routing Problems (VRPs). We show that all five classes of new inequalities are facet-defining for the directed VRP-TW, under reasonable conditions and the assumption that vehicles are identical. Similar proofs can be developed for the VRP-PC. As ATSP-TW and PC-ATSP can be formulated as directed identical-vehicle VRP-TW and PC-VRP, respectively, this provides a link to study the polyhedral combinatorics for the ATSP-TW and PC-ATSP. The first four classes of these new cutting planes are cycle-breaking inequalities that are lifted from the well-known D^-_k and D⁺_k inequalities (see Grötschel and Padberg in Polyhedral theory. The traveling salesman problem: a guided tour of combinatorial optimization, Wiley, New York, 1985). The last class of new cutting planes, the TW ₂ inequalities, are infeasible-path elimination inequalities. Separation of these constraints will also be discussed. We also present prelimanry numerical results to demonstrate the strengh of these new cutting planes.

Do socioeconomic gradients in women's health widen over time and with age?

A population-based study was conducted to investigate changes over time in women's well-being and health service use by socio-economic status and whether these varied by age. Data from 12,328 mid-age women (aged 45–50 years in 1996) and 10,430 older women (aged 70–75 years) from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health were analysed. The main outcome measures were changes in the eight dimensions of the Short Form General Health Survey (SF-36) adjusted for baseline scores, lifestyle and behavioural factors; health care utilisation at Survey 2; and rate of deaths (older cohort only). Cross-sectional analyses showed clear socioeconomic differentials in well-being for both cohorts. Differential changes in health across tertiles of socioeconomic status (SES) were more evident in the mid-age cohort than in the older cohort. For the mid-aged women in the low SES tertile, declines in physical functioning (adjusted mean change of –2.4, standard error (SE) 1.1) and general health perceptions (−1.5, SE 1.1) were larger than the high SES group (physical functioning –0.8 SE 1.1, general health perceptions –0.8 SE 1.2). In the older cohort, changes in SF-36 scores over time were similar for all SES groups but women in the high SES group had lower death rates than women in the low SES group (relative risk: 0.79, 95% confidence interval 0.64–0.98). Findings suggest that SES differentials in physical health seem to widen during women's mid-adult years but narrow in older age. Nevertheless, SES remains an important predictor of health, health service use and mortality in older Australian women.