Interpreting changes in heroin supply in melbourne: droughts, gluts or cycles?

In this Harm Reduction Digest Paul Dietze and John Fitzgerald provide another possible way of understanding what has come to be referred to as Australia's heroin 'drought'. They examine evidence from Melbourne, Victoria and suggest that the apparent downturn in heroin availability in 2000 may, in part, be the result of an end of a heroin 'glut' and that perceptions of this phenomenon may be coloured by the development of more sophisticated indicators of the heroin market. They conclude with claims that the reasons for the reduction in drug consumption and adverse health outcomes, such as those attributed to interdiction, are thus premature.

The culture-based fisheries in small, farmer-managed reservoirs in two provinces of northern Vietnam: an evaluation based on three production cycles

In this paper the results of a study conducted on the culture-based fisheries in small (ranging from 2 to 160 ha), farmer-managed reservoirs in YenBai and ThaiNguyen Provinces in the northern highland region of Vietnam, for the production cycles of 1997/98, 98/99 and 99/00 are presented. The small reservoirs are leased to small farmers by the provincial authorities for fishery activities, and all lessees adopt culture-based fisheries when fingerlings of grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella), silver carp (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix), bighead carp (Aristichthys nobilis), common carp (Cyprinus carpio) and mrigal (Cirrihinus mrigala) are stocked between March and mid-April each year and harvested, using large seine nets, after approximately 11-12 months. The mean yields from reservoirs in YenBai and ThaiNguyen Provinces in 97/98, 98/99 and 99/00 production cycles were 251, 332 and 253, and 331, 372 and 210 kg ha⁻¹ respectively. There were major differences in the fish productivity in the reservoirs in the two Provinces, and in a reservoir between culture cycles. The stocking strategies appeared to be rather ad hoc, being determined by the availability of seed stock and the financial status of the lessees. Accordingly, there was no apparent consistent trend in the improvement of yields from the culture-based fishery practice throughout the growth cycles. The fish yields in reservoirs in each Province were significantly related to reservoir area (exponentially) and to mean weight of stocked fish and conductivity (logarithmically). Of the stocked fish, the highest returns were obtained with mrigal and bighead carp, which collectively contributed > 50% to the harvest. The return from common carp was the lowest. The mean growth rate of grass carp (2.7 g day⁻¹), followed by bighead carp (2.0 g day⁻¹) was the highest in reservoirs in YenBai Province, bighead carp (4.0 g day⁻¹) followed by grass carp (3.2 g day⁻¹) was the highest in ThaiNguyen Province. The seed stocked on average accounted for 65% and 48% of the total operating costs in YenBai and ThaiNguyen Provinces, and the mean cost:benefit ratio of the culture-based fishery in the two Provinces was 0.35 and 0.37 respectively. The culture-based fishery on average contributed about 28% to the gross income of a farmer lessee.

Elucidation of bucephalid parasite life-cycles using mutation scanning analysis

Nucleotide variation in a portion of the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit1 (cox1) gene from asexual stages of bucephalids of southern Australian scallops (Chlamys asperrima, Chlamys bifrons and Pecten fumatus) was investigated using a mutation scanning–sequencing approach. Single-strand conformation polymorphism (SSCP) analysis revealed three main profile types (A, B and C) for parasites isolated from scallops. Sequence analysis revealed that samples represented by profiles B and C had a high degree (97.3%) of sequence similarity, whereas they were ~21% different in sequence from those represented by profile A. These findings suggested that at least two types or species (represented by profile A, or profile B or C) of bucephalid infect scallops, of which both were detected in South Australia, while only one was found in Victoria. The prevalence of bucephalids (and their SSCP haplotypes) appeared to differ among the three species of scallop in South Australia as well as between the two scallop species in Victoria, indicating a degree of host specificity. Adult bucephalids were collected from Eastern Australian Salmon (Arripis trutta), in an attempt to match them with the asexual stages from the scallop hosts. Neither of the two taxa of adult bucephalid (Telorhynchus arripidis and an un-named Telorhynchus species) shared SSCP profiles with the bucephalids from scallops, but were genetically similar, suggesting that the asexual stages from scallops may represent the genus Telorhynchus. This study, which assessed nucleotide sequence variation in a portion of the mitochondrial cox1 gene for bucephalids found in scallops and arripid fish, illustrates the usefulness of the mutation scanning approach to elucidate complex life-cycles of marine parasites.

Common trends and common cycles in per capita GDP : the case of the G7 Countries, 1870-2001

In this paper we analyze per capita incomes of the G7 countries using the common cycles test developed by Vahid and Engle (Journal of Applied Econometrics, 8:341–360, 1993) and extended by Hecq et al. (Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 62:511–532, 2000; Econometric Reviews, 21:273–307, 2002) and the common trend test developed by Johansen (Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12:231–254, 1988). Our main contribution is that we impose the common cycle and common trend restrictions in decomposing the innovations into permanent and transitory components. Our main finding is permanent shocks explain the bulk of the variations in incomes for the G7 countries over short time horizons, and is in sharp contrast to the bulk of the recent literature. We attribute this to the greater forecasting accuracy achieved, which we later confirm through performing a post sample forecasting exercise, from the variance decomposition analysis.

Thermodynamic and kinetic modelling hydrogenation of titanium particles and sheets

Use of hydrogen as a temporary alloying element in titanium alloys is an attractive approach to improve the mechanical properties of the materials, enhance processability and thereby reduce manufacturing costs. In this paper, the hydrogen diffusion process and the phase transformation both between titanium particles and in titanium sheets were computationally simulated to analyze the mechanism of hydrogen diffusion in different phases (α-Ti, β-Ti and TiHx). With the simulation based on the thermodynamics and kinetics, quantitative behaviors of the hydrogen diffusion and the phase transformation were analyzed. The simulation results provide an insight into the diffusion process and improve the fundamental understanding of the mechanism of diffusion and phase transformation.

Economic transition and commercial property cycles in China

Drawn from a recently completed study, this paper aims at a better understanding of commercial property cycles in the transitional economy of China. It examines the behaviour of the property submarket system in China and considers structural changes in the socio-economic system as a primary factor in addressing the research problem. The study suggests that the underlying social and economic structure has greatly determined market behaviour. It finds that radical changes can alter the formal structure (the designed structure) of the market system, including the property market structure, but cannot alter the informal structure (i.e. the emergent structure) at the similar rate. As the study shows, cycles in the commercial property market in the economic transition is largely a key resulting feature of the continuous structural change both at formal and informal levels in a way that is often imbalanced and not always consistently changing together. The same situation also applies to the transformation of inner-city built form, which is featured by a delayed change of physical building stock against the space demand trend that is underpinned by the socio-economic transition. Put simply, there is a supply lag, mainly in the form of changing land use and building stock replacement, against economic change (the business cycle). This affects the level of effective demand for office space and hence becomes a major force in shaping current office cycles.

Understanding property cycles in a residential market

Purpose – This paper aims to review property cycle theory and the relevance of the larger body of knowledge about cycles with reference to the housing market. It also aims to highlight the lack of research into property cycles in the residential sector on a suburb or smaller region basis, as well as the potential for increased knowledge about cycles to assist to avoid housing stress.

Design/methodology/approach – The paper conducts a literature review of previous cycle research and encourages the use of cycle theory. It discusses the established body of knowledge about business cycles and the office market sector, as well as investigating levels of housing affordability and how detailed knowledge about property cycles can assist to decrease housing affordability in residential areas, which will eventually experience a downturn.

Findings – It is argued that an increased level of certainty about cycle behaviour in particular suburbs will give households a higher level of confidence when considering whether and when to enter the market. Property cycle research has the potential to assist low-income homeowners to better understand the characteristics of cycles and associated risks in each residential.

Research limitations/implications – This is a conceptual paper and has conducted a review of cycle research and housing affordability in certain countries. Some areas or countries may be affected to varying degrees by property cycles and levels of housing affordability.

Practical implications – In extended periods of high volatility it is argued that a better understanding of housing cycles will allow more homeowners to avoid negative equity and the stress associated with repossessions. Property cycles are unavoidable although there is typically relatively little information available in the open market about the timing and amplitude of cycles in individual areas.

Originality/value – This paper is unique as it highlights the potential for property cycles to be used to avoid housing stress in the residential market. Traditionally cycle research is used to increase returns and avoid downturns in the office and/or business sectors.

Cycles of genocide, stories of denial : Atom Egoyan's Ararat

This article focuses on Atom Egoyan's Ararat and explores how, through a convoluted narrative structure, Egoyan grapples with denial of the Armenian Genocide and the consequences of those denials for present generations—both Turkish and Armenian—illuminated in the film as an extension of the genocide. Egoyan uses a film-within-a-film to move beyond a popular definition of genocide as mass killing alone and links the understanding of stories, truths, and perspectives in everyday life to the dehumanizing acts of genocide. Employing the philosopher Emmanuel Levinas’ ethical theory of the Other (the ethical) and philosophical understandings of ontology (dehumanization) to illuminate the genocide and its ongoing denial, this article contends that Egoyan's focus on the generations of genocide survivors points to the ethical responsibility to one another that underlies everyday lives and sits at the heart of what is absent in the acts of genocide.

Are business cycles stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend? empirical evidence from 79 developing countries

There is a large literature that tests the univariate time series properties of the real output series following the seminal work of Nelson and Plosser (1982). Whether or not real output is characterized by a unit root process has important implications. A unit root in real output, for instance, is inconsistent with the notion that business cycles are stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend. In this paper, we investigate the univariate time series properties of real output for 79 developing countries using the conventional augmented Dickey and Fuller (1979) unit root test, the Zivot and Andrews’ (1992) one structural break unit root test, and the Lumsdaine and Papell (1997) two structural breaks unit root test. Our main finding is that, for 40 countries, real output is stationary around a trend. This indicates that business cycles are stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend for only 51% of the developing countries in our sample.